Think I'm shoving this pf. Villain isn't utg but utg+1. We have 19bb and a very good hand. It's fine if villain folds and we have good equity when called. The shoving stacks behind make me like shoving even better. If we flat, one of the shorties shoves and the original raiser calls, we're in an awkward spot.
I like the way you played flop and turn.
I think I agree with folding against an unknown on this river as well. I would call if I know villain is playing wide ranges. I'd probably call on a blank river as well.
Aug. 11, 2017 | 10:55 p.m.
That's a tough one. I agree that calling isn't a good option. I am not sure we are actually committed on the turn, but it will be a very nasty spot. I feel like when players in these games go for the huge flop bet they usually follow it up with a shove or another huge bet on the turn.
Then on to the hand as played. I wouldn't really worry about folding too much, in the sense that it might be exploitable. This is a very specific spot and it's unlikely you'll encounter it again against this opponent, so he won't really be able to exploit you.
I played around with some ranges and I do think you need a reasonable amount of fold equity to make this work and I agree with you that I don't think you have a ton of fold equity when he bets this big. Villain isn't worried about the bubble either, because he has such a large stack.
In the end I think folding isn't unreasonable here. I'd be inclined to shove if villain has been betting this big a lot and if I've seen him get it in with pretty bad hands. If not, I'd probably fold.
I'd like shoving a lot better if we were in the money.
July 31, 2017 | 5:25 p.m.
Any information about your opponent?
Preflop: I think flatting is totally reasonable against certain opponents. I think that for me it kinda depends on how happy I am getting it in preflop, as I am not happy about 3b/folding AQ with 35 bb.
Flop: I am not sure either. This flop doesn't really hit you range or villain's range. When you cbet here you basically rep overpairs. That said, villain only has a made hand when he has an overpair as well. What kind of range did you give villain for calling preflop?
I think I might cbet when I have a heart and give up when I don't. Having a heart gives us more barreling opportunities on the turn. I also think villain is more likely to continue with AQ type hands when he has a heart, so when we have a heart we have a blocker for that.
July 31, 2017 | 4:11 p.m.
ZlotZ, I definitely didn't mean I'm not raising donkbets ever. I agree that they generally aren't strong. I just don't really like it on this board.
Regarding balance, I think it's good to be aware of whether or not your ranges are balanced in certain spots but at these stakes we want to make sure we exploit weak opponents. When we do that, our ranges will often be unbalanced, but these weak opponents will never exploit that.
Also, I think calling with pretty much every hand you want to continue with on this board is a lot more balanced, IMO.
July 31, 2017 | 4:02 p.m.
What was your reason for raising on the flop? I assume it is for value, so you would be assuming that villain calls with worse hands. If so, I don't really understand why you would want to turn your hand into a bluff on the turn.
I guess this runout is good to try to get villain off 9x, but I think you're right that villain could donk/call Ax on the flop as well and I don't think he's folding Ax.
All in all, I'm not a big fan of your line. I think your getting a bit too fancy here. I'd probably just call his donkbet on the flop. When players in these tournaments mindonk the flop they are often betting small on the turn and river as well. Especially given your note about him donking marginal hands, I'd be comfortable calling small bets on a lot of turns and rivers.
July 31, 2017 | 3:57 p.m.
I think you should be betting the flop. Like you say, you want to get value from pocket pairs and not let hands like Kx and Ax realise equity.
I don't care too much about balance in low stakes MTTs, but I think checking a hand this strong isn't great for balance either. You're only betting very strong Qx, sets and overpairs for value, while you're probably betting all your air on this flop.
I agree with your analysis on the turn.
I agree with your river analysis as well and think a fold is best. I think I talk myself into a call too much in spots like this as well.
July 30, 2017 | 8:13 p.m.
Thanks for the response Zlotz. I don't agree with everything you say, though.
I agree that you can get some value from Tx by raising on the flop. I think we can get value from those hands by calling as well, though. You also say we can get villain to valuebet worse hands on the river after we check the turn. I doubt that. I think our range for raising the flop is very strong hands and bluffs. When we check the turn it looks like we were bluffing and gave up on the turn. If that's the case, it doesn't make a lot of sense for villain to bet hands like Tx for value on the river.
I don't really like raising the flop for balance either, because I doubt your range for raising will be balanced. When you're raising this flop you probably have overpairs, sets, maybe AT and bluffs in your range. Given that you don't have overpairs and sets that often, you'll probably be bluffing too much. I also think there's no reason to raise with hands as strong as AK and AQ. I think you'll be bluffing with the best hand a lot.
Raising with sets, overpairs and AT on this flop also means your range for flatting is capped.
From a balance perspective, I think it's better to flat his donkbet with all hands I'm continuing with.
I do agree with your comments on how I played turn and river. I made a mistake on the river and called. Villain had 33.
July 30, 2017 | 8:06 p.m.
You say you bet the river because you have more 9x hands in your range, so you're turning your hand into a bluff. I don't think I like that. I am not sure if villain is folding many better hands. Villain would probably bet Kx on the flop, so that is unlikely. You beat all Tx. I also think a flush is a reasonable part of villain's range when he checks flop and bets this turn and that obviously isn't folding.
I am probably check/folding this river.
July 30, 2017 | 7:54 p.m.
Yes, and I'd feel pretty good about it.
You say you villains will call you lighter, which is probably correct. Does that worry you or does that make you more inclined to shove? I don't think it really matters as it's hard to come up with a range AK doesn't do well against.
July 29, 2017 | 12:32 p.m.
Yes, they are Nash ranges.
You are right that they are just a starting point and that you should adjust based on player tendencies. In general, I think you're right that you can shove lighter if people are folding a lot. With just 7bb in a hyper-turbo just picking up the blinds and antes will be a pretty good result.
July 28, 2017 | 11:33 a.m.
UTG+1: 11,530 (Hero)
July 27, 2017 | 9:47 p.m.
UTG+1: 2,992 (Hero)
July 27, 2017 | 9:43 p.m.
CO: 5,865 (Hero)
July 27, 2017 | 9:11 p.m.
Thanks for your response.
How does check/calling the turn protect our hand?
Also, if you think c/f is the best play on the river, don't you think it's better to check the flop and bet turn and river? If we can bet two streets for value, I think he might be more inclined to call turn and river than flop and turn.
July 27, 2017 | 4:27 p.m.
BB: 194,541 (Hero)
July 26, 2017 | 11:03 p.m.
In the AT hand in the beginning of the video, you're talking about villain having a high cbet percentage. Why is that relevant in this case? Villain isn't the preflop raiser, so he can't cbet in this spot.
July 25, 2017 | 11:17 p.m.
Your calculations don't take into account that the BB will wake up with a good hand and call come percentage of the time. Your EV will go down as a result of that.
If you were in the BB, your calculations would be more or less correct. However I think your calling range for villain is a bit too tight. If he is opening this wide and calling a shove this tight, shoving is going to be a profitable move quite often, as that would be very exploitable.
July 19, 2017 | 11:32 p.m.
There's two video series on this website where a pro reviews the play of member Lankyross in a small stakes MTT. One by Owen Shiels and one by Jeremy Menard. Both go into picking spots deeper in MTTs where you can build your stack and actually put yourself in a position where you can win or make a really deep run.
July 19, 2017 | 10:30 p.m.
I don't like folding. It's an ok spot for the SB to reshove, so we're doing well against his range. Putting UTG on just JJ-AA makes no sense, imo. Even the tightest players are opening AK and probably AQ UTG.
If we don't fold, we have to decide between flatting or shoving. The problem with flatting is that we can't fold if any of the other players shove. If we call and utg shoves we have to call 41,487 to win 143,128. This means we need about 22% equity. Even if he only shoves QQ+ and AKs we have 25%, so I don't think we could fold.
The bounty makes calling a shove a bit better.
That said, I think I prefer shoving ourselves.
July 19, 2017 | 10:25 p.m.
I agree that it's a tough spot on the river. Not really sure what he does this for value with that we beat. You would have to hope for 88-99, but i'm not sure how likely that is. I think the c/c flop, c/c turn, donk river line is usually pretty strong. Especially in a multiway pot.
I don't think having the T of clubs changes much. The flush draw should be a pretty small part of his range. He probably only calls that flop with clubs if they connect with the board somehow. I can't think of many hands except for A5 and 56 of clubs.
I'm not sure what he can bluff with either. 56 got there and A4 and 45 have some showdown value, so he's probably checking those most of the time.
All in all, I would expect to see 22, 77, 33, 44 and maybe 56 quite often. I think folding is reasonable but when I'm in this spot I might tell myself I only need to be right 25% of the time and call.