Range bet is very rare as OOP raiser vs IP flat because equities often run very close and the value of position means that you're quite limited in terms of the amount of money that you can safely put into the pot on earlier streets. This hand can go either way but I think x/c is fine.
May 23, 2020 | 4:11 p.m.
x/c river because they have spades a lot and I want them to stack themselves.
Thin turn 3b is defo too light as said but that's dependent on them slow playing the flop appropriately as they should check around 25% of straights/sets and 50% of overpairs and 2 pairs so when you start fighting against a balanced flop x back and turn raise range your hand is kind of in trouble. If they just bet all their value hands then I think it's fine, they just have a combo draw most likely, sometimes you run into 22 but that's not really a problem.
Re-raising range should be straights without a fd, some sets and then for bluffs you basically just pick non sdv combo draws, queen high or worse in terms of sdv is fine just because the higher sdv ones can profitably call. You can also throw in some T8 if you want because you can cooler their 8xss when you hit a nine.
May 23, 2020 | 4:04 p.m.
I would reserve the increased aggression for when people don't pick a sizing that indicates a polar range. This is because when people polarise the flop that usually just means draws and value hands which are all at least floating one street to a x/r, you won't see enough stuff like a K7 with a bdfd here that you can get folds from.
When you do x/r super wide to exploit an overfold in theory I think you should probably range check every turn that doesn't improve a lot of your bluffs and that's because you have a range significantly weaker than at equilibrium and your opponent has a range that is significantly stronger. So if you do want to start implementing this kind of aggression you should get familiar with double x/r, x/r to x/c turn and how to play the river after x/r flop then turn x/x. These lines are actually super interesting imo and very under studied, should also give you ideas for areas where your villains are potentially making mistakes on future streets after they x/r, for instance maybe they never double x/r so they value bet too often on the turn but also their turn x is always a give up so you can overfold to the barrel knowing that you get to pick up the pot very often the times when they x this node.
May 23, 2020 | 3:42 p.m.
I don't know population tendencies at these stakes but generally on boards like this I expect to see a lot of people overbluffing the turn because they've just got too many draws to choose from and are unlikely to be using a randomiser so may well just bet all of them. If you want to just by default overfold every single board because pop isn't bluffing enough that's definitely fine but I think there's edge to be had in getting a bit stickier on these boards where people might find a bit too much aggression.
May 23, 2020 | 3:31 p.m.
I don't really tend to see this in the sims that I've run and I think it could be a product of the ranges that you use as you tend to have people flatting wider than is optimal which leads to higher frequency smaller cb for thin value/protection. Solvers don't really care about "tough spots" to put hands into, that's sort of ascribing a human thinking process about poker to them which they just don't have, it makes a decent exploitative argument if you think someone will play said tough spot inaccurately but it's not really why these things arise out of a game theory perspective.
May 23, 2020 | 3:24 p.m.
Yeah the thing is though if you remove 88 which is a fairly natural continue then they only need to continue 35% of their underpairs according to my sim so yeah some people will fold all of them but also some people will call all of them meaning that it's more a specific exploit to a person than something you can confidently say will generally exploit the population.
The set isn't a value bet it's just that on the river you can check back and win something like 15% of the time so sometimes you do pick up the pot whereas you have hands like this with 0% showdown value that make better bluffs.
In terms of overbet vs regular sizing I can't really see a pattern that would be easy to internalise because it's just mixing with everything and people probably won't notice it if you don't do it so it's not too big an issue. It's more relevant for when you're calling down in these spots if you see that someone has 2 sizings on the river and you realise that their bigger sizing might be exclusively AK because they don't want to just jam a king and chop when they could bet smaller to maybe get some value and they also don't want to bluff when they run into a straight so often so maybe you can make some hero folds if you have a good read. Basically I don't think it's important to get a spot like this technically correct on your end but the conceptual understanding of what someone needs to do to make you indifferent to calling on these 4 straight boards if they do want to jam their nut straights is important because it can let you get away from it if they play too face up on rivers especially at deeper sprs where they might be jamming something like 5x the pot.
May 22, 2020 | 1:28 p.m.
I think you should at least check your assumption that pop overfolds to the small sizing on this board, they have very automatic defends with any Jx and Kx with a backdoor flushdraw is also a pretty intuitive find so I don't think that people are going to miss too much of the continue range here. They only need to do some low frequency calling with Kx no bdfd, Ax bdfd and underpairs to the board which maybe people will just fold here but that's not a massive mistake and I'm honestly not confident that it will happen because people love a 1 street float with ace high at low stakes and folding a pair on the flop is pretty much blasphemy to a lot of people especially vs the small sizing.
All that being said I like the way the hand is played, your SDV is still essentially 0 when you pair up and you've got on of your lowest equity hands on the turn so it's definitely right to bluff this at some frequency and it gets even better when you think that villains don't recognise that they should check their entire range on the J turn as they might continue to barrel some Kx or raise too much of it giving them no river calls. Something interesting that you get to do on these turns is semi bluff your sets. Basically you bet them and occasionally get floated by a worse hand which you can beat at showdown by checking back river and sometimes you boat up to stack a king.
With regards to river play, your sizing is fine for most of your bluffs and Kx but you should also incorporate a jam sizing with some Kx all your AK and then a low frequency with your bluffs but the Kx kind of functions as a semi bluff where you're jamming it expecting to chop a lot but it's to make their Kx indifferent to calling the jam because they sometimes take the whole pot vs a bluff, chop a lot of the time and then get stacked by your AK so they can't cheat and fold their straights to the jam knowing that you only jam in your AK here. Also villain can unexploitably fold some 2 pair on the turn so depending on the type of villain you're up against they could have run out of hands to fold by this node and you might be running into just Kx and should give up with all your bluffs as an exploit.
May 21, 2020 | 4:36 p.m.
It does happen where you want to unblock the folding range, one example is sometimes when you're raising on the river when the flush has come in where you actually don't want the nut flush blocker because their bluffs contain that card more frequently than their value bets so you actually value other flush blockers more. Very often though this isn't too prevalent an effect to worry about though and you should be more focused on getting a roughly right ratio and being tuned in to whether your opponents are nitting up or stationing off at this node. That being said I think here you don't want clubs because you don't block Qxs that calls and you do block Jxs that folds so if you're getting into dividing between combos you can use same suit as the top card as a negative modifier (i.e: make you play more passively and give up) and you can use same suit as the second card as a positive modifier to be more aggressive with although here that would mean you block the missed flush draw so it's more relevant on rainbow boards.
May 21, 2020 | 4 p.m.
Wouldn't know in terms of a video, the way I do it is typically by just taking a flop to represent some group of flops (say J86ss to represent J high, dynamic, no flopped straight) and going into the solver to look at the strategy and look for the cutoff hands then just use feel to work out if people are meeting them over the table. If you think that people never call worse than top pair vs your turn overbet and the solver is saying that they should be getting sticky with a fair bit of 8x then you've got a node to go nuts on until they start showing you the middle pair at showdown there. There is a bit more nuance to this because you might want to consider something like "have they overfolded or under raised on an earlier street making their range easier to defend here?" or even the opposite "have they raised too many strong hands or floated too wide on an earlier street meaning that the GTO defense leaves them overfolding?"
The essence of exploitative over aggression is getting used to asking these kind of questions and understanding how their likely ranges will differ. A lot of the nodes that you'll want to look for are the non main line ones, yes the example I gave often rings true at low stakes but your red line is more likely to thrive in spots where they've taken passive action and don't have any 'comfortable' call downs like when you float flop and they miss turn CB so they're capped to a weak top pair at best and you overbet stab the river and they fold maybe their entire range except if they hit a 2 pair or something on the river. This is much more likely to work than just shoving your stack in on the river against their triple barrel where they have plenty of natural call downs to pick from. Basically if you want red line to be crushing then you need to understand call down ranges and you need to be comfortable putting in loads of money into the pot whenever you think they're not going to call the cusp hand to make your bluffs break even.
May 19, 2020 | 5:35 p.m.
At 25nl really strong redline results is pretty achievable imo but you need to get really familiar with the nodes that people overfold and honestly if you're good enough to do that and correctly exploit it you're not going to be at 25nl for long so on the one hand I want to say that hyper aggression in low stakes games can be very profitable when executed properly with a plan but if you're capable of doing that then you might as well play 100nl+.
May 19, 2020 | 11:09 a.m.
So first off what BigFiszch has said is definitely worth looking at. That said, I think it's much more valuable to have a fluency and understanding of likely/potential mistakes that people will make against one sizing than to work on playing 2 sizings. The EV gains of correctly exploiting a mistake that you identify are a lot bigger than the passive EV that you gain from executing a mixed strategy perfectly as opposed to a pure one.
There are definitely flops where 2 sizings is advantageous and where you can point to mistakes that people make against 2 sizings (possibly as a result of not realising that you're using a more complex strategy) but that's fairly high hanging fruit and I think there are just more important things to be working on.
May 17, 2020 | 7:02 p.m.
If BB is "on the tighter side" then do you really think they're balanced here? Against a sicko that realises that you want to overfold to exploit pool here you just have to go with it so they don't run you over but against a tight reg they're just going to have loads of nut flushes to jam in on you here and they won't have the creativity/aggression to get it in with enough bluffs. Also sickos that jam for these small edges in scary spots where they can run into the nuts fairly often tend to move up in stakes fairly quickly.
May 17, 2020 | 4:14 p.m.
I think pocket pairs might be a better defend than a hand like A8 on turn because you have boat outs to stack trips and they're polarised to a ten so they all have the same showdown value.
I think on river there's a chance that overpairs no club make better call downs than 8x as well because you want to block the strongest Tx or Tx with a draw that will continue to barrel turn and value bet river whereas 8x blocks nothing, same goes for the good straight it blocks the QT/JT. Not 100% on this and haven't run through pio but I think they either have Tx or air here so all these hands are identical. Honestly though I think if you're up against a weak reg you can just fold all of this because people don't try to make you fold when your range looks this strong, this kind of thinking can let a good reg exploit you by realising that you're only calling Tx in these spots but weak regs will probably just give up too often on river so you can "lose the node" when they bet by overfolding because you know you get to realise too much equity on the river without fighting back against this line anyway.
May 17, 2020 | 4:05 p.m.
Fried mulders while playing some 50nl said that he was expecting them to be making the mistakes the 500nl was 2 years ago. Even if you just have a solid understanding of the game and you watch some videos from 5 years ago you realise just how much the game has progressed. What used to be cutting edge exploitative play at the highest stakes you can now see from mid stakes grinders. So yeah, poker's pretty hard and getting harder but in 5 years time they'll talk about the games now with the same rose tinted glasses that we talk about poker from a few years ago now.
May 11, 2020 | 6:40 p.m.
If you copy and paste that into pio should show you it. It's definitely looser than your range but it still has some strong hands like QQ/AKo but this is to be expected as there's a big difference in terms of 2.2x vs 3x open. I don't have a solved flatting range vs a 3x open because it's so narrow you should just play 3b or fold. Your flatting range is fairly close to what you can flat vs a 2.5x but again it's too capped and you've got too many underpairs which are pretty low ev hands on this board so when you take this in combination with the fact that your opening range is tighter it's just gonna end up betting a lot.
May 6, 2020 | 5:28 a.m.
Against a 3x open I don't think that flatting in position is too much of a thing, you're just getting pretty bad odds to call and can't take down the pot preflop so typically strategies will tend towards 3B or fold and I think especially vs a LJ 3x opening range which needs to be very tight I think that the range you have calling is too capped and too loose.
I ran a sim using solved ranges for no rake, 2.2BB open with the button having the option to flat or raise to 8BB. OOP was betting 35% of the time for the 60% sizing I offered it and wasn't using the small one. I think what you're running for the ranges might be fine if you want to model to exploit a loose passive preflop player pool but it's not really how you want to be playing against a strong regular.
May 5, 2020 | 12:36 a.m.
The hand that really wants to do this is AKo, every other hand that jams just does it to make that range a little harder to play against (i.e: stop you getting 3B and called off by every pocket pair without a second thought) so it's a lot of AKo, some KK and some QQ. Realistically though just do this with AKo until you see someone call you light then you can throw in the QQ/KK to get some value.
May 1, 2020 | 3:34 p.m.
Turn x as long as you're going to x/r all in is alright, I think people stab too wide for value/protection on almost every texture and you need to exploit this by x/r wide for value and as a bluff. A-high tends to be a minor exception in that people on the whole get a bit more passive and some just see ghosts because you just rep all this AK that they don't so you may just be missing value here but I think at least testing this node vs players from time to time to see if there's an exploit you can run is valuable (but somehow they're completely fine over stabbing turn on king high boards? I think it might be because it's so easy for you to x/c a weak top pair so they don't go for the small protection bet with their underpairs). Also the x/r hearts vs non hearts thing I haven't checked this in a solver but I think you're supposed to x/r more when not holding hearts because there's more equity denial to be had from folding out flushdraws or just stacking top pair + nfd / AQ now instead of letting them see a river and evaluate, also if you fold out a worse flush draw by going for a x/r with AhKh then that's quite a significant EV mistake as you don't get to stack them on heart rivers. We also need to consider the bet/call line, essentially there are more run outs where AhKh is happy to have put more money in the pot that this hand because say a heart were to peel then you'd much rather have bet your hearts and checked your naked ace king. So with all that said I think I'm much more inclined to just bet my hearts and x this hand. Essentially the protection from flushes doesn't come from betting because they just call but we can get protection via a x/r and we don't want to 'protect' a hand that can cooler lots of different hands on various run outs.
River I'm inclined to go bigger, I just want to max value vs Ax here that realistically can't fold so I'd go for around pot, definitely folding to the raise at these stakes though, I don't think villains are creative or observant enough to realise that you're drastically overfolding here and that they should be going psycho to take advantage of it.
April 29, 2020 | 8:02 p.m.
Preflop I don't thin k you should be overcalling this hand, it doesn't play particularly well multiway and the rake at 25nl is way too high to voluntarily get involved in small edger multiway spots.
Flop I think is fine, can make arguments for various sizings, really depends how wide your value range is going to be here and it's quite nice to have not put too much money in the pot already when you do run into a 2 pair+ hand because you've still got some room to manoeuvre.
Turn your line is fine but your thinking is wrong, you want to bet more with a heart here than without, basically you want to prioritise hands with higher equity in the lines with more money in the pot. Essentially there's too many run outs (heart rivers) where you'd much rather have the KxQh that this outweighs your desire for protection. That said I'm fine checking both, it's just a small detail that will probably have wider relevance to your game. Essentially you get to bet for protection when you have a significant range advantage that is spread out across your entire range - think you open, get called by the BB and the flop comes k-high and dry - even your air is relatively speaking better than theirs because when you miss you still tend to have opened high cards so every hand in your range has an equity advantage vs the equivalent hand in theirs and therefore you get to bet for protection. You don't get to bet for protection very often once someone has called a bet as typically at this point their range will have caught up/overtaken yours unless the turn card is incredibly good for you. Just to make the point really simple if you were asked which hand do you want to value bet and you were just show the equity numbers of each hand you'd pick the one with the higher number. There are exceptions when equities are similar vs the calling range but different vs the folding range as then a hand with slightly worse equity vs calls but significantly worse vs the folds will be more inclined to bet (think weak vs strong overpair) because it denies more equity but here that isn't the case, KxQh has much higher equity vs calls and similar equity vs folds I'd imagine because you're primarily folding out worse pairs no heart.
I think there's probably enough natural bluffs in terms of AhQx, AhJx and AxJh that I'm fine bluff catching here but if the fish is super loose passive then they might just have every flush here and be too weighted towards value or they might just check their ace high for its non existent showdown. So yeah I'm fine calling this off but just be careful about using the general term 'fish' as it just means someone who makes lots of mistakes and yeah you can pick up your passive EV by just playing better poker than them but by understanding their specific leaks and exploiting them appropriately you can get away from spots like this if they are in fact never bluffing.
April 29, 2020 | 7:40 p.m.
Was assuming a bigger 4B given you're out of position, something around 25BB which would make the decision a lot closer, as played happy enough 4B folding this.
April 28, 2020 | 9:18 p.m.
JJ has 36% vs QQ+/AK so if you 4B and face a jam from the CO then I think you might have to call this one off depending on your 4B sizing even giving them no bluffs as you'll have a pretty much break even call if it's only premiums but a +EV call if they ever trap AA, bluff or jam too merged.
Cold 4B folding is also allowed and not the end of the world particularly if you think that you face a 5B from premiums and only premiums 100% of the time because then you just have the effective nuts when you get called. There are other implications to account for when you give them a shoving range of QQ+/AK, they don't just get to shove all those hands forcing you to fold and still have them in their range when you go post flop and the moment they start mixing in some calls with their high pocket pairs then you have an easy call to the jam. This is actually something to make note of in game, if someone doesn't 5B bluff but you see them also flatting AA/KK to trap against 4B a lot then call offs with more marginal stuff like JJ/TT become a lot more profitable (particularly if they don't jam JJ themselves with regards to TT)
April 28, 2020 | 3:41 p.m.
When they're betting big and often it's just going to be lots of top pair and high equity draws, there's not going to be too much overcards, backdoors or the more merged middle/bottom pair stuff so the more merged x/r like middle pair top kicker or with some backdoors that we sometimes try to showdown or sometimes keep on barrelling isn't going to be worth putting in because it just doesn't do well versus that range.
You want to be including these hands a lot when someone is playing too high a betting frequency but with a less polarised range so that you can deny equity from stuff like overcards or get value from dominated middle/bottom pairs.
In terms of whether to draw bluffs from backdoor equity vs direct equity I think that reducing the amount that we x/r stuff that is reliant on immediate flop folds to profit is fairly reasonable because you're going to get floated a lot by the range I described on the flop but it can still be nice to have some board coverage with bluffs/value bets over lots of runouts and not just when the obvious draws bink. Also a lot of the time when you x/r into this range you're going to want to have a high turn x freq and x/f the turn with a lot of strong draws is something that you want to avoid if possible.
April 26, 2020 | 8:43 p.m.
So just looking at a sim theoretically they should have 1.3 combos of boats and 9.1 combos of overpairs and they need to call 6.9 combos to make your bluffs 0 EV to a river x/r which essentially means that the line is drawn at 99, if they fold this hand your bluff prints and if they call it you're roughly 0ev, if they also call 88 then you're losing money. This isn't going to be entirely accurate as someone may have less/more trips or strong overpairs than they should but I think it's a good baseline to start from unless you have another read to go off, essentially if you think there's more than a 50% chance that you can get 88/99 to fold by ripping it here then this bluff is +EV (50% calls with 88 and 99 just about gets it to break even) so you should take it instead of folding every time if you think your villain is incapable of adjusting properly or even just do it until you get caught then use your psycho cred to get paid. Realistically I think the line where most villains start calling here is closer to JJ than 99 so I'd be fairly happy to pull the trigger here and would be absolutely buzzing to go steal this pot away with some better blockers but I don't really think they're necessary to tip this one over the edge.
I think this is a spot which scares people because they don't like just running into it and avoiding bad outcomes is too prevalent in peoples thinking but I just think you have to get in there, get stacked a few times and come away at the end realising that you've got more money than if you decided to shy away from the spot every time.
In game all that goes through my head here is "what's the rough hand they need to call to make me indifferent to bluffing? Does villain have the balls to call off with that hand?" Yeah it's kind of inelegant psycho poker but you've got to punish people for not making 0EV plays, balance can come later when they actually start playing back at you a bit.
EDIT: just saw the SPR is a bit higher as I was running at 100BB not 150BB so in that case I think it's actually a lot closer because they probably only need to call TT+ pure and then some of 99. Might let this one go in that case although honestly still tempted, when the jam get's bigger I think you're really looking at folding all overpairs but you just become a lot more vulnerable to counter exploitation from turn trapping so mixed feelings about this one really and could just let it go.
April 26, 2020 | 3:23 a.m.
Attack their ranges in other lines, if they CB too much but x/r isn't profitable (or any more so than usual) it means that they have expanded their CB range with both more value and bluffs so you're not going to see more EV in this specific line. The correct approach is to get very aggressive when they miss CB or they check back the turn because their ranges in these lines will be weaker than they should be so you can go for very thin value and aggressively with bluffs also. This doesn't mean you stop x/r because it's important to maintain aggression here to get value with your premium hands but maybe play a slightly more polar range than you would usually.
April 24, 2020 | 11:57 p.m.
No, it's literally just the ranges and whilst I do advocate for learning theory over just memorising solver outputs with preflop it's not that important particularly if you're just focusing on RFI, yes it will help but you can get the majority of what you're looking for without it.