Is this still open? One of my horses (mid stakes winner) is interested in joining a study group.
June 30, 2016 | 12:42 a.m.
"I agree that we're not betting very many 7x on flop, and I think the preferred ones to bet are suited, connect and/or with an overcard."
Would it not be preferable to check back our suited 7x with backdoors, so that calling turn leads becomes far more profitable for us + our hand doesn't need as much protection? This also allows us to bet our backdoors with little sd value, and still have them in our range by the river when we check back flop.
Aug. 19, 2015 | 3:49 p.m.
In the opening hand, I'm presuming you're playing a mixed strat with 78s. What sort of frequency do you think you're squeezing as opposed to flatting? Are you more likely to raise the sq frequency the deeper the effective stacks get, and would your strat follow a similar pattern vs a single hj open and no cold call?
Cheers for another great vid!
Aug. 19, 2015 | 1:53 p.m.
This is all extremely rough, based on a lot of estimations, and doesn't even begin to cover a lot of possibilities in the hand like getting raised on an earlier street or formulating a river 3 betting strategy. But I wasn't particularly happy with how I played a hand yesterday, so thought I'd put in some time building a rough idea of what a good betting range would look like on this board, and thought I'd share to see if anyone had any thoughts on where it could be improved or adjusted.
Let's assume V is a GTO bot and we are 300bb deep effective.
We open UTG+2, V calls bttn, and blinds fold.
On a board this dry, I imagine our CB sizing would want to be on the smaller side (1/2 to 1/3), and we'll be Cbetting at least once at a reasonably high frequency. We will CB the top of our range AK, A5s, and 55 100% of the time and our check call range would consist of a mixture of pocket pairs, and some aces with maybe a quarter of AQ's and a progressively higher percentage of AJ's ATs's, A9s's and any other random AXs's we decide to open. The rest of the Ax and pocket pairs will be Cbet along with a wide range of random bluffs. Our x/f range will consist mainly of mid suited connectors with no bdfd, and we will have no x/r range.
As our continuing range will now be stronger, we can increase our CB size to 60-70% pot. We will continue to cb the top of our range at 100% which as well as all combos of AK/A5s and 55, now includes some combos of 88 if we decided to CB it on the flop, and the occasional A8s if we decided to open pre, and then cb. Our choice to CB over x/c will now become completely linear based, and we will never be check-calling a hand better than a hand that we would cb for value. We will CB something like 50% of the AQ's we cb flop with, and a quarter of AJ's, choosing to check call the rest, and the rest of our aces along with a small percentage of KK/ QQ/ JJ. I would argue that this is a spot where there is no need to have any bluffs due to the fact we'd be bluffing with no equity. The only bluff that would really make much sense would be 56s/ 57s if we decided to open it, and for this to be profitable we would probably need a split river sizing in which we'd bet something like 80-120% of pot which we'd balance with some combos from the top of our range. We will again have no x/r range.
The river is clearly the most difficult and complex to play. This is also where it becomes more difficult to keep assuming V as a GTO bot, as in play it is rare for players to have many hands they're turning into bluffs here. As mentioned in the turn play, if we do have a bluffing range here, then I think there is a strong argument to have a split sized betting range, but we'll continue without a bluffing range for now. So now assuming we have CB the turn, we have something like 15% of all possible AJ combos, a small % of possible 88 and A8s combos and all possible combos of 55 and A5s which we will again bet 100% of the time. We also have all combos of AK, which we may decide to bet ~50% of the time and check call the other half of the time. Again as our cbetting range gets stronger we can go slightly bigger towards a 75% sizing. We have around a third of AQ combos (which has now become the bottom of our range) that we will never bet, and check call around 25% of the time and check fold the rest of the time facing say a 70-80% pot bet size. We would be check calling 100% of AQ's and a small percentage of ATs's if we had decided to check call these on the turn, check folding anything worse. If we CB 75% pot, and are raised 2.7x our bet, then we will need to defend around the top 54% of our range to remain unexploitable. The top 54% of our range that I laid out for betting the river here would be 1 combo of AJ, 1/2 combo of A8s, 1.5 of A5s, 1 of 88 and half of the 3 combos of 55, folding the other 50% of 55 combos, and all 3 combos of AK. The river is also the first time that we will need to incorporate a check raising range, as we now have some combos of AJ and JJ that we check/ called turn with and will most likely want to x/r river with now. We will also have some 88 and A8s, that we have check called flop and turn with and will now want to check raise. To balance this I imagine we will x/r a hand like A9/7s, as KK/QQ/ATs/AQ all block hands that V is likely to have in his bet/ fold range.
Nov. 13, 2014 | 5:14 p.m.
aha, it was definitely 32k :)
Nov. 13, 2014 | 3:24 p.m.
Blinds are 500/1k. I have 64k, Ike covers.
I was moved to the table maybe 3 or 4 orbits before, have no perceived image to talk of, and we have no history together.
I open button to 2.1k with 22, Ike defends in the BB.
Ike checks, I bet 2.3k, Ike raises to 7.5k, I call.
Ike bets 14k, I call.
Ike bets 32k... (we have ~40k total at this point)
I would be particularly interested to hear thoughts on Ike's bluff x/r range on this flop, and continuing range on turn and river. The bottom of his value and continuing range on flop through to river. And whether or not this may be a situation where there are better hands to bluff catch with that are worse than 22 like AXc.
Nov. 13, 2014 | 1:31 p.m.
There's just not many hands that I'm calling utg-co that will not have enough showdown value to just check back flop (which AxJc does), but have enough equity for me to start betting. TJs may be one hand that plays well by betting if I call pre, but that gets there on the turn. I dont have any non-pair Acx apart from AcJx. I probably won't barrel off ATs/AJs, pocket pairs or turn a Q into a bluff. So that pretty much just leaves AJo with a club as a real bluffing range.
After reading this back I guess I need to include some ATs/AJs as well, especially as I'll be 3betting or folding AJo at a high % pre. None the less, it's definitely a spot where we'll be more weighted to value hands than the avg bet vs missed cb spot.
July 27, 2014 | 3:18 p.m.
Poker Stars $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -
Hero (CO): $1381.32
Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is CO with Ad Jc
UTG raises to $30, 1 fold, Hero calls $30, 3 folds
Flop: ($75.00) Qc Kc 7c (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $46.80, UTG calls $46.80
Turn: ($168.60) 9s (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $120, UTG calls $120
River: ($408.60) 2c (2 players)
V is playing 35/27, UTG open at 20%, Cbet at 50%
Preflop I think call/fold/3b are all probably OK. Don't love the call necessarily, but don't mind it against such a wide open.OTF checking seems fine but I don't think we have a great deal of SD value with AJ hi, so decided to start betting, with the likely intention to fire off.
OTT we don't have too many bluffs in our range, and V is likely somewhat capped, so AxJc seems like a good bet and likely triple barrel. It's also good for balance in a spot where we're so value heavy.
OTR is close between a small value bet and a check IMO. Interested to see what people think?
July 25, 2014 | 5:37 p.m.
Assuming the opener is always folding (which depending on the fish, sometimes may actually call worse), we will have around 35% equity when the reg calls. This means we lose around $50 when called, and make $54 when he folds. So we need folds ~50% of the time to break even.
With the fish opening and the reg capped oop in sb, this is a far more attractive squeeze spot than avg, so we'd expect the squeeze freq to be higher than 5.4 here. The regs 3b/call range makes up 3.3% assuming JJ+ AQs+ AK+, and I'd go as far to say we can give him 4% bluffs. So this would mean shoving TT should show a small profit. I'm not entirely sure of the comparative EV of flatting, but this definitely seems fine.
July 25, 2014 | 4:27 p.m.
Against specific villains I have no problem just making an exploitative fold on the turn, but generally I'd probably be calling twice. You're going to be betting this turn pretty wide, so I guess we should probably defend AQ. It's nice that the turn/ river doesn't block any nut fd's too.
May 15, 2014 | 1:59 p.m.
There are surely frequent spots where 4b calling, 4b folding or folding all seem like questionable lines, and calling makes the most sense. So would it not be better to build a range that can play well, than to have no cold call range at all?
April 4, 2014 | 1:12 p.m.
Not sure this is an adequate answer. 4b shoving is profitable, but so is flatting the 3b. AK is not a hand you want to have in your 4b/ folding range, and you have some fundamental pre-flop issues if it is.
April 2, 2014 | 12:49 p.m.
I know that in Andrew Seidmen's 'Easy Game' he talked about taking some marginally sup-optimal spots if there was a fish at your table sitting deep. But this was in a 100bb cash game setting, where obviously your ability to rebuy is key. I'm not sure it would apply to a tournament, as the value lost from busting out and not being able to play the fish at all any more must outweigh the value gained from just being deeper with the fish. I don't see much application for this at all in tournamaments.
March 31, 2014 | 3:48 a.m.
I often find, particularly when deep in high stakes live MTTs, that I'm battling with myself over either taking lines I believe to be optimal (taking ICM into consideration) or taking lower variance lines that may diverge from this.
I think most people would agree if you were taking a shot in a good live cash game for 5x your normal stake you may tighten up and not take every spot you would at your regular stake. A determinant for BRM is certainly player style dependant (this is mainly in a live setting where everyone playing similar GTO styles isn't so predominant), so if adjusting your style of play means you're now rolled for a shot at a good game then that certainly seems like the optimal move.
So when you're say final 50/500 in a big MTT that is also a shot, you're effectively playing for 10+x your normal stake. In this situation, taking lower variance lines to minimise huge equity swings you're not otherwise rolled to take also seems reasonable. I know there's a lot of factors that come into these decisions, like your skill edge over the remaining field.. But I mean could it ever be correct for 2 players of exactly the same skill level to take two different lines in the same spot based on their bankrolls? Or the same player to take two different lines in the same spot based on the stage of the tournament and the equity at stake? Say an aggro SB opens to 2.5x and you have 30bb in the BB with 77. The chip EV including ICM considerations, may say it's marginally optimal to 3b induce. However the lowest variance line which may not cost you too much value would be just to shove. Would it ever be correct to take one line in an early stage of a tournament, and a different one later in a tournament, or differing ones based on our bankroll?
It's likely that this is all nonsense as BRM affecting how you should play just seems wrong, but it is certainly something that feels extremely natural in-play, so thought I would entertain the idea.
March 21, 2014 | 10:33 p.m.
Against most regs I'd be making a lot of exploitative folds when raised on monotone boards, as they're normally weighted to having it. Against these players I probably wouldn't have a 3b range unless we just want to exploit them by shoving the top of our range. Against a reg that's balancing here, if we want a 3betting range otf at 100bb, then I'd have all combos of KdXx, and then around half that number of non-nut flushes. As it gets deeper (like your example), I would just start increasing the proportion of non-nut flushes slightly. My c-betting range is going to depend massively on the reg too.. I wouldn't be comfortable cb folding AQ to someone who has a balanced raising range here, but bet/folding AQ against certain regs exploitatively is fine.
As V, I believe I would be flatting my entire range IP there.
March 17, 2014 | 6:19 p.m.
I personally don't mind limping in any spot if a super LAGGY fish is on my left. You don't need to worry too much about having a balanced limping strategy if the game is revolving round this one guy, you're simply just adjusting to avoid bloated pots. But depending on how big he's 3-betting I do probably prefer raising pre here. As played I think it's probably just a call to re-evaluate later. There's no reason to raise, and I think our hand is too good to fold right now.. although some more info on the sort of stuff he's shown down in big pots would be good. 5's I'd probably play the same, but would be slightly less inclined to fold on later streets. 8's is close I think; Getting it in is probably fine, but if the fish likes to barrel as you said, then maybe just flat and see how the turn plays still.
March 17, 2014 | 3:48 p.m.
Pretty funny to see people on here actually entertaining the idea that putting in 40% of our stack to fold kings pre is an acceptable line. This is just button clicking at its finest. I can barely understand why you 4bet if you're not prepared to get it in, let alone 6bet. I also don't see why you think you'll find value from a pro who has position on you with an incredibly tight continuing range as opposed to the 'older guy' that opened who is far more likely to make mistakes, that you've now forced to fold. I'm also guessing, as you can't care too much about balance, you're pretty much at the bottom of your range here which is now effectively face up. Just flat the 3b. I think a 4b range here of AA and a few combos of A5s or something similar is fine. You can possibly include KK and a couple more bluffs, but if so, ffs don't fold.
March 6, 2014 | 7:37 a.m.
Full Tilt, 20,000/40,000 blinds, 5,000 ante No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
MP3: 2,318,863 (58 bb)
CO: 898,269 (22.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): 1,159,836 (29 bb)
SB: 1,006,215 (25.2 bb)
BB: 1,445,648 (36.1 bb)
MP1: 792,853 (19.8 bb)
MP2: 1,078,316 (27 bb)
Preflop Hero is BTN with K:spade: J:spade:
4 folds, Hero raises to 80,000, SB raises to 198,465, BB folds, Hero raises to 1,154,836 and is all-in
V seems like a reg, playing 21/17 and has 3b at 17% over 53 hands.
3 hands before this one I opened utg, V 3b utg+1, I made a small 4b and V folded.
Feb. 17, 2014 | 9:28 p.m.
Is folding river really an option? AJ is very close to the top of our range here (bar the odd flush combo), and unless you've got some sort of read where we can make an exploitative fold, I think we have to call vs most good thinking 5knl regs. We're getting 3/1 and there are definitely bluff combos he can have like AhKx ThTx. Looks like a clear call to me.
Jan. 19, 2014 | 3:09 p.m.
V has been a winning reg in these games and bigger ones for many years as far as I'm aware. I have seen him willing to commit stacks in marginal spots before (although nothing too similar to this one). I'm sure he's not flawless in giving away subtle timing/ physical tells but he's definitely at a point where I can't pick anything up from him. What would a river timing tell be in this spot anyway? A quick shove = strength, and vica versa?
Jan. 15, 2014 | 5:45 p.m.
The more I think about it, the more I think it's a call. I can take TT/JJ out of his range pretty comfortably, and be confident he never has worse for value, but I do think that he's capable of having some bluffs in this spot (although I wouldn't expect him to be barreling turn with no equity). Even if he has all AA/KK combos + some random 6's for value, and then half those combos as bluffs, it is a clear call.
But as a general, is it a mistake to be calling turn to fold this river against a capable reg?
Jan. 15, 2014 | 12:02 p.m.
V is a good capable reg, who I've played a lot with.
The game is playing 6/7 handed at this point. I have £3k, V has me covered.
V opens utg+1 to £35, it folds round to me in the BB, I 3b to £120 with QQ, V 4b's to £300, I call
(This was V's 2nd or 3rd 4b in this game alone, although I couldn't recall any of his 4b pots going to showdown. I had been 3betting somewhat actively)
I check, V bets £400, I call
Turn: 6c (brings flush draw)
I check, V bets £875, I call
I check, V shoves (for around £1.5k effective), I fold.
My thoughts afterwards are that I should have called off on the river, and I'm folding too much if I don't. I do however have a lot of low-mid suited connecters in my range here, and occasionally KK, so I'm not folding the top of my range by folding QQ.
Should I be really making my mind up on the turn here?
Flatting is obviously an option pre to save these spots, which I will do sometimes, but partly due to the game being shorter I decided to 3b this time.
Jan. 14, 2014 | 1:22 p.m.
OK thank you.
So is my working here correct?
290/425 = .68
V needs me to fold 68% of the time to break-even.
I need to be calling the top 32% of my range so V can't make a profit bluff-shoving.
My range consists of:
88 = 1 combo
22, KK, TT = 9 combos
AA = 4 combos
All KJ, KQ, AK = 36 combos
+ Lets say 20 bluff combos of AQ/ AJ/ JQ
= 70 combos.
If I need to call 32% of my range, then that makes 22 combos.
That includes all sets/quads/aces + I should be calling AK two thirds of the time?