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JWPapi

4 points

KJs is definitely good enough to squeeze here and save to shove to with 20 bb. Anyhow i think raise to 5x/fold pre is fine and shove any draw or pair on the flop.

KJs has a nice playability, but with 20BB Deepness the value of making straights and flushes is not as big as on deeper stacks. The value of making a good pair is the same tho.

As played i fold to flop because of the sizing would it be like 15k i just jam it in. If he makes it 15k and SB calls im folding too

March 3, 2017 | 3:24 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on Micro MTT study group

We already have an active group:

https://join.skype.com/vwfX6h3NdyeV

March 3, 2017 | 3:19 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on 1 1/2 Interesting spots

Can we somehow increase the quality of the pictures tho?

March 3, 2017 | 2:46 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on 1 1/2 Interesting spots

Second Hand.

Pre:

Big Raise is good. Take care you raise all your hands like that.

Flop:
Yes as you said. The Board is wet. I bet at 2/3 pot so i can jam turn easy

Turn:
This card is tricky, but I still think we can easily shove here. There are a lot of 2 pairs, worse sets. And Top pair +Draws out that will pay. I mean there is just 1 JTs combo left. I dont see him openlimping worse suited hands that often. KQs is a open, so the flush is normally not that of a problem. I see small pockets limping here often, so 66 is probably the combo that beats you most, but for the 6 combos of 66 there are 3 77 combos 3 88 combos and also 3 99 combos. KJs is also a common limping hand, but we still have equity left to win the hand.

Checking out in equilab it doesnt seem so shine. Maybe we can expoitable even give up the turn card.

Its really hard to decide for me here. Open for new opinions.

March 3, 2017 | 2:46 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on 1 1/2 Interesting spots

Hand 1:

Obviously we dont know exactly what hand he has, but we can estimate a range. And thats what im doing now.

I took his opening range from a standart preflop chart

22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo

Now in general I assume he has something that is either scared of the Flushdraw or a big draw it self. You block the best draws, so we can exclude a lot from his range. I find this spot interesting and I think I would def call ingame.

Here comes my analysis.

So with 66% its a pretty clear call. If you think my assumptions of his range are wrong, please come up with an other assumption and check on equilab your equity against it. Im looking forward to see some opinions here.

March 3, 2017 | 2:11 p.m.

We already have a big group with 20 active members:

https://join.skype.com/lVchEAdHXSaW

Feb. 27, 2017 | 11:08 a.m.

At the TT hand i think a reg definitely calls all 3x 4x and also some Ax ,obv Flushdraws and also some Backdoorflushdraws, maybe like Q5 with some good cards too raise or donk the turn. This makes a bet mandatory in my opinio. If I now that a player is checking behind TT here we can easily raise any2 on the flop. I mean Hero is Chipleader and can open reallly wide Button -3, like all Ax Kxs, all PP, Suited Connectors, suited Gap Connectors and any Broadway cards. Its def. profitable on these lower stakes final tables. So the BB is the biggest opponent for the Cl, because he can somehow get a bit cheaper showdown on certain boards and dodge the ICM pressure a bit. So to counter the wide opening range of CL he can call a bit wider. On this board TT is like really at top of Heros range. Phew i really think not betting TT here is a big leak. I mean you will even get more value from 3x and 4x if you barrel twice. With checking back you turn your hand face up. 55-TT. BB will on a FT never start to bluff like crazy. No offense against hero but I think its really a clear bet and cbehind isnt achieving anything.

Feb. 20, 2017 | 2:17 p.m.

I just want to add an argument for calling the KQ hand in the end. Implied Odds, if we as you did assume that his raise is strong and AT,TT,22 or 44, well get the stacks in on a J Board.

But i made the math and we call 1.7k for 15,3k pot which is about 11,5% and more than 8%, so its not even an implied odds call.

Feb. 15, 2017 | 2:18 a.m.

Post | JWPapi posted in Chatter: I send Stars for BTC

I hope this is not against the rules, but I have Stars Money and want to buy BTC for that, so if anyone wants to buy Stars Money with BTC we can swap. First we would change IDs etc and do it in small amounts so everything is safe. I would pay 2% fee on top. So you basically can buy 102 Stars Money for 100 Dollar in BTC.

I would understand if this is against the rules and Im sorry then just delete my post. But maybe this is interesting for someone.

Feb. 11, 2017 | 4:27 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on Skype group

Here is a link with which you can join.

Dec. 10, 2016 | 3:56 p.m.

Would you mind uploading the Slide with the Questions

Dec. 9, 2016 | 2:29 p.m.

Im sorry. Just misread. I think the hand is pretty well played. If you bet 40 or 45% is just not that important.

Oct. 27, 2016 | 11:34 a.m.

Phew.. Dont like the fold tbh. Which Value hands isnt he betting on the turn? Imo he would bet almost all better hands on the turn.

Oct. 26, 2016 | 8:41 p.m.

I think till turn everything is good. River c/c is best. And yeah like river checkraise is def to strong to call here. No matter how awkward his line ist

Oct. 26, 2016 | 6:38 p.m.

You should iso pre higher. I like 3x here, since he almost always has a worse hand than you have. I also bet the flop higher as played. And from turn on get it in anyhow. As played I call too obv.

Oct. 26, 2016 | 6:34 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on Study group

Just click on the link and join

Oct. 26, 2016 | 6:26 p.m.

We have A Low Stakes MTT/SNG Group with already 35 members. Maybe you want to feature our group for new low stakes members coming from Twitch?

Oct. 26, 2016 | 6:26 p.m.

If you are in the best 10 % based on sharkscope rating, that does not mean you are having edge on 90% on the field, since its result based, but like you are one of the top 10% roi wise, so the point you made is already included. I hope you get what im saying, ppl that have the ability your talking about will already have a higher scope rating..

Oct. 22, 2016 | 5:08 p.m.

Probably its for the same reasons I don't like the 3barrel. The board is very dry and there is not so much value in betting even on second barrel.

Oct. 20, 2016 | 11:34 a.m.

mirin your PIO Solver. Is it worth to buy it?

Oct. 20, 2016 | 11:32 a.m.

So on Sharkscope you can find out the average Skill Level for a Tourney, and I was wondering how good you have to be to be a winning player on a given field.

So if the avg skill level of the players is 70. You probably wont make money on if you are just 72. I tried to find a way to determine how much better than the average player you have to be. Therefore I had to do some discussable assumptions:

Assumptions

-- You have to be one of the best 10% of players to profit on a tournament
-- The skill level is distributed normal (If you draw a random player you have the same probability hes 5 levels lower than average as higher than the average)
-- I assume that the range is distributed in between a range thats determined by the lower difference to either 50 or 99. So with 70 the difference to 50 is 20 and to 99 its 29. So I assume the 3 deviation range is from 50-90.

That are the best assumption I could made. Im happy if someone can make better one.

So with that figures i just divide the range limit by 3 and have a standard deviation. (20/3 = 6.6666..7). If I now want to find the Skill Level to be one of the TOP 10% players you just calc AVG Skill Level + 1.281552 * Standard Deviation (yeah that's the value inside which 80% of all values in a normal distribution are). And we would end up with 78,54 here.

I also made a small jsfiddle so you just have to type in the avg skill to calculate the required skill.

https://jsfiddle.net/d4zejsxw/1/

How to improve the formula

So to make the formula more accurate the most important steps would be

a) Gather Information about the standard deviation of skill levels in a tourney.

The only way to do it currenty, would just like click either all players of one or more tourneys and gather data points paired with the avg skill of the tourney or if possible click random players and gather data points. Its an enormous task Im currently not willing to do lawl. Maybe a crawler could do this or I talk to Sharkscope, maybe they can build a new feature or stuff.

b)Determine the % of winning players in a tourney

To determine this exactly you would probably need even more data than for a). I thought maybe a good solution would be to find the lowest rank player on officialpokerrankings that is still a profitable player. And just check his percentage. That would be a pretty educated guess. Maybe some more experienced player can guess better than 10% here. It should also be different for different structures. Since more edge is possible with bigger stacks and more time.

Further information

-- be aware that tourneys decrease in average skill the longer they run. Mostly regs reg before a tourney start. So if you check a not yet started tourney on Sharkscope, better take the same tourney from yesterday.
-- different times different skill levels. In the evening the fields are a bit tougher than in the night and in the morning.

Im happy over every point you find to critizise. See this just as a first sketch.

cheers
jwpapiii

Oct. 20, 2016 | 9:35 a.m.

Oct. 19, 2016 | 10:06 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on Skype group

https://join.skype.com/ds7xAtFul7rc

We have a Low Stakes MTT/SNG Group if any of you guys want to join.

Oct. 19, 2016 | 9:49 p.m.

I think it should be a profitable shove. Cutoff can 3b pretty wide here. You could ran that in HRC or Icmizer and check out what would be Nash. But im pretty jure AQs should just about made it in here, if there are not some bubble factors.

Oct. 19, 2016 | 9:45 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on Call Shove Chart

There are no such charts, since you would need a different range for every position of the pusher and for his stack sizes, and then for your position and all the stack sizes. Ranges here differ are lot. You have to learn to estimate the calls. If not sure mark the hands in the session and calc it later in ICMIZER or HRC

Oct. 19, 2016 | 9:25 p.m.

Dont know which charts you use, but there are nash charts for pushfold that are accurate. Google for Jennifear Charts. At the Bubble you Push a bit wider against ppl who you cover and call a bit less against ppl who cover you, but not like too drastic. Its hard to calculate bubble spots. I know that ICMIZER can do this for up to some tables, but its way more important for your calling ranges than for your push ranges. Some ppl argue that you can push wider as nash, since the people are calling less than they should, but im not supporting this , because first you will learn wrong gameplay which will make moving up harder for you later. Second even on lower stakes ppl are not calling so much less than they should. Third If you call less, youll also get less value if called. Also the push ranges even with known calling ranges are not that much wider that most ppl awesome.

tldr;: Learning Nash Push/Fold Ranges is the first step to become a successfull MTT Player. There is no need to differ from it(imho).

Oct. 19, 2016 | 9:21 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on $11 Hot PS - easy call?

This! Especially if you dont know him. You can either 3b/f AQ here or just flat. But 3b/c is wrong for sure, i dont even think its a Nash Shove.

Oct. 19, 2016 | 9:09 p.m.

I dont think check/call is that good against random population on the lower stakes, since they dont bet so wide. You dont have to check/fold here. I think bet flop and almost any turn works good on the lower stakes. Dunno if that would be too wide of a cbetting range. I would bet bigger though.

Oct. 19, 2016 | 9:06 p.m.

I think its not a good spot, since many of his possible busted draws are blocked by your hand. There are probably still some more combos left than hands he call the shove with, but you have to discount his flushdraws a bit, because he not always calls him in the SB. I think there is also a good chance that he calls you down with TT or JJ here. So we might end with with a 50/50 spot even without disounting. Im pretty sure you give up the board here.

Oct. 19, 2016 | 8:57 p.m.

Comment | JWPapi commented on Hand Reading (part 2)

I think in the Last Hand you forgot to include your Hand to Dead cards, which would lead to an even more viable riverbluff.

Oct. 17, 2016 | 11:53 p.m.

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