MidnightBacon's avatar

MidnightBacon

34 points

Thank you very much for the analysis.

If the guy that’s running the game pays attention and he’s running bad it my be surprising the small things that could set him sour. And he likes me, but his moods change on the quick. It’s an amazing game and they like to keep it as such. Slowing down the game for smallish bet fold is almost not option unless I truly wasn’t paying attention. I was paying close attention and brain stall.

My thoughts were very close to folding on the turn, and I would have regretted it entirely if anyone behind me decided to join the action for a call or a raise.

I called the turn because I thought his value range after the flop check was very small and his semi bluff range was large. So I felt obliged for the river call on the offsuit 2. As it turned out he had Kc Jx, but I wouldn’t have been surprised to be left saying “nice hand”.

I think you are completely right about the turn, 4-w with 2 people to act behind me, the call is a blunder. The turn is what I wanted analyzed the most. I really appreciate it.

Oct. 30, 2018 | 2:09 a.m.

It’s not a min raise. When you raise you don’t get an option closing action...

Oct. 26, 2018 | 12:08 p.m.

It does create bigger pots and more options from your button preflop, which I think definitely has advantages in PLO. It also promotes gambling and encourages others to follow suit, and most people make bigger mistakes when the game is playing bigger.

I like to do it in PLO and not in nlhe.

Oct. 26, 2018 | 12:07 p.m.

In the past 7 to 8 years I haven’t played any nlhe, except when waiting for other games or as part of a mix. A couple times a month I play a big but fun private 5 game mix. Some structured and some big bet.

I’m only invited some of the time because I play semi professionally and if they can fill the seat with a recreational player, they do.

10/25 NLHE 8 handed

I’ve got like $8K on the button but the effective stacks are around 3.5k.

2 players limp and hijack raises to 150.

I accidentally yank for 20 seconds, I have T4dd. I typically fold this hand 100% of the time, but because I’ve tanked they would assume I’m making a tight fold and that’s way worse than throwing away $150.

I call and we see a flop 4 ways. Pot: $625

Flop Qc 9d 3c

It checks to me, and the original raiser to my right is one of the more aggressive holdem players with a tournament background. I check back.

Turn is 4c (for a board of Qc 9d 3c 4c)

Two checks to the original raiser and he bets $300

I don’t think a 4c completes a flush for him often or makes a set or 2pair often.

I call and the other 2 players in the pot fold. The pot is now 1225.

River is the 2h (final board: Qc 9d 3c 4c 2h)

He quickly bets $600

I called.

Thoughts? Don’t know if this is standard or terrible, or not worth talking about.

Thank you in advance

Oct. 26, 2018 | 8:34 a.m.

Great job, keep crushing! Just gotta be better than the game! :)

Aug. 15, 2017 | 4:42 a.m.

35 x 3 plus some limps doesn't get to 190. So there were more callers or the bet was bigger or the pot wasn't 190.

I think in the cutoff in 5/5/10 game you should build the pot more with bigger preflop raise. I can understand not potting so it doesn't look too much like AAxx, but you should be able to raise to $60 without capping your range too much in this size game.

If your villain is a wild and aggressive player I like the raise, but think you should just raise the full amount instead of the $490 bet because the $490 is equally committing anyways.

You run near 40% equity against the stronger parts of his range (sets and top 2 pair) and you have his combo draws (KQJx, KQ9x, QJTx, QQJx, QJJx, AKJx, AQJx, QJ9x, flush draws with another piece) completely dominated! And these combos should comprise a lot his range if he's a wild and aggressive opponent. By calling you would allow for scare cards for his hand to hit, such as a flush card when he doesn't have flush draw as part of his hand, and then he may get away and you lose that extra value.

I think you played the hand mostly well, but your bet sizing is on the small side.

Aug. 8, 2017 | 11:33 a.m.

I agree with the excuse thing. If he wants to leave the table, he should really just leave silently. Kind of a needle to blame the rake, after playing pots with that same rake before leaving.

He could just as easily be testing a shortstacking strategy that he's cooked up, and seeing how it works. And then it's no longer viable after winning some pots, so he has to leave.

Either way, I don't see why the excuse. Live people always get a "phone call from their wife" right after tripling up. :P

Aug. 6, 2017 | 6:40 a.m.

He may just be playing until he gets on some higher tables. But either way, playing public games people will win quick and leave.

If he has a skill edge in the game, then him leaving before getting a chance to play deep and allowing you get a less skilled player in his seat... sounds beneficial anyways.

Really though, the beauty of playing cash is the freedom. You can rebuy every time you bust, and play as long or as short as you're in the mood. Freedom is just part of the construct of the game.

But you also have the right to be annoyed. I'm usually glad when a pro leaves my game.

Aug. 6, 2017 | 3:52 a.m.

Comment | MidnightBacon commented on .

I think it should be a call, you would have to have a laser read that he both has worse than KK and will call off with that weaker hand. When you're right about the first, the second is pretty unlikely.

I do wish he bluffed the river for a thousand though!

Aug. 2, 2017 | 7:59 a.m.

All 4 hands are great spots to discuss and the video did a great job of illustrating some different thought processes to be mindful of when playing through our own marginal spots.

Small thing, in the last hand your opponent bet 70 into 140 and to around 350, you said he was getting a little better than 1:1 to call, and if the bet is pot sized he is getting 2:1, because both of your 70s (70x2 being 140) ar in the pot making the pot 280 and your raise 280. So he's calling 280 to win 560.

I liked your students hand a lot, and I liked your analysis of what he should do in that player pool vs in a tougher/higher stakes/more balanced player pool. I was thinking fold in his player pool, and I think it would be a fold in most live games vs the majority of players just because people are under-bluffing rivers in general.

Aug. 2, 2017 | 12:14 a.m.

Comment | MidnightBacon commented on .

I think a min raise on turn looks exactly like you have an 8 and I think it will get a lot of folds. When it's not perceived as quads but maybe as a blocking and/or value raise from an over pair, what do you do if he jams?

I think you will more often lose value when you raise as it fleshes out your range as clearly being KK+, and opens you up being put in a really weird spot if/whenever he raises. Mostly I just think even tilty fish fold to the raise if they play with any regularity, you usually mention your nitty image. :)

The turn call should signify your at least having a big pair, but it leaves the villain with the option to try and rep quads, or when he gives up you can go for whatever value bet you believe to be most profitable against him.

I think if he leads river TTxx and 8xxx are both possible if he believes your 3-bet is AA-QQ heavy but if he's bluffy and tilted you have to call! And I can see why you would pay-off/bluff-catch if he raised river.

If he lead $600 on the river we're you gonna call or raise the rest of you/his remaining stack?

Always happy to try and input :)

Aug. 1, 2017 | 10:57 p.m.

Comment | MidnightBacon commented on .

If he X/Rs the river it will look a lot like an 8, but because your bet is tiny and could induce you can justify calling. :)

If you were trying specifically to induce a river bluff with the small bet I'm ok with the 100, but I think even as a small value bet you should bet the largest he may call with a medium pocket pair and I think with the $1130 pot you could get crying calls in the $225 range. And even if you're getting a call 97% of the time for $100, if you're getting paid 70% of the time for over $200 it's a more profitable bet. If I think he likely has 77-JJ I'm definitely betting more. If you're fairly sure that he's done with the hand after the turn your sizing could be pretty great. But If he knows how much is in the pot, the chance of incorrectly folding to a $200-250 bet could be just as bothersome as to a $100 bet... especially if he's on tilt enough to not care about paying off small.

Otherwise, I think your bet sizing on the flop and your choice to flat the villains turn bet are both solid. And the river bet is fine, some players check back there... I see it way too often, PLO players missing value with nutty-non-nut hands. Maximizing thin value (I don't think your hand isn't thin, but you need him to call fairly thin against your 3-bet hand that called the turn) is difficult and you made sure to get some! :)

What do you think about the river bet?

Aug. 1, 2017 | 7:05 a.m.

Live games, maybe a shortie as a catalys, but usually 1k stacks in 5-5-10 lots of blind raising in the private games but just to 25 or 50. Early in the night everyone is super floppy and AQJ8 is plenty, or just double suited junk for the real gamblers.

But the public games are more conservative, but still 5-5 if there is one gambler at the table you see pretty light 3-5 way all ins with hand that are decent coordinated hands. Stuck players getting it in light as well. But the overall hand strengths are better and usually on AAxx or AKKx. Playing in one right now, but taking a snack break.

I know online ranges are narrower in bloatedpots.

July 31, 2017 | 5:43 a.m.

Things to consider on the river decision. The price is 30 to win 70. With the line taken how many bluffs does your villain have + how many value hands does he have that you beat, weighed against how often his range has aces full on this river as played.

He's far more likely put you on a broadway heavy range when you bet the turn and less so a set of queens, so conceivably he could value shove JJ on the river, but that's the only value hand you could be ahead of. Overall him betting the flop, check calling when the turn straightens out, and then leading the river when the board pairs is gonna be value heavy, especially at lower stakes, and his value range will be pretty heavy towards aces full. Barring history with the opponent, I lean towards a fold here. You're also blocking 2 high diamonds, which makes his bet far less likely to be a missed diamond draw.

The argument for calling is that you block AQ pretty hard and your hand is under rept because your turn bet will have the villain thinking you're range is broadway heavy, making the A on the river look bad for your range and attractive to bluff.

But the queens full here is mostly a strong bluff-catcher, and I think you opponent is value heavy enough on this board with his line to find a fold.

July 30, 2017 | 11:54 a.m.

Are my games that big of outliers? I play 3-5 times a week usually in the 25-45 total hour range, all live PLO so not a great number of hands, but they add up. In public games I see a few 4+ player preflop all-in pots per session and in private games way more. Far more of the pots occur with one or even zero AAxx hands involved than with two.

I've folded ugly AAxx hands and I can see the appeal, and I'm sure it's GTO to do so against some groups of opponents with the right action. Especially with deep stacks in a tighter game.

July 30, 2017 | 11:09 a.m.

You're absolutely right. I meant to do the example for a 6 player pot, Permafloat had the 16% equity crunched against 5 villain. Dumb mistake on my part.

I was poorly trying to illustrate that if you've already added money to the pot and you're starting effective stack is exactly $1000 you can no longer do your math for pot odds based on $1000. If you've already called $100 for example in a 6-way pot, you aren't getting 5-1 on your decision, you're getting 51-9 ($5100 in the pot versus your $900 left to call) and that does swing your break even equity point a few percentage points.

July 30, 2017 | 10:30 a.m.

Comment | MidnightBacon commented on Poor turn call?

I agree that the flop bet should be larger, the board has plenty of texture and you definitely exploit your opponents harder with a larger sizing. Otherwise (and I don't think that's a huge mistake) I think you played the hand well.

July 26, 2017 | 9:33 a.m.

"Not letting yourself get bluffed" is moot, checking keeps the pot smaller and induces some river bluffs from your villain and QQ is a good bluff catcher on a lot of rivers where draws don't get there. Also after you check back, he may even value bet AK/KJ on blank river cards.

QQ doesn't do well when the pot gets big on this board, and by betting here you're giving the villain an opportunity to bluff raise you on the turn.

I don't hate a bet, but I favor a check-back and reevaluate on the river.

July 26, 2017 | 9:22 a.m.

This completely discounts the original poster's view of the villain's range, and the poster has played quite a bit with the villain. Which he believes would try to take him off of one pair (AA), with as light as one pair + knowing that flop isn't favorable to the hero's range. Which is a very effective strategy against live opponents that are transparent with aces and over c-bet unfavorable flops. If it comes down to knowing the opponent, and the hero does, then the range vs playability on later streets should favor jamming.

The check raise sizing is not particularly large for a midstakes live game where most check raises tend to be pot sized or near, and he could have raised to about 700.

It should be PJed against the heros range for the villain and maybe a slightly tighter range to doublecheck in cases of slightly misjudging the range. Not against a completely different range that throws our heros judgment out completely.

July 24, 2017 | 10:45 p.m.

No boat is available...

July 22, 2017 | 4:33 a.m.

Comment | MidnightBacon commented on .

If you're bluff catching, you aren't trying to win against 9876, that hand isn't bluffing...

I agree that it's a bad spot to try and bluff catch. The hand is strong enough, because a better hand that isn't a straight would have enough value to showdown. He's less likely to be on a FD because you have nut draw, and a set isn't likely because he would likely raise the turn with it and most live players don't go for thin value on the river with sets because they believe they can't get value from worse hands and that not enough better hands will pay them off. Straight draws make a lot of sense for a big part of you villain's range in this spot, you aren't blocking the straight that hard if he's a loose player he can have a lot of hands 68 plus pair combos, or 468x, 689x.

That being said, you're blocking J98 combos and you play with the he opponent often. Live play is largely exploitive, if you think on his misses he's betting against you with all his misses on scare cards to exploit your nitty image (lol, AJ93 oop multiway for a pot sized raise😜) and he's playing a lot of questionable holdings with lower flush draws, then there could be case.

Again, I think it's a fold blocking/holding the nfd, and on the river you're blocking 2 pairs as well. He played like a straight draw or pair plus straight draw with board that has a fd present and most opponents are gonna show you a straight there too often.

July 22, 2017 | 4:07 a.m.

We have KK, 2nd nfd, middle pair, straight blocker (or running straight draw)... against an opponent that could have a lot of holdings that connect to the board in a lot of different ways.

I think it's a shove, we are in fine shape against all but his sets, and best nfd combos. Against pair+combo-draws that don't contain the nfd, you are looking rather good. Against inside wraps containing a fd and a T for a trips draw you're running over 66% and that shoots up if he has one or no clubs. Againdst 6T combos which will usually contain a gutter, you're a coin flip. And bad scenarios: against naked top set we still have around over 35% equity, versus AcTd9c8d we actually have 33%, versus Ac9c8d7d we win 37%. Now very specific perfect hands such 2p+nfd gets us down to 20% and set+nfd has us down towards 10%.

If you were to call $475 the pot would be over 1200 and you would have around 1350 left. You would only be guessing as to what turns to fold, possibly denying yourself substantial equity when you happen to guess wrong, and at an SPR of 1.1 there shouldn't be a lot of clear folds against the range you gave him. He's likely calling a shove with between 75-100% of the hands he makes that raise with. If your thoughts on his range are accurate 100% call off is great, because the bottom of his range being something like QJT9 and T998 both of those hands have 27% and they wouldn't quite be getting the right price. But if he's only calling like 75-80% and folding some hands like a pair + gut shot and 3 live cards, then he may also fold some hands that are around 35-37% against you and getting a profitable price.

There are only 3 turn cards that nut our hand up:: Kd, Ks, Ac. If you call you have to at least also gii on all blanks (2, J, Q) and clubs. 6s & 3s (and even Ts) are tricky, he could could have TT, or T986 but those aren't the majority of his range so you're left probably getting it in. Non club 4s & 5s, you aren't comprising a lot his range to improving on those... so you should probably treat them similar to the non-club 2s. 7, 8, and 9 are hitting his range but leave you in a bit of a 'question mark' spot, 8 gives you 2p and the other two give you a gutter ball, also when those cards improve him it could just be 2-pair. Non club aces on the turn are ugly for your actual hand, but could be a scare card as he may have aces with clubs as a big part of your range.

It seems to all add up to shoving yielding more advantages, and I believe it secures more equity. I've been awake for 40 hours, I hope this isn't too terribly written. I really just agree with everything that FifthBusiness had to say! It does makes you look good for the game when you say "FUCK CAUTION" and opt to play a huge pot against a winning player with 1 pair and a non nut flush draw... in spite of the decision being made for mathy reasons, though you should keep that part a secret and order a drink!

July 21, 2017 | 1:38 a.m.

I agree, for all intents and purposes you crushed the flop at an SPR of 2. No reasons to be fancy or deceptive, just bet. Potentially put your opponents in weird spots with marginal get ins.

July 19, 2017 | 4:26 p.m.

Comment | MidnightBacon commented on GTO maths.

Facing a pot sized bet you're getting 2 to 1 odds, and you need to win 1 out of every 3 times in that spot to break even. Anything more is profitable.

If you need to win 1 out of 3 times (33.3%) and you can only beat a bluff, you only need the villain to be bluffing 34% or more to be profitable.

If you need to be right 33.3% of the time, that is the same amount you need him to be bluffing (preferably higher).

I didn't see the video, but that's I think thats the concept you're looking for.

July 19, 2017 | 2:49 p.m.

To avoid confusion, next time name the suit of the 9. If "!h" means "not a heart" I don't think everyone knows. It looks like it would mean "9 of FUCKING hearts".

I still think it's a fold, just more of a close call. With the shorter stack all in it strengthens villains range. A9xx 2 hearts, 22xx, and 45xx no hearts trying to clear a turn. You're going to be behind a lot and with few outs to improve.

July 17, 2017 | 9:07 p.m.

How short was the short stack? To star the hand.

Also, tough spot. More info is probably helpful.

Is he likely to try and take you off of an overpair with any piece?

July 17, 2017 | 11:07 a.m.

It still comes down to your win rate vs the rake. Period.

If someone plays in a manor to ensure that they keep their win rate lower... then they should work on their game and study. The goal is to win money.

Playing too tight and too short will lower your win rate, because folding positive equity high variance spots is losing that player money. Or rather causing them to profit less.

Still if the game is soft in PLO, and you play well, long term 3BB per hour should well beatable.

July 16, 2017 | 9:17 p.m.

Comment | MidnightBacon commented on .

With a 13 card nut wrap in a 7-way pot I think you should have check called the flop. Your hand plays too well on later streets when you make your hand. When an A/3/4 hits you're free rolling against the same straight, and you may get value from 2nd nut straights. So overall I think at this depth I like a check/call line because even OOP your hand does well on later streets in multi-way pots, and has the potential to play well in a huge pot. I think semi bluffing works better with A34x/J34x/345x hands that prefer getting other straight draws out but use your image rep top two pair and better.

I do think check/raising has merits, all of the merits you named. I just think that all of your straight cards making the nuts and having 7 which means every straight you complete will still freeroll to a higher straight doesn't play right as an iso with no dead money.

Once you check-raise/iso the flop, I'm torn about leading the turn. I think it's fine, but I would size higher. The $290 bet left his range a little wider because it looks like a bet that will be followed by a bet around $350-500, so it isn't leveraging his stack. Then a pot sized bet on the river after that sizing could (and may have?) work because you're tight but it looks like a bet that prefers a fold. That will sometimes get pros and thinking fish to call lighter. I thinking making a bet on the turn around $400 leverages the stack, and causes your opponent to make his decision expecting to face an all in river bet when you lead. He should be planning for later streets since you said he is a pro. So the bigger turn bet can largely accomplish the bluffing pressure that 290-1100 line does with less risk, and I think it builds a story that you're trying get your whole stack in for value.

Against a fish that isn't afraid to gamble $290, but when you shove pot will think "that tight guy bet $1100 ALL IN, he must have the nuts!!!", I think you're line is better bluff line.

July 16, 2017 | 9:17 a.m.

The pot is 120 on the turn. 30 in the pot plus a bet and two calls.

Was it 5 players seeing the flop for $6, or just 3 of you seeing it for $10 or some othe configuration.

I'm pretty sure it's a fold pretty much 100% of the time here, unless you have very special information about the two opponents.

You have straight blockers, but no blockers for the hand he's repping. Also though, semi bluffs are beating you, if he has A9xKh, or 22 and a big heart. So your hand is both too weak and not sufficiently blocking bluffs, and another player is all in, which makes bluffing far less likely.

As a player I like to error on the side of action and aggression, but I can't come up with a defense for potting on that turn, or calling off the turn raise.

July 16, 2017 | 8:01 a.m.

Any reasonably good action live game should be profitable at 5% 10 max. Both games should be fine providing they have typical live soft action. $7/half hour ($14 per hour) is normal at 5-5PLO time rake in Florida when they run it as a time rake, and the game are very beatable. If you see a live mid stakes PLO game with a line up so tough that it isn't beatable for well over 3BB per hour, for a formidable player, then you've found the only one.

Whether or not a game is profitable is not about the size of the rake alone. It's about your personal win rate in the game VERSUS the rake and tips that are coming out of it and off of the table.

The score in poker is kept track of with money. On a principle level I find it offensive if a private game somewhere takes 10% up to $50 in a 10-25$ game, and the house ends up raking far more than $1000/hour. This definitely happens, and in this example it averages out to way more than $100 per person and it only gets harsher short handed. BUT... if the action is crazy and the money flies around ridiculously, and you can average a high win rate and afford (mentally and financially) the volatility of that sort of game, you would be foolish not to play. Unless of course it was costing you the ability to play a more profitable game.

July 16, 2017 | 7:32 a.m.

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