SB: $27.37 (Hero)
I haven't posted any hands for some time, but this spot I think is fairly interesting and one I'm still a bit unsure what to do.
I'm playing some 25 Zoom from time to time to test some new lines and to see how the games develop (have the regs started folding less blinds etc), but still try to play some solid poker :)
Villain is a tightish reg I used to play at 100PL about a year ago, 22/15/8 3bet BvB 15%, however he folds 55% over my older sample so I will be stealing pretty wide still. The hands in the 3bet range range seemed pretty standard, maybe slightly too many KKxx, but other than that it has pretty good board coverage without getting out of hand.
Flop I think is fairly standard, I generally have a very low xr frequency because there is no huge merit in protection when we have a set and we also want to c/c a lot of hands here such as pair+gs or FDs without a pair, so we dont wanna make our range too weak starting on the flop.
Turn I think is extremly interesting, it should be definitely a better card for his range and one he should be playing quite agressive, so there should be very little incentive for us to be leading this turn, however it doesnt mean that we should never be leading the turn and I think this hand fits quite well into the leadingrange, blocking a Q and having at least 30+% against pretty much any possible hand.
Would like to hear your guys opinion on that spot, what you think about the turnlead (I think the sizing choise there should be pretty clear :) ), and how you would continue against the (somewhat expected) potbet and this SPR, given that we have pretty much 0 nutouts but pretty OK equity in the pot.
I'm obviously gonna run some numbers in PJ myself, as I dont think it's a clear x/shove or x/call despite having 2 FDs, and also how we are performing after a lead, but feel free to run some numbers yourself :)