graph this month so far, most of my downswing occured on other site, I lost about 600$ there. I had pretty bad session yesterday,missplayed couple of hands got some bad run, and started to tilt a bit. I used to pretend I'm coach and talk about hands while playing, and last session I didn't so, maybe that got me of the track
Aug. 17, 2019 | 1:23 p.m.
I got a big breakdown after continously floping sets over sets, bluffs getting called by top range, I just started shoving stacks 4way with air, as I dont feel like strategy helps, I just turned off tables after punting couple of stacks
Aug. 7, 2019 | 2:07 p.m.
decided to give a shot to rush and cash format on GG, started out pretty well, and then lost 5buy ins in one hand, nuts over nuts both holding different FD's get all in OTT xd
biggest lost pot so far
lost another like 5 buy'ins Nut Flush over FH, Top Two over backdoor str8 etc.. I'll take a break for sure
update: I keep fighting xd
top full house over quads
Aug. 4, 2019 | 8:28 p.m.
I have no idea how to play anymore, people are opening limping all around and just taking my stacks away xd I honestly start to think games are rigged or smth, and yes I know how pathetic that sound in poker strat forum ;dd so I guess I need to take a break
Aug. 4, 2019 | 7 p.m.
Most interesting hands of yesterday:
I think river sizing is no good given my range
Tough one ag weaker reg, not sure if it's winning when there's a decent chance he will choose to bluff with smaller sizing, and this sizing will likely be only quads lol
Aug. 4, 2019 | 11:42 a.m.
I don't really think that variance calculator is legit from what I've seen, models seems off, even in category ''About this tool'', 5th paragraph says: "All models are wrong, but some are useful" - George E.P. Box. We use confidence intervals to estimate our ''real'' winrate, not to estimate how we can run with our real winrate, because no one know their real winrate in ball park of few bb/100
July 31, 2019 | 11:29 a.m.
Once again got on a downswing, basically whole month was recovering from downswing, eventually get there, and then another one hits and I'm trying to recover again. Lately it feels like I just sit down and lose couple of pots in some ridicilous ways, then get tilted and turn off tables and it feels extra disgusting when tables are super soft. Idk anymore maybe I'm just bad at recognizing variance and I don't have such edge I imagine I do then everything would make much more sense, because atm It feels so fucking unfair, what I treat as a bad regs zooming with 500bbs on several tables and I just get screwed by them in some ridicilous fashion. Have played quite bad, and spewed couple of stacks due to a bad mindset/tilt, hoping next month will be better.
graph so far
won around 250bucks on other site as well
July 29, 2019 | 8:26 p.m.
Given your sample and winrate in 70% confidence interval your real winrate is between 8-12bb/100, I don’t expect your wr to drop down more than 2-3bb/100 after you will get psychologically comfortable in higher stakes, lets take worst case scenario and lets say you will win at 5bb/100, your minimum bankroll requirement for less than 5% risk of ruin is around 22 buy-ins, so yes, you can definitely can go a head and take some shots higher. You can google poker variance calculator and tweak parameters as you wish, pretty useful tool, especially when running bad using it as a “reality check” helps to maintain confidence in place
July 25, 2019 | 2:27 p.m.
There’s bunch of great hu content here at rio, but at least for most of them you need an elite membership
July 23, 2019 | 9:51 p.m.
Preflop 3bet or fold in this rake environment, unless there's big fish, or at least few weaker players behind. On flop with this much equity anything is fine and likely similar ev, I would mix probably like 50/50, unless there's any exploitative reason to shift our mix strategy hand one way or another, in this particular case given villain sizing witch is likely unbalanced I would probably go with raise because I feel like that range consist of medium strengh hands and bunch of draws/backdoors, so I like raise to deny equity and get value from dominated draws. I don't like turn sizing, you should have only one size imo witch is small overbet (110-120%), because your value range is pretty strong, besides A10s there's basically nuts or bluffs. OTR standart check, blocking both A-high FD's and couple combo draws with 5x. You should sometimes get to the river with hands like A5,A2 no diamonds, who I suspect to be pure bluffing, but that's far from enough bluffs because your value range is quite wide here, so other bluffs should come from suited connectors most likely, who you really cant profitably call preflop, so finding enough bluffs is pretty tough given your range, witch points out that you're either making -ev calls pre because of rake, or your preflop range construction is pretty fucked, so I would suggest not having a flatting range here as standart
July 21, 2019 | 4:33 p.m.
Open limp and 0/0 even over 12hands, strikes me as tight passive, so even flop call is close imo, I would never fold myself because I'm not disciplined enough, but I think it would be a reasonable play against this player type, even though it sounds crazy. I would mostly play my AA combos as check on flop, because it's not only correct optimally, but as well plays pretty well in practice, at least from my experience
July 21, 2019 | 3:42 p.m.
At least caught a little heater after pretty bad stretch. Doing quite well, regained my confidence and playing way better, probably part of it because I got more volume in and feeling more sharp.
UTG: $50.00 (100 bb)
MP: $63.69 (127 bb)
CO (Hero): $57.61 (115 bb)
BU: $50.00 (100 bb)
SB: $27.13 (54 bb)
BB: $50.00 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K♣ 9♣
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $1.70, BTN calls $1.70, 2 players fold, MP calls $1.20
Flop: ($5.85) T♥ J♦ K♦ (3 players)
MP checks, Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($5.85) 7♠ (3 players)
MP checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $7.12, MP folds, Hero calls $7.12
River: ($20.09) T♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $41.18 (all-in), Hero calls $41.18
Total pot: $102.45
BU shows 9♥ 9♠ (two pair, Tens and Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 66%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 11%, River: 0%)
CO (Hero) shows K♣ 9♣ (two pair, Kings and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 34%, Flop: 87%, Turn: 89%, River: 100%)
One of the better regs at player pool, capable of exploiting so decided to bluffcatch, 9x is pretty decent. As well I think it's a sizing tell from him, as I feel he would value bet w smaller sizings because player pool is pretty capped at this spot and super nitty what comes to bluffcatching against big sizings.
UTG: $86.33 (173 bb)
MP: $52.75 (106 bb)
CO: $233.37 (467 bb)
BU (Hero): $70.16 (140 bb)
SB: $50.00 (100 bb)
BB: $54.69 (109 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 5♠ A♠
UTG raises to $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, Hero 3-bets to $6, 2 players fold, UTG calls $4.50, 1 fold
Flop: ($14.25) A♥ 8♣ T♦ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($14.25) T♠ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($14.25) J♣ (2 players)
UTG bets $4.50, Hero raises to $27.75, UTG calls $23.25
Total pot: $69.75 (Rake: $3.48)
BU (Hero) shows 5♠ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 33%, Flop: 86%, Turn: 95%, River: 0%)
UTG shows J♠ J♥ (a full house, Jacks full of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 67%, Flop: 14%, Turn: 5%, River: 100%)
Bluff gone wrong, not sure if he wanted to slow roll me or was thinking of folding because he used whole minute of time bank. I thought maybe sizing is a little bit unbalanced and this is a lot of AK,AQ type of stuff, quite happy with my bluff as he likely was seriously considering folding second nuts on board.
UTG: $88.03 (176 bb)
MP: $12.86 (26 bb)
CO (Hero): $64.86 (130 bb)
BU: $39.35 (79 bb)
SB: $19.19 (38 bb)
BB: $31.30 (63 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 2♠ 2♣
2 players fold, Hero raises to $1.12, BTN calls $1.12, 2 players fold
Flop: ($2.99) T♥ 4♠ A♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.99, BTN calls $1.99
Turn: ($6.97) 5♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $7.96, BTN calls $7.96
River: ($22.89) 4♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $53.79 (all-in), BTN calls $28.28 (all-in)
Total pot: $79.45
CO (Hero) shows 2♠ 2♣ (two pair, Fours and Twos)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 15%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)
BU shows 9♣ A♣ (two pair, Aces and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 85%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)
One more fancy bluff gone wrong, wasn't my finest play against unknown
UTG: $59.59 (119 bb)
MP (Hero): $66.88 (134 bb)
CO: $94.39 (189 bb)
BU: $100.12 (200 bb)
SB: $24.21 (48 bb)
BB: $25.00 (50 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with A♣ A♦
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.06, 1 fold, BTN 3-bets to $1.62, SB calls $1.37, 1 fold, Hero 4-bets to $6.04, BTN calls $4.42, 1 fold
Flop: ($14.20) 5♥ 7♣ 4♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7.10, Hero calls $7.10
Turn: ($28.40) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $86.98 (all-in), Hero calls $53.74 (all-in)
River: ($135.88) A♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $135.88
BU shows J♥ T♥ (high card, Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 22%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)
MP (Hero) shows A♣ A♦ (three of a kind, Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 78%, Flop: 91%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)
MP (Hero) wins $131.88
Villain rep draw, still quite tough to click call button
UTG: $56.28 (113 bb)
MP: $50.00 (100 bb)
CO: $52.92 (106 bb)
BU (Hero): $52.25 (105 bb)
SB: $36.93 (74 bb)
BB: $112.77 (226 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with Q♠ T♠
2 players fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero 3-bets to $4.50, SB calls $4.25, 2 players fold
Flop: ($11) 8♦ A♣ J♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.13, SB calls $3.13
Turn: ($17.26) 9♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.99, SB calls $6.99
River: ($31.24) 7♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $37.63 (all-in), SB calls $22.31 (all-in)
Total pot: $75.86 (Rake: $3.79)
BU (Hero) shows Q♠ T♠ (a straight, Eight to Queen)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 52%, Flop: 56%, Turn: 100%, River: 100%)
SB shows 3♦ 3♠ (a pair of Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 48%, Flop: 44%, Turn: 0%, River: 0%)
BU (Hero) wins $72.07
bluff catch gone wrong, lol
July 21, 2019 | 3:06 p.m.
If u play regulary those games and you only have 16hands on a guy that’s a great indicator you can fold all your bluffcatchers quite happily, only very best regs or spazzy whales at these limits are capable of bluffing here
July 21, 2019 | 2:20 p.m.
I have seen lots of hands by Linus so Im pretty sure its him. Other human players seems bad, from what ive seen so far
July 19, 2019 | 10:48 a.m.
Given 11x over 2.5x we want to have calls imo, it depends on what sb squeeze range is if it's polar or linear, he has flatting range or not etc. Against totally unknowns I tend to choose safer option and 4bet AK, KK or QQ+