Thin value bet (minraise) on river w 4th nuts on paired flush board

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Thin value bet (minraise) on river w 4th nuts on paired flush board

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) MP: $62.81
CO: $23.81
BN: $30.04 (Hero)
SB: $111.57
BB: $41.63
UTG: $17.86
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with Q 2 Q J
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $1.00, BB folds, UTG calls $0.85
Flop ($3.55) 7 K K
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.70, SB calls $1.70, UTG folds
Turn ($6.95) 7 K K 2
SB checks, Hero checks
River ($6.95) 7 K K 2 Q
SB bets $6.65, Hero raises to $13.30, SB raises to $46.55, Hero calls $13.94 and is all in

Bad river call at the end. My plan was to raise / fold but my mind force my to call. It would have been the right moment to make a few min. brake from playing.

I do strongly believe a minraise we could get Villain (56/23/15) to call his whole leading range range -> NF+

I did use the Pokerjuice Tool - Shove vs SOR. The EV of these play would be +1,7$.
If he only calls w 22+ than the raise cost us 5,28$
If he was leading 22+ in the first place, which should be more accurate as he was potting on the river than we would lost 15$.

Regarding to low stakes:
Can we expect villain to lead pot with NF+ and get him to call his whole range?
Or is it more likely to face a min. 22+ pot lead on the river?


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