Also folding turn.
April 10, 2017 | 11 a.m.
river isn't that good a spot to bluff, A92r flop means we're not going to have many QJ combos. We potentially have showdown, i'd take it.
April 10, 2017 | 11 a.m.
So we are getting 2:1 on a call, 33% required to stack off. If our outs are clean we have approximately 15 improve, or 30%. He can of course have a wrap like JQKx etc which we're ahead of. We're still behind AAxx. As played I think the stack off is near enough fine. But I don't think thats the best play.
April 8, 2017 | 12:33 p.m.
PPT rankings are based on AI equity, hand v hand. Not the best for postflop play. Our FD's are weak, draws can be easily nutted. Not as highly ranked as it suggests.
April 8, 2017 | 12:48 a.m.
Bet/calling at this SPR, betting pot'ish. 3b range of co really shouldn't have sets here. We can get villain off large equity share of the pot, e.g. 7xxx, a 9 should probably fold without a redraw too.
April 8, 2017 | 12:47 a.m.
preflop the range you are assigning him is far too tight, OP said he is raising 36%, you are listing something around the top 10% of hands.
The 3b is viable IP against someone opening relatively wide OOP.
When 4b it is a worse mistake with this hand being this deep to fold pre than to peel and see a flop. Our hand plays very well postflop and is much better than a hand like QQT9ss for example.
Jan. 23, 2017 | 1:37 p.m.
I think you played it well, I think you can raise flop too. Either or is good enough imo. I don't think there is much distinction between both at our stakes, maybe if 4bet range was wider pre than the usual then raise > call.
Jan. 23, 2017 | 1:35 p.m.
Viewing a blank screen on dropbox, I fold.
Jan. 22, 2017 | 5:20 p.m.
Leading flop in to 4 players, lot of vulnerable turns for our hand where villain can play turn perfectly and we are at a disadvantage on many rivers being oop. For example, any T-K bring a FD will likely give villain 33% to our range when we bet turn and get called and they're not making any equity mistake then. We're also not sure where we stand as possible straights etc etc.
Jan. 22, 2017 | 5:15 p.m.
In terms of analyzing the hand, we can make assumptions about how wide the button would flat against a cut off open. Then apply that along with the flop raise and see how it pans out from there.
We will get folds when betting here too sometimes so betting isn't necessarily the incorrect play.
If we guess button flats 30% minus 6% 3b range then (guesstimate) and apply a raising range in ppt we get:
A flop range before bet and BTN raise:
When BTN raises, give him a range in ppt and see what our equity is:
70/30, so if we go with your bet sizing, in order to stack off we need ~35% equity, we actually have 30% if you agree with that range so it should be a bet/fold.
Hope this helped.
Jan. 22, 2017 | 5:09 p.m.
I am not squeezing these aces pre, we are not suited and will not play very easily oop against 2 players. Very unlikely we get a hu pot so there are going to be a lot of flops we have to check. SPR of 3 on the flop is still a little high to bet gii in to 3 players.
This hand will play really well in a mw pot, we allow bb to come in with garbage pairs your squeeze will fold out and we loose value post flop there.
Flat pre, x/evaluate most flops. Possibly lead if favorable.
In terms of the stats you are using I don't think they're relevant enough in terms of the way you're looking at them or the sample size. Yes, we have a rough idea BTN is loose pre however, 120 hands is not enough to understand his postflop game solely by looking at your HUD. Play often changes considerably multi-way compared to heads-up with players usually playing tighter and I imagine the stats you're looking at are not for 3b pots.
Our situation is a 3b pot, multi-way, oop. Looking at stats to evaluate this situation would require a hell of a lot of info that we don't have.
In this spot I think I bet call against one opponent and fold against 2. Not against checking this though. Both options are viable in my mind.
Jan. 22, 2017 | 4:56 p.m.
I think I would sigh call. We block top set which is slightly annoying in this spot I think, being more advantageous for him to be more likely holding KdK with the blocker, or AdKK, of course there are a lot of combos of them hands with 2 diamonds in but we have two. Its a close spot, I think I call and make a note of his line for sure.
I think if you are seeing KdXd and AdXd at showdown, then you can potentially read in to his flop sizing and exploit. Just under 1/2 pot on a board where so many turns will change the nuts just seems very poor sizing.