HawksWin

Agree with both Brokenstars and RaoulFlush on this.

To be honest, I think preflop is debatable with A9s against a broken stack. If you are somehow mixing it as a 3b/fold, its fine.

Post flop seems fine. The A9s with the BDFD are going to be the best bets here on the flop. I would mostly check A9cc and mostly bet the other 3 combos of A9s.

Seems fine.

I think it is fine TBH.

I think solver would always rip this due to them having some AQ/KQ/QT which is going to offset the times you get hit with the cooler. Checking back is certainly high EV but I think the combination of bad calls + the folds will far outweigh the times they are nutted, thus the EV of jam will be higher than the check back.

It's actually a 3b vs and ISO. MP limps and here isolates.

I think charts would say "no way" to a fold preflop, I think data will tell us that this is the worst of the offsuit combos we want to continue with here. Remember, you close the action and the price is just so good after MP limp/folds. Against a tight 5% SB linear range here, AQo has upwards of 40% equity but, AQo only flops the best hand @ 30% of the time. As we slide it out to 8%, AQo flops so well against the wider range that there is no way we can fold pre.

Also, this is a simple and massively profitable call down on all rivers besides the T, K or club. In short, we are calling a ton of rivers so we can rely on texture data and know for a fact that the T river is really bad.

The alternative to what went on in this hand is to isolate larger. I think I always prefer a large ISO vs 4x or smaller. I would have gone to 5 or 6bb. As we do this, we can narrow our range even more and hands like AQo can be mucked pre more often when facing resistance. I like the bigger iso size with my value hands since the pools plays like shit in lines like this. I like the bigger size with my bluffs, since it becomes simple to just respect further aggression and fold confidently and avoid the domination nightmares we get into vs ranges that are lacking bluffs (both a limp re-raising MP and /or a SB 3b).

Depends a lot on MP stats (both pool and individual). For instance, my pool limps MP @ 8.5% of the time. With AA, they have raised first in from MP 3787 times and limped it 646 times. 646/4433 = 14.7%. There are 6 possible combos of AA, they are essentially limping 1 time in 6. They limp AKo 10% of the time. They limp suited aces. They limp pairs. They limp connectors.

You call see below what the MP ranges look like in my pool. The green grid is their RFI range and the blue grid is the limp range. The lighter color the boxes, the more often that hand is in the Limp range.

iohenkies In the second spot (same sizings, stacks, etc as the 1st set of sims) I used a board of 874r. This board is really bad for MP vs BB. You will see, the sim on the left is betting only 41% of the time. I locked the one on the right to range bet that board (very extreme deviation). At first glance, the EV's still look close but they really aren't. We lose .18 of a bb when we choose to range bet. .18bb/hand is 18bb/100. That is a ton when we consider the biggest crushers who win at 10bb to 15bbb/100 are winning .10 to .15 bb per hand. Looks small but it is a big deal.

The bigger part of using a range bet strategy on this texture is we get to the turn with 240 combos. In the GTO sim, we get there with 100 combos. How do we play the turn with the 240 combo range?

Look at the below sims side by side (left is GTO and right is forced range bet). For example, look at A8s. In the GTO sim, the EV of checking A5s is 2.626 and the EV of betting it is 2.626. In the range bet sim, the EV of checking A5s is 2.639 and the EV of betting it is 2.312, again, pretty significant difference.

iohenkies I am going to run two spots and show you what a range bet looks like side by side with a GTO c betting frequency. Board is K96r. The sim on the left is the GTO frequency (86% or so). The sim on the right is locked for a range bet. You can see, that the EV of betting the entirity of your range is essentially the same as the sim on the right. With the sim on the right, there is no thinking, it is a good board for MP vs BB so just bet everything and go from there. Better than spending time on deciding what combos we are putting into our checking range.

Here is spot #1 Below.

This really all depends on your range construction here. What does it look like IP as caller? Do you have some AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK in your call range pre? The more of this you have, the less this becomes a call. If your call range is void of the big pairs/AK, this gets more pushed into the call range. Of course, this is theory or perfect play vs perfect play.

If you look at the two sims (everyone's ranges are going to be different). I am assuming they are fairly tight with their 3b range and you are fairly tight and reasonable with your range).

With the sim on the left, IP has zero combos of AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK and the sim on the right, IP has 20% of all of them. Everything else is exactly the same in both sims.

Notice the purple squares, the solver is jamming these hands. The Ax region is a fairly rare turn bet, but when solver bets something like A3s, it follows though on the river. Is this really happening? Are these pools really jamming KQ here? Q9? T9? KJ?

Below is what it looks like when SB executes the barrel. I did not node lock these sims. You will notice on the left, the call is worth about 3bb. On the right, the call is losing.

I can't think of any worse river than the Ten. King rivers suck too, but not as bad as the T. Clubs are bad too. Rest of them are pretty darn good for us. I would simplify to folding to jam on T/K/club rivers and calling the rest. I think you will do just fine with the approach.

Solid Stuff Peter Clarke

One question, what does the "weak" portion of your squeeze range look like in the early part of the video when he squeezes KTo? It was around the 8 minute mark. I don't know hero's color scheme but green is usually used for fish. Do you even have a bluffing range here? And if so, what would you pick and why?

Like it!!!!! Good approach SoundSpeed

I'm a generous guy :)

What does he call 4 bets with? JTx boards are really bad for QQ+. I expect to see at least 1 combo of AA/some KK/all JJ/all TT continued here. KQs gets there on the turn (best draw to continue, aside from FD's). I would take the gift and check back turn since we catch up vs a bunch of his nutted hands.

This flop just feels like a check. It is hard to imagine a "REG" playing MP like this. What does he call with when not closing action preflop? I would, however, bet a 754tt flop since he will never really have a straight on 754tt. They have connectors here (good or bad) which makes this board extremely bad.

I do one of two things here:

1) Jam, since I am likely too aggressive, but I like it that way. I look at it as QQ 4b sometimes and sometimes calls pre and he most certainly has TT. I think both call. I don't want to show down with something like A8s/87s that turned a draw+pair.

2) Open the note box as I think about what to do, check back and note the insight into what is EP 3b calling range is (no 4b TT, so what does it mean when he 4 bets this dynamic?). Did not check raise fairly strong overpair on the flop. What does his XR look like now that we know this? He check/call turn vs 2/3 pot against a range (your range) that has a minimum of 24 dominating combos in it (JJ+, could have 99/88 here too).

What about A8/65s/54s? Volatile move with some strong turned A? Ax with flush draw?

He can't have A5s.

If you faced a jam vs your turn XR into 2 players, are you calling turn jam? If you are calling turn, I can't see folding to this brick river. Maybe could size down river if our read is that he is so tight post flop that he only does this with 88.

A good thing to do is to decide before betting what we are doing vs raise before we a) decide to execute the bet and b) what sizing we choose. If I somehow decided to bet/fold vs jam on river, I would go smaller IMO. I agree he looks super strong but he likely only has 88 that dominates you, there are combos out there that you dominate also. K5s or worse (aside from the 65/54 combos) seems very unlikely with the preflop action.

Summed up quite well by @lIlCitanul.

Also, of great importance, is to learn how to counter the range bet strategy (either by expanding your XR range on the flop or check/calling more flops and attacking river with tons of probes when they c bet the flop and check back the turn).

As, played line seems fine. RaoulFlush summed it up nicely.

I think in this rake trap, I prefer to simply fold KQo preflop. Or, at most, I would randomize it to 3 out of 12 offsuit combos or roll a 1 to 25 or a 76 to 100. In general, these pools RFI a few points lower than GTO grids. I try to keep my 3b range vs UTG around 4.5% and that eliminates KQo from my range. I would stick to JJ+, AQ+ and like KQs. I am only having success of 3b vs UTG of 27% and my pool calls so much AK/AQ here vs 3b that I like avoiding too many spots where I am dominated with so many top pair combos.

If I were you, I would note this guy in PT4 or HM with what he is calling 4 bets with and use this info against him. Also note what he continues with vs bigger than 1/2 pot bet.

Good stuff Tyler Forrester

I find myself doing explorations like this and I find it quite helpful.

Asking your opinion, but more often than not, when we go into bad stretches, we often fun poorly with the hands that make us the most money. If I have a losing month/stretch, the first thing I usually go to is QQ+ and all AK. I then compare the bad stretch to historical data and often I find that I am running bad with these hands. I also like to go a step further and keep track of my historical data vs what the pools aggregate WR with QQ+ and AK and then compart it to how I am running in the bad stretch.

What ends up happening is, say, the historical data shows a winrate of 8bb/hand or 800bb/100 with QQ+ and AK. I then notice that I am running at 5.4bb/hand or 540bb/100 with the same range. It is most likely short run noise and not worth much attention. It is usually AK running into QQ+ or running bad against pairs/AQ/etc. Or several instances of KK vs AA. It all balances out in the end and if you run poorly then you are also going to have stretches where you run hotter than normal.

Fells like investigating like this for a few hours will save countless hours dwelling over bad variance with the top of our PR range.

Again, good stuff and always look forward to your videos like this.

So far ok.

Up like 16 to 17 buy ins this month over about 19,000 hands thus far. I think it's about 9bb/100 or so.

Happy that non-showdown (redline) is winning.

Last two nights have been a s**t show so I am hoping for a less frustrating night tonight.

Make sure you are studying while you are away from the tables.

Hang in there and play through it. Sessions like this are very common and will happen many times. Just have to shake it off. Tomorrow is another day.

Yep, agree with RaoulFlush here. We are basically breakeven vs KK+ and AK. Rake plays a part here. I think we need to add a few points to our equity needs vs the odds offered. Even adding one combo of JJ (so a range of KK+/AK/JsJh) would get us to 42% equity which is probably a better number due to rake implications.

I imagine $16NL is getting hit for 9 to 10bb/100 in rake. That means the house is pulling $1.50+ out of this @ $34.00 pot. There is no way we can ignore the rake in deciding on calls.

How big is the sample?

What do you think the SB's perception of you is? Does he have 1000 hands on you and thinks you are a nit?

Also, how did you decide upon the cold 4 bet sizing? You are OOP where you are cold 4 betting. I want to be somewhere closer to $4.25 to $4.60 in sizing.

I am guessing the increase in volume in going to result in a lower bb/100. Could be wrong. I know my quality of play decreased when I went more than 4 tables (regular speed).

Standard deviation is going to depend on playing style IMO. Lifetime I am just over 90bb/100 in SD but most sessions are over 100bb/100 now (adopted a breakeven/winning non showdown style).

How are things going for you Polyneikos?

Has your downswing turned around?

I think multi-tabling will have an effect on your overall win rate (will typically be lower bb/100 as you add more tables, but you pick up $$$$ overall due to the volume), but I don't think it will change much in the calculator.

Would just experiment with different win rates (5bb/100, 6bb/100, 3bb/100) and standard deviations and also different sample sizes.

The risk of ruin will fluctuate based on several factors but mostly the overall win rate and the standard deviation that you input.

Preflop is close. QTs is at the bottom of my 3b range pre SB vs CO 3bb open. That said, I have zero problem with the 3b.

I think your line is ok here but I would reluctantly fold river.

He has nut advantage here (He likely has all of the sets and you only really have TT). You do, however, have AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/ATs/KTs. This is a healthy value range and you are low on FD's and SD's (low on bluffs).

I do think this spot can be played as a check on the flop (played as a check/call or you can delay c bet vs a check back by him) with combos like QTs/JTs. I am more likely to check this board over a board such as T65 two tone.

Feels like a clear bet/bet/jam spot.

On a side note, I am noticing some sizing inconsistencies preflop. In this hand, you are 3 betting 4.5x the open (2bb open to 9bb from SB). In the QTs hand, you 3 bet to under 4x vs a CO open (3bb open to 11bb from SB). I get it, positions are different, etc. but guys paying attention are going to pick up on this. I would recommend you simplify and go 3x in position and 4x out of position.

Mix of 50 and 100NL on Ignition (USA Facing Site). Regular speed tables, no Zone (Zoom).

When I start to feel my game slipping or feel mental issues creeping in, I just shut down the games and walk away for awhile.

Also, make sure you have plenty of bankroll so that losing a few buy in's or having a few bad days is not a big deal.

Just last night, I dumped 7 buy ins and was 1 buy in above EV. No big deal.

Hand #4 I don't see any need to jam preflop. Pot is quite small.

Hand #5 100% spew, AQo sucks\

Hand #6 Feels spewy, especially Mulitway and with being deep with Romanov.

Hand #2 Preflop feels too big but it's not a disaster. He is raising small vs what amounts to a very strong range (your range should be seen as strong here). He is raising a c bet that is greater than 1/2 pot. What do you think his bluffs are and how does your hand interact with his bluffs?
Hand #2 Would simply call turn here. We risk too much for the reward with that huge Turn raise. Flush draw has closed, board had paired. I would call turn and play a river.