March 15, 2019 | 11:05 p.m.
7+ bb/100 at 200z is crazy in my opinion, these days.
I'd call 0-2 struggling, 2-4 decent, 4-6 good, 6-8 very good, and higher crushing. (including rakeback in the winrate)
Maybe you can just play some 500z now and then when you feel like you're in the zone (playing your A+ game), feel confident and the pool is softer than average, while keeping 200z your main game if moving up is such a big issue for your mental game.
I'm really curious how well you would do and don't understand what you're waiting for. I played almost 200k hands at nl200 it looks like I'm basically just a rakeback grinder at the moment and it fucking sucks.
March 14, 2019 | 1:16 p.m.
With taking a shot I basically just mean moving up stakes (with a 10BI stop loss or so). I usually did it when I had 50 buy-ins for the next stake.
Variance can really skew a 50k sample but you're never going to get a big sample without making one. You're winning over 8bb/100 at 200z over 1 million hands, it's very likely that you're profitable at 500z. You have one of the best winrates I've ever seen...
March 14, 2019 | 7:44 a.m.
I'd have to look up the math to do the calculations for this betsize but I can simplify the explanation with pot sized bets. (In the example the betsize is even bigger so IP can bluff even more hands.)
IP can bet a balanced range (make OOP indifferent to calling) by betting 2 bluffs for every value hand on the flop, 1 bluff per value hand on the turn and 0,5 bluffs for every value hand on the river.
If IP has 12 value hands he can bet 24 bluffs on the flop with a pot sized bet, but he only has 20 bluffs in the example, so OOP should always fold.
March 12, 2019 | 12:07 p.m.
IP can overbet as big as he wants when his valuebets can´t lose. IP can add the appropriate amount of bluffs so OOP can't profitably call or is indifferent between calling and folding.
If OOP can have the nuts it stops IP from overbetting as big as he wants because above a certain betsize he´s only going to get called by the nuts.
The consequence is that IP will have to bet smaller and can bet fewer bluffs.
->IP has to give up with more of his bluffs.
->OOP gets a bigger share of the EV with his bluffcatchers.
March 12, 2019 | 9:22 a.m.
I'd just call flop but I don't think raising is horrible. Against small cbets it's good to xr wider to deny equity to overcards (which is a big part of UTG's range if he's betting his whole range) but I think this hand just goes better into a x/c range. Hands like 66,55,22 would be better because they can turn more equity with OESDs and gutshots and need more protection against overcards.
I don't like the turn bet. UTG has all TT+ and more Jx than you. (offsuit broadways)
Check/calling would be great because the turn gives him more draws that he could bluff and might prevent him valuebetting QQ+ twice for value.
March 11, 2019 | 11:08 a.m.
Check/raise flop. I think this board is better for BU and he also has a lot of draws that he might bet/fold. Overbet turn if he checks back. Balance with combo draws and maybe some 8x.
Rest of the hand is good as long as you also have flushes in your range OTR with that betsize.
March 11, 2019 | 10:29 a.m.
Hey, is it enough to use your own database for h2n research or is it necessary to have millions of hands?
Why haven't you taken shots at 500z yet? If I was you I don't think I could resist trying with such a winrate :p
March 11, 2019 | 9:07 a.m.
I don´t know but I guess it´s because of the flop subsets that are used to run the sim, they´re not a perfect representation of every possible board and its frequency.
The EV of the hands around the border of two actions is probably very close and all it takes for an anomaly in the solution is a Q6x board and no Q7x board in the flop subset or a K8x board more than there are K9x boards in it for example.
March 2, 2019 | 2:44 p.m.
CO: $200.00 (Hero)
CO wins and shows a full house, Jacks full of Sixes.
CO wins $139.84
Rake is $2.00
Dec. 7, 2018 | 3:55 a.m.
MP: $300.95 (Hero)
MP lost and shows two pairs, Fours and Threes.
BB wins $249.18
Rake is $3.00
Dec. 7, 2018 | 3:48 a.m.
CO: $327.51 (Hero)
CO wins and shows a flush, King high.
BN wins $585.24 CO wins $0.00
Rake is $3.00
Dec. 7, 2018 | 3:32 a.m.
I wouldn't 3b unless he's opening and/or calling 3bets too wide. Flop and turn is good. River is a check imo. You need 50% vs his calling range to value bet and too much stuff beats you which he won't always lead river with. He can even have AK lol.
Dec. 6, 2018 | 10:49 p.m.
Which Tx can you have OTR? Probably all AT T8s T7s and maybe all KT? That's quite a lot so your range is well protected, no need to call for a split with hands that block hearts.
If you have a read/note/stats that this guy is one if those recs who attacks every check with ATC it's a call. You need 21% equity to call and it´s always to split the pot so he needs to be bluffing 42% of the time right?
Dec. 4, 2018 | 4:07 p.m.
Yeah I thought folding was obviously the right play but I wasn't disciplined enough to lay it down. :(
Even if some people are capable of bluffing here, I probably block most of the hands they do it with.
Nov. 30, 2018 | 12:55 p.m.
I can't have 9xhh 4xhh because those are on the board. It's really hard to have too many bluffs here because I have so much 2p+. Combo draws have so much equity that they can't really be considered purely a bluff.
Nov. 30, 2018 | 12:43 p.m.
Yeah I was considering raising the flop but just calling everything makes my range easier to play. If I xr flop I probably have to mix some sets between xc and xr and I don't know what the right frequencies are.
I understand your point about raising smaller to get value from a bigger part of his range but I don't agree that he has more/stronger nuts than me. He does have KK which I don't but I have all QTs in my range 100% of the time which he probably never or rarely has. His value range is mostly AK and AA and it's really hard to call my shove with those because I have a lot of two pair+.
If I just call and miss I lose a $143 pot and if I hit something I don't get paid off most of the time. Check/shove makes me win the pot without showdown most of the time and If I get called I still win almost half the time.
Nov. 30, 2018 | 12:38 p.m.
SB: $334.22 (Hero)
Rake is $3.00
Nov. 30, 2018 | 2:35 a.m.
CO wins and shows a flush, Queen high.
CO wins $480.26
Rake is $3.00
Nov. 30, 2018 | 2:25 a.m.
BN: $349.43 (Hero)
BB wins and shows a full house, Kings full of Jacks.
BB wins $705.86
Rake is $3.00
Nov. 30, 2018 | 2:11 a.m.
Yeah that makes sense. I was wondering what's going on with regs 3betting to 4.5-6x the open raise size nowadays. It's pretty annoying because I can't really 4bet bluff them when anything much bigger than a min4b would make me pot committed, and a min4bet gives them good odds to see a flop with pretty much anything.
Would it be a good strategy to just call our entire defending range to those huge 3bets? Or maybe min4bet linear?
Nov. 28, 2018 | 5:13 p.m.
I just moved up to nl200 shorthanded at the start of this month. I've played about 45k hands there so far with 2,5 EV bb/100 and I get over $2000 in rakeback per month so it's unlikely that I'll have to drop down but I want to be one of the best regs at the stake I'm playing. Apart from making more money it would be more fun if I don't have to table select as hard to be +EV and could just start my own tables and play anyone.
The one thing I wish I knew is what is the most efficient way to improve my game. The answer is probably solvers but there are millions of different spots postflop and I have to make a lot of assumptions about peoples ranges + the solutions are like a maze to me with mixed strategies with a lot of hands and a lot doesn't even make sense and I don't know where to start with it.
Nov. 28, 2018 | 4:33 p.m.
BTW, you have to assume one player or the other is a fish as the 3bet
size is sub-optimal. Either OP is not a strong reg and doesn't know
what stronger strategies look like or OP is targeting the CO being a
fish with his small size 3bet.
I just 3bet pot OOP and slightly smaller than pot IP when 100bb deep. For every 20bb that stacks are bigger I add 0,5bb. How big would you have made it and why do you think your sizing is better?