I think the whale might have only boats and bluffs in this spot. I don't think they're betting the flop with a naked jack, the triple barrel is very weighted towards value and they're unlikely to have bet just a backdoor flush draw on the flop but the top pair + bdfd that could barrel turn is blocked by the board. So basically I think they either have a boat here or missed spades because I can't make trips, a flush or top pair work with the story they're telling. That being the case I don't think you get any value from anything by raising, even if they bet a queen that might fold to your shove, admittedly this type of player is unlikely to fold trips if they've got here with them but it just doesn't make much sense so I think I'd just call this and hope the fish is overvaluing top pair because I don't think they have enough bluffs here given the player profile.
Sept. 15, 2019 | 12:27 p.m.
I think you might end up underbluffing on the river if we check this back, we'll have 17 combos for value (AJs + AK + JJ) so I think we need to at least bluff all of KQs, KTs and QTs on the turn
Sept. 15, 2019 | 12:13 p.m.
I think this is fine, leaves you with just over pot behind and villain isn't particularly capped so we don't want to be just throwing money into the pot but leaving just over pot behind is fine to go to the river where you're going to have a very polar shoving range of AK+ so a small overbet really isn't a problem.
Sept. 15, 2019 | 10:18 a.m.
I think you're just getting quite nice odds to call, it's $10 to win $13.5 and they could be picking any random crap to bluff with or maybe their hand just got counterfeit, idk the sizing doesn't really scream straight to me and given it's a rec they tend to be fairly face up. Against a reg I think we should consider folding because regs really don't like bluffing for small sizes because they know they get called quite often whereas recs see it as saving money when they get called. Honestly I think either decision is fine and calling is fairly close to 0ev either way so it's not that big a deal and getting this spot marginally more right is going to have 0 effect on win rate.
Sept. 15, 2019 | 10:06 a.m.
Hey, love the videos, fast becoming one of my favourite guys on rio.
When looking at the JTs hand I was thinking my best bluffs are QJ/JT/QT no spade - I think we fold out heart floats on the turn so having a heart doesn't really block anything as far as I can tell. I thought you were in agreement when you said that their calling range is usually going to look something like AT+ so those hands will have the blockers to some calls and will unblock their folding range of weaker Ax but then you went on to say that you would first bluff the random crap that you got there with like 56dd and only go with these hands sometimes and that basically nothing had any blocking properties worth noting when you got to that river. I'm a bit confused by this any chance you could help clear it up?
Sept. 14, 2019 | 5:34 a.m.
I think villain is pretty capped on this runout, he only has KK, KJ, K9 or A6 as premium hands as QT is probably almost a pure bet on the flop and so is AK so I think this is a definite call. I think turn call is fine as well, maybe small frequencies of betting or raising but I'd rather use hands without sdv. I think raising is too think on the river so yeah I'm just calling down.
Sept. 14, 2019 | 1:56 a.m.
If he folds all his flushes to a raise and you're prepared to miss out on value based on that assumption then you should be running this player over with bluffs. Yes they might make an exploitative/exploitable fold here but force them to make that decision rather than just letting them get away. This also takes away your ability to bluff in this spot because you don't have a value raising range which means that villain can value bet you thinner.
Sept. 14, 2019 | 1:45 a.m.
I was gonna type out a bunch of theory but against a villain with that tight a range I think we can fold this when we don't spike TPTK on the flop, turn I think is a call but I'm still not happy about it even though we hit the king, I think the chances we're up against QQ, KK, AA or chopping with AK facing a double barrel in a 3B pot against a tight player is exceptionally high. River I'm just happy letting it go, we have a strong hand and nice blockers but that assumes the decision is close, I think we can confidently say that villain is underbluffing this spot and we should just give up the pot.
Sept. 14, 2019 | 1:42 a.m.
Whether or not you call this really comes down to how wide you bet in this spot when checked to I think, you're going to get exploited if you have a high betting frequency then let too much go facing a raise but if you're checking back a lot of hands maybe you can let this go with no club but I really don't want to fold out this much equity so if you're against an aggressive villain I'd consider checking this back sometimes to just realise more equity.
Sept. 14, 2019 | 1:37 a.m.
So theoretically I think there's a lot of options to take on the flop as said but against recs we want to typically use small sizings whenever we can because they just respond very poorly to them with very little raising and often drastic overfolding. Turn I think you have a fine bluffing candidate tbh, you block the nuts and turned 2 pair/a set so villain 97, 76, 75 or a 1 pair hand most of the time and even when villain has a straight we have a lot of outs so I would personally double barrel this hand despite the showdown value that you've picked up because I think checking here OOP you're almost never going to get to realise that showdown value. River you can put in a raise I guess blocking the nuts and 2nd nuts but I don't think villain is folding a 7 ever if they're a rec so probably not a solid investment.
Sept. 11, 2019 | 10:05 p.m.
I'm by no means saying don't use pio, basically everything I do is rooted in a pio sim somewhere it feels like but just that this is specifically a spot where the population arrives at turns with a very different range to the one pio does so using it for multi street play without node locking will not function so well here.
Sept. 10, 2019 | 4:21 a.m.
So I'm glad you realise how vague your question is, I think I'll focus first on why I can't give you a proper answer and hopefully in the process kind of give you one.
Say we open T9s, our thought process is not something like "I am going to barrel this hand for 2 streets if I flop an 8 out draw or better". Our thought process in terms of what we want to do actually shouldn't start with our hand because our hand exists within the context of our range. This is a hard thing to come to terms with but your thought process should really start with "what does my range look like versus my opponents range on this flop?" From there you can ask "Given our ranges how often do I want to bet and for what size?" This is based on a number of factors that initially seem very intimidating but eventually become second nature through practise. It essentially comes down to the equity distribution (not to be confused with raw equities) of your range versus your opponents.
Once you've answered how your range wants to play you can then decide what you want to do with your hand. Whether or not to bet your OESD isn't a question if you decide "I have a range advantage, I am betting every hand for a small size" or you do the opposite and think "I have a range disadvantage OOP I will check my entire range" (you probably do this every hand you play as the BB when you call a raise you just don't realise you're doing it). Once you know your rough proportion of how often you want to be betting for value you can then assess how wide we'll go with our bluffs, if we have a wide value range but the board is somewhat dry then any gutshot or just overcards with a back door flush draw becomes a potential bluffing candidate particularly on the flop when the line between bluffs and value bets is more blurred. But if it's a wet board that favours our opponent then if we bluff every gutshot we might be wildly overbluffing and have a horrible time defending against check raises.
Essentially I've given you a really long winded answer saying don't study hands or hand classes, instead study ranges, the biggest single leap you can make in your poker career is changing mentally from playing your hand to playing your range. If you have any further, (hopefully slightly more specific haha) questions I'm happy to help.
Sept. 10, 2019 | 3:42 a.m.
To be fair if we did want to find a patter we could extrapolate from this that we barrel suited hands more than offsuit ones although in terms of tangible effect on win rate it might be pretty minor. That said you're completely right that this stuff is pretty far down the rabbit hole and not really that helpful to your strategy especially compared to the other ways you could spend your time. I think the break through moment for me in terms of using solvers was understanding that staring at the grids trying to memorise them was probably the least effective part of my work with them.
Sept. 10, 2019 | 3:20 a.m.
I'd be wary about using pio for live play in this spot because paired boards are very badly played in general, people will not raise you enough and will slow play trips all the time which pio doesn't model. I'm definitely range betting when the board pairs high though, I just think you run into problems because you try to thin value someone because pio says they have to call wide because they don't have many trips but they actually do.
Sept. 9, 2019 | 12:28 a.m.
So I'm really struggling to find a difference between AhTc and AhTh. The other hands you'd like to unblock the backdoor diamonds flushes that villain may have floated and will fold on the turn, I'd be interested to see what pio does with AsTx. The best I can come up with and this is pure spitballing is that we're expecting a fold from ATcc/ss/dd here so having AhTh means they can have AcTc whilst having AhTc means they can't so it's 1 less combo that we fold which might be enough for pio to prefer it when it gets really into the fine details of maximising it's EV.
Maybe check the EV difference between betting the 2, if it is in fact super small this could well be the case but if it's bigger then there's got to be a better explanation but I can't think of it.
Sept. 9, 2019 | 12:19 a.m.
If I'm remembering it correctly my coach explained it to me as we only get to bet for protection when we have a range advantage but there are caveats to this. It's basically just that when your range advantage is a result of a few strong hands then those hands gain too much EV from a big and polar sizing so betting with a wider range for a smaller sizing sacrifices EV. We can often still bet with mixed sizings but we have to be stricter in terms of what we get for value as we're not going to have all the nut combos in our range protecting us from being raised (we should have some at a small frequency) so the hands which are betting more for protection and less for value get cut out and we just check these instead to bluff catch on later streets. Basically as I understand it the more merged our range is the more we get to bet for protection, if we're in a spot where our value hands want to polarise and you start betting for protection as well the smaller sizing will get raised a lot and your checking range becomes incredibly weak. If you look at the graph for the equity of your range vs villains range when your line just sits consistently a few percentage points about villain then that's typically a spot with a lot of protection betting.
Sept. 7, 2019 | 12:13 a.m.
I feel like you want to go bigger with your value on the turn, not too familiar with how pio would play this kind of spot but villain is probably pretty uncapped when they check to you just recognising that it's a good card for your range so I feel like we more have a nuts advantage with our trips combos and the fact that we have a greater proportion of flushes rather than a dispersed equity advantage that allows us to start betting for protection. I think I'm probably going to check this combo and bluff catch on the river with it on almost any card (maybe not an ace but that's it) because I'd rather be more polar in a spot like this. There is also the question of what your checking range looks like if you're not checking this, villain could conceivably value bet AK on the river if you start doing this with your pocket pairs.
Sept. 3, 2019 | 7:54 p.m.
Generally there is very little raising in 3B pots especially in position when we can get the money in on later streets, you might want to check your sim again
Sept. 1, 2019 | 1:39 a.m.
When you do bet you're repping a very nutted range though because we're going to check a lot of trips so I do see some argument for just going super big and polar. Could just check range and have a check raise here with AQ+ given that it's a good card for villains range.
Sept. 1, 2019 | 12:52 a.m.
I think you need to know that villain doesn't do this with AQ/KK before you start calling all those hands better call downs imo because you may be ahead of villains value range depending on how thin they're going. That said I think this is a fold, blocks flush draws, AK/AT and AQ in case they were doing that for value and IP in a 3B pot you're going to have some strong hands here like straights, sets and 2 pair so I think letting this go is fine.
Sept. 1, 2019 | 12:39 a.m.
The JJ shove is an equity realisation thing I think, just benefits so much from not being forced to fold by the draws on later streets, it's a bit of a weird one though and I really struggle personally implementing those merged raises into my game.
Also just a note on exploiting, I've heard a general rule is you get to stray x% from GTO where x is the confidence in your read so if you're in a spot where you're not confident what villain is doing then you need to stay very close to theory until you know what's going on.
Sept. 1, 2019 | 12:31 a.m.
So first things first I think you should check this on the flop, it's not strong enough to bet for value multiway and when we're OOP to the button we want to have a fairly low betting frequency anyway. Also we need to consider what our checking range looks like because we're going to be doing so much of that, if we never check our Qx here we get bullied when we check so whilst the EV for this hand might actually be fairly similar if we start betting at too high a frequency then our range as a whole will suffer in spots like this.
On the turn I think we should be checking quite a lot because button is going to have a lot of Qx here with their condensed calling range and your overpairs are no longer nutted so I'm fine with checking this combo. When button bets they're repping a polarised range of trips+ (which you're behind or chopping with because they never have Q9) and draws so I really don't like the raise, button can just continue with their trips+ and fold the rest of their hands. I think you've got too caught up in your absolute hand strength rather than considering relative hand strength.
On the river I would never get here with this combo I think so not sure what our range looks like but I'm probably going to check this then call or fold depending on sizing and reads but all of the draws completed and all of buttons trips were ahead anyway so I think I'm going to let this go as it's probably actually the bottom of our range at this point.
Sept. 1, 2019 | 12:27 a.m.
Card removal is so prevalent here that I think if we want to start overbetting it has to be tighter than QT because they're only going to call down their trips so we're going to get it in behind a lot, this is really accentuated by all the combos of AQo and potentially KQo that button will have. If you want to overbet something like AQ/KQ+ and then have a protected checking range that kind of invites them to go nuts and stack themselves against you I think that works as well.
Sept. 1, 2019 | 12:18 a.m.
If he has a flatting range against 3B that just makes this scarier imo because very rarely do live players fully 4B bluff and so you're probably doing very poorly against his range with JJ. I tend to go on the assumption that no one at the table is capable of 4B bluffing until they show me otherwise.
Hand 2 That tiny 4B OOP is scary, live I tend to just get away from QQ facing a 4B and especially a cold 4B against 2 uncapped ranges. Also take into account that they also know the HJ is likely to ship it light, they're not doing this to try and get 2 folds is essentially what I'm seeing here so I'd lay down the QQ.
Sept. 1, 2019 | 12:13 a.m.
Fair enough man but balanced overbetting range and random river min clicking just weren't meshing together in my head for some reason, idk maybe I'm just closed minded or something haha
Aug. 29, 2019 | 6:02 p.m.
Yeah pre this raise is too big, you're just letting people continue with only their strong stuff you want people to have to play wide ranges against your strong hands, stealing the blinds is nice but is not the sole objective of preflop strategy we're more interested in people putting in money that they're not going to get back out of the pot on average. Flop we should bet our entire range for a small sizing on this board as we have a significant range advantage, turn I would double barrel and use and overbet sizing but I don't imagine that you're using overbets in your game yet and river I would give up with this combo and triple barrel stuff like QT preferably no diamonds for another overbet.
As played I don't really know what your plan is on river, you're not folding any pair and you're not getting called by worse so I don't like it.
Aug. 29, 2019 | 12:55 p.m.
Forget your feelings, 3 combos of 55 compared to 4 combos KQ, 4 combos QJ and 3 combos AQ for you to chop sometimes. It's a call.