Personally, I would lead 40%, if he calls, bet 75% or 130% on turn, we have a massive range advantage and cash easily push our edges. He is likely to fold over pairs to our turn bet, should he call, we can give up on river, or empty the clip, depending on the draws that missed or got there.
With the specific run out of this hand, I would bet 40% OTF, bet 130% on turn and shove river, as he has moreu flush draws that call(and miss) than you do, so you are going to make profit if you take this route.
What do you think?
April 3, 2019 | 12:55 a.m.
partypoker - 30000/60000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 5 players
SB: 52.14 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 20)
BB: 30.46 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 10.09 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
CO: 23.51 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 26.25, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 94)
Hero (BTN): 15.3 BB
Final Table of $27.50 Bounty Hunter
5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has Ks Jc with 15.17BB remaining.
My bounty was 3rd out of 5 remaining
is this a shove, yes or no?
When I put this into ICMizer it shows that I make 0.75% profit and that my bust probability is 9.61%.
If I give put their reshoving ranges to 22+/A7s+/K9s+QTs+J10s+ATo+/KQo I have 39.83% equity, however, that is against their reshoving range, they do plenty of folding as this equals to about 18.85%.
So assuming that these ranges are correct, which I do think they are. I am getting called roughly 37.70% of the time(roughly I know). So I'm making 2.12 62.3% of the time and risking 15.17BB to obtain that, whereas I'm called I have 39.83% equity to win 32.46 (disregarding for the moment the possibility where the SB shoves and the BB overcalls, which I think is unlikely due to ICM considerations for both players)
So the overall conclusion (in my opinion) is:
62.3% I can steal the pot and win 2.12BB = +3.4 BB/100
37.70% I get called and have 39.83% to win 32.46BB = -2.25BB/100
so out of 100%:
62.3% +3.4 = 5.45
37.70% -2.25 = -5.68
So in these raw calculations (which I am not 100% sure about that I did correctly, but I do believe so and this excludes ICM but I do not think that that is super important as we are not in a position to fold to ladder up and this is a bounty, so even less fold equity as stacks get shallower) it seems that I made a losing shove.
HOWEVER, after these long calculations, what do you guys think? both about the calculations and about my thinking and my potential shove?
are you shoving here?
Hope this was an interesting read and perhaps you can respond with your views
thanks for reading people :)
April 2, 2019 | 3:17 p.m.
That sounds plausible, however...
You said you think villain is capable of firing all the way with poor hands, there are certain hands where you can easily 'hand him the ropes', however, on a AKQ flush draw board, when you have 22BB left, that is hardly the time to do so, you're hand can use some protection rather than using it as a bluff catcher. I think, in a hand like this: shove the flop, if he is as agressive as you said: he ain't folding AJ or A10, so we want to get called by those and we can protect our hand to the rest of his range.
April 2, 2019 | 3:16 p.m.
I quite disagree with what you mention here. I think you are being led by other factors rather than logic, if I may say so.
PRF, yea, calling is optimal, plus its an easy call when BB shoves and CO folds, we want to give him the opportunity to shove on us, with a broader range.
On the flop, there is 10BB in the pot post-bet, giving us 2.2x pot, on a board of AKQ, with flush draw, you could call or shove, I think you should be balanced between those two around 50% in either. Reasoning being: we want to deny our opponent equity and taking the pot, which is around 46% of our stack is sufficient enough. there are so many turns that either kill our action or make us lose the hand, hence, my preference lies with shoving flop and taking it down.
April 2, 2019 | 10:52 a.m.
personally I think that on the flop it should either be a lead or a checkraise. the range advantage is such that a lead on the flop would be easily +ev, leading is a strategy underused by players. checkraising is a valid option as well, we are out of position and want to take control of the pot, both players are deepstacked enough for this to work. People tend to overfold to checkraises so this, combined by all turns, apart from A/K are favourable for our range, including all diamonds which creates a backdoor flush draw.
April 2, 2019 | 10:45 a.m.
Thanks for your in depth answer Cobbv.
regarding setmining, there aren't really set rules for this however, my interpretation and please discuss on this bit:
- if we are 35BB+ and it is a min-2.5x OPR and we are either (!) in position to the raiser or we are in the blinds I decide to call. this is because we hit a set 1/7 (happy days, let's take him to valuetown) but if we miss, we often have overcards on the board. But since my flatcalling range has most suited connectors, has suited gappers, broadways, low pairs etc. etc. I can represent almost all board types, where my opponent will have a harder time ensuring a wide board coverage.
I.e. we have 55 in CO and HJ opens to 2.4. we are 37BB and are effective.
We decide to flatcall - BTN and SB fold, BB calls as well.
Flop is 892 rainbow, SB checks - HJ checks(quite often here, terrible board to CB) - we can easily take over betting lead and take it down most of the time with a double/triple barrel because this crushes our CC range.
Your second point, regarding the range percentages - very interesting. But as we need to have both bluffs and valuehands in our 4betting range. With one option as having small pairs in our 4B range rather than ragged aces or other blockers(as these hand have decent R and are generally speaking +EV)
What would your alternative 4betting range exist out of?
my 'usual' 4betting range:
As value: AA/KK/QQ/AKs
As bluff: 22/33/44/55/66
I have one additional bluff in my 4betting range, because I feel that so far people do not fight back as hard as they should, previously I had 22-55 but I added 66 because nobody was exploiting me( so far.)
March 15, 2017 | 10:29 a.m.
As his 3B is so small, your 13Bb shove will bring enough fold equity. As he can quite easily exploit a super aggressive UTG player with a light and small 3B on button.
in short - reshove. we are not playing to come in 9th we want to win the tournament as the big money is up top. yes, ICM matters, but this is such a profitable spot that we should shove.
March 14, 2017 | 8:48 a.m.
I like your play throughout all streets, except for the river.
On such a 'completing-river' as it completes most draws(except flushes) we shouldn't bet our hand, no worse hand is ever calling us.
Now it comes down to what you perceive your opponent to do, you say you don't have a lot of stats, but how far from break are we? the closer to the break the more likely he could bluff, where is he from etc. etc. so checking on river for sure, and than deciding based on sizing, pot odds, and the answer to the previously mentioned questions: whether you will call or fold. as you don't have the A of hearts you don't block the most likely draw. which is a good thing.
March 14, 2017 | 8:29 a.m.
Thank you for your in depth post.
I am going to pick out a few of your points raised:
- OPR-C small pairs i.e. 22-66. I don't fully understand why you would want to call here, opponent is 40 BB deep, if standard OPR to 2.4 his 3B will be to roughly 7.2BB which means that there is roughly 16.5(inc. antes) in the pot when going to flop with villain at 32B effective, at this rate you will never have a profitable setmine.
What I suggest, turn your small pairs into 4B bluffs, if he 5bets - fold them but he will fold a high percentage and if he calls, you always have a rough 1/7-1/8 odds to flop a set. A much higher EV
I missed whether you are referring to online poker or live poker. If you are talking about online poker your assumptions regarding reshoving and 3Betting are correct. if you are referring to live poker - you can assume that a most, especially weaker, opponents will not reshove wide enough and will fold to a lower amount of BB than they would online. So if you are playing live- you can open up your OPR range by quite a significant percentage.
Just 2 comments, your thoughts ?
March 14, 2017 | 8:08 a.m.
I think with queens, we can call it a cooler if he has AA/KK, because the hand it too strong to fold. so I would say we should take it, hoping villain has JJ, and he could also fold AKo if he decided to 3B it, because we are 4betting into an UTG+1 raise and a UTG+2 3B we have a totally capped range, thoughts ?
and you're welcome
Feb. 24, 2017 | 12:06 p.m.
I think that CC PRF is meh, an all in shove is spewing chips(his range is QQ+ and AKs, so only against a few hands you are flipping, the rest are crushing you) and folding is a bit tight, but with those stats, there is a very valid argument for folding PRF.
Now, if, for some reason, you decide to call PRF - the bomb on the flop is a fold, there is only one hand that you want to be up against and that is AcKc, FYI, you are a slight dog against AcKc, so this is a very unfortunate hand, but I think you can/must fold PRF. And definitely a fold on the flop, you're just hardly ever good here.
P.S. what I usually do - is assume that I have an edge over my opponents, with this JJ(even though it is a strong hand) the way it has played out PRF with a 3.5x 3B the edge our hand has is minimal, if there at all. and I tend to avoid these high-variance spots when deep in tournaments, why take the risk? let it go and wait for a better spot.
Feb. 22, 2017 | 9:44 a.m.
I think that in any situations apart from this one it is a call and let's call it a cooler and end of tournament.
However, we are on the final table and there is one player on 10BB and one on roughly 15BB, I would take the more cautious line on flop and CB and when he sizes the turn up for a shove on river he eliminates most of his draws, because he can semi-bluff, his flush draws, with a smaller size.
So imo, CB flop and call both turn and river unless when he sizes up for a river shove and it that case fold, simply because of ICM.
Feb. 22, 2017 | 8:52 a.m.
Personally, I disagree with Hex777, this is because he CC'd twice and when he called the 3B he closed the action PRF, this leads me to assume that he does not have AA-KK-QQ in his range and as we block JJ we can exclude that from his range as well.
When it comes to the rest of his range:
- He played the hand quite fishy so I think he will call too much, so I will include 66's to 1010 as his pairs. and than Q10s+, KJs+, and A10o to AQo because we can assume that he would 3B AQs+ in both situations(the initial CC and calling of 3B).
This range has got you pretty crushed, the only hands you beat are the random Q10's and low pocket pairs, and they aren't calling a value bet. But than we would have to ask if he would play these bluffs as he played the turn - imo: unlikely but possible.
So, I think checkback and go for 'maximum value' which in this situation equals to: minimum loss
What are your thoughts?
Feb. 22, 2017 | 8:42 a.m.
you're welcome lad. Keep posting these hands, very helpful to a lot more people than just the one asking and the one asking. more people will watch it and not reply, but they will still learn from it. thanks for that
Feb. 17, 2017 | 1:32 p.m.
I am very interested in joining this group, I grind the low stakes varying from $3-$22. I have put a lot of hours into poker studying and am currently boosting my bankroll. I would love to join a Discord/Skype group. If you are willing to allow me to join, kindly reach out to me via message Renzilla.
Feb. 15, 2017 | 10:42 a.m.
imo this hands plays itself, even though you have no fold equity because of your bounty, this is a snap shove
Feb. 15, 2017 | 10:04 a.m.
I would suggest that both options in the BB are fine.
Personally, I would prefer the 3B shove over his OR. Because he is aggro he will fold a high percentage of his OPR.
If he is extremely passive post flop(doesn't cbet enough/folds to donk bets/folds to a bet on turn after CB) it is a good opportunity to defend and donk bet range preferential flops/or checkraise all in on range preferential flops when you back gutshots/backdoors.
Would like to hear your thoughts.
Feb. 13, 2017 | 10:20 a.m.
The theory/mathmethics behind bounty tournament do not change as the bounty/value of the tournament increases.
As I understand it, you are familiar with the rules/guidelines when it comes to hunting bounties/playing bounty tournaments. Play according to those same rules.
On another note, I also understand that this tournament is of more 'subjective' value to you, because of this I would like to suggest:
- You CAN decide to play a bit more cautiously and take less swings(when you have a pocket pair and you do not want to flip and risk your tournament life. in some situations you can decide to play more cautiously to ensure that you risk less of your tournament. (even though!! this does mean that you will let some profitable spots slip, which is not recommended)
As a final tip: try to get comfortable with the tournaments you play to ensure that you will go back to taking the profitable spots in tournaments.
Would love to hear your opinion.
Feb. 13, 2017 | 10:16 a.m.
Allow me to start with stating: good thinking process bud.
I think it depends on you being very honest with yourself.
There is one question and one question only that matters here:
"How important is a mincash to you" how much is that $1050-$1175 worth to you. Is it a lot? than go for the fold.
Because don't misunderstand me: shoving is a +EV spot, but realise that you have 0.0% fold equity against this type of player(I'm exaggerating). but he is not going to BetFold.
That is an important thing to consider, you get the odds to shove, yes it is +EV, but you are putting your tournament life at risk.
And that is the only thing that matters there bud; how important is the mincash to you.
Your thoughts ?
Oct. 11, 2016 | 11:38 a.m.
I want to start with saying thanks for the great response. by all means disagree with my plays, I made a few mistakes in this hand for sure.
my most interesting point is this hand is the QQ/1010 shove you said on the river. let me give a bit of background, I play the £50-£200 live tourneys and have a good ROI there. the players there are not betting to protect, more betting because they have a hand. these are players that have played for years without spending a second thinking about what they are actually doing, theory wise.
To return to the QQ/1010, in my experience, the level of players lack the ability to valuebet in these spots, I think that most players would checkback the trips there or bet 40K because they don't really know what to do. the players there aren't considering how much they have behind after a bet often enough. Hence I was pretty confident that he doesn't have those types of hands.
Why he cant have J9s or Q10. Quite simply, this tourney sees plenty limping and minraising, nobody open raises 4x, 3-3.5x is considered a very large raise. so he polarises, without knowing that he is doing that(I think), his range to the nuts or nothing. taking all that in account, for sure I might have made some mistakes, absolutely possible.
But, I think that in these types of tournament, one of the greatest weaknesses, people like us (who understand the game and try to improve) have 1 weakness and the greatest pitfall of all: yes, analyse a hand, its going to hand you so much(!). but don't overanalyse, I learned this quickly in. Because, for over analysing a hand you need an opponent who knows what he is doing.
Same goes for micro/low stakes online poker btw.
And yes, I ended up shipping the tourney. :)
Let me know your thoughts
Oct. 11, 2016 | 11:33 a.m.
Could you clarify which 23 combo's that we 'beat' are going to call us as all A10 and lower are folding on riverbet, or you're playing one of the biggest idiots of poker ever. which is not happening these days, just bet 30-35% and fold to raise. as you said, but not that many hands are calling that we are ahead of.
Oct. 7, 2016 | 2:08 p.m.
Ralphy, thanks for the response. I think that you are making a fair point, pre-flop I should indeed 3-bet fold but, to be perfectly honest, I made the assumption of him being a bit "fishy" and that resulting in him not realising what ICM is or how close to the money we actually were.
That may be a faulty assumption and perhaps I should've indeed 3B-F but I thought that I had a PF edge against him so I basically wanted to play smallball(very possibly a mistake from my part)
On the turn/river I indeed had reads, on his play but also live tells of (what I interpreted as) insecurity.
What are your thoughts on that explanation? mainly the PRF decision
Oct. 7, 2016 | 1:43 p.m.
£110 tourney. 2 of the money. I was 2nd/3rd in chips with my stack being close to 175K. I’m in SB with Ad8s. Blinds were 1500/3000
Folds to CO, pretty loose slightly fishy player. who raises to 12.000
Button folds, I CC and BB also calls after tanking for quite a while whether to raise or not.
Flop comes 10h8d4s
I check, BB tank checks(whether to lead or not) and CO cbets for 18K
I decide to call because there are plenty of draws/backdoors for him to cbet on these boards. And the BB folds
Turn Qh. Bringing extra flush draws/straight draws. I check and CO bets 29K.
At this point I am going through his hand ranges, and none of his opening/cbetting hands really connected with this board, the only two apparent hands at this point is AA/KK/QQ. However, I think that AA/KK are becoming a bit scared of this board and a slightly inexperienced player wouldn’t go for the larger betsize to protect but either checkback or make it a smaller bet to be able to checkback on the river. And I think that QQ is unlikely, because I don’t think that he would bet over half pot with trip queens, but more likely to make it somewhere around 22-25K.
Hence the only two realistic hands he can have, in my opinion, are AA/KK and I already block an ace.
I decide to call. (at this point I have around 110K behind and he has around 60K behind)
The river is the A of spades. And I decide to check and he shoves all in for his last 60K.
Now, which hands are left in his range that aren’t scared of this river. The only hand that really got there was KJ and AA. My reasoning to remove AA from his range completely, was because that the BB wanted to raise preflop, he wanted to raise into 2 bigger stacks and personally I think a lot of his range is AK-AQ-AJ-A10-A9 hence so many aces are blocked by him, removing AA entirely of the range of my opponent.
The only hand that is truly left that is not scared of this river is KJ: but would KJ cbet the flop like that? Online, yes, in a very good tournament, yes. But this is a £110 casino tournament in London. The average skill level here is pretty low, which is why I am grinding these tournaments. In this tournament I don’t think he would have cbet any hand but KhJh because that is the only hand that makes sense to play this way. Apart from this? KK/QQ/JJ/1010 all those hands aren’t likely going to value shove, probably just checkback, especially as we are this close to the money.
After taking my time going through all of this in my mind I came to the conclusion that this was a hand that in the long run I would be profitable in. I made the call, and he shoved 99 for a triple barrel bluff.
What are your thoughts of this hand?
Oct. 4, 2016 | 3:56 p.m.
Basically, Just try to fold your bad aces from early positions, try to keep your Aces range from UTG to UTG +2 above A9o(or even higher). And if you play: make it a larger OPR. Because a 2x raise, opens the door for a very successful 3bet from the button (55+, suited connectors, broadways) can all 3bet u profitable. So if you decide to play it: make it 2.5-3x OPR.
My main advice is: just fold your bad aces, it's not worth the hassle, especially when you are 25BB deep and early position.
The shove on the flop is indeed standard.
Any thoughts ?