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3 points

Comment | DasSmithStar commented on PLO25 Turn Spot

I guess it depends how often, if ever, you think he is x/calling 2P+ NFD on the flop?

May 27, 2020 | 9:23 p.m.

Comment | DasSmithStar commented on PLO25 Turn Spot

That makes sense, and ignore what I posted :).

From a range POV, I think we can put villain on a lot of naked nut flush draws (you block the 2nd nut and most players probably dont call pot with 3rd nut flush OOP) and hands like with JT that don't make a wrap (although you block the J so less likely). The flop hits his range more than yours so he should be c-betting there at a high freq, particularly if you have tagged him as aggressive. From this we can remove a lot of 2P+ that bet for protection as as well as strong combo draws that would also bet flop.

A range that includes JT and NFD has about 30% equity.

I would probably pot it as players at 25plo tend to be really sticky with NFD and you can extract maximum value, although making less like 3/4 is probably ok. If you then get jammed on its a snap fold.

If he calls pot and then checks back a non-spade rivers, it's a check back as I dont know what x/calls two pot sized bets that you beat and can get value from?

If he x/calls pot turn and then bets into you on non-spade rivers I probably sigh-call.

May 26, 2020 | 5:41 p.m.

Comment | DasSmithStar commented on PLO25 Turn Spot

Fair. Ignore post :)

May 26, 2020 | 5:06 p.m.

Comment | DasSmithStar commented on PLO25 Turn Spot

Why did you donk the flop? If he is agg then likely will c-bet this board as hits his range more than it hits yours. You then have the choice of either check/raising him or flatting.

You have blockers to the straight so more likely he does this with flush draws + combo draws. You also now have a OESD to the nuts if an A hits the river.

I'd probably check behind as would be pretty gross to get check/raised where you would probably need to call.

Then call any non-flush river.

May 26, 2020 | 1:54 p.m.

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