Apologies, there's an error in the note I took down. I thought the pot was 280 (was actually 290), but the BTN did start the hand with a full 100bb stack.
I think I'm flatting AA and KK because of the BTN actually, he's been one of the most active 3bettors on the table and I had a loose image.
About your last question, I don't know to be honest. My read is that the BTN is not perfectly balanced, he tends to put too much money in with his cbets but also shuts down on later streets too frequently. I also don't think BTN is always shoving his cbetting range on most boards, like on some boards he will have a non all-in cbet sizing but I'm prepared to call down with TT in some situations.
Feb. 27, 2019 | 8:07 p.m.
UTG ($1800) Tight-aggressive reg opens to 25. Hero with $1000(splashy LAG image) flats TT from HJ. BTN (reg) with $500 (has been 3betting hero frequently and is aware of Hero's image. My read on him is that he cbets a little too frequently and is relatively tight-passive post flop) 3bets to 90. UTG calls. I elect to call.
My read preflop was that UTG's range is capped. (Flatting QQ+ or AK at this depth would definitely not be the standard play and require more thought than the way UTG chose to call in this hand). BTN seems to have an auto-squeeze hand as it didn't take much time for him to 3bet either. What do you guys think about back-raise jamming here? I think UTG is dead money almost always (except JJ maybe?) and BTN might have some 3bet folds in his range. I can't say at what frequency but I can also be sure that I will have some KK AA combo at this spot, AQs is another hand I would consider doing this with.
The rest of the hand went quite uneventful, we flop gin on T89r. Checks to BTN who shoves for 280. UTG folds, we call and scoop. My other question is that on the exact same spot, if we are the BTN in this hand and assume we 3bet preflop with a reasonable and relatively linear range. Is this a board we should be checking at a high frequency? Thoughts about c-betting flop 25-33% with most of our range?
Feb. 26, 2019 | 12:16 p.m.
You got the money in good and put yourself in a very good position to win a huge pot. That's what matters. You shouldn't really be asking question like "was his call reasonable?", remember this, you need bad players to make mistakes in order to win at poker. Sometimes their mistakes put a bad beat on you, but that's an essential part of the game.
On a sidenote, if I'm reading your hand history correctly, the money got it in on the turn. Unless HJ is drawing stone dead with a hand like AJ, it's likely he will share some of the equity. (pair+diamond draws, overpairs, some sort of straight/ flush combo draw are all reasonable holdings for HJ.) Another reason to not be thinking about the hand based on the river.
Feb. 25, 2019 | 11:51 p.m.
First post on RIO because this spot seems so interesting.
1. Why not cbet flop? I know this is a board we should be checking a lot because we don't have a lot of nines in our range. We also get called by hands better than ours (our kicker isn't great) But in a five way pot, seems like playing more straightforward can't be bad. Live poker is more about getting value than being balanced in certain spots IMO.
2. Regarding combos, since there are 2 nines on the board and you have 98s, theoretically he should only have one combo of A9s. Flatting A9o 5 ways facing EP open doesn't seem ideal and I would guess he has more 98o or even 97o than A9o.
3. I agree this is 99.9% a boat OTR for the BTN, can't completely rule out JT just because I haven't seen BTN play personally. I can see some really bad (usually wealthy) rec players that might just be spewy like this, but this is extremely unlikely.
As played I think it really depends on the BTN then, if I think he's ever doing that with 77 or 88 I'll probably talk myself into a call. Knowing your average thinking regs in local casinos mostly play a weak passive style, for some players I can see them having us beat 100% of the time here. My experience is talking really helps the decision-making in these kind of spots, player profiling, try to hint at him you have a boat, see if he gets nervous (because he overplayed his hand)