Can't really see any other way to play this. Cooler really.
March 19, 2019 | 12:54 a.m.
I think PF is close. Might be a solid call with BB in hand too. Heads up I am mucking/4 betting some small % of the time.
If you think about it, checking flop makes a bunch of sense. You don't want to lose worse FD's. There are a ton of overpairs, better Ax, sets, straights even (fish will have straights here sometimes) that you get to draw free against. The biggest thing is, I don't want to ever get check raised here.
March 19, 2019 | 12:50 a.m.
I think QQ is the bottom of my calling range here (in a vacuum situation). He can have AT and also JJ here. And they also show up with some weird stuff here from time to time. You played it fine.
March 19, 2019 | 12:38 a.m.
If you choose to fire turn, I think this has to be one of your bluffs on the river. You have plenty of value to be doing this with so you have to have some bluffs and this combo makes the most sense. I feel firing turn is mandatory with the other 3 combos of 76s but this one can be checked quite often. Kind of think 76cc, JTcc and maybe even KTcc are good candidates to go along with the value you double check/raise here.
I think it is fine as played. There are just other lines than can be played also.
March 19, 2019 | 12:33 a.m.
I should clarify, My overall sample is 300,000+. The filter produced just over 5000 occurrences. Yes it is Me in BB vs. SB Open (steal attempt).
The above numbers are from the filter. Winrate is -33.82bb/100 and my VPIP is 50.09 in this filter.
March 18, 2019 | 6:56 p.m.
I agree, it's hard to find calls in his range here (that you beat). Maybe some weird under bet could be OK. If the only thing betting does is fold out under pairs and missed draws (things you beat) and get called more often than not by things that beat you, then betting makes little sense. In a trackable environment, I think the bet is better since you don't showdown when you get him to fold, which is a plus. The thing that sucks is that it's hard to make bluffing successful with small bets so what else are you playing like this except razor thin value bets like KK and QQ.
March 18, 2019 | 2:08 p.m.
Flop-Fine with calling and raising. I hate donk bets so I would probably raise this enough to punish FD's
Turn-As played, its fine. I see no reason to ever raise this
River-It's thin, but I like it. He can still call with worse J's and also with some turned K's. My plan would be to bet/fold here. Like the size too
March 18, 2019 | 1:14 p.m.
As played, this is probably fine. With two opponents, it's kind of hard for one of them not to have a J, so checking turn is fine.
I prefer to 3b pre, narrows the field usually and makes hands much simpler to play postflop. His open size is 3.5x which makes me want to 3b even more and call less.
March 18, 2019 | 1:07 p.m.
This hand history is bizarre.....how do you call a $4 raise with $1 invested for only $2? The call should be $3 right? Sometimes weed and hand histories don't mix but I think something is wrong. Probably just a $3 call and the converter messed up.
March 17, 2019 | 2:20 a.m.
What are your thoughts about some weird overbet on the flop? Winning the pot right now on this board seems like a good thing but can we be confident in folding if raised? Is this play only good with QQ since there are more set combos that can call/raise vs overbet? Say we are called in one spot and this turn comes do you just jam IP vs a check and what is best way to play safe turns OOP?
March 17, 2019 | 2:13 a.m.
PF-Always folding to that size.
Flop-I am mucking. T's and 7's are cards that I have very low confidence in. 9 is a good card, but that's 2 outs. Seems like a board you are going to face too much heat on too many turns.
Turn-Fine as played
March 17, 2019 | 1:50 a.m.
That rake can't be right, can it???
Do you think he ever has AK here? I know they will have some AK in this spot down where I play. If he does have AK in his range, I am checking flop here.
If there is less calling with AK here, I think your line is just fine. Flop is getting kind of thin, but calling is going to +ev. Turn I like your fold.
March 17, 2019 | 1:44 a.m.
I know GTO+ can do this, I am just not sure of what their terminology is for it. They might also call it node locking or they might call it "set strategy" or something else. But it all means the same thing. Think of a node as a decision point. You lock that node or decision point and make your adjustments to their range and re-solve and you will get a more accurate assessment if your ranging is close to being accurate. Wrong ranging=wrong results and good ranging=good results.
March 16, 2019 | 10:31 p.m.
Hmmmm, I got a notification that you asked "what is node locking?". Not sure why it's not in this thread anymore. I am not sure what it is called in GTO+, but it PIO you can lock a node (a certain point in the hand).
Running a SIM range vs range is going to produce a GTO solution range vs range. The range stays consistent for all streets (trying to keep this as simple as possible, I might not have worded that 100% correctly). This is the output the solver will give.
With node locking, you can set your own strategy basically. Say you get to the turn, and the solver says that your opponent is bluffing/value betting in a balanced manner but you know this particular opponent is going to be raising only a few certain specific hands (unbalanced with way more value than bluffs). You can lock that "node" and input the specific range of hands he raises/calls/folds in a certain spot and the re-solve and the solver will base its results on the specific range that you assigned based on stats/population reads. It will then adjust your range accordingly. It might have you bet more often, might have you bet less often and might even have you check/bet range in that particular spot.
This is awesome because you can analyze worst case scenario (pessimistic range assessment) vs best case scenario (optimistic range assessment) and narrow down the best play with each specific hand and combination of hands based off your player pool's tendencies.
March 16, 2019 | 10:28 p.m.
In a trackable environment, regulars are going to catch on pretty quickly and start adjusting (I would start pummeling you with 3b from btn and blinds and you are going to make adjustments too and either tighten up or start opening bigger). This is why these strategies keep changing over time. In 2005, you would get lambasted in the forums if we were playing in 2005 like we are now in present day (small bet sizes, three barrel bluffing, etc. etc. just did not happen back then).
Against fish, they really aren't going to adjust. They are going to play the way the play (bad passive, bad aggressive and that's about it). So against bad passive, they will be check/folding vs either size really and check/raising their good stuff. Win/win for us, all of our decisions are fairly easy. Against bad aggressive, we check more value on the flop OOP and we can take a bunch of free cards when we are in marginal spots. We can bluff turns when he probes.
Best way to test this is to play a decent sample with 25% pot cbets and play a decent sample at 33% cbet and compare the important things like: how often am I getting check/raised? is my post flop c bet size getting me called lighter pre and am I getting played back at more? is there a substantial difference in my winrate? Honestly, if the strategy works for you, by all means, use it. The whole point here is to lose the absolute least and win the absolute most. Pots can be built postflop regardless of PF sizing. I have experimented with 2x opens from all position and it didn't have much impact on my winrate. Basically I will win less bb overall, since pots will be smaller, with my big hands and I will loose substantially less over time since I only lose 2x vs 3x when I have to fold to further preflop aggression.
In a call happy environment, you are really going to have to start studying turn spots and start winning more often both IP and OOP vs. the loose BS calls they will make.
Turns are where I spend the majority of my time studying.
March 16, 2019 | 9:18 p.m.
The way I understand it is this: Pokersnowie is like constantly playing against itself so it develops a strategy against itself. This isn't GTO play however. Snowie has some OK features and can probably help pinpoint some things. It's preflop ranges are typically tighter than what is "standard" but it is not a huge issue.
I have PIO and have toyed around with GTO+. If you are going to invest is one or the other, I would highly recommend a solver over Snowie. If you start to crush, and have disposable income, Snowie can be a decent tool to use when you play against it. You can play against it, stop at a decision point, examine it in depth and quiz yourself before you make the move. Open up like equilab or flopzilla and start entering your range for different moves and you will start to improve when you compare your "thought process" ranges/plays to the one Snowie recommends. This is its biggest attribute IMO. I tried analyzing my hands as a "scenario" and it is kind of a pain in the arse.
March 16, 2019 | 8:56 p.m.
3x should be fine IP here. If it was CO vs. BTN, you can even go a touch smaller without him/her adjusting their range accordingly.
I agree QJs is pretty low in my range here. The way I have balanced this is that before my session starts, I either pick one or two of the suits (ex. spades for thin spots and Hearts for higher equity, but still marginal, spots) and use that to randomize. In spots where raising is thinnest, I just only will make the raise when I have spade/spade combos and if I have a higher equity edge, I will raise spades and heart combos.
I can get behind calling OTB vs CO, maybe even MP here some percentage of the time. I do it OTB because I want to eliminate one of the potential squeezers.
I got to be honest, I play in anonymous player pool, so I have to base decisions off of population studies and own ranges. With specific stats, this hand could probably be played any number of ways.
March 16, 2019 | 8:47 p.m.
Don't mind flop at all. You will ultimately have more "nutted" combos here range vs range. Hand vs. range, I like this bet on flop (over card, BDSD, BDFD). I think this combo of A6 should be checked when turn is non club. Bet A6dd and this combo when that turn is 5c or 9c. Basically looking to catch up to his value as cheaply as possible. It's a disaster to have to bet/fold turn here.
March 16, 2019 | 8:38 p.m.
Check turn is the play I do believe.
As played, on river, think you have to fold it. You beat next to zero hands in his value betting range and there are so very few "natural" bluffs on this board. Fish, in general, aren't going to sift through their range to find bluffs here so this will value so often. I just can't see something like KT c/c, c/r then lead this river often enough to make me want to call this.
Had you checked turn, you get the free shot to catch up against Qx and can bluff catch more rivers (not many though). Especially against this stack size.
March 16, 2019 | 8:29 p.m.
I don't know, I kind of like dumping this combo pre facing MP open. Calling sucks and I would 3 bet wider with stuff that can out flop his calling range better (A5s-A2). I think my weakest Q to 3b here is KQs. As a side note, I prefer to play 3b/fold mostly, except certain BTN spots and the BB.
As played, you don't need to 3b so big. 3x is fine. I would make it $1.50 or so.
Check flop. Betting 3 way is dangerous when sandwiched between someone who can be trapping and a BTN who is still left to act.
March 16, 2019 | 3:07 p.m.
If he is a true 3% guy, then his range is going to be TT+, all AK and AQs maybe. That's 45 combos. Of those 45 combos, 20 of them (or about 45% of his range) are AK and AQ. The remaining 25 are overpairs. You beat 6 of them, split with 1 of them and are crushed by 18 of them. If you jam flop, he folds about 45% of the time (assuming he doesn't bet/call AK or AQ) and he calls the other 55% of the time. You are a 70/30 dog vs. his calling range (assuming the above range). Jamming will clearly be -EV. Again, this assumes he is a true 3% 3 bettor from BB vs MP and he is completely linear. If his range is wider, this gets very close.
45%($10) + 55%(30%$33) - 55%(70%$33)=
($4.50 + $5.45) - $12.71 = ($9.95 - $12.71) = -$2.76
Getting it in on the flop is not good here. QQ+ would be the threshold.
His C bet in 3b pots is not unreasonable. He could potentially be checking a lot of his overpairs and betting his AK, AQ on the flop. If this is the case call flop and just call down.
After 3000+ hands, his 3 bet stat is probably going to be a pretty solid read (especially since you open from MP). I am not opposed to folding JJ preflop if you are confident in your read/stats. I think my approach vs this guy in this spot would be to mostly 4b or fold (especially with this stack depth). I would be 4 betting QQ+, and MAYBE calling some AK and folding most everything else. AK and JJ have close to same equity vs. his range, but AK has better board coverage and also will cooler QQ and KK some of the time.
March 16, 2019 | 2:53 p.m.
Check back flop. His HJ 3b calling range is all over this board. He has AQs-ATs, KQs-KTs, AQo, JJ, TT, JTs. You are ahead of a few of those combos but not enough to make me want to bet here. As played, just bet/fold it and move on.
March 15, 2019 | 6:05 p.m.
With $30.23 behind we don't have much room to maneuver. Bet/folding can't be right, 1/2 pot leaves $7.00 behind, 1/3 pot is awkward too. Seems like Jam or Check is only option here. He probably has 8-10 decent TP combos you beat. He has maybe 12-15 combos that beat you and he has some folds if he plays some FD's passively here. I think you can just rip it in probably. Being that he is a decent player (via your description), I expect to see some traps here, but overall I think you can shove.