As played, bet/folding river seems best.
I can see checking flop or turn sometimes. Turn seems like most attractive check since this is a board that can be floated then stabbed a lot by IP player. Might be a good exploitative approach vs. decent players since it is the only way to really extract much value from the weak parts of his range that fold a ton to 2 barrels.
April 24, 2019 | 4:47 p.m.
Call or fold pre. His stack size makes this too awkward. It's hard to 3bet this for "value" pre since his continue range has you in bad shape. His pair range (TT+ I would guess) has you in terrible shape (domination issues). His Jx range is going to be like KJ+, his Qx range is likely QJ+ with maybe some QT mixed in (but doubt it for the 3b sizing he is faced with). So when you cant flop pairs that aren't dominated you rely on the implied odds with this hand. I want to keep the SPR as high as possible if I decide to continue facing his preflop open.
With that being said, if I were to 3b pre, I would just make it 3x. On the flop, I think I might consider checking this back. There are some decent turns for us that can continue with when he leads turn (T, K, diamonds, etc.).
I don't necessarily think you would ever have them here, but there are some lower SD value/higher equity draws that you can comfortable bet/jam flop. T8dd, 98dd and 87dd come to mind (benefit from getting better hands to fold and have a bunch more outs vs. QJdd here). QJ relies on 9 outs vs the 15+ outs that the combo draws will offer you.
April 24, 2019 | 3:14 p.m.
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Free-Study Aggression faced on turn......and really focus on rivers
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Re-invest in myself/yourself and keep fine tuning my/your game.
April 23, 2019 | 2:34 a.m.
Reasons for betting-He has Q9, J9, J8, 45,spade/spade etc. that you can get some value from and deny equity to.
Reasons for checking-He has a bunch of nutted stuff in his range that you cooler on many rivers and you don't really mind too much letting AQ and KQ continuing.
I usually check this turn I guess. Your FD makes it interesting but having to bet/fold turn when you can likely see it for 20bb and under makes me want to check mostly.
April 21, 2019 | 11:57 p.m.
Most always just calling pre. Not a fan of 3b 3 gappers like this very often at all. Lower ones are fine since you don't mind folding them when 4b and can flop the nuts vs his QQ, JJ, TT, 99 calls pre. Always Always want to see flop here with this hand and play against a weaker range than the one he continues with when we 3 bet pre. J7 on T98 isn't the nut straight and he will have some QJ here vs. 3b.
Mostly checking flop. You block his weaker calls and you can catch up cheaply when he has better Jx/overpairs.
April 21, 2019 | 11:37 p.m.
Doubt his range is going to change much vs either large size or small size. This size isn't bad but smaller is probably optimal. I think the big bet is better if you use it with 2pr+, combo draws you are going to the felt with and some stuff you can bet/fold. Here, if I choose to bet, I like to allow myself some more wiggle room since that board kind of sucks.
April 17, 2019 | 11:54 p.m.
You sizing on the flop SHOULD narrow his continue range down quite a bit. I expect QQ, JJ, TT, JT, T9, two pair and OESD's to be about all that gets to the river. That alone is going to leave him low on bluffs. JT/QT is about the only natural bluffs that is out there. 87s just got there.
He has at least 15, if not all 18 overpair combos. He has @ 10 outs that beat you. You crush his calling range and I expect all of this to call a shove. If you check, there is only a very potential bluffs. He is going to check back virtually everything that will call a shove.
Bet, Bet, Jam would be my line
April 17, 2019 | 11:43 p.m.
What Jx, besides JJ flats the 4 bet OOP? I would guess very little.
Based solely on the numbers above, he will have AQ in that range at least some of the time. I think it would be a pretty huge mistake to jam FH's or Quads on his part. There is less than zero reason to jam here for him to jam in position when you will have all 16 combos of AK in your range that can hit "gin" on the turn/river. I think we can realistically assume that a guy of these stats knows not to jam quads or FH, so if we take those out of his jamming range because he certainly doesn't want you to fold anything. So if he IS looking for folds, AK seems like a good candidate due to removal/blocker effect. Honestly, AQ and AK, along with KK and AA make the most sense here. I think you have plenty of equity to call here.
I took Quads out of his range here because even my parrot would know to check back here with quads. So if he spazzes out and jams top boat here worrying about AA or KK, you still have 46% roughly. I can't imagine he ever has Jx in this spot so I didn't include it.
April 16, 2019 | 11:46 p.m.
I like 3b pre with JJ. Makes things much less complicated.
As played, I can't imagine playing it any other way. You need protection vs. overcards, SPR is less than 1.5 and you have a clear value bet vs TT.
April 15, 2019 | 12:09 a.m.
Turn seems like the nut worst card to bet here. I assume his calling range is a bit expanded at this depth (maybe not, but I think all combos of QTs can be getting to this turn). You can still extract value from KQs and AK on good rivers. I think I check all K, J, T and 9 turns and bet the rest.
Honestly it is still probably pretty close to where you can just bet three streets.
April 14, 2019 | 11:57 p.m.
Bluffs on his part don't make much sense for this sizing, I mean WTF. Seems like weaker Ax (other than AK, A7 or A3) should be targeting Kx. This size is just atrocious if that is what he is doing. I typically just fold these spots. If I was a bit more heavily invested and the SPR was more attractive this might start to fall in the calling range but it is still dicey. There is a bunch of value shoves here I guess and you really only beat an ambitious AJ or something like that. He has all AK, KK, A7s, A3s and 77 to a lesser degree. That's a lot of combos. It's hard to find enough worse value and bluffs to make up for it and incentivize me to call.
April 11, 2019 | 2:05 a.m.
Check/call turn. Eight clean outs but they are sometimes blocked by QJ so I think we need to discount them a bit. Getting raised sucks. Tiny bit of SD value maybe. In order to bet/call a raise on the turn with KT, he needs to have some strong stuff that pays off when you bink the river. Your implied odds kind of suck in that he folds all but the strongest hands vs a shove on the river (plus it is quite obvious what you have) and he is going to check back a very large % of the time.
April 11, 2019 | 12:53 a.m.
Flop-I agree with you, bigger is better.
Turn-Never ever every checking this spot 3 way when there are plenty of made hands and high equity draws you want to a) get value from (Qx, A8) and b) get value/induce "mistakes" (AQ, KQ, A8dd, any XdXd hand, gutters, etc)
River-As played, I think enough AQ, KQ will bet this size where you can call. As played, I think you have to call.
As for alternative lines, I salivate here and just start betting and I don't stop until my stack is in the middle. In other words. bet flop bigger, bet big on turn and just jam most every river besides the obvious ones.
April 11, 2019 | 12:38 a.m.
Yeah, I agree that tons are draws are available however I block them so heavily I see very little danger. Dryish probably isn't a great way to describe it but it is gapped and rainbow so maybe Wetish is better term ;)
I completely agree that, however wet this board is, I have it crushed in so many ways that I think calling turn is best but what gives me pause is that the pot will be 46bb and his stack is 79bb or so (rounding numbers). <2 SPR isn't terrible but he can play perfectly with missed draws (most importantly FD's) by check/folding river. I don't know, maybe raising small is better since FD's will likely be forced to call regardless.
Anyway, thought it was an interesting spot for sure.
April 11, 2019 | 12:28 a.m.
GeoPur Play a few sessions where you open 100%, I think you will be pleasantly surprised by the results. I play anonymous so I treat every spot as unique and a one time occurrence. In a trackable environment, exploitative adjustments can be made, but try to stick to the 100% experiment and see how you do. Small blind RFI spots don't occur all that often due to the CO and BTN opening so frequently, so even if it happens 6 or 8 times vs one opponent during a session they are unlikely to catch on to what you are doing after so few occurrences.
April 11, 2019 | 12:17 a.m.
WTF site is this with stats like that? Good Grief LOL
I don't hate the size preflop, much prefer it to raising too small. $1.60 to $1.80 probably better in long run. You will get the same result probably, regardless of size and you have more maneuverability on the crap flops like this. If UTG is limp folding, sizing down doesn't matter. If UTG is limping to re-raise, sizing down doesn't matter much. CO complicates things obviously so erring on the bigger side is good.
Flop, I think I am checking back here. Don't need to bluff, don't need to protect much at all (2 outs for sets) and he won't have OESD's here (just a hunch based on the rock garden this site is). Betting folds out all the unpaired junk that might catch up and pay one street. Also, you hold the nut cooler vs. AK and I like to take my free card here.
April 11, 2019 | 12:06 a.m.
Vacuum spot. Nutted on turn. He will have every 2 pair, potentially all sets, but unlikely. No blockers to flush draw, but his range doesn't really consist of many in my estimation. Raising is obviously +ev but he is drawing to max 10 outs on the river (sets) and the bulk of his range is 9 outs or less. Do you think we make more in the long run calling or raising in this spot?
April 10, 2019 | 11:42 p.m.
I have no problem with the initial 3bet. The 4 bet is what concerns me (mostly because of the size). I don’t expect him to be wide enough here to make calling AJs profitable in the long run. If he has AA/KK/QQ/AKs/AKo/AQs as the bulk of his range, calling AJs is very problematic. If you have a read that he will have some polarity, the call gets better
April 6, 2019 | 3:35 p.m.
This really all boils down to him having all combos of AQ vs only the one avail combo of AQs. (6 combos vs. 1 combo). A reg checking back AQ seems quite reasonable. He has the board destroyed with all of his value combos TBH. With all AQ you have like 43% plus all of the split equity. I probably just flip a coin here and call TBH.
April 5, 2019 | 10:01 p.m.
Against his worst case scenario (Flushes and boats), you are probably close to break even on this river. I expect him to have 5 combos of flushes (AQcc, AJcc, QJcc, 87cc and 76cc), 3 of which you beat. I also expect him to have the 999 or 555. My preflop calling range with pairs would be 55-QQ (QQ and JJ would be a mix of call or 3 bet). If he has 33 in his range pre, that's only one combo by the river. He would have 9 combos that beat you and 3 combos you beat, so you are getting exact odds to break even(less rake). Based on his overall tightness, I don't expect to see 33, 53s, 64s, or 95s here.
Probably have to call here most often. Add in some weird play by AKo or something and you are in good shape.