How wide are you 3 betting in this dynamic (deep + SB)? Do you ever have sets here? I think TT, possibly 99 would be the floor of my pair 3b range. Since you are so deep, I might consider calling with some stuff in SB. Most notably, stuff like TT or 99 through like 66 or 55. I want to always see a flop with those middling pairs and getting 4b really blows preflop. I also might ditch some of the polar 3 bets I would make with A5s-A2s and stuff like that. Flush over flush is the bomb as stacks get deeper.
I think I might call turn though it is probably pretty close. He can have AK here this deep sometimes. Also KQs, maybe KJs and KTs. I think KJ and KTs. He can even be putting pressure on you with like TT or JJ with a spade. He also has all combos of JTs (one of which is extremely high equity).
June 9, 2019 | 7:27 p.m.
Pre can be a fold but I really don't mind the call being so deep (Nut Flush hands are awesome to have this deep). 100bb deep I will fold this probably.
I know in my pool, anytime I bet river and face raise, it is 80/20 value/bluffs and super thin value. I just went through 100 hands of this last night out of my DB. I was going to continue with the other 300+ hand sample but I think it's clear that any 2 bet+ on the river is weighted heavily towards value.
In my pool, I am probably blocking smaller on river and folding to a raise. I think I get called here sometimes by AQ, AJs and maybe even ATs on the river.
I think I like bet/fold better than c/c on the river but am not too sure. The nice part of check/calling is that you leave some bluffs in his range but quite honestly there aren't that many missed draws in his range here. He probably checks back AQ AJ AT here and bets his good 2 pairs+. By blocking for like $4.75 or so, you can squeeze some value out of the AQ AJ AT in his range.
June 9, 2019 | 6:52 p.m.
This really all boils down to fold equity and his range. At first glance, this looks like a shove, but we need to investigate it.
Scenario #1-He Never Folds and his range is made up of AA, KK, QQ and remaining AK combos. You are 2:1 dog and best case scenario you can only tie with his AK combos. Not a good spot. Again, this is assuming he will trap with AA/KK here.
Scenario #2-He has this same range, but he folds all his AK combos when you jam. He has 12 over pair combos and 9 AK combos. He calls 57% (12/21) and he folds 43% (9/21). So when you jam, you win $1.29 43% of the time or ($1.29*43% or $.55 when he folds). Your equity vs. his calling range is 18.5% and his equity is 81.5%. He calls 57% of the time. So:
(43%)($1.29) + (57%)(18%)($1.29+$1.43 which is what you win when he calls) - (57%)(82%)($1.43 what you lose when you jam).
($.55 + $.29) - ($.66) = ($.84) - ($.66) = $.18 (Jamming is best in the long run)
In reality, we have no idea what is range is here. I have had guys call with stuff like 55 preflop in spots like this (microstakes ;))
Say his range is QQ-99 here as his pairs, Your equity vs. that range is about 27%. Assuming he has AQs and AK here and folds them, you are going to get folds 33% of the time and called 67% of the time. It is still going to be a +ev shove.
TBH, I am not sure about the sizing you chose preflop. I am curious to see what the others have to say about it.
June 9, 2019 | 6:34 p.m.
Line seems fine. Can consider folding turn for this size without the pair. Not a fan of raising flop with JTcc here. Your pair outs can easily be no good.
Best bluff raises here are 76cc and 43cc (simply due to their equity vs. his value range). You can get it in if he bet/3b. How often are you raising your value hands here in position? Are you raising 2 pair, sets, straights? Against a weak donk betting range (Top Pairs with BDFD, middle pairs), I don't want to be value raising much here (won't get called often AND you will crush his strong TP hands and have very little risk). Against a strongish donk betting range (Two Pair, Bottom Set, High Equity FD's), we can probably wait to start extracting until the turn. Against a nutted donk betting range (All sets, and straights), I want to see a turn to either a) catch up with my sets vs his straight (highly unlikely to have) or b) try to catch up with my 33 vs his 55.
Basically, if you are going to raise a bunch here for value (on the flop), you are going to need to start finding more bluffs to balance things out.
June 6, 2019 | 4:45 a.m.
Preflop-Prefer to 3b stuff like this, but call is ok at some frequency.
Flop-This is like one of the worst hands you ever have here. Tempted to just take a small shot on the flop and just being done with the hand.
Turn-Turn is pretty bad for you. He still has a bunch of Kx sooted and also some Kx offsuit in his range. As played, not betting flop, I am just done with this combo here.
June 6, 2019 | 4:11 a.m.
You are getting a little better that 2:1 on river. Against his value bets (60 to 70 combos), you are dead. I am assuming he stops barreling 22/33/55/66 on this runout. You need @ 33%. He has to have 30-35 bluffs to break even here. Do they ever have that many bluffs here? I think I start calling TT+ here. 99 is close, but it is still probably a little thin.
June 6, 2019 | 4 a.m.
Nice Video Jeremy!! I myself would love to see you expand on this a bit and venture into your technique(s) for setting up node locks. In micros/small stakes this seems to be extremely important to adjust the sims to our own player pool tendencies. Would love to see more comprehensive guides/videos geared towards this.
June 4, 2019 | 1:07 p.m.
Flop seems fine. He hits this board a ton between TP, stuff like JJ, better Tx, etc. I think my betting would potentially start here with JTss. You block some stuff. I know, you block KJ with T9 (so the 9 is bad), but he also has 6 live pair outs vs. your T9. I would much prefer check/calling this and betting JT (if I ever did bet lighter here).
Turn is well played. Your two pair outs are highly compromised on this turn so you are basically looking for one of the two T's and that might not even been good if this loose appearing guy ever flats J9s here (I would most always expect it to be part of his range in my player pool).
May 28, 2019 | 11:25 p.m.
I think I check most AK here, especially this combo. You will have a very condensed and top heavy range here. Something like JJ+, AT or AJs+, KQs and of course all AK combos. A or K on turn aren't that great. He has most AQ and KQs. Not loving A or K turns. What are his bluffs here and does he have enough bluffs to offset the times he has AQ, KQ, QJ, QQ here? I check/fold this flop.
May 28, 2019 | 4:09 a.m.
I think maybe check this JJ combo and bet the ones with a heart. Heart is nice to have since you block some continues (JThh, QJhh, QJhh) and you block flush completion if one of them has any heart/heart combo. Of course I am referring to the flop. You can bet good turns (this is not a very good turn though).
May 27, 2019 | 11:41 p.m.
Pran A simple example would be you opening the BTN 50bb deep and you get 3b by the bb. If he 3b to 10bb and you call, the SPR is less than 3. Now consider the same situation but you are 100bb deep. Now you have an SPR between 4 and 5. Lets say we know BB has AA. In the short stack scenario, you basically can never call and outflop him. If you are deeper, you can call profitably with some holdings. This is very simplistic, but typical calling hands vs a 3bet need better implied odds.
May 27, 2019 | 4:16 a.m.
Pre should be a fold.
If you bluff turn, choose something better than 88. Overall you are at a Massive range disadvantage on this board. If I were to bluff this turn, I would choose something that can catch up vs EVERY possible hand he can have on the turn. My choice would be like 98hh, 87hh, 76hh, 65hh. You have @ 15% equity vs. @ 2% vs. his pair+ range. I do, however, think I check T9hh behind because having to bet/fold would be a disaster.
May 27, 2019 | 4:09 a.m.
Hands that can flop well. I would usually choose PP like 99 and less. Your implied odds are off the charts and pocket pairs are fairly easy to play. Never want to fold them and putting in a huge raise after so many players have entered is very risky, especially having to act first postflop.
May 24, 2019 | 2:49 p.m.
I haven't solved it or anything, but at first glance this river looks like it plays better as a check/call. The only hands you can really get much value from by betting are AK and KQ and those are kind of unlikely due to them wanting to bet vs diamond draws on the flop. A bunch of stuff gets there and he can still have KJ (it's blocked, I know), KT, AQ, Q9dd (and all Q9s possibly). He has turned sets.
You likely get bets from bluffs/worse value when you check. When you bet, his range naturally will become stronger.
I don't know if I have ever analyzed this line before. Check/Check, check/call, lead/raise seems kind of weird.
May 24, 2019 | 4:04 a.m.
I rarely, if ever, flat anything in SB. Especially vs CO or BTN RFI. Ranges are wide and there are folds a plenty. If the line went UTG 2.5x, MP call, CO call, BTN call, I would have a calling range here.
I think all Axs is fine to open UTG.
I think all of the folds it advocates in MP vs UTG seem ok, especially in higher rake environments. The high rake makes calling marginal at best.
I can see calling KTs/QTs OTB vs UTG in good scenarios. Weaker UTG player and terribad blinds in once scenario. Folding KQo OTB is fine vs UTG.
The folding A3o and A2o OTB vs RFI'ing them is not too big of a deal IMO. I would open them in most scenarios, but folding isn't a disaster either.
I can get behind flatting A8o and K9o-J9o. However, I want to feel comfortable that I can win pots at least some of the time w/o showdown.
Overall, I think snowies PF advisor is quite good. It's on the tight side, yes, but that's not a horrible thing in the microstakes.
May 24, 2019 | 3:42 a.m.
Pre you can probably call (depending on blinds). I have no problem 3 betting either. He has AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ, TJ (suited) in his 3b calling range here. You basically have zero J's besides JJ when you 3b. I think my 3b range vs Lowjack is like QQ-AA, all AK and some sooted wheel aces.
Turn-If you have enough BD diamonds that turned a 4 flush (i.e. you floated flop with A5-A2dd and AKdd), you can let this go. If you didn't float diamond draws, might have to call this. belrio42 summed it up quite nicely above.
May 22, 2019 | 3:53 p.m.
After 15 hands I am not thinking too much about his stats (he has played @ 6 hands and raised 5 of them, could be a good run of cards for all we know). If it was 150 hands, I would start to make some assumptions. After 1500 hands, if he is running like this, I would feel you have a solid read on him being some sort of Loose Aggro type (good aggressive or bad aggressive remains to be seen).
That being said, I think I would play it similarly regardless of hands. As a side note, and probably not a big deal, but 4x or even a touch more is probably better size preflop for two reasons a) you are deep and b) you are OOP.
May 22, 2019 | 12:47 p.m.
Everything seems fine. QJs is fine to 3b pre. You are deep AF. I don't think you are drastically overfolding if you fold QJss and QJdd and continue with QJcc and QJhh. Getting 3:1 its close. This deep its probably not horrible to call all QJ but sticking to the two higher equity combos should be fine also. I think I check/call KQs (all combos) here though. He probably never has QQ+ here, but he will have JJ at least some of the time. I like to have 6 clean outs vs 3 clean outs here.
May 22, 2019 | 4:57 a.m.
Flop-I am kind of torn (didn't solve it). I think A8s and 98s are the only top pair combos you have here, while he has A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s. You have a substantial range advantage on this flop and a very solid hand vs range advantage. He does however have a bunch of unpaired over card combos with between 3-6 outs vs your pair. These types of hands will have like 30% to 35% equity vs your hand. I think I prefer betting more like .07 to .09 here. Love to capitalize on equity denial. I think our overall range benefits greatly by betting bigger on this flop. I don't like checking ever so anywhere from .04 to .09 is probably going to be close. If you choose to make the bigger bet starting with A8+, I would have no problem with that either.
Turn-Seems perfectly reasonable. I guess you could consider going to thin value/protection with A8s and 98s but you need to proceed with caution on any K, Q, J, T or 9. All in all, I think betting is probably slightly higher EV due to the folds it will generate in the long run.
River-Some stuff gets there, but given the price and there being a bunch of Kx pair combos that can have club blockers seems like a pretty easy call.
Seems like you played it fine. Turn seems like the most interesting street and I think it can be bet or checked.
May 22, 2019 | 4:49 a.m.
1) No problem playing a mixed strategy with this combo. I think I always 3bet spades and hearts but that is just my randomizer.
2) I like the call. If I raise here, I prefer to do it with like A4s, A3s (more nutted outs vs AQs) which can continue more comfortably vs a bet/3bet. Remember, you probably have zero sets here (maybe you have 55) so what all are you value raising?
3)Turn seems fine. I am always calling here. Worse spades make a lot of sense for him to be barreling. The price isn't great but it is not horrible either. You potentially have some A outs and maybe even some Q outs vs his pairs. Seems fine to always call here.
4) I don't like it. You block a ton of folds. You need him to be check/calling, check/calling a bunch of AQs, AJs AsXs and QsXs here, and you have them all ;). If I got to rivers with worse spades here, I would bluff those since better unpaired spades will fold. With this combo, you can check back and win vs. his unpaired spades that he chose not to bluff. Holding the AQs, I would assume his range is going to be weighted towards a bunch of pairs that check/call river.
May 22, 2019 | 12:30 a.m.
I am curious about the flop bet (action, and sizing), especially at this stack depth. This seems like one of those spots where your hand is best @ 3/4 of the time but your equity is close to 50/50 vs a continue range. This makes me less incentivized to bet without the initiative in a spot that all nutted combos in his range (flushes, and he has a bunch) should bet checking. He will rarely have sets here, but I can see sets looking to check/call or play safe turns when flop checks back.
As played, I don't mind the turn bet (after betting flop). With the sizing you chose, he will have some TP+FD and overpair + FD which you can continue to get value from.
In my player pool, river is a fold. He has at least 15 combos of flushes here. He might even have some straights here than jam 2x pot. I have even seen sets here. Is he a player type or is the pool capable of turning TP/TK with Ac into a bluff here?
May 22, 2019 | 12:08 a.m.
Flop-Check seems correct most always. Against the occasional trap (AA, KK) you want try to get a free one (assuming they always call/raise when you bet). Against a more standard 4 bet calling range (QQ, JJ, TT, even 99), you want to try to get a free one (assuming they always call/occasionally raise). Against KQs, you want to let him catch up on either the K or Q. I guess betting has some benefits vs AK if they ever fold it. AQs is the most intriguing holding since you catch TP/TK when he hits a straight. Are you ever able to get away from it if they go crazy on later streets? However, he might go broke on a Q turn. Do they cancel each other out? If he bets smallish do we check/fold this combo and continue with BDFD's only? I don't think check/folding 1 out of 4 AKs combos isn't going to be a disaster on paired board.
Turn-I don't hate the bet, but I think I prefer a check. I think he rarely bets AK/AQ/KQ here and I think he is low on bluffs in this spot (due to him being a reg flatting a 4 bet OOP). All of the above still kind of holds true. If I had AKs or AQs, I always play those as a check/call (within reason) and I think you could potentially check/fold this combo on the turn.
River-I am always checking trying to showdown cheaply in this situation. It's a 4 bet pot ranges "should" be quite strong here (UTG vs UTG+1). I would expect every 2 pair+ to be calling this shove and I can't fathom him calling with anything you beat here. So basically you are in a situation where he rarely folds, has a bunch of calls that play this way and virtually no calls that you beat
I guess I would try to check down here. Probably check/folding the turn if he bets a decent amount unless I have spades.
May 21, 2019 | 11:43 p.m.
Kinda like betting this flop bigger TBH. He will likely have close to 9 combos of 3xdd. He has OESD, he has OESFD, he had some OEGSFD potentially, not to mention the 30+ combos of FD's. He also has 88-55 here and I doubt they are folding and I think all of the pair combos with heart blocker will call. There are a bunch of disguised nutted turns for his 3x range. K3, Q3, J3??, 73dd, 63dd, 53dd, 32dd????? I do believe all 3x will call a large bet on this flop.
Turn, I think Q3 is a slam dunk combo to be in his range. So you now have 5 combos that you lose to. I still feel like there is a ton of 3x and all Qxhh combos that for sure call flop. To me this seems like a good spot to 3b this turn. It is a little awkward since a jam is quite the overbet but I think its not too bad since you either a) get terrible (FD) calls b) FD's fold out (complete equity denial) and most importantly c) he has calls on this turn that you destroy. I would prefer for the pot to be more like $4.50-$5.00 when I get to the turn which makes a shove a little less awkward but I don't think it can be bad either way.
May 17, 2019 | 2:36 a.m.
I think you played it fine. There are plenty of folds in his range and your bet size is pretty good on the flop. I think he continues vs this size with all his Ax combos, KQ (nut non-pair), PP's (TT is probably his best pair here) and the boat.
Turn is fine. I do not like any K, Q or T on turn. You can probably check/call most brick turns if the bet is reasonable. I can see him potentially stabbing KQ sometimes on good turns. He can't only value bet this turn and if he does, you know how to exploit it.
River T is a terrible card. TT makes a ton of sense with this line and I don't think he is going to turn too many underpairs into bluffs (but I might be wrong about that). I am check/folding here.
May 15, 2019 | 12:18 a.m.
I would approach it this way. I would filter the hands out that I think he will cbet for the cbet analysis.
And Then unclick the filters and then re-filter for the hands that I think will check.
Should not have to re-enter ranges. You can manipulate them and do whatever you want with the ranges as long as you have the baseline ranges saved.