Also agree that #2 is likely still a profitable call. Lots of opportunities for profitable bluffs and cheap showdown. I think in multiway spots we're actually over-realizing equity compared to what solvers likely do since most players tend to underbluff and undervalue bet.
Jan. 28, 2018 | 2:48 p.m.
It would end up being a function of your total bankroll and your bankroll management ideology.
If you are doing brm and are moving up/down every 20bi, then having 10bi on the table is probably not the best idea.
Jan. 5, 2018 | 7:22 p.m.
Albeit on a much smaller # of hand scale, my last 20,000 hands or so I've had to reflect in a similar matter and can both relate to your student's perception as well as to your response. I think it is important to do self reflection at the end of every session--regardless of the length, and think about the quality of play and the overall positive/negative variance that occurred (hand distribution/EV/etc.). Doing so allows one to have a better viewpoint over a greater span of hands; to some extent, at least for me, it also holds the tilt back a little knowing I've made some mistakes or knowing I'm running poorly and can relate this to the results. This reflection over the course of many sessions allows us to understand that variance plays quite a big factor in how we're going to run over a small sample (100k stretches even) and also helps us focus on the mistakes we're making in order to improve as well.
The last 20k hands or so I've been mostly breakeven and I don't get much volume playing on Ignition and having a full time job, so the accumulation of essentially dozens and dozens of sessions is the result of a total of a mere 20k hands. This results in me feeling as though the down swing/break even stretches have lasted longer than they should when in reality it is only a function of the number of hands. In these downswing/breakeven stretches I find myself going to pokerdope variance calculator to remind myself that variance is a much bigger factor than most poker players care to realize.
Of course, striving to better oneself and overall game is very important--only noting that variance is certainly a big factor as well.
Best of luck to your student.
Dec. 16, 2017 | 5:57 p.m.
We're oop in MP vs CO so I'd check a lot. If I did bet it would be with hands like lower pocket pairs and a mix of some JX type stuff and occasional QQ with some air type stuff (QT/T9s bdfd)
Mostly just checking as a default tho.
Dec. 3, 2017 | 7:50 p.m.
I'd also like to add that although looking at hands you're unsure on is useful, this situation is going to happen so infrequently that you are highly incentivized to be studying other things which will be significantly more effective at increasing your winrate.