This example is quite different than the one from the vid though, as there we call bottom pair w/o a draw. I have been thinking a lot about this, but still cannot find a solution other than by calling certain 3x combos we increase our board coverage for certain river runouts, but it cannot be only that ...
Also isn't J4 a higher EV turncall also because it unblocks OOP's bluffing range much more so than QJ?
I have to agree with Apotheosis, a really great video.
It would be great if you could continue illustrating concepts that are not immediately evident by using PIO.
April 13, 2019 | 9:02 a.m.
just a quick request.Could someone from the team please ask Seth Davies to look at the comments of his vids please? He is in my opinion one of, if not the best MTT video producer and I find it unfortunate that questions about his vids stay unanswered.
It would be great if he could at least answer them on a monthly basis or so.
March 23, 2019 | 10:51 p.m.
Would a 2/3PS bet not make more sense OTT? You do not have to protect and it would allow you to jam River for ~ 2/3PS.
Also I am quite curios what your bluffing range looks like here, other than the broadway GSs. I would suspect most people heavily underbluff this spot as they do not realize that they have to keep on barreling with some no EQ hands.
In theory you should only have one huge size OTT with a very polarized range. Do you still think in retrospect it is ok to have 2 sizings here as an exploit?
Pretty interesting decisions throughout the hand. PF the 3bet size is really small. You are quite shallow, but 2,35x just seems a bit too tiny.
As you said, Flop should be a x/back quite a bit and AA should be mostly checking.
OTT I doubt that you should have a shoving range here.
March 22, 2019 | 12:26 a.m.
A++ content Seth, really appreciate the work you put in. Also once again you give good ideas into how to organize one's own off the table work. Please keep it up!
- 542r How come you do not allow BB leads? I am pretty confident BB should do a non neglectable amount if leading here. Is it because of the current meta game where pop does not lead enough on these baords and you don't want to skew the results?
- 12.40 We have to realize this is vs PIO. Almost no one is x/raising as aggressively as PIO is. Esp considering the fact that most people prolly over C-bet this boards and BB thus should x/r even more aggressively. So dont you think vs most opps getting in TT here is torching and by quite a bit?
- 19.30 I think you are a bit off here. 96s and T6s are actually blocking quite a bit of IPs b/f range. I suppose PIO is still using these combos as they just have to little SDV to x/call.
Feb. 9, 2019 | 11:50 a.m.
I do not really understand why you size so small, esp OOP. I realize that he is short, but assuming you have some amount of bluffs in your 3b range here he can almost fold nothing to this size and you also do not get max value with the top of your range pre.
Jan. 1, 2019 | 11:35 p.m.
You are making a mistake in logic here. In a 1050$ PKO you are paying 500$ for 100k starting chips. You cannot count in the rake and the other 500$ that you pay for the bounty as they are taken out of the regular prizepool.
Just take the example of a Super KO. It is widely agreed upon that a bounty is worth one starting stack in chips, so it is just logical that in a PKO it equals to 50%.
Dec. 27, 2018 | 3:40 p.m.
You make a mistake with the math of the PKO here. The initial bounty is worth half the stack, not 25% (actually even a bit more if you factor in the rare case in which you happen to win the tournament).
See also this video and thread for further discussion:
Dec. 24, 2018 | 5:05 p.m.
If one looks at Sims for these spots, EVs between using multiple sizes or just using 1 sizing (usually 1/3) run pretty close and by that I mean very close. So I am still undecided, whether it might not be best to severely simplify our strategy and just use 1 Flop sizing or use a more complex betting strat right away.
I know that most top notch players opt for multiple sizes as they prolly want to itch out that tiny bit of EV, but in my opinion it is more important to clarify, in which of the strategy choices the sum of mistakes made by us is less, than the sum of mistakes made by BB.
Do you have any opinion on that or spots like these in general, where we can use a much more complex strategy that gains us a very small amount of EV or refrain to a more simple one in order to minimize the mistakes we make?
In GTO world we obviously would always take the max EV strat, but being a human limits our possibilities and it seemed to have worked quite well even at Stars nosebleed NL CG (am referring to OBORRA).
Dec. 21, 2018 | 1:25 a.m.
I am not sure if we want to bet this combo OTT, but if we do, we should definitely go for a smaller sizing (something around 30%) and I also think that makes more sense w range and would also be PIO approved.
With stacks being as they are you would not even have to split sizings OTT here, as you would have ~ a PS bet left OTR.
Dec. 18, 2018 | 1:40 a.m.
12:00 Very suprised to see you check nines, you do not even have the 9c. Shouldn't this be a pure bet? We are very far down below in our range, have quite a bit of Value combos so that we could even implement 2 sizings and practically no SDV.
16:25 Bottom right: Flatting 55 21,5 BB deep HJ vs UTG8 vs a very competent Villain seems like a loosing play.
Oct. 14, 2018 | 11:31 a.m.
Great video as always.
Could you in hands where turn strategies vary severly in future please use the hotness tool to show the strategy for all possible turns?
Also am a bit surprised by your read (although you have corrected yourself from "average mid-/lowstakes player" to "average weak mid-/lowstakes reg") that people would overfold here. I also see a group of players trying to overdefend, because they realize, that the 2 is such a good card for us and think we donk too much, not realizing how much we are allowed to donk (was tbh a bit surprised myself, but I guess it is the best turn for us).
Sept. 22, 2018 | 5:58 a.m.
Same spot (JJ vs QTo) (~4.30)
You say QTo should not be in a BU limping range.
In this particular spot, where he is 45BB deep w BB and 20BB deep with you, I am not sure, but if BB's stack was also in that region QTo should be a fine limp imo or at least mixing.
Sept. 20, 2018 | 9:51 a.m.
a suggestion for a future vid, I know you have looked into that already:
C-betting Strategies IP and OOP in 3b pots.
From what I understood on most boards a 2 sizing strategy with a small and a big size is the way to go. Maybe you would look into some ranges, talk about different sizes and also see whether there are some boards, where we deviate from the standard strategy.
March 16, 2018 | 9:57 p.m.
do you have a 4bet/fold range here after commiting 30% of your stack? Or is it just for the small percentage of the time it goes cold5bet shove and overcall behind us and we can get away with AKo QQ?
hands we are bluffing in this spot? QJhh QJcc? Or 98hh, blocks T8 but also blocks the hands we want to fold out.
March 15, 2018 | 11:04 p.m.
I ran a sim for that spot. I ignored Doug overcalling the BB since Pio only does HU spots.
Hijack opening range: 22+,A9o+,A2s+,KTo+,K6s+,QTo+,Q7s+,JTo,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s
BU calling range:
Don´t think we can go to crazy on the button since both blinds are short. Hands with 0.5 weight are between 3betting/folding or calling/folding pre.
I only gave oop roughly the betsizes he used in game to not complicate the tree too much and gave him 3 betsizes on the river.
So Pio favours block over check with ATs in this spot.
Little side note: Vs check pio bets 30% IP with the AsQx combos (with 100% freq) against A9o A9s A8s KJo KJs. Although I am not sure if KJo KJs gets to the river often enough in Brians spot.
March 9, 2018 | 10:44 p.m.
you are mixing up gto and exploit. A gto betting range IS static. And yes, the EV would be very high if we are talking about hands, that are barely not a c/r for value. Still a bet has a much higher EV because a) we can decide the betsize and b) we extract value from hands that would have checked behind. But the reason, we bet those hand is NOT that we would be indifferent against a bet.