The sizing just changes the math, you need to call 62$ to win 152$, so you need to win about 36% of the time, which means he needs to be bluffing about the same % to make it a call because you don't beat any value hands in his range. In a 4bet pot it just seems unlikely he's bluffing enough OTR to make you call.
In the end you need to look at your own range too, you can't fold your entire range because then villain autoprofits with his bluffs, so basically on the river, with the line you took, if KQ is in the top 36% of your range you call it otherwise you fold (unless you have a read to deviate from GTO)
So basically if you want to find out what the GTO move is OTR just look at what your range looks like when you play like this and see where KQ is at in that range, from there you can see if you need to call the KQ.
(if anyone more familiar with GTO reads this feel free to correct me if this is wrong)
Feb. 23, 2017 | 7:12 p.m.
I think it's very hard to determine villain's value range here because of how weirdly the hand was played but I imagine the bottom of his value range is AQ here, along with that he def has some flushes and maybe straights (but really not that often if his range here is really as tight as 5% preflop)
Maybe some AA, KK that he randomly checks back on the turn, maybe some weirdly played two pair.
With this many value hands in his range that beat you, I don't think it's likely villain bluffs enough to balance that on this river so I feel like it's a fairly easy exploitative fold, especially since you have some flushes yourself and maybe some sets or straights to call. (something like 87s)
Feb. 22, 2017 | 2:26 p.m.
Don't mind how you played it at all, but when you say you hope he spazzes with his SC OTR really the only suited connector you beat is T9, 89 probably checks back and hopes to win w/ 2nd pair pretty much all other SCs have you beat: 7x has a straight, 65, 86, 45, 85 all have two pair.
That said I also think he keeps bluffing a lot of those combos OTT, along with all of his flushdraws, AA, KK def keep betting OTT so his range OTR is actually pretty weak.
Add to that that on the flush card he really doesn't bet any of his two pairs or sets or AQ to this size. (especially w/ the 4 straight on board too)
Also note, though, that it's pretty hard to find bluffs in villain's range here, he needs to be bluffing with a bunch of missed broadways like KJhh/AJhh and I'm not sure he has enough of those types of hands if he only 3bets 10% and on top of that folds 50% of that to your 4bet.
+ I think he's likely to check those hands back OTF rather than bet them when you check.
All in all this hand is just really confusing and I'm entirely unsure what the 'right' move is here, I think it counts for something that you check flop and under rep your hand which makes me like your river call more.
Feb. 22, 2017 | 2:45 a.m.
Bet sizing will just make him fold worse hands and call with hands that have you crushed.
There is way more 9x in opponents range than there are flush draws you get value from + with this sizing OTT he def folds hands like 44-77 OTT.
Feb. 22, 2017 | 2:10 a.m.
so from UTG, your 4bet range is AA, KK and a number of bluffs? Which means your 4bets UTG include way more combos of bluff hands
If you're betting the same amount of bluffs as you bet value hands I see no problem here?
Just because your value range is tight doesn't mean you automatically over bluff. Also if your opponent folds to 4-bets a lot then flat calling AK and instead bluff raising some worse hands becomes a better strategy.
I.e. if villain is folding dominated aces to your 4-bet a lot then flatting AK and keeping those dominated aces in villain's range is very high value
Feb. 5, 2017 | 3:56 p.m.
If the fish is calling any flushdraw he's likely calling any ace which means you're value owning yourself a lot of the time, absolutely hate it personally.
You fold out worse a lot of the time (any Jx, Tx) and you get smashed by his whole calling range except flushdraws and 9Tx if he even calls that ever.
Check turn or bet something around 1/3rd or 1/4th pot if villain is overcalling and won't bluff river that much (cause river would be a check always)
Also if you check turn and he doesn't bet you could go for thin value on offsuit low card rivers.
Feb. 5, 2017 | 3:37 p.m.
Tough to find bluffs really, unless you think he might do this with a hand like JJ or AJ, I think you're looking at a slowplayed set most of the time.
Looking at the pot odds you need about 33% to call, you have around 78% against JJ and AJ but against aces or a set you have 5%, against a made straight you're drawing dead.
He would have to be bluffing a tonne of random stuff to make this a call it seems. Assuming he never makes this move for value with worse hands like QQ or ATs which would of course influence your decision.
Personally I lay it down unless villain is REALLY spewy, the lack of flush draws also has a fairly big impact on this.
Feb. 5, 2017 | 3:31 p.m.
Don't see why you would play a weak ace OOP and bloat the pot vs villain w/ low fold to 3 bet.
I think you bet the nuts always in micro's regardless of range strength.
Also a lot of single pair hands will call the flop once and a lot of scary turns will make you lose value against those hands if you don't get it on the flop.
Feb. 4, 2017 | 4:56 p.m.
Fairly sure if he's holding a hand like 56 (open ender) hes not folding turn (so he can still bluff river w/ it), so really you're only aiming at hands like 53/54/32? hardly seems feasible villain is calling quite that wide in the SB pre.
Feb. 4, 2017 | 5:45 a.m.
The hand does matter because of the blockers you do/don't have in your hand, if you hold an ace your opponent is less likely to hold an ace so a portion of their calling range is blocked by the ace you're holding. (There are less combos of the good aces)
So basically A8s has the blocker but can make less nut hands than hands like A2-A5s if you DO get called by villain.
The lower suited aces have both the blockers and more nut combos postflop.
Feb. 4, 2017 | 5:38 a.m.
Can you elaborate on why you would include A8s in your 3-betting range?
Also on monotone boards I feel like if we check a lot we will have to fold a lot of hands with decent equity against flop bets from villain. (I.e. overcards w/o the spade)
Just because villain will likely play these boards more aggressive when checked to.
Feb. 4, 2017 | 5:37 a.m.
You should see it like this: The the reason you 3-bet polarized is only to strengthen your flatting range (you move some 3-bets to your calling range and move some folds to your 3-betting range)
If you don't need a stronger flatting range (because you don't have one, OR because your opponent will not exploit your unbalanced range) there is no reason to 3-bet bluffs and your more marginal linear hands become your 'bluffs' because you don't need them in your calling range.
The weaker hands I call are -EV vs strong players but are still decent vs players you know you can beat.
So in practice I have a way wider SB flatting range than I should have just because I play fishy games and I know I can realize my equity postflop well.
Hope this answers your question decently.
Feb. 4, 2017 | 5:30 a.m.
Probably a narrower since micro fish don't like folding hands to 3-bets and we will be out of position. Personally, I like to flat a bunch of the weaker suited hands in the range you just gave (JTs, J9s, KTs) if BB is a fish who will come along very wide, since these are hands that play well post and can make nut hands that will get you paid.
Also fish don't tend to punish you for playing weaker ranges or take advantage of their position as much.
I wouldn't do this in a reggy aggressive game though.
Feb. 3, 2017 | 10:48 p.m.
Don't think general population in micro's 3-bets BB enough to make QT even close to a call. Flop float is similarly def not +EV against unaggressive micro villains. Would like a check back on turn and instead bet some bluffs that can use the fold equity more (since there are a lot of good rivers to continue bluffing i.e. diamonds, most straighty low cards.)
EDIT: Also, villain's range OTT is basically check-give-ups and hands that have you crushed.
Feb. 3, 2017 | 10:19 p.m.
Unless you expect villain to go after the pot on flops like this I suggest just betting out, hands like pairs w/ single spades or pair hands like 6x/7x with no spade will likely call at least one bet OTF but a lot of turns will scare them (overcards, another spade)
On a side note, A8s is not a very optimal 3-bet bluff SB vs CO, he flat calls a lot of better aces, you can't draw to wheel etc.., also note that in spots where you (should) have no flatting range it's best to 3-bet linear (opposite of polarized) so A8s shouldn't be in your range in general and even if you're exploiting (i.e. if villain overfolds to 3-bets), hands like A2s-A5s are better candidates.
Feb. 3, 2017 | 10:08 p.m.
Offsuit is better as a 4-bet because they don't play as easily post flop. I don't mind the flop check against a passive opponent, would bet a little bigger on the river simply because it's unlikely villain checks AK twice and he can def show up with a lot of weaker aces since it checked down twice, you possibly even get a call from some stubborn JJ/QQ if you're up against a fish.