Mudkip's avatar


260 points

What would you pre-flop range be btw? Both here and normal opening range? ATo would probably one of the first combos I'd cut when tightening my utg open range

Oct. 26, 2020 | 12:01 p.m.

Yeah just get GTO+, you can range your oponents better than snowie and it's just better. Also much better to improve your game and practice. We got a skype group with a ton of useful sims! (and even more sims when we messed up pot sizes and wasted days of computing time :p )

Oct. 23, 2020 | 5 p.m.

So you'd put some of these sets and bluffs into the other sizings to protect/balance, right?

Oct. 23, 2020 | 11:30 a.m.

Honestly ignore snowie there then
The question is what are you doing with the rest of the range? AK, AQ, all that. Is the best option a huge polarizing sizing that checks those strong hands getting no value? Don't know, spots is weird af, but is worth considering i guess

Oct. 23, 2020 | 11:15 a.m.

Is there a way to know what range snowie gives villain there?

Oct. 23, 2020 | 10:52 a.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on Unconventional spot

Like this strat too, think I'd go with something like this if I hadn't timed out.
Actually played another weird hand that I'd like your input on, will post soon.

Oct. 22, 2020 | 2:45 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on New PokerStars themes

Do you mean the Aurora engine or am I missing something new?

Oct. 22, 2020 | 1:50 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on Unconventional spot

It's UTG yeah mb. Don't know the sample size rn, will try to find the hand again later (didn't tag it). I guess if he's opening 20% from all positions he "plays scared" so overfolding kinda makes sense. And he did fold to the raise there after I timed out.

Seems like a fair strat, tnks.
Honestly there I'm considering the EV of playing IP vs a super nit and a guy that likes to bet but seems to fold easily to agression. Ofc I can't assume that about the CO player with so few hands so it's more a hipothetical scenario.

Oct. 22, 2020 | 1:47 p.m.

Post | Mudkip posted in NLHE: Unconventional spot

So I was playing zoom and this happens:

UTG opens 3bb,
CO raises to 7bb
Hero is BTN

Some stats: HJ is 24/12/0 over 600 hands but most important 92% fold to 3 bet and seems to open around 20% from all positions.
CO only 100 hands so don't give too much weight to his stats 28/26/10, has 100% c-bet and 100% fold to bet. Only cold called twice, once from SB and once from BB (out of 9 opportunities) Again, not relevant with low number of hands but seems to fit a very specific profile.

Anyway, I'd like to know what you'd think in this situation and how you'd play range here.
I had AKo and decided to get lost in my thoughts, time out, be sad and post this here :)

Oct. 22, 2020 | 12:52 p.m.

In a nit's mind you got 45s all day :p
For real tho, in theory it's breakeven, against 90% of regs its a fold for the reasons you mentioned in the post and the reasons raoul gave I'd say

Oct. 21, 2020 | 12:39 p.m.

Unknown reg? Yeah probably but not too happily, a guy that you think is a nit? nah, don't think so
I don't really have a structured answer but here are some toughts:

Someone that uses that 3bet sizing and doesn't bet that flop? Perhaps, depends on the rest of my play a lot. Im protecting my range a lot when I don't see a c-bet there and he used a small sizing 3bet (don't think im betting any A on the flop while in theory it should be done at an okish frequency) so I can fold more hands later.

Having clubs is good for folding, as more of his bluffs have backdoor FDs on flop (and fd on turn for hearts) so they would be more likely to be bet on previous streets and therefore not make it to the river. This is a weird paradigm as one could argue that a nittier player wouldn't bluff those hands on earlier streets but the same premise also indicates that he wouldn't bluff them on the river, so I think they neutralize each other and we can just assume less bluffs because of our hand unblocking backdoors.

There's also something about a tighter 3betting range hitting this board way better than a normal 3betting range and that making it harder to find bluffs, but that probably is negated by making your blocker less usefull as a lot of hands that people won't 3bet when they have a nittier range have a Q or a J?

(Also, my money is on him having KK)

Oct. 21, 2020 | 11:21 a.m.

Yeah it was something like that, having some Ax in the checking range.

The question was more about in a situation when the BB calls your UTG open, can not having any 2x or 3x in your opening range (since you're folding A3s) cost a good chunk of EV in certain flops?

Oct. 20, 2020 | 3:31 p.m.

Good video as usual! Once again your ability to actually employ exploits vs pop leaks is great to see (even if it went wrong with the 77)

Few questions:
9:30 Are you worried about keeping some Ax in checking range?
40:00: You say population seems to be playing overly tight, shouldn't that encourage opening more hands that you'd consider marginal? Also, is not having any 3x or 2x in range when BB calls us worrisome at all or does the increased overall range strength make up for it?

Thanks for your time!

Oct. 18, 2020 | 3:53 p.m.

Enjoyed the video, live play videos from great players are always good to see good thought processes at work.

Have one question.
At 1:20 top left table: You say very low frequency check raise but what would you be raising there? Like KTs JTs with backdoors and the a percent of the offsuit versions with blockers to backdoor flushdraws?

Oct. 18, 2020 | 3:01 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on BTN vs BB 3bet pot

I'm kind of worried about having good bluffs later if I stab there too much with this particular hand. In theory it's a mix, I just think that pool at that time (I don't play at 5am too often, but from what I've seen the few times I do it) will actually check over pairs too much and play flush draws passively, that's why I'd rather bluff more with fd's or at least blockers to them earlier and then hands like this later.

River sizing is the main thing I was thinking about when posting this. In theory it's overbet, but in theory he also shouldn't check flop almost never (or actually never) so after playing a bit with solver I think I'm tending to agree more with 2/3 there

Oct. 18, 2020 | 1:08 p.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on BTN vs BB 3bet pot

Yeah I over focused on the idea of him being tight for some reason, was tired and I think I had seen something that made me more likely to think that, still gave too much weight to a small sample.
Guess I tend to look at hud stats too much and make too many assumption when I'd be better off focusing on theory with still little info.
Also I guess I underestimate the strength of BB's 3bet range a lot, but I now agree with your point about anything but standard :p

Anyway, should have focused on playing more solid in theory instead of making too many assumptions, have been trying to be more exploitative, easy to mess it up and overdo it.
Think that if my read that he was very overly tight was solid my turn thought process would have made sense? (The process I wrote was mostly about my holding specifically and not his range, I didn't want to randomize so I tried to see what would be better against the player type I had assigned him in my head, normally I'd 50/50 it there)
(Also need to study more 3bet BB vs BTN because I didn't put unpaired Ax often in his range)

Oct. 18, 2020 | 9:32 a.m.

Comment | Mudkip commented on BTN vs BB 3bet pot

Tnks :P

He actually tanked for 1 min with QJcc

Oct. 18, 2020 | 8:22 a.m.

Hand History | Mudkip posted in NLHE: BTN vs BB 3bet pot
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $25.97 (Hero)
SB: $28.08
BB: $26.30
UTG: $29.70
MP: $25.00
CO: $28.54
Villain has low c-bet and very high fold to 3bet stats, but only 150 hands sample. All his 3bets I had seen were QQ+, but again small sample
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with 8 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.62, SB folds, BB raises to $2.75, Hero calls $2.13
Think it's standard.
Flop ($5.60) J 6 4
BB checks, Hero checks
Here I was thinking that his range will be very strong given his apparently tight nature and low-cbet stat so I'd have low fold equity. I also tend to put gutshots without fd or bdfd on calling range to bluff on later streets when flush doesn't get there since I'm raising fds often and then my range would be too weak when the flush doesn't get there after I raise making it easy to overbluff. Think check is standard but a bet is ok too.
Turn ($5.60) J 6 4 9
BB bets $1.76, Hero calls $1.76
Here if he had checked I'd bet and I think a raise is ok but I like that my hand is kinda "disguised". Also think that since he's tight on c-bets I couldn't raise a sizing that would make him fold strong flushdraws as his range is so protected by overpairs, strong top pairs and JJ. Not sure my thinking makes a ton of sense here tho. Also with my draw being dominatable don't want to bloat the pot.
River ($9.12) J 6 4 9 9
BB checks, Hero bets $11.08
Here I think it's just an obvious bluff choice. When I call the turn vs that sizing I'll have a good amount of 9x, and I unblock all his flushdraws. In game I was thinking that I block a his 9x decently but in retrospect I don't think he even has any 9x in his pre-flop 3bet range from what Id seen from him previously. Besides that, no hand with less SDV in my range.
My question here is sizing. I knew I was going big, the question was how big. I know I was thinking about how inelastic his range would be vs an overbet but I think I might have overestimated that and shot myself in the foot by going this small. After I also considered that when no draw gets there and he is tight maybe a small bet would be better?

Appreciate any opinions and criticism of my thought process.

Oct. 18, 2020 | 7:47 a.m.

Cmon JamesYang there's plenty of money to be made from people who will just call without thinking about it on similar spots :)

Oct. 16, 2020 | 9:44 p.m.

can you share sb's betting range in sim?

Oct. 16, 2020 | 11:48 a.m.

"Hero calls $32.50 and is all in"
OP called.
I said I'd call but it might not be profitable because of the way that pool plays, not that it's a fold or anything.

Not sure what you're talking or complaining about, discussion is always useful even if the right play seems obvious. But hey, I guess "just pot the nuts" or something like that is much more helpful to anyone trying to think about how to maximize EV in a certain spot against a certain pool.

Oct. 16, 2020 | 9:06 a.m.

We also have QQ flating the 3bet like 50% of the time.
And yeah, in theory its undoubtedly a call, but from my knowledge of how that pool plays I'm confident that they wont value bet thin enough nor find enough bluffs.
Again, I'd for sure call it ingame, but when really thinking about what I've seen from that pool I'm not confident it's profitable

Oct. 16, 2020 | 8:14 a.m.

People can't find enough bluffs there, the question would be if they would also value bet hands that are too weak to do so there. I don't play that pool but I play 25z on .pt too so the pools should overlap and don't think that's the case on the big big majority of players.
I'd call too in game tho. Guess there's also the chance they 3bet too much from the SB vs CO (very frequent imo) and have suited conectors to bluff there.

Oct. 15, 2020 | 10:01 p.m.

Loved the format, great video!
Honestly, all 3 hands showed different aspects of play that can get overlooked. Getting max value from whales, can't really define the aspect of the 2nd hand (trying for a few minutes lmao), and spots that lack bluffs specially if pre-flop ranges are not ""perfect"" in theory.

Oct. 15, 2020 | 3:40 a.m.

Yeah think we can fold a good amount of Jx.
About the rest of the hand, flop I'd say is good, specially if you think he will make have a hard time defending properly.
Turn I don't like your sizing too much, would go bigger to 66-75%, but with your plan it might be better? Overbet has the downside of lowering river SPR by a lot.
That river gotta shove with that hand

Oct. 11, 2020 | 9:36 p.m.

(So I didn't run a sim for this but I got a few solved ones that are very similar and yeah, ATcc don't bluff river, flop and turn well played!)

Oct. 11, 2020 | 9 p.m.

Not confident at all on this answer, but river being only like 2/3 makes me think clubs are the last thing you want to have there as his folding range will be heavy on those.
Think flop and turn are good!

Oct. 11, 2020 | 8:51 p.m.

Thanks for the video, specially the first part! Second was good too, just really like the 1st part's format.

2 small questions:

16:30: The 9 of clubs combined blocking a few suited connectors has any effect on your decision to fold even if you assume the calling range you said on the start of the hand? Would you be more likely to call an ace with a low card?

30:30: Are you at all worried about giving a timing tell there?

Thanks for your time

Oct. 11, 2020 | 8:35 p.m.

Great video. I try to find a question for every video I watch to force myself to pay attention but you just explained everything so don't really have one.
The format with 2 zones seems better, better to focus and just more interesting hands per minute, think you managed to be very clear with your thoughts even with more time constraints.

(Hope you never call my strategy "interesting")

Oct. 11, 2020 | 6:14 p.m.

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