David Nicholson

Vegas is just the greatest place EVER! have a blast gl

I think he's still waiting for his glass of water.

Was kinda lol yday, for most of the evening they had more 200/400 CAP running then they did 2/4, 3/6 or 5/10. and it's ALLL shallow.

6-card PLO very popular in live games where I live, been playing it for years I HATTTE it, it's a nits game, regardless of what anyone tells you! Invented by the old live rocks as a game they can just get in vs the weaker players freerolling everytime...

naked AK7789 on 4d 5d 6h is very close to being a chk/fold. zzzzzzzzz 

shove the river and it's a WP hand imo. Like flop play,like turn sizing would defo go all-in OTR now like RBK says I think he'd at least think for a few secs OTT with KT, even if just to enjoy the fact he's made the nuts. KK and K9 seems his most likely hands if he has you beat and i think he would be unable to resist a slow-play most of the time with KK OTF+ as long as he doesn't call within the first 5-6seconds you can sit back and enjoy yourself :)

I think calling the turn x/r is an exploitative play which relays on Jeans bluffing the river with a higher than optimal frequency. His turn raise is likely NOT that polarised so a 3bet could feasibly include some hands that might call, maybe induce another bluff (although seems v unlikely, but at least we gave him the chance) Sauce's range just looks 3***+ once he calls the turn x/r so seems ambitious Jeans is just gonna go ballistic bluffing him there. Best play vs overall range has to be to 3bet the turn. 

defo a bet he's got a lot of 1P+sd type hands/hands like our which he'll fold a lot of the time. He has 42 and 72 (and 44 and 77 but not as often as you) so your range is stronger combined with the fact you got bucket loads of equity vs everything that isn't the stone top of his range. Agree w/RBK can go a lil smaller but I wouldn't go as small as 30/40% would stick around half pot for a live poker game (i'd be betting $180/$200 online) but I think you need to go a little bigger live for same FE (people are a bit more stubborn in live games, imo)

would be value-betting our rivers for sure as well

I mean I can't really do anything but agree with all that :) (as much I'd love to be able to disagree with you I'm sure you're right - SO PRETTY THESE cards :D )

Like you say this hand plays pretty meh vs a 3b/calling range (actually plays way better vs a 5bet) I think you COULD make a case for 4betting vs a high 3B and F3b% but I think if you must make that play then having a suited AK hand is way better. Feels like in game I'd just over-call everytime even though it's a bit naughty :p

I don't think we wanna be overly worried about the odd's were laying him, we're defo going with this hand in one way or another we just want to manipulate his range to play as poorly as possible vs our range. People tend to veer towards this bet size with the super magnum hands (AA5* with diamonds etc) as an exploitative method of getting weaker hands to at least CALL one more bet. 

doing it with naked AA de-polarises your 1/3 pot range which is not a bad thing at all but I think maybe a little unnecessary plus I'd rather have AKJT to 38/call with then naked AA. Think if you do have a pot/call range (which you defo will/should have) then this hand should prolly be in it. Keep 38/call as a more polarised range.

It's gotta be pretty rare not to have at least a marginally comfortable jam on this flop, so I think it's a great exploitation of any reg who 3bets the btn very liberally to c/f the very worst piece of my range on this flop.

Would you go bluff this turn now?

The more I think about this hand the more I think I'm just never folding preflop.

I think it depends a little more on how likely you are to ever wanna b/f here, like adi says betting 1/3 with the best and worst hands and then potting everything else on what kind of a dry flop seems like a fine play to me. I find in general when people use this sizing they are very un-balanced and are usually just at the very very top of their range. If im your opponent in this hand vs generic players at 1/2 i'm expecting to see AA with diamonds most of the time vs a $38 bet. 

In a vacuum I think potting is almost always going to be better.

I don't think flop is that close I think it's a call and reasonably clear, it really sucks though.

I don't think pre-flop is that bad at all, cleans up your equity, has some immediate fold equity (the 3bettor certainly folds some % of the time) and you'll also have very deceptive range OTF, your oppo willl prolly c/f flops like A22, 6JJ (which will be v bad folds vs your actual hand) and will jam 456~ flops pretty liberally. You might even get it in 3way vs AA** and AKK* preflop and be in great shape.

I don't see over-calling as being that bad personally (folding a bit better maybe) I think with no A's or K's in your hand you're gonna just end up being AI 35-40% p/f most of the time and that's not exactly world class stuff.

I mean it would depend a lot on the player, if he's good/balanced in general then I think the river's defo a VB as played. 

If it's defo NOT a VB then I'd be bluffing the turn a lot more against him.

Fwiw I don't really like my turn play here, was a bit of a rush of blood. Would be interested to know what people think of that and the flop though. Having thought about it I'm quite convinced on the best play OTF, but also happy to be convinced otherwise...

I lost a very silly pac-man bet in a bar one night, used to be good but too scared to play after that.

I'm not suggesting my hand here has "almost no equity" I meant my entire range that wants to c/f - have to assume giving how close I was to going all-in OTF this is the top of that range. If I somehow have a worse hand than this and elect to check-fold then I'm hardly getting blown of much equity even if my opponent KNOWS i'm folding 100% once I check...

I'm dyslexic but even I enjoyed reading this thread! thanks a LOT to sauce/GT for taking the time.

I would almost certainly ship it here. Stops you ever making bad river decisions (always a possibility OOP) and you'll be freerolling a decent % of the time.

I think 6% isn't the right range for me, if you look at the make-up of a 6% range its got a lot of hands I wouldn't have 3bet from there with, like AA74 with a suit I'd prolly just flat because there is too much Prahlad overcalling , and hands like 7788 with a suit I'd flat as well bring Prahlad and Brian in as the stacks are, imo fine to play that hand OOP with. AK** AQ** with Ahigh suits AJ**ds A978ds KQJT, AJT9 all these type of hands as well as AQQ* AJJ* as well as ofc all the magnum broadway hands. Remember I don't expect the UTG to 4bet v often and I'm trying to effectively to be able to play hands in this spot, without being OOP to Prahlad every time. At the same time I need a hand that flops well enough for when he continues preflop and that going to play well vs the UTG player.

I think KK58with a suit would be a pretty easy ship, any AKK obv also fairly sure Brian would have shipped those PF as well which is why OTF I thought he had a 3 most of the time - I also thought (prolly wrongly) that Prahlad would ship/fold more KK and QQ combo's than he'd flat (see he I'd expect to fold mid and junky KK hands) so I thought he either has a wrap type hand (which could easily have a 3) or a 3, which would quite likely have an ACE or a 4 with it. I was prolly off with the assumptions I made in hand about his range pre-flop and how he proceeds with it post-flop, i heinsight.

@Zach, remember this is 5handed - so the UTG open is also the Hijack, true to say my range preflop is just plain strong, but knowing myself what hands I'd have 3bet there most decent KKs and AQQ* would defo be a ship, along with AKQ* I'll fold a bit more to Brain ship than UTG 4bet (still not that much but I'll fold some hands with good equity vs those types of hands)

I'd been forced by the nature of my seat to be pretty tight opening but defo had been 3betting the UTG player fairly often (although way preferable to do this from his BTN and my middle blind, and then I just have Prahlad to freeze out, this spot, when im in the SB was defo the spot I had to be strongest for obvious reasons) playing pots with the stack sizes we had with those two behind me most hands was obviously pretty annoying!

Thanks very much for replying Brain, and Happy New Year!

When Prahlad first raised I was 100% shipping (In the instance of him raising, me shipping him calling I think he'll just have a 3 a fair bit but w/e lol it's an easy play) when you went all in as well my gut instinct preferred it because now Prahlad has a 3 a lot less, then I thought for a bit (usually a bad idea), made some assumptions which were;

you have a 3 a very high % of the time

Prahlad isn't folding ever hardly (I think if I had an inkling he was going to fold, even some pretty small amount it becomes a must, must, must ship because that's obviously a lovely outcome for me :) )

Most of the hands I wanna see him show up with I don't think he'd overcall preflop, like I think he'd 4b the magnum QQ/KK hands and fold the really junky ones, I don't think I can see him overcalling AK45 unless it's specifically dbl suited to the A/K and the 456* run downs would have to either have a 3 with them (bad) or have clubs and I have the 5c (since reading your post I think the majority of this is incorrect, which is sigh cos this is the most important bit prolly!)

That Prahlad would just fold some OP combo's, and some naked club/wrap combos on the flop.

A lot of Prahlad's pf range that includes 3's also includes 4's and Aces, which are quite important cards for me (I think your PF range can have a much wider selection of 3's)

Whoever doesn't have a 3 will have some of my vital cards blocked almost certainly.

I completely agree this is pretty much the top of my range AK[Q-T]3ds, double paired hands with 22 in them and AA3*/KK3*ds and AQQ3ds are my only 3's given the PF action so if I was thinking theory it would be defo really bad to fold as I basically just give Prahlad money.

I did decide to go against my initial instinct (as you know) and fold, I have a strong feeling though with the benefit of a few weeks to think about it (and your post Brian) that I just made some bad conclusions about Prahlad's PF range and how he'd proceed with the weaker ("hit") hands in his range OTF.

Another kinda silly thing that played on my mind was just 10minutes before this hand my housemate who I know has played a fair bit with you 2 in Macau walked by and i casually asked "have you played with Prahlad much" and in describing his style he said to me "He always seems to show up with sick hands in spots you'd never think he could" lol

Thanks again for the reply.

i dont know what you mean by value-cutting call?

What other hands to we wanna c/c on the turn with, OP+ FDs/FD+gutters and the top wrap? Aren't these all pretty good hands anyways, aren't the OP hands strong enough to bluff catch with on blank rivers? 94 seems like a fold OTT to me.

Just looks like the river is going to be horrible for us and really easy fpr your oppo, a good player prolly going to be able to v-bet and bluff pretty well against us even with a much stronger turn c/c range?

I think we're defo bluff-catching against a pot sized river bet vs most opponents here.

1), 2), 3)

I think he SHOULD have a turn raising range, as it's going to be easy enough for him to find combo's of hands to bluff with here OTT isn't it? Hands like 97+gutter, 9T8 and so on, problem is though (as has happened in the example) that because his flop call range isn't strong enough Phil has exploited the turn raise effectively. So if he is to have a turn raising range he needs to be flatting stronger OTF (You've said you think him extremely likely to 3b the flop with set/2p fair) So i guess the argument for 1,2 and 3 is which is the better strategy, to flat the flop with more strong hands and build a suitable turn raising range, or to not have a turn raising range?

If either of these two strategies had been implemented stronger in the specific hand posted, then you Phil, with no blockers would have a real hard time making this play? If im right?

I think flatting the flop stronger and having a turn raising range is better, although you lose some value some of the time with sets and 2p's I think calling with hands like 78T/89T and bluffing some turns is a nicer way to play those types of hands overall.

In the exact spot, whether he should raise QQ/Q9 IDK really his flop range is percieved to be pretty weak in an aggro dynamic on such a texture so in a vacuum seems like a good idea to raise.

4),5) and 6)

mmm I might be behind the curve here but can't think of any huge disadvantages to not having a 3b range OTT, even if say both of you are playing GTO accurately then you're still easily going to have enough combo's of hands to valuebet/bluff and 3bet with on this turn card against a polarized range, providing ofc that you're not going off your lid crazy 3bet bluffing the flop, even if his flop flatting range was stronger. Basically without going into actual hand/hand ranges I feel like slight mistakes in your frequencies would be easier to exploit IP if you never had a turn 3b range, than if you did have a turn 3b range.

7),8) and 9)

Sigh, sorry to much of a hangover to think about these :( no extra credits (if any credits at all even) for me

FYL your stomach must have hit the floor when he ships the river. I would be (as others have said) really surprised that he doesn't lead the SF OTR. Does anyone ever actually bluff these spots with no Q in their hand when it's so easy for you to have a hand that will call, it's pretty reasonable for you to have a hand with the 8c which would prolly easy sway you into calling as well, or the Jc but surely if he's bluffing THIS spot he HAS to have the Jack of clubs in his hand and there is, ofc no reason at all why he cant.

No range analysis which makes me post a little dormant but I couldn't really add anything that hasn't' already been said, i agree he only ships a SF and it's perfectly reasonable for him to have it.

As in interesting question if he leads the river you shipping QT and just calling QQ ??

FFS though as if the river just comes the Queen of clubs, tilt.