Nick West

I guess it really depends on what your opponent or opponents are showing.  If it's heads up I try and see how many live pairs there could possibly be and then decide on whether or not I want to give myself "more outs" with a King or try and draw a pair.  I think the odds for drawing a random pair on last pull is a little less than 10%.  As far as % of drawing a T or 9 would depend on how many we thought were live.

Looking forward to coming by this year!  I'm gald you guys are putting it on again.

If we just call here what is our plan for the river? Assuming villian is going to be potting the river with the majority of his range.. is our hand more of a bluff catcher?  Are we calling if a club hits? Only calling if we fill up or hit a straight w/o a club?

I think it's likely that IP will bet a lot of turns with his AJ KJ hands, so assuming that the turn will check through is kind of a bold assumption.

I think C betting and check calling flop are both good options although I lean more towards C betting given your HJ opening range.  After being c/r'd, I would definitely call as villain's range is weighted towards tons of flush draws and gut shots. 

Jennifer, in the
last example on your video, the pineapple hand w/ quads.

Assuming it's just a
Heads up hand I believe the flush, flush is the way to go. Here is why I think
that.

With quads in the
back, two pair in the middle and 7s up top. I calculate the equity to be. Just
making assumptions on % of winning/losing those are definitely up for discussion.

Royalty points = 12

Chance of being
Scoped 0-1% -6(.01)=-.06

Chance of Scooping
10% 6(.10)= .6

Chance of winning 1
50% 1(.5)= .5

Chance of losing 1
50% -1(.5)= -.5

Equity of additional
FL hand ~7-9 points? I believe that the estimate equity of a regular fantasy
land hand is somewhere between 10-12 points but with pineapple I believe that
drops because of your opponents ability to make better hands in pineapple vs
regular open face. Opponent gets to see 17 cards in pineapple where in regular
OFC they only see 13. There is something
to be said for taking into account the slight chance that we could possibly
stay in fantasy land again in our second hand.

So with Quads in the
back I estimate the equity to be somewhere around 19.54-21.54 points.

With our flush,
flush, aces set our equity is quite strong.

Royalty points = 21

Chances of Scooping
80% 6(.8)= 4.8

Chances of being
scooped 5% -6(.05)= -.30

Chances of winning 1
90% 1(.9)= .9

Chances of losing
1   10% -1(.1)=-.1

Estimated equity
totaling 26.3

It is difficult to determine unless you know the person IRL, from my experiences, especially when playing over the app. Most of the times it's friends of a friend.. or at least someone you see on a somewhat rotiune basis in touranments/at casinos and what not.

In the first hand, I disagree with playing the Qc up top.  I understand that you're trying to go to FL but being 4 flush gives you way more playability and you're only one club away from flush and all of the Kings and Aces were live for FL chances.

In the scecond hand, why not put the 9 as the Kicker and the 4 in the middle?  The 4 plays much better with the ace, keeping the possibility of a straight intact where a 9 does not.  Plus, if you draw a 9, pairing it in the middle makes your Ace almost useless because you'd be backwards for trying to make two pair, if the 4 is in the middle and you pair you could still pair a card smaller than Jacks in order to keep your top playable.

At the ~16 minute mark, I think placing the 9 at the top is absolutely the best play. Looking at the villain’s board the only cards that could help us win the top are a K, A, 6, Q. All of the Kings are dead, there are only 2 aces left which if we did pull one we are at risk of fouling bc AQ > AT in the middle, and a 6 and Q force us to  pair our middle, an Ace which would force and improvement on the bottom or a T, which there is only 1 left in the deck. Forfeiting the top and trying to improve our bottom is def the way to go here.

 

Hey Mike, sorry for the delay in getting back with you.  The club that spreads it here in indy takes $10 every half hour if it's 2-3 handed and $15 every half hour if 4 handed, we play $5 a point.  I've heard many different rake structurs for the casinos in Vegas and LA.  Supposably, Orleans (Vegas) has the best rake structure but poor "new player" pools given it's location off the strip.

At 33:10. I think playing the Th in the middle is incorrect. While your point about having flexibility is valid, it's negated by the fact that you have the top spot open still for flexibility and if you happen to draw another T the chances of you missetting go up even more because of the fact that you'll have to make two pair in the middle, somehow is a better two pair on the bottom or trip 5s. Adding the T to the bottom gives you another 2 outs to improving so that all you need is a King. The chances of you making two pair in the middle w 6 pulls left is relatively low, plus you have the flexibility of utilizing your top to help from fouling in the case you draw a king and are qualified.

 

Adrian,

I'm extremely sad that your content will no longer be on this site.   I really enjoyed your style, videos, thought processes and play.  I wish you the best and hope that your next endeavors are super successful.

-the guy who introduce himself to you at The Bellagio during the World Series this year while you were waiting to play 10/20.

Great video Michael!  I really enjoy the way you approach your videos even though some times you seem to have trouble articulating your thoughts, I thought you did a great job with this video and touching on ranges.  I think it is really important that you stressed the fact that poker isn't a game "inside a box" as you said.  Trying to mimic someone's play without understanding the situation can be a disaster. 

I stayed at the Aria for 2 weeks over the 4th of July/World Series time frame and saw Brandon and Gus play for at least 3-4 days 14+ hours each day.  I had no clue how to play then but think that I could easily hang with them now only if my bankrolll could support $500 a point.

What limits are they spreading at the Bike Zach?

Me and some friends have been playing it in some live games around town... finally got one of the clubs to spread it for $5 a point.  Would love to talk strategy with someone about the game.  It's the worse addiction ever.