UTG - $35 Roughly 55/30 over 1-2 orbits
Btn - $62 (Hero) Ad Qh 9h Jc
BB - $50 - Roughly 50/18 over 2-3 orbits
UTG raises to $1.75, Hero calls btn, BB calls
Flop ($5.37) Jd 9d 4s
BB checks, UTG checks, Btn bets $3.86, BB calls.
Turn ($13.09) 5d
BB checks, Hero???
Preflop my play could be a little questionable. I played this hand yesterday and don't remember the exact stats and forgot to take a picture (my laptop with hand converter software is getting repaired. Doing my best taking pictures of replayer). Utg seemed to have a loose range, and both blinds seemed like recreational players where I could play my position well. Maybe this hand is just a fold though without the A high suit. I know if I had the J high suit, I would snap fold preflop. Even if it is a bad preflop call, I think the theme of the hand postflop is interesting.
My main question is what are the strongest made hands in Hero's range with the single NF blocker that Hero should start bluffing with on the turn here? Villain defends 3-way vs my flop c-bet OOP, so I know his range is probably strong here. He probably has quite a few weak flushes with a pair+gs or medium flushes with the K high flush or Q high flush. I block J9xx with my hand but he probably is weighted more towards hands like KQT9, QT98, KJT8. I guess there is a lot more combos of single suit hands like this that don't necessarily have 2 diamonds, but I feel like villain could have a lot of basically every K high diamonds and Q high diamonds hands in his range, and all the low ones that have other components. Thinking about it rationally, my guess would be his range is like 50-66% flushes on this turn and 33-50% pair+wrap hands. From a game theory perspective, I imagine if I bluff this hand, I would be theoretically over bluffing. But, I don't like the idea of checking back where he could auto bluff his missed wrap hands. I guess I'm giving up the pot if he bets because I would assume the population maybe only bluffs the river 50% of the time, and villain could potentially check a weak two pair that doesn't have much showdown instead of bluffing (like 95). I also, have the NF blocker, so its possible he could even fold the K high flush on the river to a pot bet (maybe a 50% freq). Probably the Q high one at a 50-75% frequency. And probably low flushes at a 70-90% freq. Do you think I am overestimating my fold equity, or do you think I'm about right?
What do you guys think about this spot?