Lenny Seward's avatar

Lenny Seward

159 points

Hand History | Lenny Seward posted in PLO: 10PLO: River X/R Bluff
SB: $16.80 (Hero)
BB: $12.71
HJ: $12.53
CO: $12.36
BN: $5.13
Hero: Table captain; TAG that bluffs in good spots, but mainly value betting thin; 26/21, AF 3.6
Villain: TAG, losing player over 2.8k hands; AF 3.8,; Mainly value betting a lot; plays weak made hands too strong
Flop ($0.40) 5 2 8 (4 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.40, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $0.40
Preflop: CO, BTN, Hero (T99s6s) and Villain all limp; Probably a fold, but these guys were bad and I could value bet any set here easily and get paid off. I also have some connectivity.

Flop: BB is playing pretty tight, but he has 100% of hands here since he checked his option. He can definitely have all the sets, top two, etc. I don't think he'd donk naked NFD here, but he could have As:ss+pair. However, I think with it being 4-way, he is weighted way more toward made hands. After everybody folds I call because of my read that he is weighted toward made hands and much less FD's. I also have my gutter which has very good implied odds versus this guy.
Turn ($1.20) J (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90
Nothing else to do but X/C here. A X/R just gets action when we're behind and X/F is too weak given that I have my raw ~30% versus 8876cc type hands and good implied odds when I hit my straight.
River ($3.00) 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2.20, Hero raises to $4.95, BB calls $2.75
Here is where it gets interesting. Villain and I do not have any history that I can think of, so he is most definitely value betting his sets OTR for his vacuum play against this player pool. Knowing that he can easily have sets and some NFD+pair that he has to bluff with OTR, I go for a small value type X/R OTR as a bluff to make him fold a set/two pair. It's also VERY rare that he has a straight here. I picked this sizing because in his eyes (IMO) this isn't ever a bluff without any history.
Final Pot
Hero has 9 T 6 9 BB has 3 6 4 K BB wins $12.04
He ends having a very strange hand for his actions. I took a note immediately that he semi-bluffs aggressively with these weak of draws. Let me know what you think, especially about the river X/R. Thanks!

April 4, 2013 | 4:18 p.m.

March 21, 2013 | 10:39 p.m.

Post | Lenny Seward posted in Chatter: Love Days Like This... <3 PLO
: ) Strong mental game, I have.

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8520/8571655445_4c6dda1be4_h.jpg

March 19, 2013 | 6:13 p.m.

SB: $10
BB: $5.04
UTG: $4.05
HJ: $15.87
CO: $5.30
BN: $10 (Hero)
BB: LAG/Maniac, 708 hands, 3Betting 21% vs. BTN, AF of 2.5
Hero: TAG, but loose in CO/BTN (48% total LP open)
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K K 3 6
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.28, SB folds, BB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $1.85, BB calls $1.25
He's 3Betting wide, so I 4Bet for value.
Flop ($4.13) J A 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
No reason betting since he has a lot of A*** hands.
Turn ($4.13) A (2 Players)
Hero calls $3.19
I know I said he has a lot of A*** hands, but this reduces the amount of A*** he has. Question is whether to call turn or not. I went ahead and called after he shoved. I think he can be shoving a wide range of hands; any decent flush draw, J, J9, and, of course, value hands. Obviously his shove has many more bluffs, than if he had called my shove. What do you think? Thanks.
River ($7.32) Q (2 Players)
Final Pot
BB has Q T T A Hero has K K 3 6 BB wins $9.63

March 19, 2013 | 6 p.m.

Yes. Definitely shove turn.

March 12, 2013 | 5:23 p.m.

Villain folded.

March 8, 2013 | 1:46 p.m.

+1

Also, bettors whose only size is pot tend to be more aggressive, so I'd just play tighter, ABC, and no messing around. Then when you do have a hand IP, slow play and let him pot the turn so you can get all in. OOP, just balance all the times you'll be X/F by X/R your strong hands. After he sees you X/R a few nutty hands you can start working semi-bluffs into your X/R range.

March 8, 2013 | 1:28 p.m.

How often are you defending your BB vs. LP Steal? Also, what is villain's Raise First In from CO?

As played, I think it's fine. You block the nut wrap, and he probably expects you to attack these type of boards often, so his 3Bet is most likely a re-bluff given that if he had a strong enough hand that he'd want to get in it raises the chances of you (semi) bluffing more. Also, besides 876 with a BDFD, there are no other draws that you are X/R/4B getting it in with, which makes me believe he'd want you to continue bluffing turn if he had a hand strong enough to get in OTF. This is also a very easy board to slow play in villain's shoes because the only bad turns are an 8, 7, or 6. Board pairings aren't even that bad because you're not going to have many sets. You'd probably only have sets with double paired hands, and likely would've 3Bet those pre. I also think if he had AA/KK he'd probably just call the X/R and then get it in on brick turns, or turns where he picks up equity that aren't an 8, 7, or 6.

March 8, 2013 | 1:23 p.m.

Bet bigger OTF, X/Decide OTT.

March 7, 2013 | 11:49 p.m.

Comment | Lenny Seward commented on What to do part 1
On my iPhone, so I'll keep it short and reply more thoroughly later, but I would've gone for a X/ R OTF.

March 7, 2013 | 11:45 p.m.

Those reads are all perfect reasons to CBet turn. "Gives up with weak hands OTT", perfect! Even a hand as weak as 8653r has 37.5% against us.

8653r Equity- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Kh+3h+2s+7s&g=oh&h1=Jd+Kd+9d+Ad&h2=8653%3Awxyz&s=generic

March 7, 2013 | 5:04 p.m.

March 7, 2013 | 5 p.m.

Agree with the river value bet, but I'd bet bigger. You're close to/at the bottom of your value-betting range given that you won't have many 5's after 3Betting, and you would probably check to SD/induce with AA. I think his calling range is pretty elastic since he most likely has a bluff catcher (5/KJ, KT/K, T, or J w/ clubs), and you rep more busted FD's/nuts-or-air OTR with a bigger bet. He's not going to have better here often, you block a ton of boats (as said above), and only AQ I see him with is AQcc.

March 6, 2013 | 6:09 p.m.

Look how your equity plummets on a brick turn- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jd+9c+3d+2s&g=oh&h1=Ad+As+Th+6d&h2=%28JJ%2C+99%29%3A37%256h%404%2C+%2833%2C+J9%29%3A37%256h%403%2C+%28KQJT%3Add%2C+KQT%3Add%29%3A37%256h%401&s=generic

March 6, 2013 | 5:55 p.m.

I would definitely just call here. You block one of the main semi-bluffs he can have which weights him more towards made hands. A guy with 32% flop aggression is not B/3B AI with TP+Wrap without a FD, and he might not even with a FD. I think we run into JJ/99 here a ton. He is fairly loose VPIP-wise, which means he can definitely have JJ/99 and probably even 33. I think your up against a range that looks more like this (see below), so I'd just call and see a turn. You need 47.97% to get it in OTF, and I don't think you have any FE.

http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jd+9c+3d&g=oh&h1=Ad+As+Th+6d&h2=%28JJ%2C+99%29%3A37%256h%404%2C+%2833%2C+J9%29%3A37%256h%403%2C+%28KQJT%3Add%2C+KQT%3Add%29%3A37%256h%401&s=generic

March 6, 2013 | 5:54 p.m.

I wouldn't mind three barreling here if the flop had a FD or a better SD, but given that it doesn't have any strong draws, he has T+ pretty often. You also don't block any value hands that he could have. Even though he has an extremely low WTSD, he has shown that he has a hand he deems strong enough to call two streets with, which means the T hits his range more often than some other higher WTSD players.

March 6, 2013 | 5:42 p.m.

I would bet again. No draws completed, and this is a board where villains will not have a lot of strong hands. Any stats/reads on villain?

March 6, 2013 | 5:36 p.m.

"I think it might place stuff like AK84ds above like 9876ds which is clearly absurd"

It does. AxKy8x4y is a top 9% hand and 9x8y7x6y is a top 21% hand.

March 5, 2013 | 11:34 p.m.

SB's 10% 3Bet makes me want to 4Bet this hand. You block AA** and even have decent equity against AA**:xx.

Agree that you should just call the flop. You have TP+2BDFDs+NGS, you don't want to R/C AI against any hands that he is willing to get AI with. The only thing you have good equity against that I could see him shoving is QJT* and even then you only have ~60%. I also don't think he'd bet that size with QJT*. His bet size is also very polarized. You mention FE as the main reason for your flop raise; If he has a polarized range, we are only folding out worse and getting action from better.

AIPF Equity vs. AA**- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=AcJhTc9h&h2=AA%3Axx&s=generic

March 5, 2013 | 7:04 p.m.

Pre: Fine.

Flop: Also fine.

Turn: I would go ahead and B/F turn. Now, with two FD's on board, you are definitely going to be barreling all your naked nut straights for protection/value OOP. His turn raising range shouldn't have nearly any (semi-) bluffs because you block Acc. Only thing I could see as a semi-bluff would be a set+diamonds. I really don't like X/C as it turns your hand face up to a strong draw, and it gives villain the right to bet nearly any non-club river (unlikely you have diamonds, so I'd try inducing a bluff raise) and get folds. The only straights I could see X/Jamming OTT would be if you had NS+Acc or NS+A/K/Qdd, something super strong that you don't mind that much to get checked through OTT, but also want to induce a bluff from villain since you will be X/F turn so often, and he has a hand that won't likely call another bet.

River: As played, fold.

March 5, 2013 | 6:54 p.m.

I agree with X/C and would X/Jam all non-heart turns. When you check after 3Betting here, he is going to bet this flop close to 100% of the time. A lot of times you are going to be X/F, so sometimes you have to X/C and X/R. This hand is the perfect hand to X/C because, as you found out, getting raised sucks, and, as said before, he will be betting this flop close to 100%.

As for the turn, when you X/C the flop and the turn isn't a heart, he will continue betting a very high frequency, thinking that you have a bluff catcher at best, and will incorrectly fold that bluff catcher to more aggression. So, IMO, against a good, aggressive opponent (maybe not even good, you might just need the aggro) this is a standard X/Jam on a non-heart turn.

March 5, 2013 | 6:39 p.m.

I also agree with a flop X/R. One of the most important things, IMO, about a flop X/R is that you block KK and can easily have KK here. His bet size is very weak, and often is an indicator that he is too weak to X/C, but a X/F is a little too weak, so he opts to B/F. You still have 34.04% against AA+NFD, so combined with your FE, I think you should X/R to ~$9.30 and get it in if raised.

March 5, 2013 | 6:29 p.m.

If he has a 6 that isn't a boat, it's probably worse than yours given the combos of hands that have 6's in them that are more likely to 3Bet (9876, 8764, etc). Also, even though he is 3Betting ~42%, you still have more 6's in your range and he has more semi-bluffs.

How often do you semi-bluff raise the flop? If not, you may want to be wary of the turn X/R because he is X/Raising a range that is heavily weighted toward 6***+. Unless, of course, he is tilting so bad he doesn't/won't realize this.

I'm still undecided as to what to do. In game, if I knew he was tilting a ton I'd probably call, but if he is still fairly capable of reading ranges,and if you semi-bluff raise flop <~20%, I would B/F turn.

March 5, 2013 | 6:21 p.m.

You might want to consider putting this hand in your check flop range vs. aggressive opponents at 100+ bbs. Versus a short stack, I'd just B/C AI OTF. He can have hands that you are in great shape against (876ss, Ks76:ss, etc).

March 5, 2013 | 6:11 p.m.

Stats/reads on villain?

March 5, 2013 | 6:03 p.m.

Is this ever going to become a video?

March 2, 2013 | 1:33 p.m.

Comment | Lenny Seward commented on overpair vs reg
I would 3Bet pre. His CO range is going to be wide (usually), and your hand doesn't have a lot of value if it goes 3+ way and doesn't flop a set.

Flop is fine. Turn, I would jam. You have an OP+FD+OE. Your flush draw is going to be good >90% of the time and your OE is the nut OE. SPR is only ~2.6 after he bets and the river is going to be tough unimproved. He could also very easily be B/F because your range is weak.

Feb. 28, 2013 | 6:10 p.m.

I think sizing is pretty standard with his range. No reason to pot it when he will fold out worse and only get it in with better.

OTF, you have to get it in. If he is 4Betting just a few times with non-AA hands and is B/F this is going to be an easy, profitable shove. You only need ~37% to get it in anyway, and if he has your FD beat, you still have four outs.

Equity: http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=7c+7s+6s&g=oh&h1=Ks+Kh+4s+4h&h2=AA%2C+AsA%3Ass&s=generic

Count: http://propokertools.com/simulations/count?b=7c+7s+6s&g=oh&h1=Ks+Kh+4s+4h&h2=AA&h3=AsA%3Ass&s=generic

Feb. 28, 2013 | 5:53 p.m.

Comment | Lenny Seward commented on 2pair+OESD 3way
I wouldn't raise pre. Yes, this is a good hand, but you're deep stacked (with BTN), OOP with a hand that doesn't have a preflop equity edge and on any flop you don't flop at least a wrap on, you're faced with a tough flop decision, or are just X/Folding MW.

Flop CBet size should be bigger. If your range is high card/AA heavy you would be X/F a decent amount here, but if you did CBet it's probably because you have at the very least, AAdd, or are B/F AA w/o a FD both of which you would bet bigger with. If you think your opponents will stab OTF if you check, I would go for a X/R OTF.

OTT, if I CBet flop I would go ahead and B/F against BTN and B/C against HJ. BTN is only raising better OTT. Occasionally he might be raising K+NFD, but for the most part it will be KT+. As for HJ, he could be shoving any two pair, any K+FD, etc. Basically, his range is a lot wider and he probably would've raised two pair+ OTF given stacks. I hate X/C here. Especially after BTN only bet ~1/2 pot. I would X/R him there every time after seeing his bet size. The K hurts our absolute hand strength, but he is NEVER betting that size with a hand better than ours. He would want to bet bigger to protect from a FD (which is nearly guaranteed that one of you has a FD).

OTR, I might consider calling. If you have a very AA heavy range pre, it doesn't make sense for him to bet the river with worse than a 5. You block TT and 77, and he probably would've ISO'd a HJ limp with KK pre considering his 14% 3Bet. The only problem with calling is if he isn't very good and decides to value bet/bluff (?) KT or perhaps even a K+FD. I think he would've raised OTF with any two pair or set with the effective SPR w/ HJ at only ~2. Very weird line by BTN. I guess, in game I'd probably fold, but if he is turning AdTd into a bluff OTT/R, I could see a call. Still undecided with limited info.

Feb. 28, 2013 | 5:43 p.m.

Again, agree with everything. This flop is one that doesn't crush anyone's range, and you do have a 4 blocker to the wrap which is one of the hands that will play back at you OTF. You also probably can get the BTN out of the hand given that he isn't likely to have a strong hand on a 752r board and a 31% VPIP. Another thing is that most bad players won't slow play hands better than yours, so if you do get raised you can fold.

Turn bet definitely should be bigger. You don't block spades, so it's likely someone else picked up a FD that they'll peel you with, regardless of bet size. Bigger bet=More protection and more value. River is also a value bet for sure. If he binked QJ that sucks, but you can still get value from anything he wants to bluff catch with. His WTSD is also extremely high, so I might bet ~$4.60, but sizing is really just whatever you think he'll call with worse. Another thing about the sizing is that you are never bluffing with that sizing. I don't know if he will realize that, but a bigger bet puts more bluffs in your range.

Feb. 28, 2013 | 5:21 p.m.

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