Thanks, to you and everyone else who posted. Youre right that the solver pretty much only split between a small size and checking back. I asked the question because my very simplistic heuristic of "bigger size on wetter board" failed me.
Sept. 13, 2021 | 9:40 p.m.
Hey thank you very much for taking the time to write this
Your first point is excellent and i hadnt considered it really as i live in an extremely developed country (canada). So in my case it would be harder to make a relatively good income
Your second on motivation and incentive and life style etc etc, i really do understand this. Ive indeed invested hundreds and hundreds of hours, felt the pain of variance and its highs. I know it would only be the beginning, but its not necessarily getting through the process that kills my motivation. Its that im not confident that theres a payoff... like say i treated poker like a full time job, 40 hour weeks, it seems like it would be months and months of slogging before just being able to scrape a near minimum wage.
Is there really money to be made at higher stakes? Or is it just harder and harder pools fighting over smaller and smaller scraps?
@my motivations, quite honestly what i want is to avoid those different areas but still have food on my plate, and one or two robots to jerk me o-i mean a normal person metaphor for a cushy western lifestyle
Aug. 9, 2021 | 8:53 p.m.
Seems like what im seeing is that if you put in monsterous amounts of effort, several hours a day with solvers and theory and practice, for several months if not more... then you eventually are rewarded with what... a 5 bb/100 winrate at 25nl? 10 if youre an absolute crusher... 4 tables of zoom thats 10 dollars an hour as the upper end of pipe dreaming...
I was looking over the player pools of zoom and 50nl+ has like 100-150 players on a sunday. It just seems completely out of the question to play poker professionally. How many people in the world can do it at one time? If theres only 1 or 200 people in the pool, and most of them are losing money, then the opportunity for profit is exceedingly low and extremely well contested... is there any hope?
Aug. 9, 2021 | 6:08 p.m.
SB: $25.00 (Hero)
July 26, 2021 | 11:01 p.m.
If its not a bluff then its for value, right? So which hand do you expect him to call with? If he was bluffing flop and then giving up then you always win with a check and never get him to call with worse. If he value raised flop then youre way behind, but i agree this isnt likely as he shouldnt be raising so much with hands like kj or ak. If he was bluffing anything like a2 or 66 then they cant call off river
July 8, 2021 | 3:08 p.m.
BB: $10.05 (Hero)
June 16, 2021 | 12:44 a.m.
CO: $21.72 (Hero)
June 15, 2021 | 10:55 p.m.
I think the background part is wrong? Mdf tells us what frequency to fold at to make villain indifferent to betting any card. If youre below mdf he cant add more combos to bet because hes already betting every single one. If you defend exactly at mdf then his 0 equity bluffs are 0 ev, which means his >0 equity bluffs are >0 ev (in a simplified scenario where he gets to realize it anyway). In reality, unless he snuck in some pokemon cards, he doesnt have any literal 0 equity hands otf
There IS indifference at the threshold between checking and betting in gto on all streets, but thats not a result of defending at mdf. Mdf warns us about potential auto-profit spots, its not actually a target number to build our strategy around
June 15, 2021 | 9 p.m.
Cbet was good, villain has a slight nut advantage with more 44 and QT, but we have an equity advantage with kk+ and a higher concentration of Qs and straight draws + overs. And, like you say, theres not too many draws to worry about giving them a good price. So a small bet with a wide range is appropriate
Definitely note on villain. Underpairs have very very low odds to improve so when you bluff and get called its basically 0 equity vs their range. If they have relevant blockers they can become good bluffs, but here they block nothing. Maybe if hes polarizing and just doesnt have any low equity bluffs in his range it could be good, but something like 78d is just way better to bluff flop because it has backdoor draws. And also you cant have a polarized clickback range, hes basically asking you to call flop for that size which is why his range should be slightly ahead of your continuing range rather than slightly behind with all these medicore pairs
June 1, 2021 | 2:08 p.m.
I cc 3b spots like this sometimes exploitatively just because population (the one i play anyway) isnt aggro enough and utg will often call with all the hands he otherwise would have folded
But then if i let myself call because people arent aggro enough, and they start getting aggro, i have to let it go because theyre just very nutted
June 1, 2021 | 1:31 p.m.
For these sizes villain has a merged range after raising flop which is not unreasonable
After he x river im expecting a lot of chops, some aq and maybe maybe some qj. Could also have kj maybe aj.
Jj i would probably fold turn and kick myself for not folding flop. Folding kq to river bet.
June 1, 2021 | 1:23 p.m.
MP: $2.03 (Hero)
May 29, 2021 | 9:20 p.m.
thanks this had me feeling good for a while
...and then i logged another 4 hour massively losing session. like I just cant win, and its crushing me. despite being a staunch materialist and believer in the math, i just cant help but think that my decisions dont matter and im simply destined to lose.
Sample is only 60k for my main stake. its very triangular, I was very lucky the first 30k and the next 30k is just near exclusively losing. the kicker is that i ran out the first 30 quickly, and the next 30 are sessions separated by many hours of studying because when I get tilted I quit and study instead, sometimes for days at a time, before I can bring myself to sit at a table again. the more I study, the more I take lines that seem correct, the more I lose.
sorry I know I'm just being whiney, but its just so unbelievable and its so hard to want to play when winning feels impossible
May 29, 2021 | 10:02 a.m.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: 164.2 BB
SB: 127.2 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 130.6 BB
MP: 151.8 BB
Hero (CO): 116 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Kd Qc
UTG raises to 2.4 BB, MP calls 2.4 BB, Hero raises to 13 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 10.6 BB, MP calls 10.6 BB
Flop : (40.4 BB, 3 players) Js Ks 2c
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets 12.8 BB, UTG calls 12.8 BB, fold
Turn : (66 BB, 2 players) Td
UTG checks, Hero checks
River : (66 BB, 2 players) 4d
UTG bets 20.8 BB, Hero calls 20.8 BB
UTG shows Qd As (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 74%, Flop 31%, Turn 97%)
Hero mucks Kd Qc (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 26%, Flop 69%, Turn 3%)
UTG wins 103.2 BB
May 29, 2021 | 8:14 a.m.
BB: $5.47 (Hero)
Rake is $0.18
May 29, 2021 | 7:06 a.m.
Basically frustrated at a lack of results after many many hours of study. Curious about others experiences
For winning players that have moved up stakes from 5 or 10nl zoom, how long did it take you?
Or in general, how much do you think somebody has to know before theyll be winning at these very low stakes
May 28, 2021 | 11:17 p.m.
SB: $9.64 (Hero)
UTG lost and shows two pair, Aces and Jacks.
SB wins $10.80
Rake is $0.47
May 19, 2021 | 7:15 p.m.
Im interested in any groups or whatever (discord?). In a very similar boat
I just keep on losing at 5nl despite hundreds and hundreds of hours studying. Down another 3 or 4 buyins this afternoon, seems like it happens every time i sit down and im just feeling crushed. And then i take a break and just watch videos here or read books, return to the table with confidence and get smashed again and repeat the process