Preflop I could fold since I'm getting 3bet from UTG... The raise flop needs some balls but if you have a read on vilain. Don't know if at NL10 there is some bluffy line like this.
River I can't see what wee value... I don't believe that we could be paid by a J. There is AQ and KQ and... That's it! Check fold seems better to me
Sept. 1, 2020 | 7:41 a.m.
I would fold flop since HJ could call or raise behind. We only have backdoors. We won't be comfortable if we hit our Ace.
Turn I like the play. You have a read so let's go
River not sur of the jam. If vilain bluff a lot, it means he's overfolding. So when we get called turn, he's range is strong. We don't block any straight draw. It depends if your player pool can fold a Top pair, two pairs
Don't think they would fold sets here I mean QJ is only 16 combos
Aug. 15, 2020 | 10:41 a.m.
You have to be aware that rasing small Cbets is an exploit on its own.
That mean that the GTO play is to call or fold evry time we face a small bet? I should look how solvers play in that spot
That mean that vilain can overcall our raise flop et steal the pot turn and if so, we should 2 barrels more often...
Hello high variance play!
Aug. 13, 2020 | 5:02 p.m.
I play in .fr (same player pool) and I'm trying to add some raise to my flop strategy. And I agree with your statement: people under raise oop and theiy raise in value most of the time. So I started to cbet 1/3 100%. Easy strategy but you have to think about turn and river when you get called. Not the most difficult work but necessary. Also I started to raise flop from the BB but here's the trouble : usually, when a player bet 33%, he's a reg. And when I raise and get called, boy I don't know how to play turn. Oop it's awful. And it doesn't get better on the river. So I ended up burning chips because my good play flop was wasted by my turn and river play. I'm studying that spot because I feel there is a lot of EV to gain here
And don't forget the node lock assume that players will play the hand perfectly on later street. That's so wrong in reality so keep your mind open when thinking about what line should we take
Aug. 12, 2020 | 12:21 p.m.
Am I the only one who wouldn't cbet that board? I mean BB has a lot of pairs, GS and draws while we only have backdoors... We won't be able to bluff many turns, we can't really improve until the river and we don't block his callong range. I would delay cbet here
May 3, 2020 | 11:37 a.m.
Hi! Hope you're doing well
I'm trying to understand how EV works with a simple example: Bluffcatcher vs nuts/air
So the pot is 1, we bet 0.33 We have 50 value hands et 50 hands that we might wanna bluff.
Vilain will fold 20% of the time and call 80%. (No raise)
So we have
EV fold vilain = 100% * 20% * 1 = 0,20
EV losing call vilain = 50% * 80% * (1+0,33) = 0,532
EV winning call vilain = 50% * 80% * (-0,33) = -0,132
EV = 0,20 + 0,532 – 0,132 = 0,6
And what if we never bluff?
EV fold vilain = 50% * 20% * 1 = 0,10
EV losing call vilain = 50% * 80% * (1+0,33) = 0,532
EV total = 0,10 + 0,532 = 0,632
We'd better never bluff. That make sens since vilain defends more than the minimum defence frequency requires (75%). But he's defending a little more so I guess that the optimal strategy with that sizing would make us bluff a little bit..
That's why I think my Ev calculation (and thus my excel sheet) is wrong but I can't figure why...
What do you think about all this?
March 23, 2020 | 6:45 p.m.
Hi Peter Clarke
First, thanks and congrats for all your work it's amazing! Chapeau l'artiste
I have 3 questions about 3 spots you played:
At 39:40 you hold 99 on 74J8. Vilain X and so did you. But you said you could stab the pot with 33 or 55. And I don't understand why you guys play like that. When you start poker, the supreme rule is "bet for value if you have 50% equity". Here it's not value. It's not protection since the folding range of vilain have 15% max against us. Generally speaking when we are turn or river I've trouble with merged range. Why would we bet if not to get value or protection? (vs a range that have 20% agains us).Plus if you do you have to add some value hand to balance your betting range and that is something I'm not happy with because when I hold 77 or 44 I rather go big...
At 31, on 53AK you hold J7 and bet small to make vilain fold. You bet small because his range is inelastic. Ok but what if vilain was a reg? It seems pretty obvious here that you're not holding A5 or 33 since you'd rather go big...I feel like exploit vilain is only betting smalll when bluffing (or thin valuing) and betting large when max (with some bluff sometimes). And I can imagine that it's not obvious. Any reg could read your soul that way
Of course not since you're a winning poker player. I miss a piece of the puzzle here
March 21, 2020 | 12:54 a.m.
This is NL2. I'm not sure about the range of vilain Hawkswin choose here. Either vilain is a NL2 and he will 3bet AKo, QQ and A5s-A2s all the time. Also He'll call is broadway 100%. I agree with Phrikshin finally our rangehave nuts but a bunch of garbage too K5s, A8o... While vilain have a more compact range. Plus he can call 1 street with an underpair like 99-TT.
Either vilain is a super fish and we can bet 2 street and make him fold
Feb. 16, 2020 | 1:13 p.m.
What are vilain stats of agression factory and how many hands do you habe on him?
Preflop is ok
Flop chexking is good. Maybe if vilain is passive we could bet flr protection. His range is very wide = weak. He can't defend a lot here. Giving a free card to JT or K9 is a problem since vilain is IP and can bluff us or hit one of his cards
Turn the call seems good but in fact, every time I call that kind of spot I lose. When vilain goes all in, 95% of the time it's for value. Plus his PFR is not that high. In game I would call but I must learn that this line = value
Feb. 16, 2020 | 12:47 a.m.
You opened MP and yet CO calls... You must be careful here. BB's range is looser
Flop I wouldn't bet here. We're oop versus a strong range (CO). I don't expect a K to call and there is no worse A in CO's range. I would bet my best A (AK AQ AJ) and some draws like gutshot.
Turn we chop against every Ace. Not sure sf betting is the best option
River we're overplaying our hand. We should X here. I can't see the value
I suppose vilain in CO in a NL2 reg... If vilain is a calling station then it's a different story
Feb. 16, 2020 | 12:25 a.m.
I'm trying to think range instead of thinking with my hand. I'm on my way, slowly. But I'm stuck when it comes to choose a sizing
Sometimes I know that vilain's range is strong, so I won't bluff or rarely. And I go big. I choose some combo to stick to a value/bluff ratio that's correct.
When vilain's range is weaker, I'm lost. When he has a weak range, I'm thinking "go big his range hisso weak he'll fold a lot" but after "well his range won't call enough, better have a good risk reward" and my timebank is gone... My range is an important thing to have in mind when you choose a sizing. When my range is weak a bet bigger since vilain won't believe me and can call to see my hand (bluffcatch). I don't bet pot because my range can't support it. When my range is stronger a bet small since vilain doesn't have to call that often.
How do you deal with that question?
(I know we can overbet when vilain is capped. I'm talking about more standard spots here)
Good luck players!
Jan. 25, 2020 | 9:16 p.m.
Here the thing, We need to do this very well or we'll lose a lot of chips. The EV we gain by splitting our range will be crushed by the Ev we'll lose by betting the wrong hand with the wrong sizing. And I don't know where do I begin...
Oct. 13, 2019 | 9:22 p.m.
I have troubles with the concept of bet sizing.
Let's imagine we're playing a reg. If I bet 1/3 with hand like top pair weak kicker and pot with trip^s for example, I'm capping my range and vilain can exploit that. I mean betting small with my weaker value hand seems incredibly easy to counter for vilain. And balance my weaker value hand with some nuts would 1) leave my heavy value range weaker and 2) I don't have that many strong hand to compensate and I'll have to split my nuts. I think it's useless since my nuts will represent a very poor fraction of ma weaker value range (10% of nuts doesn't protect a range)
I fell like I'm missing something. Does anybody wants to share their opinion?
Oct. 7, 2019 | 2:16 a.m.
Well, vilains are calling station generally. They wouldn't fold an overpair. That said I think we have the odd because our hand is better sometimes and we have some outs so... I'd rather call but raise seems to be ok too
May 4, 2019 | 9:29 p.m.
Weird but well as played fold is the best option.
I would check back river since if vilain is bluffing he would fold and if he wasn't we're crushed. He can have TT or JJ but that's few hands et I would to bet smaller to value them
May 4, 2019 | 4:04 p.m.
The board is very wet and you have a nuts advantage here. Even 2 pairs would be a bluff catcher for vilain sometimes. I would bet larger (3/4 or pot). And I will bluff my backdoor flush like 98,87. Few bluff since I expect vilain to overcall here. No bluff at all ca be fine I think
May 4, 2019 | 10:34 a.m.
In general, It's difficult to bluff a FD that miss I think. And in NL10 vilain will rarely fold an overpair on that board. You can have T9 on 2 pairs but they won't fold so I won't bluff river. GU and next hand.
Raising flop is an idea but you have to pick your bluff since you won't have that much nuts here. I won't pick KTc because hitting a pair will often be good. I'd rather bluff some weak hand like GS (T9dd,JTdd; T9cc, JTcc) and some offsuit with 1 club (AcX, KcX)
May 3, 2019 | 8:39 p.m.
Vilain is tight. How far we can't tell but he is. It's NL5. How often do you see a vilain double barrel bluff in a 3bet pot? I'd rather over fold here et give up turn. I still can change my opinion on him later. The board is ultra dry, no draw and he 3bet early... I would fold here
May 3, 2019 | 5:08 p.m.
I try and to be honest it work. The thing is I can't keep doing it because I'm always thinking "What if I'm wrong? How can you say that you're right to fold here?" And I hate it when I fold and a friend tell me "You can't fold here you'll fold too much" and I don't know what to respond. I play with my feeling but I don't trust them I'd rather have theoritical tools
Sept. 24, 2018 | 7:29 p.m.
I'm working on my game and even if it doesn't payback, I'm trying to go higher. I'm a micro stake player and I try to undestand some theoric NLHE aspect. Here's one that I have trouble to get:
If vilain bet half pot, I need to win 25% of the time (That's easy). I need to defend 66%of my range. And that's where I'm lost. I'm a calling station, I know it. I try to fold more. But how? I can't say because I don't see the point of defending 66% if vilain bet only 15% of his range or if he bets 80% of his range but those 80% are nuts! I'm calling to defend enough but it's ev- since some vilain bluff less than I thought. I know that's numbers and I need to focus on spots but I need hints to starts to work on those spots. Also, to denfend enough, I started to check some value hand to protect my checking range and I had to stop when my cbet frequency dropped to 43%... I think I'm close to undeerstand those numbers are related but I miss something
Sept. 24, 2018 | 2:11 p.m.
First, congrats for the initiative, you've got the spirit ;)
I think you don't need GTO+ yet. It's a wonderful tool but at the beggining we need to understand basic theory and learn to play a solid poker. GTO+ will come after
Here you decide to 3bet AQs vs MP and I would recommend you to just call unless you have some read on vilain.
Why do you 3bet here? Bluff? I don't see many hand that vilain would fold in his open raise range. And we know you can't 3bet for value because once he call we just have 50% in an optimistic scenario. I think call here is more profitable than 3bet. And when he 4bet we,re behind. At this stake, there's few 4 bluff Oop and his value range crushes our range. You have to fold here and it's horrible to fold AQs you're waisting a lot of equity
Flop I wonder if vilain would bet AK after you called his 4 bet... And the worst part it's if he does we're still behind! It's an absolut fold flop.