Mudkip's avatar


410 points

For real man, take a good look at yourself. We've seen your hand posts, you play bad, the 20bb/100 you claim was pure luck. You can either accept that and a)strive for improvement b)quit c)just play for fun OR keep thinking you're the shit and have a mental breakdown every time you get unlucky and be unhappy your whole life. I promise no one that wines as much as you do can be happy.

"You're supposed to be a massive nit in today's rigged, highly raked, and bot infested games. It's the only way to win long term." That's false, nits get destroyed online unless the game is very soft and if so there's better ways to win more.

"2-3 BI's should never happen at 10nl. Not with these retards." When I was playing 5z I started with a 12BI downsing and proceeded to beat the stake for 11bb/100. So yeah, 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12 BI's should happen, if you can't deal with it leave and stop torturing yourself.

" I have no time to hand back some of my winnings to a little pos who devotes his life to a card game." You're pathetic, if you think you can win without devoting time and resort to insulting people who you think do and that you """deserve""" it more than them please, once again, take a good look at yourself.

"just have no tolerance to sessions where I have to basically "share the wealth". " You're not sharing it, it's not yours, you don't deserve it. In poker you (or anyone) don't deserve anything. You play 10nl and are bad at it, your ego needs to go down a couple (hundred) levels.

Also, if you want to play 6max against people that aren't bots nits or colluding im sure a lot of people here would be interested in playing you. Give us a call, we'll set it up.

I try to be nice to people but you're an asshole, just insulting and demeaning players you don't know and calling a "pos" to pretty much anyone that tries to improve their game.

Jan. 28, 2021 | 7:48 a.m.

That approach sucks. Why the hell would he buy in for 100bbs? Buy in for table minimum instead and rise faster!

Jan. 8, 2021 | 10:22 p.m.

They 100% will, I have a home game where we all respect raises a lot, interested? :p

Jan. 8, 2021 | 5:36 p.m.

Range disadvantage + OOP + sets make more of you range than of his so you got a nut advantage as well. Basically your top 8-10% of hands destroys his top 8-10% of hands so he doesn't really want to bet and narrow ranges.

Dec. 24, 2020 | 3:01 p.m.

I'd say its purely for simplification and because the EV loss would be minimal.
Can you try to solve when BTN can only c-bet 33% or check and one where solver can only c-bet 33% (no checking) and see EV differences between 3 solves? Should make things clearer.

Dec. 24, 2020 | 2:21 p.m.

Actually wrote that you could size down overall first being IP but then deleted because villain is bad (he should never c-bet there) so you might want to push value a bit.
22 is a fine call, just make sure it low frequency (at those stakes you might get away with calling it more often but bad habit)

Dec. 24, 2020 | 1:28 p.m.

Doesn't it change according to our overall response as well? The more we 4bet the more we can fold?

Dec. 24, 2020 | 12:35 p.m.

Hey, not many thoughts on the hand, seems well played! Can I ask what sizings would you have on the turn overall? Tnks (and also nice to see that you're at 100nl)
Also besides sizing what are you changing on the pre-flop range deep?

Dec. 24, 2020 | 12:24 p.m.

Same, maybe use smaller sizings sometimes since you're IP or calling flop a certain % too but seems well played overall, anything to pick into would be frequencies and I dont think you should worry too much about those against a villain like that

Dec. 24, 2020 | 11:30 a.m.

I mean, nothing to it really, you just get the money in with a set and no straights or flushes on board, if its set over set its set over set, nothing you can do.

If he only does that with a set you're printing against him as he is not getting value with other strong but non-set hands+not denying equity so don't sweat it.

Dec. 24, 2020 | 10:01 a.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on 50NL 3bet spot

Think this is well played overall! The one thing I'd do different is OTT use a smaller sizing there most of the time (maybe you are doing so and just happened to go bigger this time)
So first overall strategy there I think 2 sizings will do fine. 33 and 66/75. No pot bets or overbets there as the 9d is super good for villain, completing straights and flushes giving him a huge nut and range advantage as you'll want to c-bet that flop a lot.
So then with those 2 sizings I'd put most of my straights on the smaller sizing (but also a good amount of flushes to not be exploitable ofc). Then also polarize the big sizing range a lot since it contains much more of the top <10% of hands (flushes)

Dec. 24, 2020 | 9:54 a.m.

Its a SB call, right? Might want to go bigger with 2p against a probably weaker player that calls sb.
In theory not sure, sb callers are allways volatile and I believe AQs is 3bet almost ever and KJ folded on the turn so should be good enough for river bet.

(Btw raoul finally got the pc, should be all set up by next week but no skype on tablet :D )

Dec. 22, 2020 | 7:14 a.m.

I'd just like to point out that them being 0EV doesn't mean that opening them does not have its perks. When you don't open them anyone with an hud will notice and will defend tighter so you'll lose value with your top hands. There's a few more things there but the jist is that overall strategy is important and vacuum thinking can be dangerous.
100% agree with the point on blockers, Ax are nice specially on high rake environments as will generate more folds pre

Dec. 14, 2020 | 2:41 a.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on cbet oop on th flop

how'd you find this? It's from 6 years ago lmao

Dec. 13, 2020 | 6:08 p.m.

Just one thing, do all the 99 use that sizing OTR?

Anyway, thanks for taking the time!

Dec. 13, 2020 | 4:56 a.m.

PokerScientist is not a solver, it just presents solved solutions.
I have both GTO+ and PIO and I'd recommend GTO+ for a couple reasons. First it's cheaper and if you also get flopzilla pro you can do pretty much anything PIO does. Second there are a lot of solved solutions online (we also have a group where we share them) for GTO+ so you can get a good library faster.
What computer to get would be tougher, maybe shoot me a private message and we discuss it there, just ordered one for that exact purpose.

Dec. 12, 2020 | 11 p.m.

To keep it simple: Yes, J9s BTN vs SB 3bet is a "standard" call. You will want to call a c-bet often when you hit a pair (most boards, some exceptions maybe) or you'll be overfolding.
Unlucky hand, it happens.

Edit: Also note that his sizing is small for OOP 3bet, you'll want to call even more combos.

Dec. 12, 2020 | 6:55 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on 4bet pot ep vs co

I believe small sizings would be better here because of CO's nut advantage. We have and advantage on the more middling part of the range but when it comes to top 10% CO just owns us, specially when he has 3 bet or fold strategy that will force him to call all the pp's that hit a set there.
Not solving this hand, just put some ranges into flopzilla to confirm this, might solve it later if discussions gets interesting.

Dec. 12, 2020 | 6:19 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on 4bet pot ep vs co

RaoulFlush T9h is already blocked by the board, think that's what makes this combo of ATs the worst one

Dec. 12, 2020 | 6:07 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on 4bet pot ep vs co

I'm still awful at 4bet pots but this texture just seems awful for you. You do have more QQ+ but he will have all the sets and, depending on player, some 2pairs and pairs + straight draw so I think 2 big bets might make his life too easy. Won't go into detail as I'm not confident enough here. I guess the T is really good but even then...
About 4betting you really have to take position into account. A normal 4bet range for me there would be QQ+, AQo at a small/medium frequency (as a "bluff"), AKo with some small % flatting to not make calling range too weak, then AKs, QKs and some KJs. Also JJ and TT at like 50% frequency. Finally some Axs, AJ, AT and A5, not at a very high frequency. Take some care with the word bluff, as the hands that I categorized as such will still have tons of equity, is more like "bottom of range that has better blocker effects that we 4bet to not make our range too strong/face-up". Words like "bluff" and "strong/face up" are not 100% adequate here but I think are a good way to introduce the ideas, just keep that in mind.

Dec. 12, 2020 | 6:05 p.m.

Nop, never played ignition, but I'd suggest getting a good sample at 5z before moving up, specially a 5x stakes jump, gotta make sure you're ready and it can get expensive fast if you aren't

Dec. 12, 2020 | 7:49 a.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on River Bluff Sizing

The bet sizing OTR is very dependent on the ranges that get there so this is a very situation dependent thing.
The sizing will be based on the bluff to value ratio of your betting range. This is a fundamental thing that you'd be better off learning from a coach/video than from a forum comment but basically you'll want to force your opponent to have a 0EV call.
Lets say the pot size is 5, you bet another 5. Pot is now 10 and villain has to call 5 so he needs to win 1/3 of the time to breakeven. That means you will need to be bluffing 1/3 of the time so you'll need to value bet 2/3 of the time, therefore have twice has many value combos as bluffs. Basically the % of your betting range that should be bluffs is the pot odds that your bet gives your opponent.

This is a really basic simplification of river play, don't take it as gospel of any kind, you'll want to learn more about strategy in general to know what sizing to use on each street, RIO has great courses and videos if you want to do that.

Dec. 12, 2020 | 7:45 a.m.

Good luck, you can get some pretty good winrates in 5z on (I had 11bb/100 when I played it) so I assume you can get even crazier ones on the sites you play! (53 might be pushing it tho :p)

Dec. 12, 2020 | 7:24 a.m.

Yes it is!
First of all, you won't be able to instantly know how to "exploit" every player, so you will want to have a really solid foundation. And even if this was not the case, if you didn't know the proper way to play how could you properly exploit? (like DNegs98 said)
Another argument is that if you don't have a theoretically sound strategy you will get destroyed by decent players and I doubt you want to only play stakes where everyone sucks so if you want to climb you will want to be able to stand your ground against good players.

About learning it, RIO has great content, I'd recommend getting the course From the Ground Up. The course contains 1 month of essential membership and I'm sure you'll see that essential membership is also a great tool for learning very useful poker theory concepts and also how to exploit properly, there are great videos on both, many of them recent.

Good luck!
(Anyone else hate to see GTO called "default"?)

Dec. 12, 2020 | 7:21 a.m.

RunItTw1ce told me I had to watch this video and he was 100% right.
I have bookmarked it and I'll watch it every time (or until I get a solid process down :p) I want to develop an exploit to a similar "leak". Super useful on an environment where the pools are so heavy on ok-ish regs.
Really great video, thanks!

Dec. 12, 2020 | 7:12 a.m.

Yeah on AQ hand it's really interesting for the overall range, could the story be very different when using a small sizing OTF? Because the A feels like one of the best cards for overall OOP range and its still a 95% check. Maybe the bigger sizing makes the nutted hands much more important than the overall range as 2p+ is now over a third of IPs range and any bet would just allow IP to have a super strong range without overfolding so OOP gets destroyed if betting often?

I assume that on blanks IP will just be way stronger after that 70% of range betting OTF by OOP and overfold by IP, so what cards is OOP happy to see there?

Dec. 12, 2020 | 6:13 a.m.

Great video, really insightful. I never really considered the approach of 2 different sims for each sizing's, always just put both on the same one, this one has its perks for sure.

At minute 26 I'm curious about that hand in general. The turn I guess just makes sense, range is super dominating when the A comes. The river is the interesting part. I think the 9 blocker might be super relevant because of their check back. I assume he will get to the turn with a big portion of bdfds that now are just fds and perhaps the ones with a 9 are the ones that are just happier to check back and realize equity instead of building the pot (maybe not "happier", just fit that job better when it comes to balancing)? Q high ones will want to build the pot because nut potential, 56s 76s have more outs and the most prevalent card on the rest is the 9s I'd say, so that might be a good blocker effect. That might also be why it doesn't go with a smaller sizing, because of a similar effect but with clubs blocking a decent portion of the fold to small bet range? Then again, clubs will be a different story because of As Ks on the board.
I also might just be making 0 sense.

On a similar note, is it possible to share the sims in these videos so we can look into questions like these ourselves? Totally understand if not!

Anyway, thanks for your time, sorry if question + assumptions are dumb :p

Dec. 12, 2020 | 5:43 a.m.

Had no idea this series existed, great stuff, loved this one will watch all the others!

13:30: I half expected OOP to fold more vs baseline but he actually folds less when having nut disadvantage (25% vs 30%). I assume that is because he can't raise has much (10% vs 19%) for obvious reasons so he has to call more to not give up too much equity?

The interesting thing that I noted is how the EV is redistributed per combo when you add the stronger hands. Decently strong hands loose EV and the draws gain, guess it also makes sense, sizes get bigger, ranges get tighter, decent strong hands won't be has strong compared to ranges that get to later streets and are not gaining that much EV by folding a certain set of hands while draws do gain EV by folding that same set of hands and when they hit the pot is already bigger.

Guess I don't need an answer, just tell me if I'm horrible wrong please :p

Thanks for your time!

Dec. 11, 2020 | 7:10 a.m.

Range bet that flop.

You got a huge range advantage, you got good nut advantage. juts bet everything for a small sizing there and he's going to have a difficult time defending. If you range bet he can't go around folding any A or you'll be printing money with your bluffs so your hand will get paid.

You say your hand would be face up but your hand is only face up if you make it so, just think about it, if when you do that with a strong Ax the hand will be "face-up" and he will overfold his range, just bet everything. One of 2 things happens, either you print on those spots with "bluffs" or hand is no longer face-up and you'll get paid with strong hands. This is solver approved.
(disclaimer: only on situations like these where you got a huge range advantage)

Dec. 10, 2020 | 10:59 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on Out Played

Hey, first of all he only outplayed himself and got lucky.
My recommendations would be sizing up pre-flop, when OOP you'll want to make 3bets bigger, I normally go 4x, sometimes bigger. The higher SPR the more equity the IP player can take by leveraging position.
Flop is good, you can have a only c-bet 1 small sizing strategy on that board and it will be very effective but if you want to implement other sizings AA goes into the bigger ones, unblocking Kx and blocking a decent ammount of hands that are happy to float vs smaller sizing by taking 2 aces of the deck.
I'd also bet turn there, we beat almost everything and we deny equity to flushdraws and gutshots. Once check and face a bet I'm shoving it yeah.
Overall just a cooler :/

Dec. 8, 2020 | 9 p.m.

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