Eurocrat

I think this is an easy fold OTR.

When you call the x/r OTT, you do so in the hopes of being able to checkback a river because most of the time you're going to be reduced to 2 outs. What worse hands would he play this line with for value? Even if that were true, you'd be calling a 200% potsize bet in hopes of splitting the pot. I have seen fish x/r the turn with something like AT here, but expecting them to jam the river with that seems a bit far-fetched to me.

Not sure what to think of PF tbh. When villain raises, I dont think he is completely capped. He can have 77 and 65s for sure and dependent on player type some 33 and 44. That being said, he does raise here pretty mergy and I would expect A7s, 88-TT, maybe 87s and 76s as well. Surely you will find some additional bluffs combos, like 98 with a BDFD etc.

3betting flop seemed to me at first glance as quite absurd because I like to avoid having a 3bet range OTF most of the time, but depending on what you expect them to do with A7s and 88-TT, this might be a nice exploit. What would they do with these combos in your opinion?

OTR, I find it hard to come up with combos that villain would fold here against your bet and that you dont beat. I would expect the turn checkback to be strongly inclined towards SDV, so I have a preference for x/f.

I like the raise here exploitatively, although HawksWin is making a good point on the K out not being very clean.

Agreed also on rather checking back on the turn after they call and you pick up the FD.

My first reaction is that I would probably call here and then curse at the other player for being a damn nit that doesnt bluff.

I dont mind your line here, although it feels kind of awkward. I guess you can consider checking the turn, but that mostly doesnt liberate you from a tough decision on the river and gives a lot of free EV.

I do agree that you combo of QQ is fairly good because it unblocks missed FDs and blocks any QJ. But how many combos would that be? some Axcc, KQcc, maybe KTcc, QTcc, T9cc, some 98cc-54cc. Guess you could also add some more OESDs and random sort that they can bluff. But will they bluff at 100%? On the other hand, they have 3 combos each of 77, 99, maybe 55; you have 2 AJs, 2 KJs, 2 JTs. Maybe T8s?

I havent plugged this in any software, but it seems counterintuitive that we have a range advantage on this board.

I'm not a super huge fan of the line as well, although I presume it can be done at a lower frequency. One of the questions is whether you epect villain to fold AJ, KJ here? And on the other hand, what combos do you play for value with this line?

I dont think this post is really about any strategical advise and more about showing how poor you run, and I think you're well aware of that. That is okay, we've all been there. But intidcates that there is a mental game problem.

A somebody suggested, you could either avoid playing deepstacked if you dont feel comfortable. That would be a short term solution. In the longterm, you'll have to put some studying focus into this.

I dont have much experience in NL5z, but that seems like a fine call, though certainly with a sigh. I would value more the fact that he might be overplaying 2P or a set rather than bluffs.

Jamming OTT is probably not GTO but I could see it have some advantages, as any h, any T, any 8, any K either kills your hand strenght or the amount of value you can extract from villain. I doubt that they would fold much of their 2P.

I think the preflop call is fine. When they offer you pot odds that good in position, you need to take them.

I have a preference to folding on the turn. Villain is more directed towards medium-strong showdown value and the better draws. My problem here is that the only really good card for us where we can expect to have a payday is another 8. If you get a straight or a 2p its hard to extract value even against a weaker opponent.

I really enjoy this play, especially against a pool that likes to overstab. Do you think villain would fold a NFD here?

I cant say anything about your player read, but I agree with what has been said before that on a dry runout, I would probably prefer to give up most of the time.

I would expect the river shove to be pretty nutted, so the fold here seems fine to me.

Indeed, I think if you decide to bet on the turn you can start polarizing more, ie use a larger bet sizing. But note that, in my opinion, both on the flop and on the turn a checkback is a good option some of the time (and dependant on villains play style).

Depends a bit on what you expect BB to do and on how you think his range looks like. Is he going to coldcall a hand like 99, TT and then fold against your 4bet? Is he going to continue and overfold PF?

I think this can be a good play but you will neeed a battle plan ready on how to deal with it postflop.

Against BU, obviously you can expand your 4betting range. When he jams, its an easy fold.

I'm not convinced 4bet jamming here is right with UTG still in the game. I do think it makes sense to go smaller than normal, although I would still like to 4bet a bit bigger, like 18bb.

Villain has a stack of 50bb on the flop, right? I agree that I wouldnt mind cbet/calling here. Usually you'll have 6 live outs vs smaller pocket pairs, and you can actually expect to be ahead every once in a while vs something like AJ. If you get called, I would probably jam on any h, A, K, Q, J.

As played, I think the fold on the turn is fine. Not unlikely that villain has zero bluffs here.

I'm actually wondering if jamming PF could be an option - you do have some nice blockers and KQo isn't really that great to call with. But could be completely off on this one.

I can get behind the flop checkback. I have the impression that when regs check flops that they cbet at a high frequency, they are probably overprotected due to a high number of deceptively played hands. With the Qs there aren't many runouts that are terrible for you.

On the river, you block quite some value, so if you wanna call down here at all I feel that this combo is a good choice. He can have AJ and probably some busted heart FDs.

I think I would call and hate myself after because villains are nits and dont bluff, like, ever.

What info do you have on villain? I think you could consider 3betting PF here.

As played, turn seems like a disciplined fold to me.

I dont know the player, but from the stats you give I would expect 99 to be in his range at least some of the time, although I would expect him to bet that frequently on the flop. But the same could be said for KJ.

I dont think there is a case for 3betting the turn at all, would seem like a value-own to me. I've seen this line been used as bluffs before. It looks to me that the pool starts considering that these floatbets as increasingly weak, altough that might be a wrong impression. But so, I would not be surprised to see him with rather weird hands like JT, QJ. I guess the calldown is fine although its thin.

A lot of people gave some good advice and analysed this spot pretty clear. My initital thought was to just call flop with such a strong draw, but if you want to x/r (which is fine) indeed you should go bigger.

The river shove is fine IMO because NL5 pool stacks off here fairly inelastic I imagine.

I can see where you're coming from. What you describe about how you can see something off the table but not on the table made me think of system 1/system 2 described by Daniel Kahnemann. I don't think trying to get rid of your emotional attachements is the way forward to go, although trying to get rid of emotions is a common theme among poker players. But I think your emotions are here to stay and that's fine.

From my point of view, it's a question of habits, and it helped me to understand a bit better how our minds work. My advice for you is to read "Thinking, fast and slow" by Kahnemann. That might be a bit unorthodox as the book is not about poker at all, but it is a really good one in general and taught me a lot about different aspects of poker. And then ultimately, its a question of repition and habit-forming, so you'll need to drill off the table.

Agree on what others said. I think the As is a reason to just call because there arent that many bad rivers. I would consider jamming the turn if I wouldn't hold the As, although that might be quite thin.

I do think villain will have a decent bluffing frequency. Alas, I would definitely considering betting my whole range, although villains sizing is quite big for that purpose. But in villains shoe, I would suspect the fish to have plenty of weak overcards that he will drop easily and as you can see, 99 is relatively high up your range and you're unsure what to do.

So I would continue. If the recreational player goes along, I would think that gives you a good opportunity to shove - that would likely make villain to fold out his overcard combos (which have a decent amount of equity) but at the same time allow the recreational to pay you off with something like A7. In case the recreational player folds, I would just call and call villain shoves on rather safe runouts (like, with a A or a K, I would probably find the fold).

We all ran below EV at one point. Obsessing about it is a mental game leak.

I think simply committing to just studying more won't do the trick. There is a difference between knowing something and implementing something. I had the same with not being aggresive enough with some bluffs, I kept on studying how to bluff but it took me months to realize that I simply need to "pull the trigger". Like, also the theoretical knowledge wasn't enough to really do it.

Have a look at purposeful practice approaches. There is a good poker book on that, but I'm sure there is also plenty free stuff of a more general nature.

Obviously stack sizes, bet sizes, and stakes matter quite a lot.

Assuming its 100BB effective stack and somewhat standard PF sizes, this should be a board that favours SB's 3betting range and a range bet strategy should be effective. If you want to be more sophisticated, AQo and AKdd make a fine check here, whereas A5s is a good candidate for my bluffing range.

I agree with the overbet suggestion as a good exploit. I think NL25 regs find a number of folds here.

I think the preflop call is a bit marginal, but probably good on NL10 and considering that the blinds seem like weaker players. EDIT: Sorry, just realized I misread preflop, nevermind that comment.

I dont mind flop and turn. On river, can you provide some clarification: I dont think the effective bet is 7,94 because villains stack size is already smaller than that, correct? Its more like ~6$ if I oversee it correctly? In that case I think its fine and indeed there is value to be gained from AK, KQ, AA. I dont have much experience anymore on NL10, but I would think that even at those stakes, people start folding weaker TP combos against a pot size bet, no? So the close the bet size is to the pot, the thinner it gets in my opinion - because villain can also very easily have K7, K8, 77, 88, 44 in their range.

I think the check on flop is solid and given villains bet size, I prefer calling over raising here. On the turn, I think we do have a nice spot to check-shove after the weird, mergy sizing (maybe I just dont understand the approach, but why would you polarize on flop and then merge on turn?).

I would consider going bigger preflop. Vs the 2bb open I would do 9bb and probably add 0,5bb for the slightly bigger than usual effective stacks.

I agree that we can give villain quite a bit of credit after cbetting into 3 players, so I dont mind playing somewhat passively here. On the turn, what makes it a fine fold here to me is the fact that the board is pretty wet and the only river cards where you can expect a good payout at some frequency are Ac and Ah (maybe 9c and 9h in those cases where villain has a Q). With people not valuebetting the river enough here, you would see a lot of check-throughs on the river even if you hit. So implied potodds are not so enticing for me.

I would probably continue here if the turn would be, say, the 2c.

Preflop though I think I have a preference for squeezing with KQo, its just not that profitable MW in my opinion.

Something about the positions in your hand history is a bit confusing - but I take it its a HU spot? I'm not an expert at all but realize that HU the ranges are much wider than, lets say, CO vs BB.

I think this is a fine spot to raise at least some of the time. You can have 33, 44 (I guess HU you would raise 99 here PF, but in a case like BB vs CO, it would be in your range), you can have 43s and indeed hands like A9o that would probably like to raise here for protection. There are few good draws out there that you would like to raise here with the exception of 65s.

I would raise here and continue on most K, Q, J, T and diamond turns.

Out of curiosity, what makes you think villain is recreational if you dont have history with them?

I guess in theory you should call down here and I share Jbarez remarks on the turn card. Villain can have flush draws or JT. What is your best estimate after having tagged him as rec: Could they overvalue weaker Ax here? Do they bluff often enough?

The turn bet is essentially an all-in, but I would just call here. I dont see much value in shoving.

Obviously depends on the population and stake, but I would be surprised to see 6x here as a value bet. I agree though that it is not impossible for villain to bluff here with the combos that IIICitanul mentions, so I think its running close. If I think I am close to strategically indifferent, I like to choose the action that I can handle better emotionally (e.g, if it gives you peace of mind to know what he had, call him down), dont know if that is good advice.

Not sure what you mean by a raise/fold line - OTR? Dont think you could do that with the chips that you still have behind.