Hey, I want try something new in my preflop strategy so I'm trying to make a simplified/condensed preflop chart based on monkersolver ranges that I can keep open on my second screen while playing. I just started and I already have some questions though, I hope someone can help. (I'm using 3bb RFI, 10-11.5bb 3Bet, 23.5-26bb 4Bet sizings)
1) Why does it fold so much to 3bets and how is this not extremely exploitable? About half of these stats make villain's 3Bet with any 2 cards autoprofit.
Fold to 3bet percentages are:
UTG vs MP: 75 / UTG vs CO: 75.7 / UTG vs BU: 69.7 / UTG vs SB: 67.7 / UTG vs BB: 59.8
MP vs CO: 78.9 / MP vs BU: 73 / MP vs SB: 66.9 / MP vs BB: 60.1
CO vs BU: 73.9 / CO vs SB: 66 / CO vs BB: 59.7
BU vs SB: 70.5 / BU vs BB: 61.2
SB vs BB: 64.9
2) How can I simplify hands that are mixed? Many hands are indifferent between RFI/Fold and then also are indifferent between 4Bet/Call/Fold. Is it best to keep the % of each action with the whole range the same? Like UTG RFI must stay 17%, UTG vs MP Fold to 3Bet must stay 75%, etc. And then divide the hands that are mixed between pure strategies, like half of them always RFI, and half of them never RFI. Or do something like: Pure Fold if it's between 0-25%, Mixed if it's between 25-75%, Pure RFI if it's between 75%-100%?
Like 66 UTG for example, how do I simplify this?
I'd really like the make a preflopchart image like the one I already have with Monkersolver ranges but they're way more complex/mixed/detailed. Current Preflop Chart:
Nov. 16, 2020 | 1:40 a.m.
I guess it mostly depends on how many flushes vs how many AsX semibluffs CO has...
With AQss and A5ss-A2ss
Equity Win Tie
MP3 11.55% 0.84% 10.71% JJ-99, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo-ATo
CO 65.60% 42.74% 22.86% AQs+, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc
BU 22.86% 0.00% 22.86% AhKc
No wheel ace flushes
Equity Win Tie
MP3 17.66% 1.28% 16.38% JJ-99, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo-ATo
CO 47.36% 12.39% 34.97% AQs+, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc
BU 34.97% 0.00% 34.97% AhKc
Oops, clear fold it seems.
Nov. 12, 2020 | 1:46 a.m.
Nov. 12, 2020 | 1:33 a.m.
I'm just happy to see you try 500z. Just because you're taking your first steps there doesn't mean you can't play 200z anymore, there is no need to rush anything. It's not an all or nothing thing, you can cherry pick the right times to play 500z and still have 200z as your main game.
About pros and cons; at the end of our lives there are more things we regret not doing than there are things we regret doing. Even if you totally fail at 500z (which I doubt will happen)... at least you can't say you didn't try.
GL you beast
July 29, 2019 | 10:54 p.m.
It's clear that you've changed something. Your showdown and non-showdown graphs seem to have switched placed.
What percentage of regs do you think are countering your hyper exploitative strategy? I've been trying out some explo stuff myself and after a few weeks I've already seen some regs do really non-standard check backs with strong top pairs and overpairs on wet boards. Feels like I'm getting owned but I can't tell for sure.
If I was you I would try to check if your strategy works on the next stake. Either by playing or by mda. If it does, move up. If it doesn't, either stay at nl200 or adapt. I think that makes the most sense. I doubt that there is a lot of room for improving your winrate.
May 30, 2019 | 5:51 p.m.
I think those are a fold. With 100bb stacks I would probably shove but I think it's only slightly +EV. And if SB doesn't have a cold 4b/fold range it's -EV.
I don't think having a calling range is good as pfr vs cold 4bets but I'm not sure.
May 11, 2019 | 9:10 p.m.
CO: $525.70 (Hero)
SB lost and shows two pairs, Aces and Jacks.
CO wins $512.72
Rake is $3.00
May 11, 2019 | 3:44 p.m.
My worst case scenario has him playing all of his value like this (11 combo's) and only 4 bluffs, which also happen to have very high equity. I don't think that's too optimistic.
I get your point that it could be even worse (he only has value) but I don't think it's right to just assume that in this situation (flop raise and turn shove on wet board in 3bp btn vs sb). I don't think it's a situation that is severely underbluffed by default.
I think we can agree that it's a close and very villain dependant high variance spot. I posted it to get different opinions and I got what I wanted, so thanks :)
May 2, 2019 | 10:12 a.m.
You can never be 100% sure about an oponent's range, and if you could then there's no need to post and discuss it...
May 1, 2019 | 5:27 p.m.
Ya I'm not printing money by calling but folding seems worse. Have equilab result below.
May 1, 2019 | 5:25 p.m.
Thanks, that's interesting. Too hard to implement mixed flop strats for me though. Flop 3bet didnt seem like a good idea because his calling range to it has Axcc draws that dominate me and I make all potential low equity bluffs fold.
May 1, 2019 | 5:24 p.m.
No flop 3bets, if I would then this hand would probably be in it though.
May 1, 2019 | 5:21 p.m.
Equity Win Tie
BU 61.82% 61.82% 0.00% TT-99, 55, T9s, Qc8c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c
SB 38.18% 38.18% 0.00% KcJc
Worst case scenario, if he plays ALL 2p+ like this every time and never bluffs worse than a combo-draw.
Flop 3bet didnt seem like a good idea because his calling range to it has Axcc draws that dominate me and I make all potential low equity bluffs fold.
May 1, 2019 | 5:08 p.m.
SB: $218.76 (Hero)
SB wins and shows a flush, King high.
SB wins $436.52 BN wins $0.00
Rake is $3.00
April 30, 2019 | 8:35 p.m.
The way he played it looks like AKo/AQo with a spade often enough to be an easy call.
Overpair would rarely check flop + turn, two pair is rare and would probably just call river (his player profile is unlikely to turn SDV into bluff & it doesn't block your calling range), flushes are possible but would bet flop or turn very often unless it's specifically A2ss. I think this board is pretty good for the 3better so expect flushes to barrel on earlier streets most of the time.
I think it's case of "Hah, he can't have the nuts, ALL IN" with the As almost always.
April 25, 2019 | 3:24 p.m.
Unless he's a super loose whale QJ is less of a problem than missed (backdoor) flushdraws with a Q. Only one QcJc combo but at least 5 Qxss Qxcc.
Maybe block betting river would be a good option? Don't think anyone bluff raises river for less than half pot lol.
April 23, 2019 | 1:58 p.m.
I like preflop and flop but I'd either shove or check turn, because he's a rec I prefer shove. With that turn sizing you'll often have an awkward river decision (on any spade/club/K/Q/8/5/3).
As played I think check/fold is best OTR and check/call worst. People don't bluff rivers enough generally and recs are more often than not passive.
April 22, 2019 | 11:21 p.m.
I like how you played it except the river, I would fold. I think the river doesn't really improve your relative hand strength to the range that he is actually valuebetting with that sizing, so I think calling A5 is worse than AJ/AK for example because that blocks some straights and any AdX/QdX blocks backdoor flushes.
It's not a spot were he should be enthousiastic about overbet bluffing either because you can have many backdoor flushes with Ad and you can have AA. To even have a bluff on the river he has to have bet flop + turn with a Qx/Tx/air or turning a good top pair with Ad into a river overbet bluff.
March 28, 2019 | 6:48 p.m.
March 15, 2019 | 11:05 p.m.
7+ bb/100 at 200z is crazy in my opinion, these days.
I'd call 0-2 struggling, 2-4 decent, 4-6 good, 6-8 very good, and higher crushing. (including rakeback in the winrate)
Maybe you can just play some 500z now and then when you feel like you're in the zone (playing your A+ game), feel confident and the pool is softer than average, while keeping 200z your main game if moving up is such a big issue for your mental game.
I'm really curious how well you would do and don't understand what you're waiting for. I played almost 200k hands at nl200 it looks like I'm basically just a rakeback grinder at the moment and it fucking sucks.