We can also fold a bit more when me min RFI and not be penalized as much. His size is troublesome too. I think the .75bb over standard is quite important here since this is thin to begin with MW.
I still think I prefer x/c flop since we don't "turn" all that well. Our 2pr outs fill his AQ and KJ can still be ahead. We also face reverse implied odds quite often when we spike trips.
That said, it is totally feasible that once we get the turn and play it this way that we might actually win it often enough for it to make us $$$$$. Simply due to the sizing. We need to win flop uncontested 20% of the time to BE and I think we will beat his flop calls sometimes (AJ).
Might make $$$$$$ off of this particular board but we are going to get slaughered on some boards too so we have to go back to preflop and strongly consiere reverse iimplied odds.
Sept. 25, 2021 | 12:51 a.m.
Murph1969 I guess I would ask this: What about the 2/3 of the time he misses? If we raise preflop, we have more strong hands in our range and our opponent is going to perceive us as having a strong range, even in the spots we don't have a strong range.
Sept. 25, 2021 | 12:36 a.m.
KTs hand feels like we value cut the shit out of ourselves since he is fulll loaded with AA/KK/AK./KQs/KJs/JJ and he also has KQo sometimes too. Rarely has set of 4's. I would check/call it mostly with it being MW. You are up against 2 ranges and pushing like mid 20's raw equity and it is going to be super hard to realize equity except on the very best of runouts for our hand. On the other hand, for the sizing chosen, I think you come close to getting it through the 20% of the time needed.
Also have to consider what we have. Basically KJ and 44. Thats about it and the draws are pretty easy to play against from IP perspective. A good IP player will probably own us when we check turns after the donk.
I dig it more HU vs BTN vs MW.
Sept. 24, 2021 | 11:54 p.m.
So the all players report is going to be kind of vague. It has its uses. If I do an all players report it gives the aggregate (my pool is 6.8%) but this doesn't tell the whole story. We need to have a really good grasp on how our opponents respond in every dynamic (like MP vs UTG, CO vs UTG, BTN vs UTG, SB vs UTG and BB vs UTG).
The good thing is this, the % of time you get 3 bet in small stakes pools is very rarely going to extend beyond 11%. In general, you will be facing a range that consists of roughly 5 to 11% of combos, it is not necessarily a 5% range or 11% range.
A good way to visualize it is to enter a polar 5%/6%/7%/8%/9%/10%/11% range into Equilab or any range vs range tool and then also enter a more linear 5%/6%/7%/8%/9%/10%/11% range and save them. Put in your CO range and figure how how you want to continue vs each type of range (polar or linear). Most ranges nowadays are much more linear with an element of polarity in them. Most include connectors and A5s/A4s as the light 3 bets but the vast majority of the 3b range is linear/merged.
Sept. 23, 2021 | 12:11 a.m.
The above filter will isolate the spot with you OTB and 3 betting CO. If you want to see all of the hands across all stakes, go to the "My Reports" tab at the top of PT4, click the "New Report" button then check the "Hand Report" circle and this will bring up every hand that you have executed this move across all stakes.
Sept. 18, 2021 | 10:47 p.m.
These spots can make your head spin. The simple math is this: if they continue 50% of the time vs 3b (probably continues less often vs your chosen sizing), he will have 80 to 100 combos maybe (based on 160 to 200 combos UTG RFI range). Aggregate check/raise is 13% OOP as 3b caller. I expect it to be lower here in a pool that is very non creative with bluffs to begin with and we couple that with a board that has literally zero natural bluffs, they are probably check/raising boards like this 8 to 10% of the time. That is not many combos. At 10%, that is between 8 and 10 combos. Could even be worse.
So, based on your sizing preflop, he should not really have 55/22 but we all know they will have it here quite often. Also, based on your sizing, I expect them to have some AA/KK here that they play as a call.
What do we have? We likely never have 55/22. We have AA/KK/AK/KQs as our top tier hands that can value bet and we have some QQ/JJ/TT that might not be so inclined to bet this flop, of if they do, they will bet/fold.
That being said, can we ever bet/fold flop exploitatively? I mean, my plan would be to bet/bet/bet AK+ here because he call call down with KQ/KJ/AK. But once he raises, it's quite different.
What about check this back sometimes on dry boards to let him catch up with his AT/AJ/AQ? Board is as dry as they come and we need zero protection. Maybe check AK and bet KQ/KJ as our bet/folds and KK+ as our bet/continue?
Sept. 18, 2021 | 12:16 a.m.
Yeah, if you can import them, you can set up a "player" report in PT4 and just add stats like 3b/ATS/4b/etc and then run the report and that should give you a pretty accurate overview of what is going on. I used Hand2Note for Ignition but I also sometimes run the player reports in PT4. I am not familiar with HM but I am positive it can be done in that software also.
Sept. 16, 2021 | 12:13 p.m.
Do you feel that you are getting 3b more often by IP players? Or more often from the blinds?
There are a few things you can do to combat getting 3b by IP players. #1 is simply open tighter from UTG/MP (like 13/15 or 14/16, respectively) and/or you can simply size down to minimum (slashes your loss range from -300 or -250bb/100 to -200bb/100 when you have to fold). I would recommend a combination of the two. Opening small also lets you call 3b more often and you are typically in a higher SPR situation. Also, I completely ditched the SC's from my range. They play poorly in both 3b and called pots. IP is calling a ton and it sucks getting to flops with 87s when they are flatting 99/88/77 so much. I essentially open all broadways, pairs and Suited Ax from MP and I cut some of the fat from UTG. Yes, this is wider than the 13-14/15-16 range, but it has some things going for it. We flop better pairs vs their IP calling range and we block their 3 betting range with stuff like KQ/KJ (less KK/QQ/JJ) in their range.
Below are some numbers from Ignition (another anonymous site) for IP calls, overall 3b and IP/OOP 3b %'s. I am going to venture to guess they are going to be similar to GG. Just remember, in general you are not getting exploited by 3 betting when the 3b ranges are this tight.
Sept. 14, 2021 | 11:39 a.m.
This is a spot where I imagine SB is supposed to check a ton. We have a lot more on this board from a nutted standpoint than he does but he still has a bunch of overpairs. I would probe it small and probably pretty wide. I think solver will bet here 60%+ for a smaller sizing if given two choices.
Sept. 13, 2021 | 12:28 a.m.
Something just seems amiss with these Steal/3b numbers.
If, they are trying operating like this, simply pummel them with 3 bets when they steal and see how they react. Also, adjust your RFI size so you can fold/call more vs 3b and 4b as usual (I would cut the bluffs and just go ape shit in a linear fashion).
But, here is my problem with these numbers, how can a guy steal 79% (a steal is CO/BTN/SB in PT4) and only have an RFI of 20%?
Best I can come up with for you is that the 79% steal attempt is the overall stat for the 3 positions which would be 26% +/- or, if GG only considers the BTN and SB as steal positions, the steal % would be just under 40%. My pool steal 36%.
I would venture to guess it is the same thing for the 3b%. You have 5 positions where 3b is possible so you probably have to divide 37% by 5 for the top guy and 30 by 5 for the bottom guy. My pool is just under 7% and this top guy would be 7.4% and the bottom guy would be 6% 3b.
SpankoPita22 As for the hands you listed out (22, A6s, K7s I think they were) is this from showdown or do you download/see hole cards at some point?
Sept. 11, 2021 | 10:28 p.m.
a) In game, without history, I would lean towards the line you took. In game, against this guy in the future, I will be merge raising the crap out of this guy (make sure you note it).
b) In GTOland, probably going to call this river at least at some frequency. In reality, he has 24 combos of TP+ on a dry board that can take a small/medium/big bet line (this excludes when he turns K6s or 66 and this excludes him catching up on paired rivers. He dominating combos on get better here. So, he is betting pot (slightly under but it doesn't matter much), probably needs 11 to 12 worse value/bluffs here. There are some draws available but 4 of them have improved on the 6 so there are very few draws (pool is not creative and is going to be low on bluffs). What dominated value does he barrel? KTSs? QQ? I would fold here, I think we could find a call with KQ vs 3 barrels and these sizes, seems like KQ would be the very bottom here.
Sept. 11, 2021 | 9:49 p.m.
It's hard to pin down opponents ranges in this spot. I think we mostly have QQ+, AK, some AQs and KQs and maybe A5s as our cold 4b bluff??? Not sure that will be in there. We are more concerned about his range here. I think QQ-TT are almost always in there, AA/KK at some small frequency, AK, maybe some AQ, maybe some KQ, Some Axs.
I usually simplify this spot and just jam flop with QQ/KK here and check AA and JJ (if I have it). I would also just jam my NFD's (if they are even in my range).
If we employ a 3 option strategy, can't really go wrong either betting smallish or ripping it in.
Keeping ranges the same, there is very little EV loss (as shown below) employing a Jam strategy here. These ranges also assume that our opponent is playing perfectly and has the ranges I used. If they have more Ax/Kx in their range, equity denial becomes even more incentivized.
Sept. 3, 2021 | 7:37 p.m.
I think the decision between calling the 3b and folding to the 3b is pretty close here due to how they typically construct their 3b ranges from BB. We often end up with domination problems in this spot.
Should we decide to 4b, I think we should size down. We are IP so I wouldn't go too much more than like 2.2x. Gives us better playability post flop and we lose less when he lets us off the hook when he 5 bets the very top of his range.
I would take the free card on the flop more often than not. If we assume the typical 5b with AA/KK/AK/some QQ, they he has a ton of AQ at the top of his calling range, not to mention some QQ/KQ. He has JJ/TT potentially that probably check/call 1 street. We have little to no fold equity vs the nut flush draws in his range (shouldn't go much beyond AJcc in this case, so AJcc/and maybe a weird trap with AKcc). Basically, I don't think he folds this flop often enough in 4b pot. We also block some of his best 'Weak" continues since we block KhXh.
Sept. 3, 2021 | 6:42 p.m.
I would vote for bet flop jam turn. We never have 44, TT is probably a pure cold 4b in this dynamic based on GTO ranges (but is it a pure 4b in practice?) and always have AA/AK. He should never have 44, likely to often have TT, might slow play AA. If his range extends to AT/A4 here, his range also has AJ/AQ/Ax.
What is with the 6/6 stat? How big is the sample?
Sept. 3, 2021 | 6:19 p.m.
maco Yeah, I play mostly Ignition and it is similar. The highest 3b % you will find there is roughly 10% and that is BvB. CO vs BTN is between 8 and 9%.
Kind of a good rule of thumb, without player specific stats, is to assume about 5-6% MP, 6-7% CO, 8-10% BTN, 8-10% SB and around 10% for BB vs SB. Just so tight across the board.
Sept. 1, 2021 | 2:30 p.m.
Is there a way to import GG hands into PT4/HM? If you have a sample in there, you can filter it /create player report so that you can get the exact numbers from your database and can eliminate that HUD altogether.
Aug. 31, 2021 | 12:49 p.m.
For now, I would kind of eliminate the slowplays on two tone boards in these pools. We can just stick to some slow plays on rainbow boards but once we get into the two tone boards, things change significantly.
Aug. 30, 2021 | 2:19 p.m.
Not much to say here aside from flop needs to be much bigger in this specific dynamic. Shorty all-in with two calls on two tone board, I think we can combine the callers ranges and assume 2pr+/combo draws and flush draws. I am not messing around here on the flop.
As played, if I am reading this right, you have 100bb behind in an 80bb pot, simply ship all brick turns and simplify your life. Trust me, they will play this spot horribly with unmade hands and there are plenty of made hands that call (one of which is the few combos of J8 that are still out there).
Aug. 28, 2021 | 8:12 p.m.
FWIW, here is a filter for UTG/MP open and us having a squeeze opportunity OTB.
Here I am 3 betting 5.6% and have a success rate of 26.12%. This spot I am going almost exclusively linear in my approach.
Aug. 27, 2021 | 7:45 p.m.
This is the filter for a squeeze opportunity BB vs BTN/SB. You can do this for any position you want. FYI my 3b in this spot is 13.4% and my 3b success is 44.7%. This is a spot I would have some bluffs. I get folds enough. I have 4291 squeeze opportunities in this dynamic.
Aug. 27, 2021 | 7:40 p.m.
I would filter these spots in your tracker and figure out what your squeeze success rate is based on your position and your opponents positions.
It is more complicated since the squeeze has to get through 2+ opponents where the standard 3b has to get through one.
If you find you are squeezing very tightly and getting a ton of folds, you can slowly introduce some more bluffing combos. A5s is a decent one to use, also think about the removal effects with stuff like AJo/ATo. I would start with a linear approach and start to add in bluffs as you see fit. If your squeezes are working 38% of the time, we want to have a few bluffs in there. If your squeezes are working 18% of the time, no sense in having bluffs at all.
Aug. 27, 2021 | 7:03 p.m.
just add 4b opportunity = false and that should do it. Of, you can set the bet maximum at 2bet and that will eliminate 4 bet opportunities.
Aug. 21, 2021 | 11:48 p.m.
While I can't be an advocate for open limping, it should be as easy as limp=true and 3b opportunity=true and probably squeeze opportunity = false (don't want to be in spots where we get iso'd and then called by one of the other players).
Aug. 21, 2021 | 10:46 p.m.
Is he some sort of reg or an unknown?
I agree that the sizing is kind of bizarre, 31% flop and like 38% turn.
It's an interesting spot, Reg BTN is probably 3 betting about 6% here, passive fish/nits more like 4-5% and aggro players could be as high as 9% or so.
I think we just xc/xc/xc on non flush closing rivers, xc/xc/x evaluate sizing on flush closing rivers. Feels like raising or leading is mostly going to lead to trouble. I guess it's not a disaster if he bet/folds turn vs raise with AK/AJ but it kind of sucks too because there are a lot of safe rivers where we can get that extra bet out of them by not raising turn. AK is drawing to the 7 K's/J's and AJ is drawing to the 7 K's/J's, the rest of the deck is bad for those hands. On 9-2 rivers he is likely to value bet again with AK for sure and potentially AJ.
Aug. 21, 2021 | 7:46 p.m.
I should have been more clear. If he goes bet/bet with all of his Ax combos (non pair+NFD cmobos, like A5h or A8s), then we are about even equity wise on the turn.
If he cuts the non FD Ax combos from his turn barreling range, and only barrels AJ+, our equity is slashed quite substantially.
We can certainly make the argument that he will 3b some SC's pre but this dynamic (BTN vs MP) is usually pretty tight. I would venture to guess we are dominated by 12 to 15 combos (depending on range construction) and we dominate very few.
Aug. 21, 2021 | 4:53 p.m.
I don't think we are much better than about even $$$$ equity wise on this turn, and that assumes he is betting the non pair+NFD worse than A9. Not raising this turn IMO.
If he is only betting like AK/AJ without the pair+ NFD, you are at a pretty substantial equity disadvantage.
Check river and decide. All the bluffs get there.