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75 points

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Hard Work Pays Off

The Impact of Other Results on Us

How many times have you seen graphics on a poker training site and felt bad?

This has happened to me so much that I can't explain. Especially when everything goes bad, people start to question themselves. When you question yourself and see the results shared by other players, you start to feel even worse. Because people begin to ask themselves. Why am I in this state when these people are getting these results?

But there is something we forgot. Poker is very different from other sports. In other sports, good and bad players can be separated very easily. It takes a really long time to comment on two players in poker. Why? Because there is a concept called variance. That's why you hear from most poker players that short-term results don't make any sense.

What if I told you it's very difficult to compare two players even in the long run?

Player 1 he saw a graphic of one of the students of an educational site on the Internet. He thought how great it would be to take lessons from this site. He also thought about what a bad player he was. Because the results are not like the students on this site.

He has been playing poker for 1 year and has played a total of 500K hands of NL50. Pokertracker shows he is 2bb/100 winner. He wants to improve himself. Because he also wants to be 7.4bb/100 winner. What is the problem here?

Even in 500K hands he can't be sure about his true win rate.

He can be 5bb/100 winner : Probability of running below observed win rate (2.00 BB/100) over 500000 hands with a true win rate of 5.00 BB/100 1.6947%

He can be 4bb/100 winner : Probability of running below observed win rate (2.00 BB/100) over 500000 hands with a true win rate of 4.00 BB/100 7.8650%

He can be 3bb/100 winner : Probability of running below observed win rate (2.00 BB/100) over 500000 hands with a true win rate of 3.00 BB/100 23.9750%

Poker study sites or CFP s usually share the good results of players. That means this player can be in a very big upswing. I don’t want to write it again and again but we can give one extreme example.

Probability of running at or above observed win rate (7.40 BB/100) over 35000 hands with a true win rate of -1.00 BB/100 5.8034%

Our player maybe started to learn and play good poker in the last 100K hands but he hit a very hard downswing. In this case he can double his win rate compared to 2bb/100 in new 100K hands.

Our player can be in a high rake environment which can affect the graph. Let's compare 2 players that have very different winrates.

Player Green: Played with 5bb/100 and gets %20 rakeback. Which means 1.48 bb/100 rakeback. Total win rate will be 6.48 bb/100.

Player Blue: Played with 2bb/100 and gets %50 rakeback. Which means 5 bb/100 rakeback. Total win rate will be 7 bb/100.

As you can see, maybe he has better results, while he mentally affects himself badly because of why I don't have such a graph.

Our player can be a better player even if he has a bad win rate in the long run. So many players do not play poker for a job. So that means they will never be able to play that much to deal with the variance. Even if they play 250K hands with 2bb/100 expected win rate in a year which is not that low they will experience so much variance.

95% confidence interval he will be in [-2.00 BB/100, 6.00 BB/100]

Let’s imagine two friends playing exactly the same strategy and one of them hit -2bb /100 win rate when the other one hit 6bb /100 win rate. Can you imagine how different the two would feel?

One of them will perhaps see this as a career opportunity and quit their job. The other will think that poker is not the game for him and will stop playing poker.

What can happen if they play 500K hands.

95% confidence interval they will be in [-0.83 BB/100, 4.83 BB/100]

Hmm ok. What about 750K hands.

95% confidence interval they will be in [-0.31 BB/100, 4.31 BB/100]

Of course, I am aware that these are extreme examples. But is there any guarantee that you are not one of these extreme examples?

When I had 75 buyin swings, all the other players in my group were winning. When I examined their hands, I realized that they were not doing anything very different from me. In fact, I was sure that I was playing poker more accurately than most. But I couldn't understand why I was in this situation. Players better than me said there weren't too many bugs in my game. I thought they were doing this to keep my motivation high. But later I realized this. The results in poker are not what we think.

Even when we make these calculations and give examples, we are talking about a constant static situation. We are talking about the situations that the player will experience when he plays the whole set of hands with the same winrate. But poker is not like that. Some days we play 1 out of 10, some days we play 10 out of 10.

I want to share with you the biggest lesson I learned for myself last year. Do not compare your results with anyone in poker. Because making an accurate comparison is impossible in most cases. This will do you more harm than good.

Jan. 18, 2022 | 10:54 a.m.

Nice job Cyd. Good luck in new year.

Jan. 3, 2022 | 6:14 a.m.

Awesome @HeavyMask. Good Luck in new year.

Jan. 3, 2022 | 6:10 a.m.

Post | GocceGocce posted in Chatter: Hard Work Pays Off

Hello guys. I wanted to open a forum to share what's going on in my poker life in the new year.

If I have to talk about myself briefly, I am 31 years old. I am married. I love poker. My goal is to make me and my wife happier with my love of poker. I've been playing poker for many years. I quit my job 2 years ago and since then my only livelihood has been poker.

Last year was incredible for me. I signed a contract with Pokerdetox. I convinced my wife and myself that everything would be incredible. I encountered this in my first 1.5 months.

Biggest swing of my life

(All the hands from GGPoker high rake game)

It was really hard. Because i never experience any winning day for 1.5 month when i face with that downswing. The more difficult part is that this happens right at the time of getting used to the new training site. I saw this as an opportunity for myself. If I could handle this, I was sure I would be stronger. I was very lucky because the people around me trusted me more than I did. Great things have happened with their support.

2021 NL200 Graph

In that graph i paid 19500$ Rake and get 8775$ back which is around 4bb/100 rakeback.I shot NL500 4-5 times but it didn't go well.

I didn't renew my contract this year and decided to start all over again on my own. Because I think my other missing part for me is bankroll management. I'm not very good at managing my own money, as I've had salaried jobs for years. I want to train myself more for the ups and downs of poker. My goal this year is to start playing NL500 by aggressively managing the bankroll.

I have never been a money-oriented person at any stage of my life. Even making money still doesn't motivate me much. But in poker there is no better value than money to measure my hard work in the long run. That's why I want to set my 2022 goal as earning 75K$. I know that I will work harder than anyone around me while trying to achieve this goal.

My bankroll is 40 Buyin for NL200. I will start with agressive shot to NL200 with 5 buyin. If all goes well i can stay in that limit. If not i will drop down to NL100 to build my NL200 bankroll again. I hope it will be a good year for all of us.

Jan. 3, 2022 | 6:06 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

You mentioned many times in this forum that GTO program is very useful for learning exploit games. Using the node lock feature is really hard on multiple flops. On top of that, when we constantly change the Turn and River cards, things can get very complicated. What do you think we should follow to establish an exploit game? Do we need to learn the GTO game very well?

Aug. 6, 2020 | 5:48 a.m.

Just got back from vacation. We have finished July and it's time to set new goals for August.


August Goals

  1. Play 30K hands.
  2. If you don't have a positive win, spend money on coaching.
  3. Mark different hands you play and try to develop a strategy on it using node lock.
  4. Record your deductions from these hands in a notebook, and review them again at the beginning of the week and at the end of the month.

Aug. 1, 2020 | 6:38 a.m.


Overall, I am not happy with your game. Although I knew how little bluff the NL60 players were doing, I made a lot of calls. In general, there are not many players pushing me at the tables.
It is only me that force me.

Pokerbros has no timebank, there are spots I missed while playing 5 tables. For this reason, I reduced my table count to 4 in half the hand set. I think I made healthier decisions after that.

I have some problems with my work routine. I can't work as planned as before.
In general, I would like to share a working day.Maybe there may be things I did wrong.

06:00 - Wake Upp
06:00-06:30 - Breathe Exercise, Making Good Coffee
06:30-06:45 - Warm Up (Mixed things about poker)
06:45-08:45 - Session11
09:00-11:00 - Session22
11:15-12:15 - Session33
12:15-12:30 - Quick look to handss
12:30-13:30 - Breakfastt
13:30-14:00 - Napp
14:00-15:30 - Studyy
15:30-16:30 - Session44
16:30-17:00 - Hand revieww
17:00-18:00 - Free Time (Some streching-Watching Videos))
18:00-20:30 - Crossfitt
20:30-21:30 - Dinnerr
21:30-22:00 - Free Timee
22:00 - Sleep

I plan to go on a small holiday for 4 days over the weekend. I haven't been on vacation for a long time and I hope this is good for me.

July 23, 2020 | 11:12 a.m.

Its when 6 player in the hand.

July 16, 2020 | 11:14 a.m.

Its about regular table with 5 handed and full ring tables 7 handed.

July 16, 2020 | 10:59 a.m.

I play on Pokerbros now.

July 16, 2020 | 10:58 a.m.

Post | GocceGocce posted in Chatter: GocceGocce - Take control of life

I had tried Challenge before but I failed. I haven't played well enough lately. I'm having trouble focusing. After playing about 150k hands of NL200, I thought I should step back and work on my game. I hope this forum will help me in the development process. I will start again from NL60.



July 16, 2020 | 9:02 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

Congratulations Toni. Can you share your positional win rates too?

June 30, 2020 | 5:56 p.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

I want to get your opinion on a subject. Does it make sense to work with PIO how to exploit bad players? When I say bad, I am talking about the total fish.

June 2, 2020 | 12:33 p.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

Hey Onkleb. Can you share your BB vs SB call vs raise winrate. Mine is in very bad condition. I'm looking for a value to compare.

April 10, 2020 | 9:30 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life

Yeah. Im staked. Because of this i take agr shots. Otherwise i can stay nl60-100 for 1 year.

March 30, 2020 | 12:55 p.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life

April Goals

A lot has changed in the world since I haven't written here. Because of the virus, people had to close their homes. The increase in the number of players in the games is noticeable. I want to talk briefly about what I did during this time since it was a long time to write.


At the beginning of the year, I started to try myself by playing NL60 first. Things went well. I play on a site with 60 hands per table per hour. So playing too many hands can be really tiring.


I started playing NL100 without wasting time. I was aware that I was jumping a little aggressive limit. But when I looked at the pool of players, I thought I would not have any problems. Things went well in this limit. Although I was a bit aggressive at this stage, I jumped again.


Although the NL200 was a bit more challenging than other limits, I was still feeling comfortable. At this stage, I didn't want to risk too much by playing a little more hands. There was an incredible increase in the NL400 after Corona virus. I thought this was an opportunity and I decided to make a risky investment.


This time, unfortunately, not everything was powder pink. Of course, variance had an effect. However, my game was not as clear as the other limits. I couldn't stay strong enough mentally. I thought about the reasons for this too much. The first reason that comes to my mind is that the gym is closed. Unfortunately, it does not replace the 1.5-2 hours spent in the Crossfit gym no matter how much I try to do sports at home. After sitting alone at the desk for long hours, giving everything back and chatting with people is invaluable. I wouldn't have thought that this would really affect me mentally.

Although I have been smoking for a long time, I smoked 2 packs of cigarettes this week. I know I won't start smoking again. But the fact that the sports came out of my life had a big impact in other areas as well.

I started playing NL200 again. I try to grind 5 tables as long as there is a game. In these days when we cannot go out, my goal is to play as many games as I can. I want to play 45000 hands this month by playing poker for 6 hours a day.
The hardest part for me is that I can't even spend my whole day sitting in poker for study. For this reason, I can be lazy when I need to play games. I hope I can leave this a little behind this month.

Main Goal: 45K Hands to play.

March 30, 2020 | 11:14 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

And solutions meanless when people make mistakes postflop so much IMO.

March 19, 2020 | 2:47 p.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

Yeah i also think that way. But think about pool overfolding BBvsBTN senario and we open %75 to exploit them. When you play with this rake you can still exploit but maybe this time with %50 open range. Am i right?

March 19, 2020 | 2:45 p.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

Onkleb . I can see your rake is 6bb/100 average. Imagine you are playing in another room. Rake is 10bb/100 there. Same pool. Same players. How would this affect your game? RFI from ealry and late? 3bet ranges?

March 19, 2020 | 9:15 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

Onkleb 500k pool or hero hands?

March 11, 2020 | 5:37 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020

@Onkleb. I play on small poker room and have 75k hands there. I dont have option to buy sample from there. How many hands do i really need for buy H2N hand research?

March 10, 2020 | 8:48 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on Onklebs 2020


Feb. 16, 2020 | 6:35 p.m.

Ty for video Ben Sulsky .

I just want to ask we want to 3bet or fold because of high rake. When we 3bet %10-15 and face 4bet how tight we must defend with this rake and how to adjust? We dont want to call raise pre, so can we call 4Bets like its pokerstars NL200 rake structure?

Feb. 8, 2020 | 4:35 p.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life


The channel I watched most in high school was NBA TV. There were two players I respected in the league, Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash. In those years, I was not aware that I could learn something from these players. Not only for poker or sports, but also for my life. In the years that followed, I realized something after I started to get more involved with poker. I wasn't just playing a game by playing poker. The things I started doing to improve my game also added enormous value to my life. My favorite thing is to learn new things every day, to take them into my life and share them with the people around me. That's when I met Mamba Mentality. This mentality described by Kobe Bryant was what I enjoyed doing most in my life. (You can find part of the talk about it in the link). I'm so sorry that Kobe Bryant has left us. But I will continue to remember and practice what he taught me all my life.


While watching on Twitter, I watched a video about who Djokovic consulted while dealing with difficult situations. The fact that even such a high level athlete needs another athlete is a situation that we really need to question about ourselves. Regardless of this player's own sport, the person he consults to be Kobe Bryant is another hammer of interest.


One of the biggest things I love about Kobe is that he's a relentless person. After years, I still watch Jay Williams' story about the kobe at least once a month for motivation.


Trying to always be our best version is really important for poker and life. We see how successful people who have successfully applied this to their game and life. This is not a goal, it has to be a lifestyle.

I played 2/3 of this month when I had a daily job and I played 1/3 of it without my daily job. I also got Elite membership from Runitone this month. I think that I am working less than it should be, no matter how satisfied I am with the results.



I want to update my targets on a yearly and monthly basis as it is a bit boring to set targets on a weekly basis.

2020 Goals

  • To visit a country abroad.
  • Crossfit 100 kilos Clean Jerk and 60 kilos Snatch.
  • Reading 20 books.
  • 350,000 hands to play.

February Goals

  • To look at my poker graph and poker bankroll a maximum of 4 times a month.
  • Playing 35,000 hands.
  • Watching 20 poker videos from Runitonce.

Finally, I would like to share a simple word from MMAsherdog and Runchuks's poker podcast.
"Poker is a Marathon, Not a Sprint!"
No matter how well my professional poker life started, this number of hands and the results mean nothing in the short term.

Feb. 1, 2020 | 9:57 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life

First week. I have to improve a lot.

Imagine that you wake up with a great appetite in the morning instead of going to a job you do not like. I felt like I was living for the first time in a long time. There is a really big difference between living and fudging. Even when I walk on the street with my wife, there is even a change in my self-confidence. This happens poker today is something else tomorrow. Nothing is as good as dealing with what people love.

I am aware that I am far behind the forums and the people around me as a game. This course will be balanced in the long term. Because I no longer have to spend time playing poker after I quit work, go to sports, cook and spend time with my wife. As soon as you wake up, dealing with poker as the first job is really different.

As I started the week, I asked myself the question, 'How can I succeed in the short term with bad theory and game knowledge?'

And I think his answer is a professional look.

Most people playing games at the tables today are really bad at approaching the game professionally. I want to give an example of football about this. Maybe you have heard of Beşiktaş team. He has been suffering financial difficulties for a long time and suffers from concentration and motivation as he cannot get his team money. But there is one player who joined the team free of charge in 2014. Atiba Hutchinson. He was an average right-back player in the Ajax team. He has been playing defensive midfielder since he came to Beşiktaş. Now he is 37 years old and his motivation is one of the few who can survive in this period, although his motivation is awful. It's been like this since Atiba came to the team. He is a very limited player in talent, but he really looks at football professionally. You can even understand this from his posture. Family life is not like other footballers. When there is no match, you can see him with his kids in the team's basketball game. Leader of Turkey's leading sports commentator Ozen's have a saying about him:

Atiba never has weight problems. The professional athlete has three weights. 18 years professional weight, 22-30 second weight and close to retirement third weight. Look at the Danish years, there is no gram change between the player's starting weight and the current weight. Even the oil rates are the same. The player's only handicap does not want any medicine to enter the body even in the slightest injuries. You cannot convince the atibia to become a needle.

Maybe we can count 10 players who are more talented than Atiba in the team. But we cannot count another player who has been able to play the game at the same level for many years and has not experienced fluctuations.

If I can look at poker as Atiba looks at football, I think I can get better results from them, even if I am worse than others. This is my top priority in my poker life right now.

If we come to the results of the first week, I can not catch the number of hands, unfortunately, since I play at regular tables. I can play 310 hands between 4-5 tables per hour.



As you can see, it was a week that I went lucky. It is nice to return to playing poker again with such a week. However, these results, unfortunately, do not make any sense. I have to keep playing. I can realize if I am a really winning player after 2-3 months. I want to experiment when I find fish at NL200 tables.

See you again next week.

Jan. 26, 2020 | 6:15 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life


Jan. 25, 2020 | 4:13 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life

Hello donotello. I have never been abroad in my life. My wife especially wants it.
I plan in 1-1.5 years if I am financially viable.

Jan. 24, 2020 | 11:54 a.m.

I think that you're not skipping limits shows how mentally good you are. Most people who got your results were already playing the upper limits. I have great respect for you.

Jan. 23, 2020 | 4:46 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life

I'm lucky about this. Thank you so much.

Jan. 20, 2020 | 4:35 a.m.

Comment | GocceGocce commented on A better life

Thank You

Jan. 20, 2020 | 4:34 a.m.

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