I am currently playing in NL5. I am referring to the pots where someone open limps from one of these positions: UTG- BTN and we just check the BB with a trash hand like 85o, J3o, T4o etc having to play a heads up pot. When the board is dry like A83r, K85r, T53r etc, should we bluff a ton of hands like we would do if the situation was a spot like opening in CO and getting a call and then cbetting with ton of air in a dry board in order to take the pot down? Btw we don't have any information on the limper. We know that he is almost sure a fish because he open limped but no more info than that.
I usually don't fight for these small pots because I hate those trash hands I have to play and which also have very little equity postflop when they don't hit sth. I don't know if the limper is going to take this bluff bet seriously. I say this because we didn't raise preflop in order for them to put us on some kind of overpair or an ace like AK in a A83r board. They might call much more in those spots thus not being exploitable anymore.
I started though bluffing a ton in those dry boards when I am in BB and I just check my BB when the SB open limps. I feel more comfortable here having position.
July 6, 2020 | 6:36 p.m.
Yes. I agree about that there is a perfect range in theory and as you said, we can't know it. All those solvers reach almost the perfect range but none has the absolute perfect range. Now that I am thinking again about this, I think people give different ranges for CO because they might be biased because of the stakes they are playing. Someone who plays at micro stakes would say to open wider as a default range in CO because player pool in micro stakes is weaker. Someone though who plays at NL200 will recommend a tighter range because that's what is correct at those stakes. I agree about focusing on the exploitative adjustments also. I try to always see those spots and make the necessary changes.
About your tip for making an analysis of the population tendencies, do you know where I could find hands to buy in order to do this myself? My sample size of 71k hands is not enough unfortunately.
July 3, 2020 | 3:46 p.m.
Thanks for your comments! I just saw today the ''From the ground up'' course episode 2 on preflop ranges and Peter says to open for defeault range 32% for CO. My defeault range was 29% before. I know other players here might choose a range of about 25%. That's how much Peter suggested also in 2016 in his Grinder's manual book. Now my conclusion is after seeing so many opinions, that there isn't a perfect range. Everyone has a slightly different opinion on what the correct range is.
July 3, 2020 | 12:42 p.m.
What sample size do we need to get close to out true winrates by position? I guess it might be sth like 100k hands for each position but I am not sure
What is the standard deviation from our true winrates by position for 10-15k hands in a 95% confidence interval. Can this be found in programs like PokerTracker? The website named primedope, has a variance calculator for only the overall winrate. I want to see if there is any way to get a feeling of where a winrate by position can be in this amount of hands.I am curious to know what standard deviation each position has on average. I guess the later positions have higher because we play more hands there. The weird thing is though that the program I use named DriveHUD doesn't show standard deviation by position. It only shows overall standard deviation and I guess that same will probably be the same for PokerTracker4.
So, does anyone know to answer those questions? Thank you! :)
July 3, 2020 | 9:30 a.m.
How wider should I open from CO when there's a fish(we don't know what type of fish he is)or nit in the blinds? The other 2 players are regs who aren't 3betting very often in order to force us to tighten our range. In grinder's manual which was written in 2016, he says to go for a 37.5% range (3x sizing for fish and 2.5x for nit) instead of the defeault 25% range(2.5x sizing). The book is a bit old though and so I want to see if this strategy of opening that wide is correct for micro stakes today.
Also if fish or nit is in the SB instead of BB, does this mean that our range needs to be tighter than this 37.5% range? I think if fish or nit is in the SB, this means that they won't enter the pot as frequently as if they were in the BB(for nit that's for sure. I don't know though if the fish will play tighter from SB than BB in this spot). Peter doesn't talk about this specific scenario though and so I guess there won't be any significant difference. What's your opinion?
July 2, 2020 | 7:51 p.m.
BigFiszh ,Thank you! :)
I play 6max and my standard deviation is 96.27. However, I see it to change easily after each session I play and so I put in variance calculator 100 in order to be sure not to get wrong results.
When will my standard deviation is going to stop increasing or decreasing so easily? I don't check it often but sometimes when I do, I see that if I play 500 hands and I check it afterwards, it might increase from 96 to 96.4 for example. When will I know what's my true standard deviation? Does this take sth like 1 million hands just like the true winrate?
July 2, 2020 | 7:38 p.m.
I played almost 71k hands at NL2 and my winrate is 18.94bb. I put in Primedope variance calculator for real winrate 10.15bb and for observed winrate my current winrate at nl2. Primedope says that the probability that my winrtate in 71k hands is at or above 18.94bb is almost 1%. So this means that if we somehow knew that my real winrate was 10.15bb, 99 out of 100 times I would be below 18.94bb winrate in 71k hands. Since I am not below that winrate this means that we can say with 99% accuracy that my real winrate is above 10.15bb.
Is this a correct way to think about my winrate? We can't obviously know the real winrate unless we play 1 million hands(or as much hands as it's required anyway). However, I think this way of thinking is good to know where at the worst case scenario my real winrate is going to be.
July 2, 2020 | 6:17 p.m.
lIlCitanul Now that I see this again, I am thinking that a fish might call any Jack pair that he could have here(even with no 1 card gutshot included). What do you think about this? I think if villain was a reg, he would fold jack pair here unless it had a gutshot as well. Now I don't say that this is correct to do. What I am saying is that in general the population tendencies for regs might be like this in micro stakes. I am not sure about all of this though.
Why are you saying that we're going to bet the river often when we bet the turn as a bluff? Is it because there are many good river cards(like 3h) that make bluffing good on river?
July 2, 2020 | 6:08 p.m.
We're playing at NL2 vs a fish(no stats for him and so we don't know what kind of fish he is). He is UTG(6max) and Open limps and call our iso from BTN. Let's say his continuing range is sth like 33%. It could be more or it could be less but I need to put sth in Flopzilla and so I choose sth which is close to 30%.
Flop is Ah 9c 7c. We bet 60% bet and he calls
Turn is Js. We bet 60% and he calls
River is 3h
Preflop that is the range I gave him:
So, in the flop I put in his calling range everything that is bottom pair+ and also gutshots, oesd and fds. I also included all King high bdfds and didn't include 2pair and sets because he raises those most of the time imo(now sometimes he slowplays those but in order to simplify things I didn't include them). I don't know what he would do with 66-22 though. I think he folds those and that's why I didn't include them in calling range.
For turn, I gave him all top pairs and also middle pairs of JT and J8s because they have the 1card gutshots. He folds imo the KJs and QJs. He calls imo also the pairs of 9 and of 7 which have the 1card gutshots and those are the T9, 98, T7s, 87s
For river, about 55% of his range is top pair+ which he continues with, and from the rest, about 33% are those weaker pairs he called on the turn and 10% is the missed fds. I think that's a good spot to bluff here because he folds everything that's not top pair or better. So what do you think about the ranges I assigned him in every street? What did I do wrong? And what about the river? Should we bluff?
July 2, 2020 | 8 a.m.
RaoulFlush, I also think that calling those small pocket pairs is correct. However, I read in Grinder's manual that it's best to fold them in those spots. This book was written in 2016 I think. Maybe he changed his mind about those now and believes that it's ok to call them. Back then that's what he wrote in the book:
''The main difference between calling these opens from the BB and doing so in position is that set
mining drops in value in the BB. I recommend just folding the small pairs to this sizing(3x) as the ability
to extract value post-flop, as we know, suffers greatly when Hero is out of position.''
He calls 66 though. He folds only 55-22.
July 1, 2020 | 12:19 p.m.
Sizing of open is 3x. The ability to extract value when hitting our sets is not as good now because we're out of position. The fact that our hand is bad to continue with vs aggression when we miss is also much worse now that we're oop. So, what should I do with 66-22? Is it worth to call?
July 1, 2020 | 7:37 a.m.
Let's say that someone who we don't have any hands, open limps utg(6max) and we're at the CO, is this a good iso range? Also I am limping behind here 55-22 and 65s, 54s 86s,75s. Should I limp behind more? Btw my open range is 28% for a 2.5x size.
June 30, 2020 | 8:22 a.m.
i am playing at NL2. I want to ask the following: When we see someone who open limps and we have almost no stats for him, then what kind of Open Limp range should we assign him for positions of UTG, HJ, CO, BTN and SB. I am not asking for an exact range. I am asking for a rough %, like for example from utg when an uknown open limps, then is he doing that with a 25-30% range or more? What about other positions? I'd appreciate it if someone answers. This is very important for me to know.
June 29, 2020 | 5:54 a.m.
So, we have A9o and we are in the BB playing at NL2. Villain is a reg who opens to 2.5x in BTN. We call. Flop: Jh6s3d.
Villain cbets 60% of the pot. Should we call? If yes, then if the turn is 2s and there is another 60% bet, should we call again or not? What would the bottom of our calling range be here? I know that Ace high is stronger to have in BTN vs BB flat scenario than UTG vs BTN flat. My question is how much stronger it is.
June 27, 2020 | 8:01 p.m.
UTG: $2.14 (Hero)
Rake is $0.05
June 27, 2020 | 11:49 a.m.
Why do you prefer to call more with 87o-54o than JTo-98o? All those hands hit an oesd the same amount of the time. JTo and T9o can hit TP more often though and this can win us some times the pot when it is checked on all the streets. Also JTo when it hits a straight, it's always a nut straight unlike a hand like 54o.
June 26, 2020 | 4:40 p.m.
Does this seem like a good range to call here? From what I understood TPs are worthless here. The only things that we are interested to hit are very strong hands
like flushes, straights, sets, 2pair. Is it worth to call with as many suited hands as I listed here? The pot odds are very good. KJo never hits a 2card FD but the suited hands hit a flush draw 11% of the time and also a flush 0.84%. I think they might be worth calling. I don't mean to call with sth as bad as 72s. I think it's wrong to do with it because we'll face often reverse implied odds situations.
June 25, 2020 | 6:30 p.m.
I use Flopzilla sometimes to do hand reading. However, this process seems too easy to me. I just open the program, choose a hand from my database and then I assign a preflop range. After that I get the results on how that range hits in flopzilla. I do it sometimes in my mind without looking so it's harder. It's still nothing hard to do though. I assign villain a range of what hands he will take a certain action on flop, turn and river and that's it. The whole hand can take a few minutes. Often, I don't know what villan is going to do with certain parts of his range and so I post hands here to ask.
I want to be able to reach to a point where my hand reading skills are going to be very strong. Working with flopzilla this way seems too easy. Big progress in the long run happens when you do something that makes you uncomfortable. This is not uncomfortable. I remember back in school when I was solving math problems and it was hard. Is there any way to study which will make things harder? It's boring to try to practice my hand reading skills and for this to not be challenging.
June 25, 2020 | 6:18 p.m.
Splitsuit gave an example by saying to call hands like suited gappers, suited double gappers, ace x kind of stuff. I think he was referring to Ace suited hands only. He didn't specify what kind of hands those were. I thought that he meant offsuit hands but now I see that I was probably wrong.
Regarding with this that you said: ''Look as well for 3 other players they all suppose to have somewhat tight ranges and therefore even as strong hand as AJ is pretty much breakeven -EV preflop call, but massive + EV squeeze.'' , I don't think that people in NL2 are going to have tight ranges. I think people that called here have wider ranges than what's correct. Were you referring to the spot where people behind us were calling tightly? If yes, then how is our strategy adapt in NL2 where people probably call a lot before us. I am not interested on how to play here vs people who study GTO. I just want to know how to play this spot in NL2. Thanks for answering.
June 25, 2020 | 12:26 p.m.
Jeff_ I did't expect that we should fold on flop. I thought that we should call at least one street. Thank you for giving me your insights on this :)
For preflop, it seems very strange to me to fold KJo and favor instead K2s. I agree that K2s can flop flushes and also that it hits fds sometimes which help with its playability. However KJo makes TP about 22% of the time. K2s does this about 12% of the time and even when it does this, we have the worst kicker that exists. I understand that in multiway pots, hands that make TP often like KJo, KQo don't play well and we need to favour hands which can make very strong hands(here we're playing vs 4 people and thus this is even more true). However the pot odds are just 13.3%. There will be times when we will hit out top pair and there won't be much aggression and thus we'll manage to go to showdown and may win the hand. Other times we'll hit sth very strong and manage to get paid big.
I saw a video btw from Splitsuit(the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUuHtqOXJJk) where there was a 3x open and then one call and after this one more call from SB. Pot odds were 16.6%. He said that he would call in the BB Ax kind of hands. So, if he's calling sth like A6o, then why to fold KJo which is a better hand to have in this spot?
June 24, 2020 | 7:30 p.m.
RaoulFlush, thank you for answering. For number of hands I agree. I just checked now Grinder's manual and it says that in 200 hands, reliability for vpip/pfr is going to be within a few % more often than not. This means that villain could have stats like 20/14 which is tight but not nitty. If let's say those hands weren't 200 but 500 instead, and thus we were almost sure he was a nit, do you think we should call here? What do you think a nit would raise here? And also what do you think a tag would raise?
June 24, 2020 | 2:30 p.m.
BB: $2.03 (Hero)
Rake is $0.02
June 24, 2020 | 2:22 p.m.
BB: $2.19 (Hero)
BB lost and shows a pair of Aces.
BN wins $1.97
Rake is $0.07
June 24, 2020 | 11:45 a.m.
Jeff_ Wouldn't it be higher EV to check/call JJ in flop instead of cbetting? Villain often has here AQ and KQ. We would be interested to keep the pot small. I think maybe what kentbro1990 did might be good though because he chose a sizing of about 30% which might be good to use for cbetting this kind of hand.
I think though if he cbets these kind of hands with this sizing and he uses a 2nd sizing
which is larger like 50% for stronger hands like AQ(and overpairs etc.) then in the long run regs will notice that and then he'll start getting exploited.
June 24, 2020 | 8:16 a.m.
June 22, 2020 | 5:09 p.m.
I don't think it would be correct to fold KK on turn. Betting pot shows more strength, I agree. We block fds he can have but he could be doing that though with a fd like Qc Jc, Jc Tc. If those are very few combos to justify calling, he can also bet here sth like KK or QQ(or even a weaker PP). I don't think that villain never has KK or QQ here.