Agreed about sizing pre and the turn call. This was 13 hours into the session, so I'll blame it on that, but still, not a great call.
Maybe I was wrong, but considering his range, turning my hand into a bluff at this point does not seem like a terrible idea to me. I mostly represent overpairs, or at least 99-TT here, maybe some AK-AQ, but I would not call the turn with those against him. My bet preflop makes any 8, 5 or 2 unlikely (except for sets, which he would have heard of by now).
From his point of view, giving me a range of 55+,AJs+,76s,AJo+, he can really only call if he puts me purely on a bluff, which only happens if I have 67 or AQ+. I don't think he'd be willing to risk his stack facing those odds, no?
I'm just curious since he immediately thought I won after he checked it back.
March 3, 2016 | 7:08 a.m.
Starting to play live, just going from memory.
6 players, about 200bb's deep or more except the stack on my right (80bbs, donk), sitting in the CO. Player in the BTN is strong, usually has it when he bets.
Straddle in play, donk calls 5$, I have 77 and raise to 20$, BTN calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, and donk to my right folds.
Flop 852 rainbow, pot ~80$ (rake). checked to me, I lead for 35$, BTN calls, everyone else folds.
Turn J, still no flush. I check, bet is 45$, I call.
River is another 2, pairing the board. I think about it, then check, he checks back. He scoops with 85o, after thinking he had lost (he put me on a bigger pair and thought he was counterfeited).
What do you think of my play/sizing? On river, assuming the effective stack was about 200bb (I started with 450, he started with 300 if I remember correctly), what do you think of a bluff vs his range?
I mistakenly put him on a 67-type drawing hand, since I didn't think he'd call with 85o with so many people to act after him pre, even if he was on the button.
March 2, 2016 | 1:29 p.m.
On the topic of happiness, I think there are two "types" (if you can call them that) of happiness. Long and short term.
Watching TV, eating pizza, going out with friends, etc result in short term happiness. Studying hard, whether it's poker, college or a Ph. D., working hard, etc, contributes to your long term happiness.
In other words, short term happiness is that feeling of euphoria you get when you're doing something fun. Long term happiness is the feeling of accomplishment and the pride you have after completing a task. Personally, I love short term happiness, but long term happiness is the goal I strive for. Being able to look back at my life and smile is something I'd like to do one day.
Feb. 21, 2016 | 2:34 p.m.
Just go back to poker, so take this with a grain of salt.
My biggest issue with your hand is your preflop 5b sizing. You're essentially telling the villain that you have a very strong hand, and giving him great pot odds to continue. As you said, you're never bluffing here. IMO, raising to 9-10 will make the hand much easier to play, and make him pay if he wants to see a flop. It also gives him the option of shoving over you if he thinks your weak or if he has AK/AQ (if he's donk enough), in which case you easily call.
My impression of the rest of the hand is that you were afraid he wouldn't follow you on the flow, so you bet small (to try to reel him in), and on the turn you were afraid of the draws coming in, so you shoved it preemptively to try to protect your value. As played, I think I would have checked the flop and give him the chance to hang himself if he thinks you're weak, and if not, lead the turn with a bet of 8$ or 9$ to make him pay for drawing (if he's drawing). Every other hand is either near-dead against you (Lower pockets), or have you in a cooler (flopped sets, those could have been avoided with a bigger preflop sizing I think).
Feb. 21, 2016 | 2:53 a.m.
For those who don't know me, which should be most of you (Mush, Zen, Aleks, Chael, Midori & Phil, how have you been?), I was active about a year and a half ago, posting mainly in the NLHE and Chatter forums. To me, poker is more of a hobby than a lively hood, but I still try to take it seriously, as long as I'm enjoying myself. I was doing other stuff for the past two years, and I haven't played much, so I'll be taking it slow.
All this to say I may become more active in the coming months. Nice to see RIO is still going strong, and it feels good to be back.
Feb. 21, 2016 | 12:29 a.m.
I'm not sure I completely understood your question, but I think this is the best way to answer it.
If you go all in preflop with 22 against AK you will win 52% of the time in the long run. It has nothing to do with whether Brunson thinks they beat AK or not, it's a fact.
However, when you're constructing preflop ranges, 22 is a hand that is very easily dominated by any pair, and in the best case scenario, you're flipping. Because of that, it's sometimes more profitable to add Qx to your range or Jx and avoid playing 22.
Hope this helped.
Sept. 26, 2014 | 6:20 a.m.
You guys are absolutely right, my mistake.
If we are getting 2.23:1 odds we would divide 1/3.23 not 2.23 to get a percentage and that is 30.96%.
That's absolutely right, thanks for the correction guys. I'll edit my original post to show the right odds.
Sept. 25, 2014 | 8:06 p.m.
FIVEbetbLUFF: What did I miss?
Sept. 25, 2014 | 7:54 p.m.
I don't think villain will be stone cold bluffing very often by 3betting on the turn, so I'll just put his turn 3betting range against our set.
I think the most likely consist of combo draws that cbet you on the flop (AKcc, ATcc), 2 pairs (QJs), sets (QQ, 77, JJ), 1 pair+draw combo (AJcc, KJcc), overpairs (KK, AA) and of course the straight (T9s). This gives us a range of (JJ+,77,AcKc,AcJc,AcTc,KcJc,QJs,T9s) for the villain. I tried to give him the strongest plausible range I could think of just to see if calling is close to break even, so this doesn't include any bluffs or weak draws he may have.
Assuming we x/r at about $40, and he 3b jams his stack (it wouldn't make sense to 3bet less with his stack size, since he's committing himself and you would commit yourself to the pot by calling), you would have to call $87.37 to win $194.87, so you have to be right 30.96% of the time to break even (2.23:1 odds).
Against the range I mentionned earlier, you have a 65.68% of winning, which is a lot more than you need to be breaking even when calling, so from a purely mathematical standpoint, I would call.
*Just a little reminder that the range I gave him was assuming he never 3bet shoves complete air, so calling may be even more profitable than 65%.*EDIT: Pot odds corrected, thanks for the replies guys.
Sept. 25, 2014 | 5:40 p.m.
I agree with Chael when he says you should try to always use the same timing, but it's still interesting to explore the subject.
I think snap jamming polarises your range, but weighs it more towards bluffs, making it the best option if you want somebody to call your bet.
The general assumption when somebody snap jams is that he didn't think about the decision at hand, so he was either careless/on tilt/spewing or he knew his only option was to shove (either for value or as a bluff) so he didn't think about his decision very long.
It's the same logic as when a player snap calls on multiple streets: He's probably thinking he's always getting bluffed off his hands and he wants to get to showdown no matter what, so he'll call all your bets very quickly, which means you should go to value town.
The most reliable timing tell that I have found is when you have a short stack (5-15 BBs post-flop) OOP and you want to bluff somebody.
I found that pausing for about 7-10 seconds before checking makes you're opponent think that you have a made hand and you're hesitating between betting it yourself or check-raising. He will often check behind and then you can easily take the pot with a small turn bet. If he does bet, it's usually a small bet and you can check-raise to take the pot down a very high % of the time.
I know it's not exactly what you were looking for but I thought I would still share.
Hope it helps!
Sept. 25, 2014 | 5:19 p.m.
To expand on deadgambino's last comment, luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity (Seneca the Elder, Roman philosopher).
I believe Esfandiari's win was linked to his meditation and his new mental game training (his attitude in general), but I don't think that's what made him win the tournament. He prepared himself mentally and convinced himself he was going to win the tournament, which helped him stay motivated and concentrated throughout the tournament.
Antonio may not have won the tournament if he had not trained his mental game, but the fact that he won the tournament isn't a direct result of his "clear intention". His "clear intention" mentality helped him win the tournament, but he couldn't have done it without the opportunity (running good).
Sept. 25, 2014 | 4:53 p.m.
First of all, there are very few hands that call and beat you vs the hands that call and lose to you. Therefore, I don't think you should be folding or pot-controlling this hand unless you have a rock solid tell, so your goal should be to get as much money in the pot. That being said, let's dive in.
I partially agree with GInTheorem. As played I would raise turn and shove river as he said, but ideally I would overbet the flop to try to inflate the pot early on.
If the player is semi-advanced, he's going to get curious a good % of the time when you donk overbet and either call or raise with AQ/AJ/KK/AA.
A weaker player will often call with a draw or a single pair (AQ/AJ/KK/AA) and he can call down multiple streets thinking only T9 beats him and that T9 isn't part (or a very small part) of you 3b calling range.
A x/r on the flop would scare away most good players, so I think if you can replay from the start, donk-overbetting the flop is the best play.
Sept. 25, 2014 | 4:21 p.m.
Just found this thread, but I think you made the right choice by moving away from Zone. You were absolutely crushing, but in the long run it would have hindered your development as a player as well as your hourly (in my opinion).
Keep stacking does chips man!
Aug. 26, 2014 | 2:17 a.m.
I don't think I will be willing to put money down if this challenge is a year long. 2k to 30k is a little too easy to achieve in a year in my opinion.
I wish you the best though, I'll be watching from time to time.
June 22, 2014 | 9:42 p.m.
On another note:
The Rational group applied for a patent for fast-fold poker (Zoom, Rush, etc.) a few months ago, so if you want to learn Zoom, now's the time to do it, before the player pool gets a bunch of new players to beat up.
On top of that, if Full Tilt and Pokerstars enter the U.S. market, you might get a second Zoom-Boom.
June 20, 2014 | 8:12 a.m.
If getting drunk means 430bb/100, I'll happily chug a 12-pack right now. GG Mush.
June 18, 2014 | 10:35 a.m.
That HU match was the greatest to rail... I didn't sleep that night.
June 17, 2014 | 1:27 a.m.
I agree. When I said I was new to the SnG scene, I meant that I've played a couple thousand SnG across all stakes and I'm break even in those games. I wasn't looking for a chart so that I could jump in the games and expect to crush.
The main goal behind this thread was to find concrete examples of some of the charts out there. I had difficulty finding them on my own, so I asked for help.
I want to use those charts to get a better understanding of short stack play, and maybe identify some leaks in my games (which I am sure there are plenty).
June 15, 2014 | 2:51 a.m.
I might be interested in putting some money down, just to spice things up. I'd want to watch a video or two before though, just to get a feel. We'd also have to agree to the terms.
I'll check up on this thread once you have a video up.