Brosauce

HU. Fishy players limps button. This opponent can play atrociously and play decent -- it all depends on how he is running.

Button limps. We raise KhTs from BB to 16, button calls.

Flop is T56cch we bet 20, button calls. Pot is 72

Turn is 7h, we check, he bets 36, we call. Pot is 144.

River is 7s, we check, he bets 144. We…?

My analysis:

From an MDF perspective, we have to defend 50% of our range against a potsize bet.

As played on turn, our range of hands w/ SD value headed into river is:

AA-JJ, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9s, 87s, 97s.

This represents:

24 combos of AA-JJ
51 combos of Tx
4 combos of 7x

For a total of 69 combos

How do we construct our calling range on the river?

1. We want to call with all combos of 7x (4 combos)
2. We want to call with combos of Tx where we don’t block clubs or hearts

TXd/s would be 4 combos per kicker rank so 20 combos total

1. Overpairs with no club no heart

1 combo (i.e AdAs) per over pair rank so 4 combos total

Total combos: 4+20+4 = 28 which is somewhat short of the 34.5 combos we need to call with.

Absent reads, what do y’all think is the correct decision here? Unfortunately reads are tough against this opponent because they can play completely differently depending on they’re current state (tilted, drunk, etc.)

5-handed 2/4 NL. Effective stacks is $1300 Villain opens to 12. Hero calls CO with

Pot is 30. Flop is 664 rainbow. Villain continues for 18. Hero raises to 48.

Rationale on flop decision: We want to protect our equity from hands that have two to our pair over cards and there's around 22 bad turn cards for us (6 ranks * 4 cards) - 2 cards in villains hands. We also should have more 6s than villain so it's difficult for him to 3bet bluff us and if called we preserve optionality to either turn our hand into a bluff or to try and get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

What are peoples thoughts?

Context: Hero is playing in a 5-handed 2/4NL private online game. Effective stacks are ~$650

Folded to SB who opens to 12. Hero 3b from BB to 50 with JhJd.

Flop is Kd 3s 5s. SB checks, Hero checks
Turn is Th. SB bets 60. Hero Calls
River is 7d. SB shoves for 540. Hero ??

I thought using an MDF analysis here would be a good way to come to a decision.

MDF = Pot / (Pot + Bet) = 220 / (220 + 540) = 29%. I think I have about 53 total combos of hands to bluff catch with.

JTo 12 combos
Qto 12 combos
K9s 4 combos
ATo (one spade) 6 combos
ATo (no spade) 6 combos
JJ 6 combos
QQ 6 combos
TT 2 combos
Total Combos: 54

54*29% = 15 combos that we should call with.

15 ideal combos that we should call with:
TT 2 combos
ATo (no spade) 6 combos
K9s 4 combos
QQ (no spade) 3 combos

Given this analysis, I should fold with JhJd?

Follow up question: Am I correct to only include hands with showdown value that I get to the river with in my MDF analysis (the 54 total combos from the analysis). Why don't I also include hands that I get to river with that don't have any showdown value (AQ or QJ for instance if I were to ever play them that way).

Context: Hero is playing in a 5-handed 2/4NL private online game. Effective stacks are ~$650

Folded to SB who opens to 12. Hero 3b from BB to 50 with JhJd.

Flop is Kd 3s 5s. SB checks Hero checks.

Turn is Th. SB bets 60. Hero Calls

River is 7d. SB shoves for 540. Hero ??

I thought using an MDF analysis here would be a good way to come to a decision.

MDF = Pot / (Pot + Bet) = 220 / (220 + 540) = 29%. I think I have about 53 total combos of hands to bluff catch with.

JTo 12 combos
Qto 12 combos
K9s 4 combos
ATo (one spade) 6 combos
ATo (no spade) 6 combos
JJ 6 combos
QQ 6 combos
TT 2 combos

Total Combos: 54

54*29% = 15 combos that we should call with.

15 ideal combos that we should call with:

TT 2 combos
ATo (no spade) 6 combos
K9s 4 combos
QQ (no spade) 3 combos

Given this analysis, I should fold with JhJd?

Follow up question: Am I correct to only include hands with showdown value that I get to the river with in my MDF analysis (the 54 total combos from the analysis). Why don't I also include hands that I get to river with that don't have any showdown value (AQ or QJ for instance if I were to ever play them that way).

Hey all. Interesting hand came up in my online "home game" and I wanted input.

$2/$4
Hero: $980
Villain: $800
V2: $400

Three handed game, all players active pre. Both villains are weak players.

V2 opens $12 OTB, Villain flats, Hero 3b to $44 with AJdd, V2 calls, Villain calls.

Pot $132

Flop Jc10c4d

Villain checks, Hero bets $86, V2 folds, Villain raises to $200,

We?

To summarize -- $418 in the pot and we have $617 behind. I think it's safe to assume villains range is 2 combos of J10s, 3 combos of 44, all FDs, maybe AQo and AJo. Is this a no brainer jam?

Hero is on button with Ac4d (37,000). My image is tight at this point. Ive shown down 3 hands to this point, including AA. Also face up folded AQ pre once. Leading up to this hand I was card dead and had folded out about 2 full orbits so image was especially tight.

Villain is SB (36,500), seems like a halfway decent player, rocking beats headphones, has been fairly aggressive early on. 

Starting stacks of 20K, blinds 200/400/50

Folds to hero, who makes it 1,200 to go. Small blind calls 1,000 more, BB calls for 800 more. BB is a loose passive player I really was not concerned about.

Flop 2c3h3s

Good flop. Check, check, hero makes it 2,100

Villain thinks and calls. BB Folds.

Turn is 8d

Villain checks, hero makes it 5,200. Villain tanks 30 seconds and calls. 

At this point, I think range is all pairs 22,44-99, Ax etc, I dont see many 3's in there besides A3, but im blocking A.

River comes Jd, which I think is a pretty good card for me.

Villain checks, I make it 7,000. Villain tanks for 1 minute and makes it 15,000. Hero Jams. 

My thought was that I was straight up repping a nutted hand. I think i get all 1 pairs to fold, all Ax, some 3's. Was this too brash? Looking back I'm thinking he was probably too pot committed to fold. Probably would have worked much better 10-15bbs deeper...