DanDanDanDan's avatar


263 points

Phil you are my favourite person.

Nov. 20, 2018 | 11:03 a.m.

Hello visiting Los Angeles for a little while. I went to the casino, and I saw the massive amounts of rake taken out of the pot. Since I'm not sure about all of the casinos, I think it's safe to say that they are taking $7 out of every single pot. We can say 30 hands an hour. It may actually be more like they take out $6 on average, or $5 50. With that being the case, they are taking $180 off the table per hour in rake. That doesn't account for various tips or anything either and sometimes there's a dollar jackpot which goes back to the players and maybe you shouldn't, but maybe you should count that as rake. Let's assume there is $600 per 100 hands that is taken off of the table. There are 9 players of the table. At $3 / $5, that is 14 BB / 100 At $5 / $10, that is 7 big Blinds / 100. At $10 / $20, that is 3.5 BB / 100.

I'm very familiar with the optimal defending ranges with a 6bb / 100 rake structure, and a 3bb/100 rake structure with preflop raise sizes between 2X and 3 X. I'm not familiar with how to defend against 4X, and 5X come in 4.5 x open sizes. I also don't really know how to quantify how much my skill Edge being from an online background and it made mid-stakes will change the expected value of certain hands preflop from an optimal opponent simulations were based off of. In addition to that, I see a lot of people using very large preflop sizes. In 6 max I've seen simulations where we really shouldn't be opening more than 13% from EP if we choose a 3X raisee sizing. I don't think this is too applicable for these games, but I would really love to get some ideas on what some strong players believe or good strategies for live poker etcetera.

1. Whats optimal raise and preflop sizing in these games?
(People dont 3bet enough. 4bet enough, call way too wide etc, allow us to realize a lot more equity)

  1. How do we defend in BB vs various raise sizes and quantify our skill edge

(say K3s is a fold vs 20% rfi 3x raise size against an optimal opponent with 6bb/100 rake, where do we find the threshold and quantify our skill difference.)

  1. Does the fact they take $6 on thr flop rather than take a % than cap it off change our strategy much, and if so how?

  2. What are good strategies for IP cold calls/3bets when they rfi 4x, 5x, etc

  3. Anyone have ideas on winrates for these games for a 3-4bb/100 winner at 200nl zoom pokerstars.

  4. Anyone have any good links or sites to learn about transitioning from online to live?
    (I have been thinking of spending half the year in the United States, and it seems like my hourly would be significantly High and a casino. Does anybody have any experience with moving from online to live?)
    Thank you very much, any responses are appreciated

Nov. 18, 2018 | 7:56 p.m.

Do you mind posting your results or leaving a link to them?

Oct. 4, 2018 | 7:29 p.m.

Also people don't expect you to fold KJ or QJ, so........

Oct. 3, 2018 | 11:43 a.m.

3way flop, bet, no flushdraws, no implieds on the bink (probably negative implieds) you can fold.

Oct. 2, 2018 | 5:49 p.m.

As someone still trying to de-program from 2014 500nlz logic, this vid was very helpful :-).

Noob question though re the 98 river spot (he had fullhouse) and we discuss overbetting as a better option (seemingly in a vacuum?). I ran the spot and PIO doesn't like a super large size, is it the case then, that although a larger size may appear higher EV in a vacuum, that the increased cost of bluffing negates this and so it can't be balanced?

A super large size doesn't sit right with me, intuitively.

Sept. 26, 2018 | 11:51 p.m.

Do what every reg does and go big with value then bet 1/3 with weak hands while kidding themselves they're 'betting range 1/3'.

Sept. 19, 2018 | 12:20 a.m.

Just to push this a bit more, if there's any downsides to 72 game in general I'd like to hear them.

* Already ingrained into poker culture.
* Thwarts bots a bit.
* Entertaining for casual player.
* Less robotic games, higher aggressive and fun dynamic.
* 5bet jamming 72, binking trips and scooping the bounty pot too is a great feeling that I want to experience again :-)

Aug. 29, 2018 | 7:16 p.m.

Yeh exactly, I don't mean a cumulative thing. Just you win a hand with 72, get 2 bbs from everyone.

Aug. 29, 2018 | 7:12 p.m.

Post | DanDanDanDan posted in Chatter: Ideas Thread (potentially)

There's a few ideas I've wanted to put out there so here goes:

The 72 game. UB and Absolute Poker used to have '72' tables where everyone tabled 2bbs every hand and if you won a hand with 7-2 you won the bounty. Lead to an insane and entertaining dynamic, and in this day and age would also thwart bots somewhat.

On the subject of bots, I think in future online poker might need something like a rotation of slight rule tweaks, so jokers wild, or an extra suit, that kinda thing.

That is all.

Aug. 23, 2018 | 11:55 p.m.

Yes you're definitely at the top of your range, so cannot fold.

May 16, 2018 | 10:06 a.m.

Just wanted to say Phil that I think a substantial silent majority of people love almost everything about the new site, your whole approach to it, and your general engagement on here.

Contented people are obv less likely to post of course :-P

May 15, 2018 | 11:42 p.m.

When the pot gets big and the board doesn't change, fish (and mosr regs for that matter) don't fold much. Whatever the technical reasons, psychologically it's just that people make their commitment decision prior to the pot getting big, in this case on the turn.

April 1, 2018 | 12:32 a.m.

Background, I'm a longtime winning Zoom player from 100 through 500. I'm looking for a coach with a well above average win-rate in the blinds, probably more specifically bvb spots etc. If anyone knows of anyone please point them this way <<. Thanks.

March 27, 2018 | noon

Compassion for oneself.

Jan. 8, 2018 | 10:33 a.m.

You must see that the problem is entirely in your (somewhat warped) perception of these players, and not the players themselves? They're not being 'impolite' lol, they're just doing their own thing.

Dec. 31, 2017 | 6:03 p.m.

What would you say is the true, deep down answer as to why these guys annoy you so much?

Dec. 30, 2017 | 7:18 p.m.

Mate I made an almost identical thread around 7 years ago on 2p2. Groggyness, brain fog, I could play basically only first thing in the morning for 45 mins or so..

One thing fixed it and one thing only. And that one thing is * drum roll *.......

Cutting out gluten completely. After years of those exact symptoms it just stopped. And whenever I've occasionally slipped and started to eat it again it comes back.

Hopefully this is true for you too, cos it's annoying but easy to fix.

Nov. 16, 2017 | 1:06 p.m.

Well AK on the river you'd bet yourself, but that's not a reason in itself to call this hand.

IMO villain goes too polar with his size in the sense that metagame-wise I think we can rule out 2-pairs.

I'd actually look him up here based on that and just what I think he's trying to achieve going the enormous size (I have a good winrate at 100z on Stars).

Nov. 7, 2017 | 7:01 p.m.

River can be smaller, 80% pot is fine (and do it quickly).

Nov. 7, 2017 | 6:54 p.m.

Comment | DanDanDanDan commented on Leading Flops

Really great vid this, thanks for making it. Part 2!

Oct. 30, 2017 | 1:27 p.m.

Yeah I go play £1-£1 like 1am-close to sober up whenever I've been drinking in town and I haven't lost yet, yes rake's high but people just give you their money.

Oct. 15, 2017 | 11:58 p.m.

Really good post, thanks for this!

I've tons of examples of my own, but a common one I think about is that some players when facing a bet on the river seem to see it as a black/ white situation, ie they're either right, or they're wrong. This causes a cognitive bias where they want to be 50% sure in their head in order to call (particularly when the pot is big), when obviously the pot odds usually require something closer to 25%.

I recognised this in myself a long while ago, and can still 'feel' in players today, even up to 200z.

Oct. 13, 2017 | 1:06 p.m.

I don't play PLO but enjoyed this.

Oct. 2, 2017 | 9:20 p.m.

You say we don't need to raise too many hands on T77r 3bet pot (3min 30seconds in), don't you feel though that without some sort of aggressive action on our part we just end up losing VS trebles a lot when we are the caller of the 3bet? I.e our bluff floats get dominated by their bluff trebles.

I might be mistaken in how I think about this though?

Sept. 28, 2017 | 10:05 p.m.

The BB-BTN K9o check call-down on 943cc To Ao, PIO has him checking his actual bluff hand (87) because as you say in the vid he has too many other draws. Your river call makes a small amount of money :-)

Sept. 26, 2017 | 1:40 p.m.

Re-read the original post. Such great stuff. So hope it sees the light of day.

Sept. 1, 2017 | 8 p.m.

Post | DanDanDanDan posted in Chatter: Processing Thoughts

Hi guys, this might be the wrong place for this, but essentially I feel the need to write a lot for the sake of my (poker) mental health. It'll basically be a sorta blog but cos it's being done to help my tilt problem (by processing the infinite shit going on in my head) but I'm just gonna leave it here for now. It might be a bit of a rant cos I'm a little bit raging. (edit after writing, it also makes me sound fairly crazy :-P )

Bit of background, I'm a long time Zoom 100-500 player on Stars who's recently transitioned to Party FF.

I'd been sorta half struggling all year, no real momentum until a couple of months ago when it was like something just snapped in me. Suddenly sick of 'trying' to attain a Zen sorta place when playing or 'trying' to fucking 'accept' things and trying to 'attain' a conducive 'mindset' when playing (sorry for the Trump-esq quotes but it reflects that I don't really see those words as real things), I was like fuck this, I'm doing it differently from now on.

I had so much fucking rage it was unbelievable, sorta at myself but mainly at all the snidey tilty things my mind comes out with while playing.

You know the type I mean, there's obvious fear based things like 'this guy just knows you to beat you', but then there are a ton more subtle things such as when the turn's a K in a 3bet pot and I have QQ it says 'JJ folds now, can't bet', but when I have a bluff it says 'obvious bluff card, obviously never folding underpairs'.

At the risk of sounding schizo (obv not the literal disease, the pop translation of what that word means) this voice chimes on and on and on and on, whispering and undermining and interrupting the actual poker narrative, the one present when I used to produce videos.

What changed in me was that I'd had enough of this voice ruining everything. I started to be totally uncompromising with it, with one side of my brain almost literally shouting FUCK, OFF! at it whenever it tried to chime in with anything. At the same time, I realised that unless I shone real light on everything it said and recognised the nonsense of each item, that I would never be 'free' of it.

So I dropped from 4 to 3 tables, and had as my 4th window a notepad file where I would quickly write any thought that popped into my head. In doing so, this stopped each thought taking root and having my body 'act out' from the thought, with the thought simply being noticed instead.

After a very short while, the thoughts stopped being problematic ones and were instead more geared towards strategy.

At this point I went on a 150k hand stretch at 100z and 200z winning $16k and winning at 8.8bb. Not only that but I felt completely in the zone at all times.

The reason I'm writing this is that I got out of the habit of writing down my thoughts after a while. This wasn't a problem for a few weeks, I guess the momentum of the sheer mindfulness that I'd practiced kept me going for a while, but after moving to Party things started to go downhill.

The games on Party seem so much softer than on Stars, but I've been completely losing my shirt on there. The voice has been back (and today was the first time on Party I truly recognised it for what it is). Not only has the voice returned, it has been constant, and of course the only way in which this matters is that I have been completely believing in what the voice has been saying.

'your style just doesn't work on this site'
'regs are so random, you can't hand read them'
'hmm maybe actually regs are just like reallly really good and they have poker solved and Dan you're the problem'
'whatever you do, you will lose'
'look you idiot you didn't raise a set and now he's made a flush and it's all cos you're an idiot you idiot'
'you don't watch enough videos, you're behind the curve, you idiot'
bluff fails 'you idiot you can NEVER bluff people on this site zomg you are so stupid'

etc etc et fucking cetra. As it's obvious to see, there's nothing in there pertaining to actual rational poker strategy, or pertaining to a hand in progress, and indeed every thought is destructive as hell to confidence. They're all black and white i nature, which is a good indicator of an 'ego' thought VS one that arises from awareness of what is currently going on.

They obviously produce emotions too, which in turn generate more such thoughts, which keeps the cycle going.

Essentially, I've been in one giant panic cycle spanning several weeks. How do you break the cycle? Answer: through awareness. Not some abstract concept of awareness, but literally writing down and noticing what the thoughts are saying and in doing so dis-identifying from them.

So the reason for this blog is that I have so many thoughts at the moment that I needed to put them all in one place. As I've been writing I've realised that of the two steps preceding my turnaround (getting insanely mad, and writing every thought down), it is the second that is probably going to have been the important one.

When the thoughts are 'useful', (say, a realisation that timing when bluffing rivers is important) then I think that writing them down gives us a chance to process them, so it's not only problematic thoughts that should be written.

So moral of the story: writing down thoughts whilst playing gives us a chance to dis-identify from them, breaks the panic cycle of tilt, and enhances awareness of THIS happening right this very moment, the hand we are currently playing, which gives us the opportunity to play the hand to our maximum potential.

The end, thanks for reading.

Aug. 13, 2017 | 9:08 p.m.


I'd file this under 'you're getting bluffed sometimes, but not often enough to be able to make the call'. The turn bet at this sizing is very thin too, you have to ask yourself what worse hands you expect to cc here?

Aug. 9, 2017 | 9:43 p.m.

Oh hey thanks for this, infrequent visitor to RIO these days. Googling EMDR now.

Interesting you stomach inflammation, because yeah the physical sensation of stomach contraction is both a symptom of any anxiety attack I may have and also enough to kick them off in a chicken and egg kinda way. Caffeine withdrawals were one such culprit for me.

No I haven't had a formal interest per se, just kinda pop psychology/ spirituality I guess.

Thanks for your response.

July 10, 2017 | 5:15 p.m.

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