I see your point, and I'm almost certain now that I should just bet turn(solver says which suprises me little that I should check only 15% on turn) and if check then I should check/shove with AA to that sizing.
Anyway you cant compare that hand with what happened between Negreanu and Torelli. Ranges are way tighter in my hand and also its tournament where sometimes its wise to avoid variance spots. In cash game with 1:1 stack-pot ratio that would end always in Torelli either shoving himself or check/shoving turn.
March 13, 2019 | 6:52 p.m.
There is no rule which says that if you bluff turn, you have to bluff river.
And thats exactly why his line is extremally profitable if I only call there. If he has better hand then he is going to get my whole stack on river anyway. If he has bluff then he will checkback on brick and still get my stack if his hand improves above 1 pair.
Therefore he is realizing way more than 100% equity of his range and probably only correct response is to avoid calling as much as possible and play shove or fold , GTO+ also agrees on that approach.
March 13, 2019 | 3:46 p.m.
If you think that Villain's size is equivalent to a jam (because you're only going to jam or fold, never call), then Villain gets a great price on his bluffs, and also gets full value for his nut hands. His strategy works great.
Dont you think that after calling that bet you are commited with AA on ANY river? Do you expect him to continue bluffing with 99/JTs/something else with only 7$ left in stacks?
March 13, 2019 | 1:56 p.m.
When you check the turn the villain is likely to bet any hand that has value (two pair or better) as a T would be disastrous for any set or two pair.
If he never checkbacks set and underbluffs(which is how playerpool plays) then call with AA goes from slightly EV+ to massive EV- decision.
Though maybe I made mistake by checking turn with AA?
March 13, 2019 | 1:47 p.m.
On the turn, he could be bluffing with a flush draw, or something like bottom pair or JTs
I dont think he has there more flushdraws than exactly JTs - it would require for him to first - 3bet fish with low suited connector and then float cbet with very low equity. Also I doubt people 3bet there 100% of JT vs fish preflop.
. If he takes this line with even 3 combos of AK, even if he's never bluffing (a big if), the turn call is +EV.
Maybe my approach is too nitty but i'm still not convinced. He can have only 6 combinations (3 x K, 2 x A) and thats includes AK which shoved pre and AK which checbacks turn. Overall I think that giving him half of AK combos in bet turn is way too optimistic.
You have to always compare things to the alternative. If he checks turn, will you value bet a blank river? Would this bet be bigger than half pot? If the answers are yes, then his line would lead to a cheaper showdown.
If he wanted to set his own price for showdown then he could bet 20%. Actually sizing he used is not different from shove - it would be insane to fold any river with AA and 15% pot odds so I was only considering whatever I should shove or fold turn. I cant see any reason to call as I'm never folding after that on river.
March 13, 2019 | 1:20 p.m.
What's your range to 4-bet pre? Do you 4-bet QJs, KJs from the SB here? Do you 4-bet ATs?
JJ+,AJs+,AKo <- thats core of my cold 4bet there
99-TT,ATs,KQs with lower frequency
If you're folding on turn, are you only continuing with two pair+? If not, and you fold AA, you'll be folding everything except sets and KQs.
I'm aware of that but what are his bluffs? IMHO almost none.
Ok, so what I beat from his value range? Maybe AK, but then he can have only 6 combinations and then some will shove pre, some will not bet on turn. If I lock in GTO+ his range on turn to almost always bet sets(as nl25 playerpool wont slowplay there set almost never) then AA is clear check/fold.
Maybe he's trying to get thin value with AK, and trying to take the initiative away from you so he can get a cheaper showdown?
He threw 1/3 of his starting stack into middle on turn, I dont see how you can describe this as buying cheaper showdown.
March 13, 2019 | 6:09 a.m.
SB: $25.00 (Hero)
Rake is $0.82