thanks for the video!
Some notes about your intro. Doubling up in the first hand of a 100$ MTT is worth around 90$-75$, rather than 10$. And yes, decisions at FTs are worth a lot more money obv, but they also come up far less often than spots in the beginning of MTTs. So while a typical error in the beginning of a 100$ MTT might cost you 5$ (just shooting random number here) and an error of the same magnitude at an FT will cost you 500$, the error in the beginning will be happening so much more often, that the EV loss might actually be much closer to the FT spot than one might think.
Aug. 11, 2020 | 2:37 p.m.
Thank you for the always insightful vids and funky lines Ben!
32.40 You keep talking about OOP using an overbet, while it actually is a PS bet. Pretty interesting that IP overfolds by quite a bit vs it (61% folds vs what "should be" ~50%) and is also folding some really strong hands i.e 2pairs. I do get the folds from Q7 and T7, as OOP is predominantly using 7x to bluff here, however I do not understand why Q8 is being folded at a frequency, not blocking bluffs really? If this hand is a 0EV calls shouldn't we be looking to call it at a 100% frequency in order to reach MDF?
Aug. 9, 2020 | 12:29 p.m.
thanks for the great video as usual :)
16.30 Do you even float unpaired hands OTF here, like AJdd? If not, I guess you have to turn 6x into a bluff and thus the only sizing here for you should be 2x pot jam? Meaning for value you only get to use FHs and maybe KQ?
Aug. 8, 2020 | 3:15 p.m.
Also here is BB strat vs open, I only allowed for call or jam. As one can see, BB is overfolding vs cEV (continuing ~52% vs what should be ~66%), but not as much as one could expect.
Vs jam BB is calling 66+,A7s+,KTs,ATo+, mixing KQo which is a 0EV call. Vs an ATC jam BB was calling 66+ A9s+ AJo+ KQs.
Aug. 7, 2020 | 6:42 p.m.
I have realized some time after, that I had ignored the possibility to run this spot with PIO ICM and have done so now. The result is interesting and proves me wrong in my assumption, that we would not be allowed to play ATC if we did not jam. PIO still opens 100%. There are some caveats to the sim: a) maybe I should have chosen a different RFI size and a different iso vs limp size (I went with 3,3x and 3,5x), b) I used a small flop subset (19 flops) so the EVs and also the exact combos in the "lower parts" of the range are probably off. Still, the general point that we want to play a mixed strategy between open raising and shoving holds true.
Aug. 7, 2020 | 6:30 p.m.
Alex I am also interested in your approach to these spots. There was a lengthy discussion on this topic in one of Luc Greenwood's videos (https://www.runitonce.com/poker-training/videos/lucas-greenwood-pro-poker-nlhe/) with the result being everyone going home with their opinion...
The spot in the video could have easily been solved with a PIO sim, but for spots outside of BvB what is your take on jamming ATC where we are allowed to, vs splitting our range. Once we split, we are usually not able to open range anymore, so do you think the EV we gain from not getting in a lot of chips with crap by implementing RFI strategies overcompensates for us having to fold some %% of our range vs just jamming ATC?
Aug. 7, 2020 | 9:37 a.m.
With 20BB from these positions I would not have a non-AI 3betting range. The range we play is so narrow and amount of hands that profit from non-AI 3betting vs the other 2 options so small (KK+ namely), that splitting our range her like this does not make much sense. Calling and jamming are both fine, depends mainly on your opponents opening stats and also a bit on the stacks and players behind.
When you think that the other players (esp the opener) are better than you, that would also sway me towards jamming.
Aug. 4, 2020 | 2:25 p.m.
Hi Sam, thanks for the vid. Liked your joke about the names in the beginning a lot :)
Our turn strat will be quite polar and we will split our FDs (although I guess the concern of being x/shoved on is not that big, given the ICM pressure on him). So I suppose we want to b/c our best FDs (Ahi, Brodway one with GS+), x/back the middling portion and stuff like 56dd and then bet again with the worst ones. Still, vs a human opponent, calling off with KJdd or A7dd feels pretty ugly when he check shoves, as we block quite a big portion of his draws and he probably will have a bit more value than he should. So what is your take on that, do you still use this strat and sigh call?
Aug. 1, 2020 | 3:06 p.m.
Seems like a trivial gii, the question is whether to do it now or OTT, but considering how drawy the board is and you not having a club, I guess I would 3b/jam right now.
As for villain, it is pretty tough to range him, for value he can have all the 2pairs (only one combo of A9s&A8s each though) and 88-99. He could also go with AQ. As for bluffs/draws, there is a ton really.
July 28, 2020 | 11:47 p.m.
I have run the sim twice now, yours is definitely way off. I seem to have made a mistake in my first one as well, as I have Ben jamming 24% in the one I just ran, which makes KJs a marginal call by BB. If he is jamming slightly wider now and/or limping his premiums, the call becomes borderline or even slightly winning.
As you have said yourself, future game aspects should not sway apestyles into calling lighter than what the model suggests.
The range you posted as his jamming range looks like the jamming range I have for EEE, I think this is your mistake... :)
July 21, 2020 | 5:48 p.m.
You have made a mistake in your sim, I have him jamming 20%. Maybe he jams a tad wider and/or has a limping range, which would mean his premiums are removed from the jamming range. Still the call is loosing unless he is jamming way too wide AND limping his premiums.
Even the top pros make mistakes in rather simple spots sometimes...
July 10, 2020 | 8:04 p.m.
Ryan Henry He has written that OR is OTB, but I agree, posting hands like that is pretty annoying to read and you should either use the output from a tracking program or if you so not have that and/or neither the HH use a hand converter where you can also rebuild a hand you have played.
I would jam TT here always unless you have some very specific reads on BU (e.g he 4b/jams all PPs vs 3b in this spot) that are close to impossible to have IRL.
July 7, 2020 | 4:58 p.m.
As I have shown in another topic for a very similiar spot, PIO prefers to mostly x/r and x/c combos of this caliber. But betting cannot be bad either, that combo just has so much EQ that you cannot make a mistake by going either way.
J is bad for your range and you should definitely play a polar turn betting range.
July 7, 2020 | 4:53 p.m.
In the particular spot you described 3betting and folding are both fine I think. I have two different sets of preflop charts, in one it is almost always folding, in the other almost always 3betting.
The easiest way for your general approach would be to buy some ranges from rengeconverter, a training course or smth like that. That stuff is pretty expensive though and it is also not necessary to have the ranges down perfectly to be a winning player. Just take a peak at the vids ginzaboom has mentioned and then you should get a feeling of what to play in which way for a certain spot. Then you can either design your own ranges and stick to them or just try to ballpark it ingame.
July 4, 2020 | 4:47 p.m.
The opening range seems absurdly tight, even considerin the big OR-size and the calling range is waaaay too tight. If he opens a somewhat normal CO range here, you can jam any PP profitably and even some weakish offsuit Ax. Even vs the tightest of CO ranges 88 is an easy jam and by making his raise so big, the jam gets even better. You would have to have sick reads, like him only using that size w premiums in order to warrant a flat.
July 4, 2020 | 4:40 p.m.
Pretty tough to answer without the payout structure and any reads on villain. Just plug it into ICMizer/HRC with the payouts, give him only AK and then go from there.
July 4, 2020 | 4:37 p.m.
Your ITM percentage is very high. Do you play a lot of satellites or does it include SnGs? Your average ITM %% should be between 15%-20%.
ROIs differ vastly depending on stakes, but anything higher than 20% is already good. Also I would not exclude big binks, as that is what is part of ur ROIs in MTTs - running like crap for a long period of time and then binking one off...
700 MTTs is nothing, so your number do not have to say much (about ROI, ITM % is definitely already a significant enough sample). You can experiment with the calculator from pokerdope to see, which samples you need depending on you avg fieldsize and payount structure (also remember that variance is much bigger if you have an avg fieldsize of 500 that came about by playing 5 MTTs with 50 entrants and 5 MTTs with 5000 entrants as opposed to 10 MTTs with 500).
June 30, 2020 | 10:32 p.m.
35:20 last hand 99vsATs BvB
At cEV preflop sims show that we want to pure flat 55 or 66+ as well as other very strong hands (KQ, strong suited Ax). Most humans follow the line that seems more "natural" and 3b (either jam or non-AI). Have you looked at preflop sims with ICM for these BvB spots with such shallow stacks and have therefore opted to jam?
I have to chime in with the other users, great content, more please :)
June 5, 2020 | 11:05 p.m.
Potsize on the turn is 506 btw. So basically we are going nuts if a middling straight or the front door flush comes in, playing a polar big bet or check on bricks and playing very passively on the top half of the deck. This is a recurring theme when you look at BBvsIP after x/r flop.
June 1, 2020 | 8:37 a.m.
Have a PIO sim for a similiar board, it actually uses a lot of these super strong combo draws to x/c or x/r turn. However it is sometimes betting and then on the river sometimes jamming.
This runout is not great for us, so we have to be quite selective with our bluffs and also check some of our strong draws/value hands.
Here is a EQ comparison of turncards for the spot I looked at (BBvsLJ, x/r flop Jd9s5s, 100 BB deep):
As you can see, spades are very good for us and also the middling straight completers. Here is the strategy that PIO uses on the turn:
June 1, 2020 | 8:34 a.m.
This board is very good for your range, as you have alot more straights and 2Ps than the other players. Vs a smaller sizing from MP you could consider x/r although 4 way you probably want to stick to Ahi and Khi FDs with at least a bit of backup EQ or some huge combodraw like 97dd.
Vs the big size and the further action you played it well, you have too much EQ to fold at any point in the hand, It obv sucks as you will be up vs a higher FD some of the time, but still with the odds you are getting and this being a lowstakes MTT I would def go with it.
May 30, 2020 | 11:54 a.m.
This spot seems super close.
How come you have such a great understanding of it, but do not know which tools to use to analyze it :)?
You can use HRC or ICMizer. The latter used to offer 3 free sims per day on their website where one could alter ranges, do not know if this is still the case, but if you are somewhat serious as an MTT player you should get it anyway.
I would run it with the ranges the program is assigning by itself first and then input ranges that you think are more realistic (like weight KK+ at a very low frequency, QQ+ also pretty low, lower the frequency of the A5s bluff it will probably use at full freq etc).
May 29, 2020 | 9:34 a.m.
I guess I should have made it clearer, I have edited the post now. Doing anything else than getting it in is absurd. If he would have won the hand he would have never even thought of posting it. This is a perfect example of results oriented thinking.
May 15, 2020 | 12:20 a.m.
6k hands is nothing and a 40% ROI would be very good (at low stakes it is solid at least), however even after many thousands of MTTs you are usually not very close with your true ROI to your expected ROI. LAG TAG ABC... you should forget all this. You should look at each decision point and ask yourself what is the most profitable decision in that spot. Obviously this is hard to do, but there are tons of resources out there to help you improve in that.
May 12, 2020 | 5:46 p.m.
You should stop thinking in categories like "weak" and "strong" and start thinking in expected value and quantify the vlaue of one decision vs another.
Easy gii, why should you do anything else here? There is a ton of chips in the pot, you are very likely to have the best hand and you want to iso the pot vs the AI player to get his bounty. And if someone calls behind... in PKOs people call off all kinds of crap, because they think you are just chasing the bounty.