Really like this answer from belrio.
Totally agree that with what he said. They will have a wide range on the turn and probably will play a "bet the good stuff" or polarized strategy on the turn.
So if they check you can apply very agressive strategies (that´s what solvers are doing) as they probably at best have bluff catchers.
If you let solvers do their thing they just go overbet overbet on turn river if he never checks his nutted hands.
Sure you can´t do this everytime since villain´s gonna notice but you can apply the basic principle of playing agressivly with the hands you choose to do so.
So yeah, in reality it makes your life easier since you don´t have to defend so much. Also they probably sometimes check the flop and if you can figure out what they check there you can take advantage of that too.
Most of the time people check second pair/ third pair typish hands.
March 24, 2019 | 5:03 a.m.
Really in trouble coming up with an answer.
I won´t justify the number but I don´t know how to come up with an answer right now.
I guess everything in the area of the loss trough a pure strategy is totally fine and significantly more probably not.
March 24, 2019 | 2:58 a.m.
AQo no matter the combo is a pure call in the simualation I did.
BTN: Dark meaning 50% freq.
BB: Dark meaning 10% freq.
Ranges might not be what is used but probably will do the job for what we are trying to figure out.
99, 88 100% call seems weird but villain was very nitty with his 3b freqs anyway. It´s a mistake I did when creating the sim but it shouldn´t matter too much I guess.
Given the action on the flop and the 6c as a specific turn club and BB following up with a small bet (I used 33%), the BTN´s optimal strategy looks like this:
As we can see AQ gets called 100%.
The EV difference between raising and calling is not negligible:
I nodelocked BTN strategy a bit on the turn: Raising his strong Q on the turn:
I haven´t looked deeper into how the BB can exactly play vs this but what I spotted is that BB betting freq. on river goes up on the river if you just call turn (thinner value bets and more bluffs).
What´s the most interesting one is that BB now starts to 3b you a ton once you raise:
Left is optimal // right is nodelocked
Hm it´s tough to see details:
Optimal 7.51%r // 43%c // 49.5%f
Nodelocked: 29.0%r // 19.0%c // 51.9%f
March 24, 2019 | 2:49 a.m.
Could you do a sim SB vs BB and nodelock SB to not being able to 4b? (100BB deep)
What is the EV difference? Could it be a vslid strategy?
Also does postflop play change in suchbways that unexperienced humans play poorly vs that strategy?
March 22, 2019 | 10:14 a.m.
On the other hand you do realize more equity with your entire calling range because you can´t get pushed around too easily.
Also there are implied odds if we dominate villain.
KK vs AQo on Q 3 2 rainbow.
If his bluffs semi hit they can get into really difficult spots if they don´t flop nutted.
Okay, but some people play a check range strategy OOP and while it loses EV it´s still a fine strategy and is used commonly. I guess this is close to removing an entire option (betting).
March 21, 2019 | 11:31 a.m.
I can see your point.
But the same goes for betting 1/3 of the pot with your entire range if you have an EV advantage. You lose EV but you simplify your strategy.
Aditionally, vs poor defending opponents (humans) you can gain EV.
Maybe the same can be said for playing wo a 4b range 100 BB deep.
Also since people never played vs such an opponent I can see that people play extremely poorly against it, while everyone knows how to play vs 4b (at least the basics). There seems to be little edge you can have in 4b pots honestly.
In this game you describe player B has no offensive option. In not 4betting you still have offensive options postflop.
I appreciate your comment
March 21, 2019 | 10:59 a.m.
Actually I don´t mind the a min raise typish hand because you tend to call with T9s against AA then which is generally good for him.
However if a 50NL nit calls UTG, flop comes 9 6 T, I bet almost pot and get fkn pot raised I´d snap fold my AA so quickly you wouldn´t even be able to watch.
March 21, 2019 | 9:49 a.m.
Could some pro enlighten me on why we need to play a 4b range 6max 100BB deep.
Can somebody do a preflop simulation and nodelock, for example SB vs BB and SB nodelocked to only 3b.
What is the EV difference? How does postlfop play look like?
I don´t have access to a preflop solver.
I´d like to link a theard because I don´t want to write an essay explaining my problem:
Would be very helpful to me.
March 19, 2019 | 11:38 p.m.
Same can be said the other way round.
You don't lose your stack if you hold AK and villain has AA.
So yeah: A huge amount of loses come from this situation too.
If it is AA vs KK you still probably play a huge pot on most boards.
March 19, 2019 | 8:26 p.m.
This might actually be a decent strstegy tho I would trap at a higher frequency probably. But if we randomize how we continue and don't narrow our range too much that might actually be very good!!
And to make it random you could just use a rng and just set certain frequencies for a session.
Pretty cool but I am still interested in how much Value we'd actually lose vs a perfect opponent and vs humans by pure calling.
Because I can see it being +EV vs opponents that are now out of their comfort zone.
March 19, 2019 | 2:50 p.m.
I don´t think there is one preflop solution.
I don´t have a preflop solver sadly.
So I can´t comment on that.
However I don´t see a down side to this strategy really. And we can assume that humans will play very poorly against it since noone basically has studied this / encounters people with this strategy.
I just feel like people will punt so hard vs this strategy but I will see. Will start trying this out a bit.
Also I believe that minraises are extremely powerful.
Prove me wrong. kappa
All I know is that I hate these situation when you sit in the CO get 3B and you call a capped range.
Same for Button vs SB but at least you have position.
March 19, 2019 | 2:06 p.m.
I mean if you chose to be preflop warrior in somewhat large pools with erratic players then do as you please.
I prefer to play postflop vs nits, since everyone is worse than you postflop if you believe you have an edge.
March 19, 2019 | 1:58 p.m.
But how much EV you lose by having a weak calling range and playing fit or fold and being dominated sometimes? Calling 8bb with your 77, damn didn´t hit. Fold. Thats -800BB/100 hands. So if this scenario happens 100 times you just have lost 8 Buyins. Now you hit your set. Wow. Any decent player won´t pay you off anyway because you are a nit and then there is a great chance he does not have a premium hand but AQ, AJ, 98 and all this stuff and you don´t even get paid a dollar.
Other than that you will always fold tho since he has the huge advantage of an uncapped range and can bluff you off most hands on many boards.
Of course you can chose to call down too. GL mate, feels nice to sit there hoping your opponent bluffs especially on lower limits.
Once in year thats happening if we are completely honest here.
How many implied odds do you miss out on if he hits his Q with his AQ on 223 and we sit there with KK.
Also many people won´t be used to playing vs this but everyone knows to fold AQo vs a 4bet.
Also you want to have edge on opponents and thats harder to have preflop while everyone basically sucks postflop in lower limits.
March 19, 2019 | 1:48 p.m.
Good strategy vs opponents with bad 4bet freqs, opponents that overcall/have bad calling ranges, opponents that overfold.
Simplifies game tree. --> less to study
Exceptions can be made when weaker players are behind/ in the blinds.
You don't pay rake if you don't see a flop.
You have an uncapped range.
Overall decent strategy in my opinion. Don't see any crucial negative points.
March 19, 2019 | 1:37 p.m.
Yeah man I don't know.
What your stats basically show is that your premiums make more money than your non premium hands :D
I am thinking more in an overall strategy vs somewhat competent opponents. Not the kind of people that call 4bets with KTo or 5bet shove A5s in the micros :D
Vs them I'd 4b too but as an exploit when I deviate from an overall strstegy.
March 19, 2019 | 1:06 p.m.
In some of the reply to Belrio you mentioned this "But they won´t make a mistake with their AJ, AQ, 76s, 89s, T9s, JQo, KJs, 55 etc. etc. if you 4bet and they fold ". How can this happens if you 4bet bluff with A2s-A5s?. V would make mistake folding AJ,AQ, pocket pairs right?
Yes. But it´s high variance and very hard to do correctly if you don´t know villain´s 3b range. And generally people 3b very differently.
Point stands that there is no "outplay" to be made and no edges to have. Also the mistake by folding preflop is much much smaller than the mistakes they can make postflop.
In your example you mentioned AK vs AQ CO vs BU and you decided to flat the 3bet. Then what would you do if he auto cbet 1/2 pot on the flop that you completely miss? If you know exactly that he's 3betting you with AQ here, then flatting AK would probably be the best option if you know that he'd fold to a 4bet. But that's not the case, you're playing vs his range with your range, not your AK vs his AQ
You collect information over multiple streets, play your range well and make exploitative assumptions. This is easier done postflop than preflop.
I still need to point out that I have nothing against a 4bet strategy.
The point is why a only call/fold to 3b strategy is not used in todays games.
March 19, 2019 | 11:20 a.m.
By the way I also don´t buy this min raise etc. is terrible thing.
I believe it to be quiet good. People defend stupid ranges against it and then it comes to what Elite coach Francesco Lacriola calls "The compounding effect"
Maybe I just need to try this stuff out and see why it doesn´t work by myself.