I agree with Dan, make your OOP 3b's 4x at least.
As far as flop goes, if we flat the raise, we have what amounts to pot size effective. If he has air/low PP, he is done with the hand unless the turn improves him to a set (unless he is a spewtard). If he has a combo draw, like A5ss/A4ss, I like the jam since he will assume he has 12-15 outs and is never folding. If he has something like AJss/ATss, I like the jam also . Vs TP range, its kind of whatever. Most guys won't bet/fold with 1 PSB behind with TPGK in this spot.
I play these spots fast and furious with my overpair range+ which is 15 combos (AA/KK/QQ) so I would just balance it off with the multitude of high equity bluffs in my range. That being said, there is merit to playing this as a call on the flop also (I will almost always play the other QQ combo that doesn't include the spade fast). When he has TP+FD in play, his calling range on the flop is less constricted (i.e. he has AQss/KQss/QJss/etc.)
July 10, 2020 | 7:49 p.m.
This is only speculating, but if this guy is opening (2bet) range is truly 3%, I think we can assume that his 3b range might only be AA/KK/AKs. So, 1326 possible preflop combos, 3% of that is @ 40 combos. JJ+ and AKs/AKo is exactly 3% opening range (40 combos). So, we can assume that range will narrow substantially when he 3b+.
These player types just have a different mindset. He literally thinks no one is paying attention to him/her, plays the nuts preflop, looks to hit flops and stack guys that blast off vs. him with overpairs/top pair when he has 2pr+.
That said, he is 1/2 stacked and I don't think I can fold once I 4b him. I would take pause and strongly consider it if he is full stacked (vs this specific guy). However, I think I might mix up my approach with this guy and play nutted pairs as a call IP preflop and play accordingly. Never folding on boards such as the one we have above and proceeding cautiously on any Qxx or Axx board.
July 10, 2020 | 7 p.m.
I think we have to do it occasionally. I would check my squeeze success and look to add in a few more of them (we all know how disappointing it is to squeeze and get folds with our nutted pairs). We can counter this by getting some of these weak/high potential hands in our squeeze range. We need them in our range sometimes so we have some board coverage on lower boards. If we only squeeze the very top of our range, astute opponents will catch on and apply all sorts of pressure on lower boards.
Of course, this assumes that our opponents are paying attention but fish fold the squeezes too
July 6, 2020 | 8:38 p.m.
You can filter this for potsize 3bb or less and VPIP false in PT4 or HM. Doesn't sound like much, but these spots can become quite costly and have a steady impact on your WWSF and also Non-Showdown (redline).
For s**ts and giggles, I ran the scenarios in H2N to see what a substantial pools is doing as the limper in these spots. I am including two links to a Gyazo screenshot below:
Shot #1 is the range of hands they bet flop with when we check to them from BB. They bet 47% of the time, and their betting range is 28% TopPair+. They are betting about the same amount with low PP's/Bottom Pair/Middle Pair.
Shot #2 is the range of hands they check back with when we check the BB. Now we are dealing with a range of like 11% TopPair+ and about 17% low PP's/Bottom Pair/Middle Pair.
I did not allow for any different board textures. This is all in aggregate and the sample is pretty massive (52,000+ occurrences for the check back line).
The third Gyazo link of for when pool folds to a turn stab after checking back flop. The fold @ 40% of the time when they check back flop and face turn probe.
I would start experimenting with 1/2 pot turn stabs quite often when they check back flop and also start looking to x/r more on the flop and following through on more turns since they are going to get there with a weak range quite often.
July 6, 2020 | 8:31 p.m.
Original hand is just a cooler. Not sure about bet/3betting that board on the turn.
Hand 2, get to be best friends with this guy.
Hand 3, in a way, you got lucky to split in a spot where their 5b jamming range is usually no worse than QQ+ and AK. Sometimes you see JJ. Not saying I would fold, I just don't expect to make much $$$$ in this dynamic.
July 1, 2020 | 4:02 a.m.
It's probably close. He has a lot of hidden value here. 65cc, 65s, A4cc, A4s, 43s, 44/33/22, AQ.
He probably has @ 10-12 value bets here (very few you beat, if any). So the question is, does he turn 5c5x or Acxx or something like 99 into bluff here often enough.
Probably call since we don't block some Ac/Kc/any club for that matter.
July 1, 2020 | 3:38 a.m.
My guess would be that solvers are going to mix AQo often on the button vs LJ/HJ/CO opens which is of course a fine strategy but probably not as effective vs pools that call too much
So, getting away from playing a mix strat with AQo and going with a pure 3b strat will be more effective against pools that are calling improperly. Think about how dominating we are with AQo vs the top part of his calling range. Some thing like A9s-AQs, AQo, KQs/QJs/KJs/KQo sometimes. 4 bet ranges are so tight, it's pretty easy to play against with AQo.
The BB could be examined quite extensively if we should just mix vs LJ/HJ mostly and 3b vs CO/BTN/SB mostly. There is certainly merit to flatting some vs SB/BTN/CO though.
July 1, 2020 | 3:20 a.m.
Honestly, your line seems ok at some frequency. Flop you can mix check/bet but betting is probably going to be slightly better.
I think the turn sizing is debatable. I think I prefer sizing down a little. Like maybe $1.20 or so. Hard for him to have many draws here, aside from some weird BDFD that turns into a 9 outer or JT for the 4 outer.
River, I agree, it is hard to get called by worse. I think we can consider checking back on this specific ace and betting the other ones.
June 30, 2020 | 2:31 p.m.
Oh the rake blows. But the soft nature of the field makes up for it. I think it has been calculated somewhere between 9-11bb/100. There are some guys winning at 12+bb/100 which means they are taking 20bb out of the games unraked which is pretty substantial. It gets frustrating there when your nutted region is going through the variance stage but the good times more than make up for it. Just today I opened AA 3bb OTB, got 3b to 12 by SB (QQ, perfectly standard), BB FLATS K6s. I think I 4b to like 29 or 30 and they both ripped it in for a nice 320+bb pot.
I assume the pools are similar to the app games, I just have not investigated them yet.
June 24, 2020 | 11:35 p.m.
I play on Ignition so I am playing vs a Pool. At the regular speed tables, we can get a rough idea of a players style (can use a HUD). At Zone, it is totally readless and anonymous.
My pool folds to 3b as BTN vs SB here just over 50%. I am curious how your pool responds to 3b. What site are you playing?
June 24, 2020 | 12:44 p.m.
Yeah, that's weird indeed. My mobile app shows AJo as pure 100% 3b but KJ as 19% and QJ as 63% mixed.
So, I have not tried, but it looks like there isn't really any way to adjust the bet sizes on the mobile app. So my app has me using a 3x open, which is going to tighten things up a bit vs a 2.5x open. I assume that is where the difference is.
I honestly think it is a decent 3b vs someone who I think we can get to fold preflop more often. This player type is going to make our lives miserable when we are OOP by calling us in position and putting us in tough spots. Against this type, I like to trim some of the fat off of my range and use hand with more nut potential vs KJo.
June 24, 2020 | 12:40 p.m.
Hmmmm that's weird....just checked Snowie PF Adviser on my phone and it playes KJo as a raise 19% pre.
FWIW I always go through these without solver sims or any of that. Just 'Zilla. I did check Upswing Standard ranges and its a mix and on Fried Mulder's preflop 500z ranges its a mix too.
June 24, 2020 | 3:12 a.m.
Pre seems a touch loose really. Against a guy that is going to be hard to play against OOP, I would bluff here with stuff that flops more robustly. KJo lacks so much playability and these guys don't like folding. Vs a more ABC or standard reg its fine since you block stuff more effectively.
Flop is fine. Something else to consider is to check here with something like this. We can't only check to check/fold in 3b pots OOP, we will get pummeled. So checking here is going to be ok some % of the time looking to c/c and get value from the stabs we lose by betting flop all the time. Would probably be suit dependent. Would want to unblock some of his stabs (FD's and stuff like KhQx).
Turn is pretty sketchy, what do you think about checking KJ here and barreling AJ+ for value? That 5 is pretty insignificant from a straight draw perspective but it is significant in that it now opens up some TP+FD on the turn.
River, like the turn is quite sketchy. Probably a call vs this player dynamic but it is a small sample.
June 23, 2020 | 11:10 p.m.
Folding pre. I would 3 bet a CO RFI some % of the time here, but the limper complicates things. If I were to bluff raise this spot (quite rare I assume) I would choose combos that block the nutted pairs and those that can outflop (pr+) the stronger parts of his passive continue range (They flat QQ quite often here, they flat a ton of JJ-66 here too vs. a 3b). Would rather have like A3s or Kxss if I took an aggressive line in this dynamic.
As played, I would call flop. Good player will see this for what it is and dump stuff like A8, A9, AT even AJ when you raise. Pool plays this spot quite honestly I would believe. Board blocks Ah FD's and pair+FD. How much Kxss do we expect to see here?
Also, concerning the size you chose on flop, > 5x seems entirely too large.
June 23, 2020 | 10:25 p.m.
Perfectly fine. Your value range is massive here (JJ+, ATs, A4s and 54s if you 3b some low connectors from SB vs. BTN) and I think you need to include JJ as a barrel off on this runout since he is going to have AT/KTs/QTs/JTs as a weak passive type.
June 18, 2020 | 11:17 p.m.
Familiar with MP2? If the 23/9 guy (MP1) is truly this weak/passive, his (MP2's) squeeze can be a bit lighter here. The historically bad BB who flats this spot does not concern me. If he flats AA here sometimes, so be it. I expect to see more TT/JJ/QQ and AK from him than AA. I expect him to call a lot of jams. Ripping here will probably be most effective and also appear to be a weaker range than a range that 4 bets to $6 or $7 here.
June 18, 2020 | 11:12 p.m.
Looks like a bad stretch or coolers to be honest. 10,000 hands isn't much in the grand scheme of things. Those yellow lines really take a hit when you hit the patch where you flop 2nd best in low SPR spots (KK vs set where u bet/jam or bet/bet/jam, couple KK vs AA spots, set over set, etc). You green line is substantially higher, so you are running hot in a lot of spots too. It doesn't take too many of the above mentioned coolers to really skew that line in the short run.
Darren Wee covered it nicely. Value betting is so very important. You can look at your showdowns and you will find that you are checking the winner too much. Thinner value betting will improve that redline almost immediately. Also, look at the tiny pots (like spots where btn limps, sb folds and you check bb or sb limps and you see flop in BB in limped pot) where you can just attack the checks and start picking up those little pots, they add up, will improve redline and will improve WWSF.
June 18, 2020 | 11:01 p.m.
How many hands do you have on this guy?
This flop, along with KQJ or KQT, are just disasters for your particular hand.
I can't fault you for calling on a non diamond turn but folding vs heat here is probably correct from an exploitative standpoint. We destroy him on so many different boards that we should give pause on textures such as this.
A GTO 3b range here is like 100-115 combos. Pools 3b range is lower, more like 90 combos. He faces a 4b AND continues. 9's might not even be in his 3b range to begin with (should be sometimes), so I doubt he ever gets to this flop without TT+. I expect to see traps here quite often with AA, I expect to see AK, I expect to see KQs, QJs and maybe JTs, he doesn't have much more than that. So what does he bet? If we consider only his value range, what do you expect to see? TPTK+, we are smoked vs. this range. Is a nit going to lead JJ/TT here then follow through on turns? So, we are smoked vs his value range (at best, we split with some AK combos). Does he have enough bluffs or worse value (JJ/TT) here to make up for it.
June 18, 2020 | 10:49 p.m.
MatoStar Amen to this.
June 17, 2020 | 12:58 p.m.
Tricky board. MW, potential sets, 2pr, etc. Probably lean towards check flop but bet is reasonable too. Qd can be bad for us also.
Lets not forget that he raised (passive pool) a c bet MW 2nd to act with 3 behind. This is mostly going to be sets and straights so that 6x turn does complicate things on 6d rivers.
Our implied odds suck too since it is going to be really difficult to get paid on diamond rivers unless he has Kd and he still might not pay off with a worse hand.
Sucks but turn is probably a fold here.
June 16, 2020 | 10:15 p.m.
RunItTw1ce this is Ignition's Pool HU Donk bet breakdown by hand strength. It's overwhelmingly weak but highly effective. Donk bettors will entirely too often
RunItTw1ce this is from the same page, but more an overview. If you take the colors for the ranges from the 1st link, that is how those colored bars are made up. You can see that hand strength doesn't change much across many different bet sizes. Overall the pool is donking 18% (I get donked into 21% but oh well LOL). Look how often the donk bettor wins the hand (70%). That isn't street specific. That means they win the pot 70% of the time regardless if it is on flop, turn or river.
I would venture to guess that Stars pool is going to be better overall than Ignitions. I would assume it is fairly similar though. Remember, we have 100% clairvoyance on Ignition where you probably don't get to see much of the showdown stuff on Stars and other sites.
So, we can be confident that guys are donking only 13% of their donking range consists of TP Good Kicker+ while 16% of their overall donking range is made up of TPWK (as you mentioned, guys are donking stuff like K4 on that K93r you posted above).
So, how to attack those ranges will be debatable depending on style, etc. Personally, I would never (almost never) raise K9/K3, KK/99/33 here. I would let them at least barrel turn to get that extra bet we lose by raising flop. So what do we raise? I would be bluff heavy here (especially nut potential bluffs). I might even raise something like 55 to try to get him off of some 9x (we can get him off this sometimes on turns) or can improve completely disguised when he bet/continues vs small raise with TP. Hitting a set here is lights out when it can't complete any draws. I would call TT/JJ/QQ and potentially raise 88-44 some of the time due to how robust your hand becomes when you do spike. Spiking a set with TT-QQ can be a disaster when they donk/continue with gutter draws.
June 16, 2020 | 9:54 p.m.
I don't mind your line at all.
MW I don't mind a flop check either (protects are x range but that's not so important in 4 way dynamic). They are capped, so as a whole, they don't have the best Qx here where we do. They also have middling pairs and also BTN will probably Call pre with stuff like A5s, 65s 54s. Checking flop is probably the best way to save $$$$$ when we are behind and extract from some bluffs/worse value on later streets.
June 16, 2020 | 6:43 p.m.
So the nice thing about anon tables is that you can get a bit out of line and no one will ever know. I play 2 zone tables and then 2 regular speed tables at the same time. Regular speed tables allow a HUD (PokerTracker4 has a Ignition/Bovada Hand Grabber). vs. Regish appearing players, I get out of line somewhat. BTN regs will figure SB 3b about 8-9% as a pool, so I counter this by 3 betting more and they just keep folding. Can do it out of BB but less often. Overall 4b range on Ignition is less than 3% in aggregate, so regs are going to respond vs that perceived range, so I call less and 4b more.
However, c-betting out of position is by far the most glaring leak that pool has. (Especially out of the SB). You can just destroy them by floating and betting vs their checks.
Two heuristics you can try on that site are this:
1) Float BB vs SB and any other time you are IP and just close eyes and bet vs checks. Also, when OOP and you check and they check back, try betting turns ALOT.
2) Bet/Fold a lot. The bluff rate is quite low there on the later streets so you can be confident that when they raise, they have it. If you get bluffed once in a while, so be it.
June 16, 2020 | 6:33 p.m.
I am in USA so my options are limited. I am not affiliated with any poker site. I would say 95% of my time is spent at Ignition. America's Cardroom or ACR is another option but the anonymous nature of Ignition makes it difficult for regs to counter-exploit since they are playing against "pool" stats.
June 16, 2020 | 5:40 p.m.
Turn seems kind of iffy. Don't like drawing to "miracles" against guys that just blast off mindlessly since we have to x/f so many rivers. That said, he still can have stuff in there that we beat. Do we make enough on rivers when we hit to justify a losing call (paying 3:1 on a potentially tainted longshot draw)?
River I agree that this is a good combo to call.