I think I'd call flop. You have a handful of clean outs but, more importantly, villain will check a lot to you on turn allowing you to get to showdown when you improve a little and bluff when you don't.
Feb. 25, 2017 | 11:21 a.m.
JJ hand I fold the turn just because of the sizing.
Plan on flop is call 2 decide on the river.
That turn sizing just screams I have big hand and am betting big for protection and value.
It's setting up a river shove that should have very little fold equity because of shallow stacks so it removes almost all air considering firing 3 barrels from villain's range.
Just my experience vs fish or bad-ish regs in these spots.
The nut flush hand on the paired board I struggle to fold to a rec without a specific read.
Tons of recs aren't thinking about your range it's like "I called twice with my fd and now hit,
I is shove for sure."
Maybe a few shove JK.
Others would shove all their sets on the flop.
You are getting nearly 4 to 1 on the call. I think you can be good here like 23% of the time to make the call +ev.
Good luck with making this your job.
Try to keep a good life balance by seeing friends and develop a hobby that helps you to relax outside of poker.
Maybe poker used to be your hobby, now it's your main focus.
If you can find that good balance when you're running bad (which you will) your whole life doesn't suck because poker is such a huge part of it.
All the best.
Jan. 10, 2016 | 9:42 p.m.
It's quite close but nice hand I think.
I count about 19 value combos and getting better than 2 to 1 on the river.
Can you count like 9 bluff combos to make the call +EV.
Hard to see this villain showing up with enough bluffs here I think.
Jan. 9, 2016 | 11:59 a.m.
I'm just talking about your overall strategy.
Do you want to go 8.5 bb oop with your value hands?
How about your bluffs?
I do think there will be tons of villains who will call wider in position vs 8.5bb than say 11bb.
Jan. 9, 2016 | 11:44 a.m.
Villain is 26/23 over about 200.
100 % RFI from sb over 7 opportunities.
I cb on the flop to keep my range uncapped considering all my backdoors.
My plan is to barrel off turn and most rivers on any turns that improve my equity, on the ones that don't I check back trying to get to showdown.
I don't think overbluffing rivers is a problem as I check back a lot of turns and I have a clear range advantage on this board.
Thoughts on my line and the logic behind it would be greatly appreciated.
Jan. 9, 2016 | 11:34 a.m.
calling his 3 bet on flop is standard to me... i keep worst hands in
his range like draws...
Strongly consider 3 betting flop for fat value.
Villain has like 3 combos of JJ that you lose to.
Worse hands that continue 9 combos of KJ, plus QT, spades and maybe others.
The fact that the flop is 3 way not hu skews villain's xr range a bit towards these hands that continue rather than random raise once and give up hands.
I'd need a strong reason to believe villain is raising too much air on the flop and barreling off too much to want to flat flop here.
Jan. 8, 2016 | 10:23 a.m.
Villain is 24/19 over a small sample.
Turn play is questionable as I may lose value against 8x type hands.
Think villains are auto-stabbing with so much of their range that this can be very good though.
At higher stakes on the river I may have to worry about villains turning their weak sdv in to a bluff.
Here I expect all of that stuff to check behind all the time and it's hard to see how villain can have much air.
Thoughts on any street very welcome.
Jan. 7, 2016 | 6:32 p.m.
Would you ever consider checking back the J83 flop?
Yes we have no sdv but we can call a bet on a lot of turns ( anything from a 4 to a T and any diamond? ). We can take it down with a delay cb on high cards if he checks again.
Just a few thoughts, I'm still learning and cb is probably super standard.
Thanks for the videos.
Jan. 2, 2016 | 10:45 a.m.
I really enjoyed this format, great content also.
I'm really unsure about the Q8 check raise on the flop with no re-draw.
You're flipping at best when you get it in on the flop vs most player's ranges.
Also you're not pushing that much equity vs a floating range, stacks are awkward on the turn and you're oop when so many cards change the board dramatically.
Seems like most turns will be a nightmare to play.
For instance K looks like a great card but you still have to bet/fold even though hands you're ahead of can be semi-bluffing on that turn.
Only benefit of the xr I can see is you fold out some hands with decent equity, but a lead would accomplish the same thing.
I think I prefer a check-call, a lead or a check-raise pot to go with it on most turns rather than the small check-raise.
I would love to hear thoughts from Robin or anyone else on this hand.
Nov. 15, 2015 | 2:59 p.m.
Hi all, I'd like to post a hand history or two but am facing "Invalid Hand" errors when trying to post.
I exported my histories from Hold Em Manager.
If any one could help me out with this I'd appreciate it.
An example raw hand is below...
Hand History for Game 14610712682
$0.10/$0.25 USD fastforward NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, June 07, 07:27:57 EDT 2015
Table Bolt 3 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6/6
Seat 5: PremierShipped ( $80.51 USD )
Seat 1: Sellen ( $13.10 USD )
Seat 3: Subzero2015 ( $23.15 USD )
Seat 2: bowie99 ( $27.78 USD )
Seat 6: coniy ( $27.11 USD )
Seat 4: peixvela ( $25 USD )
bowie99 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Subzero2015 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to PremierShipped [ Ad As ]
PremierShipped raises [$0.75 USD]
Subzero2015 calls [$0.50 USD]
* Dealing Flop * [ 4d, Jd, Jc ]
PremierShipped bets [$1 USD]
Subzero2015 raises [$2 USD]
PremierShipped calls [$1 USD]
* Dealing Turn * [ 3c ]
Subzero2015 bets [$3.99 USD]
PremierShipped will be using their time bank for this hand.
Subzero2015 does not show cards.
Subzero2015 wins $9.31 USD
June 7, 2015 | 12:40 p.m.
Fantastic series Espen really enjoying it!
One thing you guys didn't cover discussing European's river shove is ICM / tournament dynamics as a whole.
While it may be a profitable shove in a vacuum, if he gives up there he's still chip leader by 10bb and maintains his ability to apply loads of pressure and steal liberally which is a super +EV situation for him.
When he gets picked off he's down to equal 3rd position with double the chips of the short stack and is just totally handcuffed in terms of profitable spots. On the other hand when he gets folds it really doesn't change his overall situation all that much.
I'm curious to know how much weight you would give to the above logic in villain's spot?
I'd imagine it might hold enough weight to change a slightly profitable bluff shove in to a check back give up. Thoughts?