For the second hand 98s, curious to see what happens if you add a block size on the river. I'm pretty sure that on a flush completing river, OOP is gonna use the block size at quite a high frequency. I'm really interested in whether 98s goes into the block size or the allin size. I'm guessing it goes into the shove, with this combo unblocking the Ax broadway that calls a small size and blocking the two pair call downs for the shove size even though it has no blockers to the flush.
Oct. 26, 2019 | 7:17 p.m.
The second hand is probably an okay call with your hand. Don't know if villain builds an overbetting range on turn (which he probably has). If so, I think most of his 76 combos are gonna be overbets (except for 7h6h and mixing sizes with 76 one heart) and sets are probably mixing between the sizes (the ones with heart will probably be more frequent overbets), but I suspect the population to be overbetting more of these value than optimal given the wet nature of the board. I also think a lot of the overbet bluffs are obviously some hearts, but also hands like 68o, 78o, Qd6d, which I think a reg can find. Therefore, given his turn sizing, I do think he is mostly repping K10 and A10 specifically on the river, and blocking a 10 just blocks so much value. Bluffs are hard to find, but I won't be surprised if he took this line with Qs9s (unblocking the bdfd that fold on turn) and some 6x combos that decided to follow through on the river.
So I think this is a call if he has an overbetting range on turn, leaving his river value to be only K10 and A10, then having a 10 is just good enough to call.
Oct. 21, 2019 | 9:48 p.m.
At 27:00, I think from PIO Qs is usually a high frequency bluff on the river. Given the recreational SB, the strongest of his value range is probably AQ with Ah or Qh, or Qs (that didn't 4bet pre) with a heart. Blocking both significantly, I think Qs is probably the best bluff here and we do have a ton of A high flushes that we can balance with.
Oct. 18, 2019 | 6:08 p.m.
I did not run the hand between Berkey and Adelstein through pio, but i think what Paul missed in his amazing analysis is the effective stack size. I would imagine if this were 100bb effective instead of close to 250bb effective, the SPR will subsequently be very different and hence the the tree. As we all probably know, if we get deeper, one pair hands go way down in value, and the potential to make a good hand goes way up in value like PLO, which explains the merge betting and the OOP choosing to call hands that can improve on rivers rather than hands currently ahead in absolute hand strength. If this were 100BB effective, I would imagine many OOP overpairs to check shove turn for equity denial, which leads to IP betting way fewer combos of hands like Q10 which really wants to realize its equity; since the SPR is still relatively large in the actual situation, these hands are not worried about OOP check shoving and losing their equity.
July 20, 2019 | 8:07 p.m.
I think realistically people are not shoving AKo, maybe positions CO, BU, SB probably will, but not in those positions. When I looked in the solver for these positions, SB range is AQs+, Qs+, KQs, and mixing half Js, half A5s, and 10% frequency of some other Axs as well as some KJs, K10s. Honestly, I would just fold my AKo, cuz ur perceived range is not like this, I think the only perceived weaker hand u have is AQs, so it’s doesn’t make sense to shove AKo which has minimum fold equity and always behind when called when he only invested like 2BB
May 21, 2019 | 2:50 a.m.
congrats on triton multiple final tables
May 19, 2019 | 2:34 p.m.
This hand just happened in Triton's high roller series 1million HKD buyin main event. With 4 remaining players including Mikita, one with 4BB stack and another with 20BB stack, Mikita with 30BB limp SB with AJo and Kenny with 65BB raises 4.5x with 7s, Mikita reshoves with AJo. Is this a good play with the ICM, even if Kenny can raise there with like 20% of hands?
May 10, 2019 | 4:06 p.m.
At 6:00, ur 3 betting range from the BB against UTG seems quite different from most people. I thought it was supposed to look like something like this. Did u get urs from PokerSnowie, as it does quite like the suites Axs?
April 29, 2019 | 7:16 p.m.
Hey guys, I was wondering if any of you had the same problem. As expected, I have the total hands stats in my first row of the hud. However, I have around 60k hands played, but the total hands stat shows only 19k (same when I click on the popup). And this is not because I played at different stakes so it only shows the hands for the one stake that I play, because I have more than 19k hands at each stake. Do u guys know how to fix it? Thanks, it would be great help!
April 27, 2019 | 8:53 p.m.
It’s important to always note ur 4bet calling range BTN vs BB. For example, preflop I flat As 100% here in these positions, but shove 10s-Qs each around 50% frequency, AKo 85% and Ks 15%. Therefore, I think 10s, Js, 109s, A9s, in these spots will basically pure raise/shove this flop as well as mixing in shoves with heart combos, so to make his AKo call it off indifferent or perhaps losing EV. It’s umportant to note that in low SPR situations, these top pair/ small over pair hands need to protect equity while As, Ks, and sets retain equity quite well. While u do run into over pair quite often, but it’s important to consider that as an overall strategy u put lots of pressure when he does have overcards and are forced to make tough decisions.
April 12, 2019 | 2:38 a.m.
First! Just finished watching ur 10 hands PLO on youtube XD. I would guess the one ur 98% confident about what u did with top full house that u went with the check raise, unblocking the flop fd and not really getting called by worse that won't value bet itself.
April 8, 2019 | 6:47 p.m.
I think u talked about 3betting/4betting hands like K6s over K8s or A10o over AJo is a mistake a couple times. But as u said it urself, this is due to the blocking and ublocking of the folding range. I think it's also worth mentioning that for example K6 and K8, their differences in terms of either flopping a pair of 6s and 8s or flopping a K with a 6 or 8 kicker really shouldn't affect the EV of the two hands; therefore, it doesn't seem implausible that the seemingly small blocker effect could reasonably affect the equilibrium to some extent.
April 6, 2019 | 5:52 a.m.
Love ur vids! I'm always curious about how u actually execute the mixing of such complex ranges, given that these ranges are all mixed to like 5 decimals. Do u actually look at it when u play zoom, or do u have like a sort of simplified range when u r playing?
March 21, 2019 | 12:33 a.m.
As played, I think the river is a comfortable fold. He has to be pure air balling or bluffing with hands like 45s or 67s from the flop, which at 25nl I would assume that's fairly unlikely. Flop check I would say some what standard, turn with out As in ur hand, probably mix between shove and call. It is important to realize ur 3betting range from the BB. Most people have a linear 3betting range from SB, but still too heavy a value line from the BB. Therefore, if ur BB 3bet strat includes hands like 106s, 107s, 108s, A5s, Q5s, K5s, 67s, u still get to the river with a comfortably amount of flushes, as well as other over pairs that contains a spade.
March 13, 2019 | 6:07 p.m.
I'm just curious about having the Ad is bad, since pio suggests IP give up a lot of their bluffs with the Ad because it blocks so much of the OOP's folding range on the river. So I'm not sure about why exactly Ad is bad.
Dec. 19, 2018 | 5:53 p.m.
I'm pretty sure this is a call. First, As is very important, because ur flop cbet forces folds some weaker A highs with no backdoor flush draw, for example, Ac8c probably has to be a fold whereas As8s is a clear call, so villian has much fewer Ax combos on the river. Also, u block a lot of the Ax suited two pair combos with As. Secondly, u do have the blocker to a straight, which is basically one combo, but still relevant. Also, u unblock his flop floats, high card with spades around the J, or any missed club draws. However, I do think turn should be a bet because of the equity increase for OOP on the A turn, ur turn sizing should probably be split into an overbet and 1/3 pot range, and A8 should probably be in 1/3 pot range at a very high frequency. It should probably be played as 1/3 pot turn, and X/C this river.
Dec. 16, 2018 | 7:09 p.m.
At 31:48, I believe the reason why we want to have Q of spade to be calling and K of spade to be folding is that on the turn, K high flush draws are played as a check by OOP whereas Q high flush draws are kept barreling. Therefore, on the river, most of the flushes that OOP has is Q high flushes, so Q of spades block value. Another thing is that on the turn, Q9o gut shot becomes a pure check with and without a spade. Therefore, with the Q of spade, we are not blocking any bluffs on the river. However, K10 with the K of spades is played as a high frequency barrel with its two pair and gut shot equity, and on the river spade, K10 with the K of spade is played as a shove, so for IP K of spades not only unblocks very little value but also blocks some bluffs.
Dec. 14, 2018 | 6:38 p.m.
Didn’t look at PIO, but I didn’t understand why at 12:55 u said u would rather bluff low diamonds. I think you block quite a bit of his potentially calling range (specifically J10, 109 with a club) with like a 2/3 bet(potentially ur sizing for your 10 high+ flushes and maybe a different one for representing full house+), representing hands like J10o with a club that could easily have played this way, putting his low pocket pairs with a club in a pretty tough spot. I don’t think it matters having J10 or 67 specifically anymore, because his gut shots without a club are folded on the turn anyways, so imo Jh10h only block value and no potential folds.
Dec. 11, 2018 | 6:06 p.m.
From the couple of hands I saw u posted, u seem to be playing more of your hand strength than your range. I believe BB has all AK, AJs+, 10s-Ks (Maybe flats As pre). However, u r gonna flat a majority of your AK preflop, I believe ur 4 bet range is mostly AKs, Ks+, Ax suited bluffs (guessing A2s-A5s), and Idk if you mix AQo has a 4bet bluff (which I think is bad since it's likely going to be dominated by his AK portion). Therefore, on a Q35 board, all ur bluffs now improve their equity quite significantly and ur value hands are still strong. Although he has 100% Qs and u have almost none, his range is significantly diluted by his AK portion. So on this flop, I would imagine pio suggests a high frequency betting with a small sizing on the flop. With ur exact hand, pio takes the line B/C/shove (turn is a mix, but preferred check, if bet then always follow through on the river).
Dec. 7, 2018 | 5:30 p.m.
I think this is a relatively easy fold. Go ahead exploit me if you like, but people are just always calling QJ, flushdraws. In equilibrium, this is probably a mix btw call and fold, but people are just not shoving draws into like a AK range that they feel they will always get called.
Dec. 7, 2018 | 3:53 p.m.
I think river relatively easy fold. I think this spot goes like this, our offsuite Jx with a heart is gonna be a call; our combos like 46s, 74s is probably a reshove as a bluff; we get here with a lot of flushes, so A and K high flush is probably a reshove for value and other flushes are a call, but I believe we don't get here with a lot of full houses, maybe 6s with a heart or 7s and 4s with a club that we only call the turn as we block some of villain's continues (the other set combos are basically always gonna be 3betting turn I assume, along with some bluffs like 8d9d or Kd5d that are folding the turn to villains 4 bet shove, and if called shoving on a lot of blank rivers as we unblock a lot of villains missed draws).
Dec. 3, 2018 | 6:33 p.m.
The Qs hand around 8:00 is definitely very interesting. While watching, I was quite surprised about the fold, but in hindsight, I think it’s actually quite reasonable. I think MP’s range is basically AKo, AKs (probably AQs is a fold because it is likely to be dominated by the BU cold 4), and 10s+, if MP does play this spot as 100% flat or fold. I think BU’s range is likely very small percentage of small Ax suited bluffs, and Js+, AQs+, AKo, if BU plays this spot as 4-bet or fold. Finally, hero’s range actually should be the widest. I believe Pete has a flatting range in the CO facing UTG/MP open, so Hero’s original 3bet here should be more polarized, hands like KJs may be played as a flat instead of 3bet, a hand imo should be folded to this 4bet squeeze if played originally as a 3bet due to domination. However, hands in the Hero’s 3betting range I believe are most Ax suites hands, 45s-78s, 78s-KQs(probably a mix between 3betting and calling), Js+, AQo+. Thus, hero’s calling 4bet range imo should be suited connectors 67-J10s, AJs+, AKo+, Js+, so hero should technically have the most flushes in this spot. Thus, Qs without a spade should be close to the bottom of Hero’s range, as AKo with one spade may actually have more equity against villain’s ranges. Therefore, in retrospect, I think pete’s fold is actually quite good, as Pete does have a lot of better hands to continue here, calling all flushes, Js+ with a spade, Ks+, and AKo with a spade. I’m not sure, but this is how I interpret this spot.