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Bill

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Brian, you essentially HJ'd my thinking. I was pretty disappointed that everyone are all running cold equity combo's like Vik is an idiot and can't do that himself.

Personally I haven't run the numbers but I think I am flatting flop and shoving turn without a second thought.

Jan. 24, 2013 | 3:11 a.m.

I think hot/cold equity calculation isn't what he's looking for

Jan. 24, 2013 | 3:06 a.m.

Post | Bill posted in Other: Open complete theory
Anyone have a study on completing upon open in both Stud Hi & Stud/8? Any thoughts on opening ranges and balancing? Opponents reactions vs. standard post, etc? I'd like some real theory discussion here. Don't be afraid to shoot out thoughts!

Jan. 24, 2013 | 2:54 a.m.

Comment | Bill commented on how to analyze a hand?
This is completely opponent dependent and since we know nothing about their play, it's almost impossible to offer any type of contextual answer. If you could offer some more info that would be great. If you don't know anything about villain in this hand, I think the following are the best lines in order of preference
1. c/f
2. bet
3. c/c

Jan. 8, 2013 | 9:43 p.m.

I don't have a problem with this as you have blockers to wrap/flush draw type of hands that are never folding anyhow.

Jan. 3, 2013 | 10:46 p.m.

What is your plan if he bets the turn?

Based on your description, I'm wondering how many combo's of hands he has that check behind the river for fear of being c/r? Does that outweigh the other type of wrap combo's that missed? Anyone..?

Jan. 3, 2013 | 10:43 p.m.

Sean,

From a purely analytical standpoint you're right on. However, IMO, this river betsizing in conjunction with the entire situation is rarely a bluff in live games. I actually think it's a fold and placed little regard to the description of the villain in question because you're right, you'd need a pretty spot on read to really make any type of significant changes to your evaluation.

This may be a situation where the people involved aren't simply bright enough to make this type of situation happen and have it be balanced enough to be a bluff. When I first read it I thought "well played" but in all honesty I don't see a ton of this type of action going on that 1 pair wins often enough on the river in a 3-way pot.

I could be totally off, but wondering what you think of my line of thinking.

Jan. 3, 2013 | 10:37 p.m.

Comment | Bill commented on One of those hands
How QQ didn't scoop this, is beyond me.

Dec. 31, 2012 | 4:49 p.m.

Comment | Bill commented on Running so bad.
Wow this is so sick. Ever tried the fail proof method of drinking and playing terribly to try an offset?

Dec. 31, 2012 | 4:43 p.m.

Sean Fri using funeral talk in response to a beat... gross

Dec. 31, 2012 | 4:36 p.m.

Since when does playing ~20bb deep advocate for playing in more pots?

Dec. 31, 2012 | 4:19 p.m.

Earlier in the session I had c/r him AI on the river when I turned quads and he took a while but eventually folded so I considered that in my assessment also but I agree that it's highly unlikely that he's taking this line with much else. Thanks for the input.

Dec. 31, 2012 | 2:32 p.m.

I think you also need to take into consideration your effective stack and how that changes how you play vs. the reg. By playing the stack sizes you are, you're opening him up to being more aggressive and making you show up with a hand. You can certainly win vs. him, but I'd look into optimizing your strategy a bit more based on how deep you're playing.

Dec. 27, 2012 | 10:28 p.m.

This actually makes much more sense now that I've read this, and then come back a week later to re-read. He's unlikely to be smart enough to c/r this flop and bet a K for value, and (I think someone also said this) that seems like a really tough river to bet into without it. Obviously pot odds make it ridiculously hard to fold here, which sucks.

Dec. 27, 2012 | 10:18 p.m.

Based on your analysis of him being totally polarized if you get the money in on the flop, why did you choose the way you played it? I don't feel his river range is really all that changed from his flop range based on your description. With that said, why call the turn $600 (looks value-y) and then fold out the river when the only hand that got there is T7? Is there literally any chance he does this with JT? FWIW I play there quite often so maybe if you have a specific player I could help, but I don't see a ton of JT shoves at FW in this type of scenario.

Def a tough spot but I feel it could have been avoided with much less guesswork.

Dec. 27, 2012 | 10:08 p.m.

I've played a ton of live cash around these stakes and, although it's totally player dependent, the "typical" range here is 4x, big K's. I think there's a small chance you see a flush, but not sure that outweighs the % he folds to a river jam to fold out K's/other crap. Typically I see someone donk the river to not let it get checked through, so in the eyes of a fish he's pretty happy with his hand.... typically. Also, I tend to stay away from hero plays vs. guys who don't understand how to read a story.

Dec. 27, 2012 | 9:53 p.m.

^^ Basically what eq.fest said: I'm curious as to what villain assess' your range to be with pre flat & flop raise. I think it's incredibly tough for him to continue if you bet the turn, which is why I'm likely betting here because I like putting as much pressure on others as possible. For instance, you're both like ~100bb deep still on the turn, which makes his decision even harder. If you bet 2/3 pot on the turn and he calls, you're set up for a pot bet on the river AI. You still have a bunch of equity vs. KK-TT.

Dec. 27, 2012 | 9:46 p.m.

Might be a stupid question but how are you not calling river once you call turn?

Dec. 27, 2012 | 9:30 p.m.

I thought about calling and re-evaluating but at that point there'd be ~$360 in the pot and there's no way I can fold then if he bets half or 2/3 pot. Just seemed way too comfortable c/r full pot with this flop texture.

Dec. 27, 2012 | 9:27 p.m.

@Hurricane562 I am on par with your comment about 3b pre with this. Balancing is okay, but this is the ideal spot for him to make this play vs. your 3b range. Seems rather exploitable, IMO.

Dec. 26, 2012 | 1:26 p.m.

Post | Bill posted in PLO: 1/2 Middle Set - Tough spot?
This past weekend was playing in a 1/2 PLO live game (casino) and played a hand I'd like to hear your thoughts on.

Villain in this hand is pretty solid, have been playing with him for several hours now and he rarely gets out of line and understands flop textures/pot size control. Like myself, he rarely shows down without it. I'd call him a solid TAG, but I still feel I have an edge vs. him particularly on later streets. I'm playing $750 in this spot and he has me covered. We have been playing with the straddle on for several rounds and it is on in this hand as well.

Villain opens UTG to $12, I call in UTG+1 with Jh9h9c8c, 2 more callers.

Flop Kd9s5h

Checks to me and I decide to bet $50 here because I don't want it checked behind, etc etc. folds around to villain who pots it (I think bet was ~$160). This may seem really nitty but I took a real while before deciding what to do here. Wonder what your thoughts are in situations like this when you're this deep? FYI, since this is less of a complex scenario I'll just let everyone know I ended up folding.

Dec. 26, 2012 | 1:20 p.m.

Ok, this thread isn't getting a ton of activity so I'll post results now:

I tanked and called because I think his range is weighted towards bluffs here quite often. He had 5s5d and actually said "nice call, you must have me..." and then realized he won just before his cards went into the muck. Pretty sick slow roll, which he apologized for, but it made me pretty happy to see his reaction because he clearly felt as if he was bluffing in this spot. That and I don't think he is smart enough to value bet with the 5d basically ever.

After some thought, I do believe this is probably a fold preflop here. I was pretty sure I could outplay this opponent and there was some equity here but probably not deep enough. I'm typically a cash player and sometimes it's hard for me to slow down and avoid thin spots in tournaments. However, I do plan on playing more tournaments in the future and look forward to your advice. Thanks guys.

Dec. 20, 2012 | 8:24 p.m.

Hey guys,

Played in the Foxwoods MegaStack Main Event this past weekend. Lot of interesting hands from the tourney but this one stuck out the most to me and wanted your thoughts. The field was actually pretty tough, particularly on Day 2. I don't play tourneys often but given the $200k guaranteed, I couldn't resist.

I'm playing $197.5k (villain covers) deep at $5k/$10k w/ $1,500 ante. Only 31 players left from 217, blinds going up to $6k/$12k in about 11 minutes. Only about three hours into day two and I have only opened one pot and folded to a 3-bet from the SB. This hand is against a different opponent who has been opening a lot of hands so his range is pretty wide here.

Villain limps UTG, I raise to $30k with QhJh in MP. Everyone behind me is playing pretty snug and I think I can outplay the villain in question. He plays the flop a bit loose and tends to give up on bigger streets facing aggression, but takes the lead if you show weakness. Folded around and he calls. HU to the flop with $88,500 in pot.

Flop 4d8dJd
Villain checks, I bet $32k, he calls.
After I bet this amount, I thought it was a mistake and I should be betting more, but interested in your thoughts?

Turn Kd
Villain checks, I check.
I am checking behind here for two main reasons: 1. Not to be bluffed off the best hand and 2. to give him an opportunity to bluff on the river.

River 2c
Villain bets $50k
So he took the bait and did exactly what I thought he would, but what do I do now?

Dec. 18, 2012 | 8:56 p.m.

I think I play it the same exact way. The two continuous $1k bets on turn/river look weak but I've seen this type of move taken so many times with sets in live games. Without a concrete "this guy is a maniac" type of read, it's hard to extract more value than what you're getting, IMO.

Dec. 12, 2012 | 6:58 p.m.

I'll use a donk bet vs. only specific player types. I've found, like Di mentioned, in certain spots you can get people to call you down lighter and become more passive. I've also found some players tend to feel more comfortable raising donk bets to try and get a better feel for your range, which is clearly exploitable. Basically, I feel donk betting is a good spot when you have a feel for the players turn/river passiveness/aggressiveness. I tend to not use it vs. players I don't know well.

Dec. 11, 2012 | 2:33 p.m.

Comment | Bill commented on 2/5 NL river bluff
Ok, so now seems like a good time to tell you what actually happened.

Villain agonized for a bit and eventually called with 9cTc

Dec. 11, 2012 | 2:22 p.m.

Comment | Bill commented on 2/5 NL river bluff
James - as played, do you bet the river if the board pairs?

Dec. 11, 2012 | 2:16 p.m.

Comment | Bill commented on 2/5 NL river bluff
"What you're up against is whether or not he's capable of folding a hand like KQ or AT here (more likely hands imo than a small flush and his line - given that he is PFR ). My experience in live games is that opponents aren't really thinking about your hand/line being polarized so much as the absolute value of their own hand - his decision probably won't have anything to do w/ how many combos of flushes you can have."

That's a great point and something I have been trying to be more aware of. When I raised the turn, I had already decided that I was pot'ing the river because once he calls the turn I feel he polarizes his range even more. However to the average player, folding a hand like AT is hard even though the story I was telling was for him to fold based on my range. If I thought I had a decent % of winning at SD, I would have checked behind. It may just be that he decided he was calling any non-spade/board pair river and no bet amount would have stopped him.

Dec. 11, 2012 | 2:12 p.m.

Comment | Bill commented on 2/5 NL river bluff
James.. If I do choose that flop line and then:
A. He bets same amount.
B. He checks again.
What is your action and why?

Dec. 11, 2012 | 1:06 a.m.

Comment | Bill commented on 2/5 NL river bluff
I see what you mean and how that could be translated... which is exactly why I fired the river as played. Clearly this is one hand, one instance, one read. However your analysis regarding value betting the turn with a limited range is something I will consider moving forward. One thing I tend to get caught up with is reading my opponents well but disregarding my own potential holdings in their eyes based on my observations. Thanks for the feedback.

Dec. 11, 2012 | 1:04 a.m.

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