It's clear that you've changed something. Your showdown and non-showdown graphs seem to have switched placed.
What percentage of regs do you think are countering your hyper exploitative strategy? I've been trying out some explo stuff myself and after a few weeks I've already seen some regs do really non-standard check backs with strong top pairs and overpairs on wet boards. Feels like I'm getting owned but I can't tell for sure.
If I was you I would try to check if your strategy works on the next stake. Either by playing or by mda. If it does, move up. If it doesn't, either stay at nl200 or adapt. I think that makes the most sense. I doubt that there is a lot of room for improving your winrate.
May 30, 2019 | 5:51 p.m.
I think those are a fold. With 100bb stacks I would probably shove but I think it's only slightly +EV. And if SB doesn't have a cold 4b/fold range it's -EV.
I don't think having a calling range is good as pfr vs cold 4bets but I'm not sure.
May 11, 2019 | 9:10 p.m.
CO: $525.70 (Hero)
CO wins and shows a full house, Kings full of Jacks.
CO wins $512.72
Rake is $3.00
May 11, 2019 | 3:44 p.m.
My worst case scenario has him playing all of his value like this (11 combo's) and only 4 bluffs, which also happen to have very high equity. I don't think that's too optimistic.
I get your point that it could be even worse (he only has value) but I don't think it's right to just assume that in this situation (flop raise and turn shove on wet board in 3bp btn vs sb). I don't think it's a situation that is severely underbluffed by default.
I think we can agree that it's a close and very villain dependant high variance spot. I posted it to get different opinions and I got what I wanted, so thanks :)
May 2, 2019 | 10:12 a.m.
You can never be 100% sure about an oponent's range, and if you could then there's no need to post and discuss it...
May 1, 2019 | 5:27 p.m.
Ya I'm not printing money by calling but folding seems worse. Have equilab result below.
May 1, 2019 | 5:25 p.m.
Thanks, that's interesting. Too hard to implement mixed flop strats for me though. Flop 3bet didnt seem like a good idea because his calling range to it has Axcc draws that dominate me and I make all potential low equity bluffs fold.
May 1, 2019 | 5:24 p.m.
No flop 3bets, if I would then this hand would probably be in it though.
May 1, 2019 | 5:21 p.m.
Equity Win Tie
BU 61.82% 61.82% 0.00% TT-99, 55, T9s, Qc8c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c
SB 38.18% 38.18% 0.00% KcJc
Worst case scenario, if he plays ALL 2p+ like this every time and never bluffs worse than a combo-draw.
Flop 3bet didnt seem like a good idea because his calling range to it has Axcc draws that dominate me and I make all potential low equity bluffs fold.
May 1, 2019 | 5:08 p.m.
SB: $218.76 (Hero)
SB wins and shows a flush, King high.
BN wins $0.00 SB wins $436.52
Rake is $3.00
April 30, 2019 | 8:35 p.m.
The way he played it looks like AKo/AQo with a spade often enough to be an easy call.
Overpair would rarely check flop + turn, two pair is rare and would probably just call river (his player profile is unlikely to turn SDV into bluff & it doesn't block your calling range), flushes are possible but would bet flop or turn very often unless it's specifically A2ss. I think this board is pretty good for the 3better so expect flushes to barrel on earlier streets most of the time.
I think it's case of "Hah, he can't have the nuts, ALL IN" with the As almost always.
April 25, 2019 | 3:24 p.m.
Unless he's a super loose whale QJ is less of a problem than missed (backdoor) flushdraws with a Q. Only one QcJc combo but at least 5 Qxss Qxcc.
Maybe block betting river would be a good option? Don't think anyone bluff raises river for less than half pot lol.
April 23, 2019 | 1:58 p.m.
I like preflop and flop but I'd either shove or check turn, because he's a rec I prefer shove. With that turn sizing you'll often have an awkward river decision (on any spade/club/K/Q/8/5/3).
As played I think check/fold is best OTR and check/call worst. People don't bluff rivers enough generally and recs are more often than not passive.
April 22, 2019 | 11:21 p.m.
I like how you played it except the river, I would fold. I think the river doesn't really improve your relative hand strength to the range that he is actually valuebetting with that sizing, so I think calling A5 is worse than AJ/AK for example because that blocks some straights and any AdX/QdX blocks backdoor flushes.
It's not a spot were he should be enthousiastic about overbet bluffing either because you can have many backdoor flushes with Ad and you can have AA. To even have a bluff on the river he has to have bet flop + turn with a Qx/Tx/air or turning a good top pair with Ad into a river overbet bluff.
March 28, 2019 | 6:48 p.m.
March 15, 2019 | 11:05 p.m.
7+ bb/100 at 200z is crazy in my opinion, these days.
I'd call 0-2 struggling, 2-4 decent, 4-6 good, 6-8 very good, and higher crushing. (including rakeback in the winrate)
Maybe you can just play some 500z now and then when you feel like you're in the zone (playing your A+ game), feel confident and the pool is softer than average, while keeping 200z your main game if moving up is such a big issue for your mental game.
I'm really curious how well you would do and don't understand what you're waiting for. I played almost 200k hands at nl200 it looks like I'm basically just a rakeback grinder at the moment and it fucking sucks.
March 14, 2019 | 1:16 p.m.
With taking a shot I basically just mean moving up stakes (with a 10BI stop loss or so). I usually did it when I had 50 buy-ins for the next stake.
Variance can really skew a 50k sample but you're never going to get a big sample without making one. You're winning over 8bb/100 at 200z over 1 million hands, it's very likely that you're profitable at 500z. You have one of the best winrates I've ever seen...
March 14, 2019 | 7:44 a.m.
I'd have to look up the math to do the calculations for this betsize but I can simplify the explanation with pot sized bets. (In the example the betsize is even bigger so IP can bluff even more hands.)
IP can bet a balanced range (make OOP indifferent to calling) by betting 2 bluffs for every value hand on the flop, 1 bluff per value hand on the turn and 0,5 bluffs for every value hand on the river.
If IP has 12 value hands he can bet 24 bluffs on the flop with a pot sized bet, but he only has 20 bluffs in the example, so OOP should always fold.
March 12, 2019 | 12:07 p.m.
IP can overbet as big as he wants when his valuebets can´t lose. IP can add the appropriate amount of bluffs so OOP can't profitably call or is indifferent between calling and folding.
If OOP can have the nuts it stops IP from overbetting as big as he wants because above a certain betsize he´s only going to get called by the nuts.
The consequence is that IP will have to bet smaller and can bet fewer bluffs.
->IP has to give up with more of his bluffs.
->OOP gets a bigger share of the EV with his bluffcatchers.
March 12, 2019 | 9:22 a.m.
I'd just call flop but I don't think raising is horrible. Against small cbets it's good to xr wider to deny equity to overcards (which is a big part of UTG's range if he's betting his whole range) but I think this hand just goes better into a x/c range. Hands like 66,55,22 would be better because they can turn more equity with OESDs and gutshots and need more protection against overcards.
I don't like the turn bet. UTG has all TT+ and more Jx than you. (offsuit broadways)
Check/calling would be great because the turn gives him more draws that he could bluff and might prevent him valuebetting QQ+ twice for value.
March 11, 2019 | 11:08 a.m.
Check/raise flop. I think this board is better for BU and he also has a lot of draws that he might bet/fold. Overbet turn if he checks back. Balance with combo draws and maybe some 8x.
Rest of the hand is good as long as you also have flushes in your range OTR with that betsize.