Alix Martin's avatar

Alix Martin

11 points

if he has 78 half of the times, this is not going to work very well...

Dec. 20, 2012 | 5:44 p.m.

So we have a strategy pair :
Sauce : call QT!Q!Q, KcJc**, Jc8c**, QQJc*, fold the rest (QT!Q!Q means QT but not QQT)
Odd : reraise all in QQ**, QT**, KcJc, Jc8c

What are the necessary / sufficient conditions on incoming frequencies for this to be an equilibrium for this river's sub-game ?

Odd is risking 21401 to win 26520, he needs to succeed 45% of times to break even, which transfers in to a 55% calling frequency for Ben.

So if QT!Q!Q, KcJc**, Jc8c**, QQJc* is more than 55 % of Sauce's range, the equilibrium is stable.
But if Odd has the Jc blocker, and no straight flush, it becomes harder for Sauce to reach the threshold calling frequency : if QT!Q!Q is less than 55% of his range, then bluffing Jc blockers is good.
Then from Sauce's point of view we would need those bluffs to be less than 15% of Odd's reraising range for the fold to still be correct, as he's calling 8601 to win 56522.

Dec. 20, 2012 | 5:37 p.m.

your not supposed to be balanced on every flop, even in the context of an overall balanced strategy. If he has the nuts 75 % of the time on a type of flop that appears 5 % of times, you have an auto-fold, and it does not necessarily invalidate your preflop call, because it could be justified by the ev on the remaining 95% flops.

Dec. 20, 2012 | 12:26 p.m.

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