CO: $10.17 (Hero)
May 2, 2019 | 10:12 a.m.
the range he theoretically should be reppin otr is 77xx, 76xx, 66xx some 99xx combos with connected sidevalue which might be possible and A77 (which is somewhat unlikely. AA you can discount completely due to the action so far. Alltogether thats not a lot of hands.
I would ask myself if he is capable of bluffing this big and if he would check 76xx and 66xx combos 3-way otf (which is a good default play imo). The nutstraight which is not likely but possible has you beat too. He can have flushdraw bluffs.
Considering the bet oop ott is showing lots of strength and if he is a straightforward tag the most likely hands are 76xx and 66xx along with nutstraight and some nutflushdraws+sidevalue which both he is checking on an Ace very likely. For this reasons and in general when in doubt: Fold.
April 26, 2019 | 7:30 a.m.
I totally agree. Beside the strong nns and sets he might vbetting, he still can have the ns otr bc players might just call ott.
April 26, 2019 | 7:17 a.m.
I checked out your Equities.
"herefore I dont want to design the cbet size in terms of FE since I know I get called like 80% but instead try to bet an amount that leaves me at turn SPR1 when I get called by one player imho"
Thats what I did.^^ So I also don't like the half-pot sizing, it leaves me some weird turn spr. The 39% 1 villain will hit a 2-pair ott is scary, but thats not as bad as it might seem because we retain around 20-25% of our Equity even against 2-pair.
Thank you for putting in the numbers. Yes I should start checking flops in 3bp oop 3way, that makes sense. 1/3bet as you said I think is also an option imo.
April 26, 2019 | 7:10 a.m.
BB: $2.46 (Hero)
April 24, 2019 | 10:59 a.m.
lolz I thought same. But I want to point that out bc it's crucial: Looking at hands closely, making in-depth analysis instead of superficial talking about concepts someone might heard of somewhere and finally thinking hard how to improve and apply those concepts correctly ingame makes the difference between good and bad players.
We need around 8% FE only so if villain is able to fold at least some of his hands this is +ev while our hand will become worthless on blank rivers making pure bluffs quesitionable.
April 23, 2019 | 10:30 a.m.
I would 3bet pre too.
I think top-2pair it's good enough to bet-broke. it makes sense to protect against flush- & straightdraws so I like it more than check-raising. I would have pot too because with spr<4 u can gii on a blank turn. I am not afraid vs BB as he won't have a lot of mid-pairs in a cold-calling range. If you check-fold against multiple actions you still could have folded the best hand, I think it's too weak.
Ott I like your check very much. You would not accomplish much on this scare card, if you bet big into 2 players you rarely will have bluffs and the range you are reppin is so strong because u might not do that with bare AAxx. Your hands is virtually nuts at that spr. you could make a small bet like 2/5 so dominated draws like JTxx or flushdraws might call and cannot let go if they hit their hand on rivers.
April 15, 2019 | 5:38 p.m.
bet-reraising/broke at flop spr 6 (it is not 1.5) with a bare nutflushdraw is overplaying your hand.
bet-calling get you odds 1:2,5.. so you need to win back on avg 8,50$. Obviously pretty uncertain oop when a heart is the ultimative scare-card, villain indeed folded so thats not a good option neither.
I would check-call as a bet-fold is not very attractive and check-fold is too weak.
But the mistake is preflop: better flatcall to lure in bb to call in a deeper spr scenario with your nutty hand. The 3bet is very marginal at best and the flatcall is a nice alternative when you dont feel comfortable in 3bp's oop.
April 13, 2019 | 6:18 p.m.
the 3bet preflop is fine when he steals loose from the button. the check-call otf with bare gutshot is terrible, check-fold>check-raise>bet-fold>check-call I'd say. It is good that you did not turn your nutflushblocker into a crazy bluff and just gave up
April 12, 2019 | 6:21 p.m.
If I am not sure what to do with my hand in the SB completing is always a nice option. You can also complete-fold some hands of your range. AQT7ss I still openraise as a default.
Wrong, villain can have lots of hands that might call: wraps, straight-&flushdraws+sv, top-/overpairs(+gs/bdfd) and primarily trips you are aiming for, loose players will call a ton of other weaker hands aswell. Against the stronger portion of his range you are building the pot to stack him off or get decent value if he improves to an underfull, maybe flush and cannot let go of this hand. There is no reason to balance your play, he is not a good player and against loose passive players betting good hands is mandatory, you lose a lot by not betting here.
Oh boy, the turn check is terrible aswell. You miss value from flushes he might call now and fail again to build the pot for next street. Against his potsized-bet I would check-raise-broke 4value vs underfulls, flushes, trips+kicker rather than just check-calling. QQxx is actually not in his range and straight-flushes are negligible.
April 9, 2019 | 12:15 p.m.
depends on villain:
If he is passive you must bet the turn 4value by yourself,
but against floaters xc-xc is nice.
In a vacuum I prefer betting. Bet-folding turn is no big deal for me, probably it exploits the on my stakes common overly tight turn-raising ranges and is nitty compared to gto.
April 9, 2019 | 11:59 a.m.
The cold-call seems to be marginal. I would fold if the hand was less connected like QT97. But with the 1 single mid-gap we still hit pretty good and being deep ip vs CO is also a pro. But I would stay cautious 3way with pair+flushdraw hits otf.
Once UTG 4-bets allin and CO calls you cannot fold it anymore (you have 30% HvR-Equity and you get 24% Pot-Equity). But it is not very profitable and highly variance-heavy. If you assume UTG stays tight and adapts to the table dynamics by openraise-4bettin AKK, KKxx, AQQ aswell, it is certainly better to just fold preflop. If he keeps playing straightforward you still may cold-call, it is not a losing play I guess, but folding keeps you out of troubles and reduces variance. Also factor to be considered is the call-4bet of MP and if there are players behind you that might 4-bet (bad case) or are loose passive and might come a long by over-calling (good case).
April 9, 2019 | 11:53 a.m.
I think the iso-raise 4value preflop is standard.
I also would prefer to lead this flop, you have a strong hand and you dont mind if some players would fold equity. Otherwise check-call fine too. As played, I would 1) check-raise smaller vs the minbet and 2) check-raise-call against the reraise, I dont see any reason to rereraise allin. you can call and shove any non-paired turn.
April 9, 2019 | 11:36 a.m.
Nobody is check-raising. Your flop-raise is spewy. Beside AAxx, AKKx that he will have pretty often, he won't fold that or enough other hands of his 3bet+cbet range, it will also contain stronger hands like some top-sets, top-2pairs, the 13-nutwrap and 17/11-wrap. All those hands have crushed your air-type hand which is just a gutshot+backdoorflushdraw (wtf?).
April 8, 2019 | 4:04 p.m.
Considering the small turn-stab it is signaling weakness I think a raise ott is an option. No, the potsize bet it is polarized but it's not nuts or nothing, his range is much wider because he flatted pre and flop went check-check. A small raise-fold otr makes sense. Beside the K he can have underfulls which might bet-call otr.