DanDanDanDan's avatar


278 points

51% is the AVERAGE rb everyone will receive, in the short term there will be variance but if you play long enough then mathematics ensure that you will be hovering somewhere around 51%.

RIO won't 'make sure' everyone gets a fair share of the pie any more than they will 'make sure' you ever get dealt AA again.

Feb. 2, 2019 | 7:43 p.m.

@quido still you?

camikaze007 you're not entitled to a good and fair service at all lol. You're not entitled to anything.

Feb. 2, 2019 | 6:18 p.m.

I know that Phil knows that negative people and negative comments are more likely to write and be written than positive ones, but still I can't actually get over some of the spoiled and entitled comments I've read here and on twitter. People are insane.

Feb. 2, 2019 | 11:56 a.m.

The casual player won't feel entitled to 51% lol, that's actually a meh pro mindset.

Feb. 2, 2019 | 11:51 a.m.

Splash the pot is such an amazing and sick idea for so so many reasons. Genius. Love everything about this site already. Let's go!

Jan. 31, 2019 | 6:04 p.m.

Your results are not 'skewed' by tilt, instead they are inseparable from it.

This, imo, is the key delusion you have to get over. You are not 'good at poker, except that I either tilt or can't put in any volume', instead, the skill of 'poker' IS the ability to play well and do so often.

If you can't play well and often, then you are not good at poker.

I don't say this to deject you, rather to get you to face reality. The separation of technical and mental game is a falsehood, in the same way scientists spent centuries trying to work out how 'energy' moves 'matter' whilst forgetting that it was only science divided them up in the first place.

Once you see reality, the way forward will be much clearer.

Jan. 28, 2019 | 11:44 a.m.

Phil you are my favourite person.

Nov. 20, 2018 | 11:03 a.m.

Hello visiting Los Angeles for a little while. I went to the casino, and I saw the massive amounts of rake taken out of the pot. Since I'm not sure about all of the casinos, I think it's safe to say that they are taking $7 out of every single pot. We can say 30 hands an hour. It may actually be more like they take out $6 on average, or $5 50. With that being the case, they are taking $180 off the table per hour in rake. That doesn't account for various tips or anything either and sometimes there's a dollar jackpot which goes back to the players and maybe you shouldn't, but maybe you should count that as rake. Let's assume there is $600 per 100 hands that is taken off of the table. There are 9 players of the table. At $3 / $5, that is 14 BB / 100 At $5 / $10, that is 7 big Blinds / 100. At $10 / $20, that is 3.5 BB / 100.

I'm very familiar with the optimal defending ranges with a 6bb / 100 rake structure, and a 3bb/100 rake structure with preflop raise sizes between 2X and 3 X. I'm not familiar with how to defend against 4X, and 5X come in 4.5 x open sizes. I also don't really know how to quantify how much my skill Edge being from an online background and it made mid-stakes will change the expected value of certain hands preflop from an optimal opponent simulations were based off of. In addition to that, I see a lot of people using very large preflop sizes. In 6 max I've seen simulations where we really shouldn't be opening more than 13% from EP if we choose a 3X raisee sizing. I don't think this is too applicable for these games, but I would really love to get some ideas on what some strong players believe or good strategies for live poker etcetera.

1. Whats optimal raise and preflop sizing in these games?
(People dont 3bet enough. 4bet enough, call way too wide etc, allow us to realize a lot more equity)

  1. How do we defend in BB vs various raise sizes and quantify our skill edge

(say K3s is a fold vs 20% rfi 3x raise size against an optimal opponent with 6bb/100 rake, where do we find the threshold and quantify our skill difference.)

  1. Does the fact they take $6 on thr flop rather than take a % than cap it off change our strategy much, and if so how?

  2. What are good strategies for IP cold calls/3bets when they rfi 4x, 5x, etc

  3. Anyone have ideas on winrates for these games for a 3-4bb/100 winner at 200nl zoom pokerstars.

  4. Anyone have any good links or sites to learn about transitioning from online to live?
    (I have been thinking of spending half the year in the United States, and it seems like my hourly would be significantly High and a casino. Does anybody have any experience with moving from online to live?)
    Thank you very much, any responses are appreciated

Nov. 18, 2018 | 7:56 p.m.

Do you mind posting your results or leaving a link to them?

Oct. 4, 2018 | 7:29 p.m.

Also people don't expect you to fold KJ or QJ, so........

Oct. 3, 2018 | 11:43 a.m.

3way flop, bet, no flushdraws, no implieds on the bink (probably negative implieds) you can fold.

Oct. 2, 2018 | 5:49 p.m.

As someone still trying to de-program from 2014 500nlz logic, this vid was very helpful :-).

Noob question though re the 98 river spot (he had fullhouse) and we discuss overbetting as a better option (seemingly in a vacuum?). I ran the spot and PIO doesn't like a super large size, is it the case then, that although a larger size may appear higher EV in a vacuum, that the increased cost of bluffing negates this and so it can't be balanced?

A super large size doesn't sit right with me, intuitively.

Sept. 26, 2018 | 11:51 p.m.

Do what every reg does and go big with value then bet 1/3 with weak hands while kidding themselves they're 'betting range 1/3'.

Sept. 19, 2018 | 12:20 a.m.

Just to push this a bit more, if there's any downsides to 72 game in general I'd like to hear them.

* Already ingrained into poker culture.
* Thwarts bots a bit.
* Entertaining for casual player.
* Less robotic games, higher aggressive and fun dynamic.
* 5bet jamming 72, binking trips and scooping the bounty pot too is a great feeling that I want to experience again :-)

Aug. 29, 2018 | 7:16 p.m.

Yeh exactly, I don't mean a cumulative thing. Just you win a hand with 72, get 2 bbs from everyone.

Aug. 29, 2018 | 7:12 p.m.

Post | DanDanDanDan posted in Chatter: Ideas Thread (potentially)

There's a few ideas I've wanted to put out there so here goes:

The 72 game. UB and Absolute Poker used to have '72' tables where everyone tabled 2bbs every hand and if you won a hand with 7-2 you won the bounty. Lead to an insane and entertaining dynamic, and in this day and age would also thwart bots somewhat.

On the subject of bots, I think in future online poker might need something like a rotation of slight rule tweaks, so jokers wild, or an extra suit, that kinda thing.

That is all.

Aug. 23, 2018 | 11:55 p.m.

Yes you're definitely at the top of your range, so cannot fold.

May 16, 2018 | 10:06 a.m.

Just wanted to say Phil that I think a substantial silent majority of people love almost everything about the new site, your whole approach to it, and your general engagement on here.

Contented people are obv less likely to post of course :-P

May 15, 2018 | 11:42 p.m.

When the pot gets big and the board doesn't change, fish (and mosr regs for that matter) don't fold much. Whatever the technical reasons, psychologically it's just that people make their commitment decision prior to the pot getting big, in this case on the turn.

April 1, 2018 | 12:32 a.m.

Background, I'm a longtime winning Zoom player from 100 through 500. I'm looking for a coach with a well above average win-rate in the blinds, probably more specifically bvb spots etc. If anyone knows of anyone please point them this way <<. Thanks.

March 27, 2018 | noon

Compassion for oneself.

Jan. 8, 2018 | 10:33 a.m.

You must see that the problem is entirely in your (somewhat warped) perception of these players, and not the players themselves? They're not being 'impolite' lol, they're just doing their own thing.

Dec. 31, 2017 | 6:03 p.m.

What would you say is the true, deep down answer as to why these guys annoy you so much?

Dec. 30, 2017 | 7:18 p.m.

Mate I made an almost identical thread around 7 years ago on 2p2. Groggyness, brain fog, I could play basically only first thing in the morning for 45 mins or so..

One thing fixed it and one thing only. And that one thing is * drum roll *.......

Cutting out gluten completely. After years of those exact symptoms it just stopped. And whenever I've occasionally slipped and started to eat it again it comes back.

Hopefully this is true for you too, cos it's annoying but easy to fix.

Nov. 16, 2017 | 1:06 p.m.

Well AK on the river you'd bet yourself, but that's not a reason in itself to call this hand.

IMO villain goes too polar with his size in the sense that metagame-wise I think we can rule out 2-pairs.

I'd actually look him up here based on that and just what I think he's trying to achieve going the enormous size (I have a good winrate at 100z on Stars).

Nov. 7, 2017 | 7:01 p.m.

River can be smaller, 80% pot is fine (and do it quickly).

Nov. 7, 2017 | 6:54 p.m.

Comment | DanDanDanDan commented on Leading Flops

Really great vid this, thanks for making it. Part 2!

Oct. 30, 2017 | 1:27 p.m.

Yeah I go play £1-£1 like 1am-close to sober up whenever I've been drinking in town and I haven't lost yet, yes rake's high but people just give you their money.

Oct. 15, 2017 | 11:58 p.m.

Really good post, thanks for this!

I've tons of examples of my own, but a common one I think about is that some players when facing a bet on the river seem to see it as a black/ white situation, ie they're either right, or they're wrong. This causes a cognitive bias where they want to be 50% sure in their head in order to call (particularly when the pot is big), when obviously the pot odds usually require something closer to 25%.

I recognised this in myself a long while ago, and can still 'feel' in players today, even up to 200z.

Oct. 13, 2017 | 1:06 p.m.

I don't play PLO but enjoyed this.

Oct. 2, 2017 | 9:20 p.m.

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