I think in theory this is indeed a call, because of the polarness of villian this combo is better then 22 and overpairs. Worst case scenario he has 16 value combos with all 8jo and 86s. Call if villian has around 13 bluffcombos. He only has to do it with Q8o. I think this is possible so i would call.
May 5, 2021 | 9:35 a.m.
May 3, 2021 | 1:12 p.m.
Thanks maco. Im going to implement simple postflop in this spot. If villian is unknown i will propably use the same concept as calling flop, bet with the backdoor low pp, and check without. If i have info im exploiting and using 100% bets or checks.
April 24, 2021 | 11:43 a.m.
I went in my database to look at some of the stuff u said.
Filters: Opened 22-55 on BTN, Could 4bet
The Actuallly winrate = -270 and the EV winrate = 220 but only on 105 hands. when I folded (63 times) winrate = -240. When i called (42 times) winrate =-232 (took the EV number). So without knowing the right postflop theory, I still have a better winrate when i call the 3bet. i think when i use the simple postflop strategy like Maco and u told me in the hand above, call with the right blocker i will make more money in this spot.
Is there also a simple postflopstragey when they check to us? For example we have 55 and villian is checking on us on K72r. Do we X,bet small? What about other boards?
Do u want to share your stats on this spot, so i can compare? Or do u want to keep your stats private? Anyway thanks again, already learned a lot to look at this.
April 24, 2021 | 9:31 a.m.
BN: $51.67 (Hero)
Rake is $0.75
April 21, 2021 | 3:56 p.m.
Villian potentially has only 3 natural bluffs here the AQo with the A heart. AJo with heart he already folds pre. His raise contains around 10 combos for value here (i count all 77 and some flushes. So it comes down if he is raising his Qq jj tt for protection, not sure if he is doing this, or should do this.
April 20, 2021 | 9:22 a.m.
Inresting spot. U hit the flop more then him, so he could range check here because he doesnt have so much jj tt as u. Because of your nut advantage u could start to bluff this on the turn, to let him fold some aq and ak.
April 20, 2021 | 7:56 a.m.
What do u think about the flopstrategy. Im not sure, hero has all overpairs, but flop is connecting more with villian he has all the sets and draws he can put pressure with on this flop. Do u think a range check is better on this flop, and then defend with polar range? So in this example we X/R. On turn we follow through if A,K,Q comes because this gives us new FE, because its more in our range.
April 17, 2021 | 9:24 a.m.
SB: $102.00 (Hero)
BB lost and shows a pair of Nines.
SB wins $101.86
Rake is $2.00
April 14, 2021 | 3:18 p.m.
April 12, 2021 | 1:13 p.m.
BB: $52.98 (Hero)
April 12, 2021 | 1:02 p.m.
CO: $67.92 (Hero)
April 7, 2021 | 6:29 p.m.
Great analysis. I will add some combo counting. Curious if u agree with my combos. I think villian has around 15 value combos AA,KK,AK,99 (sometimes). This means we need to find 8 bluffs combos. He comes to river with AQ AJ AT A5 QJ 87 76 diamonds + probably 3 combos of QJs. This would be 10 combos. Its not a lot but i still think he can bluff 8 of them.
April 6, 2021 | 1:30 p.m.
Ok I see now my blockbet river strategy is not good. But dont know about the exploitative standpoint to size down on turn. If we are targeting overpairs isnt it better to bet bigger on turn? I think its better to get value the quicker we can.
April 5, 2021 | 7:08 p.m.
Preflop u can raise 87s pre flop sometimes.
Flop great raise, villian bets polar here so we want to bet polar here also with value and some bluffs (gutshots,oesd). We want to built the pot.
Turn. I would bet bigger with our range, especially this hand.
River i think blockbet/fold is the best option. Get value from overpairs.
April 5, 2021 | 1:27 p.m.
Hi aroma, this is pure variance. We can not make conclusions out of this. If u can post this graph with 50k hands + it can be usefull. Can u post that one? than we can have a discussion about it. Even then its not bad to have a negative red line, but u can use it as a tool, to look if u lack aggresion or not.
April 5, 2021 | 1:19 p.m.
SB: $93.44 (Hero)
Rake is $0.75
April 2, 2021 | 3:56 p.m.
Did not expect that either. Do u think that it has to do with his bluff picking? His bluffs should contain of hands with a lot of equity? For example J9h/d has around 40% equity against AK.
And ofcours the points u alread made. points 1,2 and 5.
April 2, 2021 | 3:49 p.m.
Thanks for the wel structured post Raoul. With the points u bringing up, i think i agree we can let this go.
The guy ended up with 56 of hearts. So that is another reason to bluffcatch with Tx +, because we are not beating all of his bluffs with AK.
April 2, 2021 | 12:45 p.m.
CO: $52.25 (Hero)
March 29, 2021 | 7:04 p.m.
BB wins and shows a pair of Aces.
BB wins $16.75
Rake is $0.79
March 16, 2021 | 4:09 p.m.
SB: $25.00 (Hero)