Tom Willetts's avatar

Tom Willetts

104 points

I think flatting is fine, if BB is nitty he's not peeling a gutshot OOP.
On the 18 turns thing - you don't like an A or K? I would have thought an A was the best turn in the deck, but maybe I misunderstood.
Otherwise think I'd be very unhappy but probably call. Hopefully he has A9.

March 28, 2020 | 9:14 p.m.

You tend not to see to many regs without a full stack, so I'm fairly sure SB is going to be calling too much but I take the point. I agree with the comment about sizing too, it's pretty small for this board in my opinion.

On the river in-game I was more thinking that if I check he might check back AQ but I'll miss value from AK, KQ. If I check and he shoves I probably hate it but have to call anyway because of stoopid game theory.

March 28, 2020 | 9:05 p.m.

Hand History | Tom Willetts posted in NLHE: NL10 Bad river - check or shove anyway?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.47
SB: $8.35
BB: $11.61 (Hero)
UTG: $10.05
MP: $11.21
CO: $20.01
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is BB with 9 Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20
Flop ($0.90) K J 8
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $0.50, SB folds, Hero calls $0.50
Turn ($1.90) K J 8 T
Hero checks, MP bets $0.80, Hero raises to $3.00, MP calls $2.20
River ($7.90) K J 8 T K
Hero bets $7.81 and is all in, MP calls $7.41 and is all in

March 27, 2020 | 3:48 p.m.

Somebody didn’t read the hand ;)

Oct. 31, 2017 | 1:57 p.m.

Everything said here about 1/1 is equally true of 1/2 (especially at the vic) with the added bonus that rake is half the size and the players are generally more gambly/fun and less incredibly old and dull

Oct. 31, 2017 | 1:56 p.m.

You think there's a lot of value to be had vs a really tight 3bettor on the flop? He will very rarely have KQ, I can't get 3 streets vs JJ and villain probably doesn't 3bet AQ 100%, so I might be just value cutting straight away

Oct. 5, 2017 | 2:56 p.m.

I see your point, and it's been a while since I played a lot of 100nl so maybe my assumptions are off. But I would think that there are villains who will fold 55 on the flop, or shove turn with some parts of that range.

After thinking about it a bit more I think I might have been constructing a river range backwards (I can have a ton of bluffs so he can call a lot so I can value bet wider...)

On the other hand if villain folds all 77, 88 and 9x the bluffs in my range are profitable as your calling range is 23 combos even if they all get to the river but you're folding 30 combos of 77+ (I moved J9s to calling range since I assume that was a mistake).

Oct. 5, 2017 | 7:23 a.m.

You have better hands to bluff with like QsQ, KsX or JsJ etc and it needs to work way more often if you're chopping (checking wins a bigger % pot vs his range), so Ax seems like a bad bluff.

I think it's too thin to value bet as you would need calls from Kx which seems unlikely.

Clear check imo

Oct. 4, 2017 | 10:07 p.m.

Hand History | Tom Willetts posted in NLHE: KK facing weird line
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $12.18
SB: $10.53
BB: $10.42
UTG: $21.36
MP: $18.78 (Hero)
CO: $17.99
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP with K K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB raises to $1.00, Hero calls $0.70
Would usually 4bet/GII in these positions but mixing it up to strengthen calling range and also villain had 2% 3bet over 160 hands.
Flop ($2.05) 4 Q 4
BB checks, Hero checks
Nothing to really protect against, don't feel comfortable stacking off.
Turn ($2.05) 4 Q 4 8
BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, BB calls $1.10
River ($4.25) 4 Q 4 8 3
BB bets $8.32 and is all in

Oct. 3, 2017 | 6:33 p.m.

The whole "you don't need to worry about balance because it's 10NL" argument is seriously flawed. Unless you have specific reads on this particular villain you don't know whether he's playing too tight or too loose etc, so you might be getting seriously exploited. Not everyone plays the same. Lower stakes aren't a reason to play worse.

Oct. 3, 2017 | 6:29 p.m.

I don't mind bluffing river but don't like the sizing. I think bigger makes more sense as most of your value betting range is the nuts.

Think flop bet/call is very thin, prefer check or b/f as you have bad playability and lots of better hands.

Sept. 29, 2017 | 7:12 p.m.

I agree, all the broadway straight draws missed and the only draw that came in is 78, he barely has any 6x and over pairs and some people will jam the turn with sets/J9s to protect vs 4straight so I think AJ is a clear shove.

Sept. 29, 2017 | 2:16 p.m.

His betting Range OTR is gonna be wider than calling Range.

I'm curious as to why you are assigning the villain such an obvious leak from the description given. Is this a "population read"?

I would bet the turn. You have good blockers and equity vs calling range and can barrel off when hearts miss.

Sept. 29, 2017 | 1:48 p.m.

If he has enough Jx in his range for you to be folding river why aren't you betting flop?

April 30, 2017 | 1:36 a.m.

April 21, 2017 | 6:22 a.m.

This is true of every stake up to nosebleeds.

April 21, 2017 | 6:20 a.m.

Comment | Tom Willetts commented on AKo CC 3bet IP

I prefer to ping in a cheeky cold 4

April 20, 2017 | 3:42 p.m.

Don't have any stats to back it up right now but I really rate a dude called I think "eclibrise". Guy is from Ukraine, seems real solid to me.

April 20, 2017 | 2:55 p.m.

Whether your check back range needs defending depends on how often you're checking. If you're only checking some give-ups then it obviously doesn't need protection.

I would definitely lean towards betting more often as there are a lot of bad turns so you're not going to be as happy shovelling in money on future streets as you are on the flop. Blocking top pair is less relevant as he's going to be calling so much wider than that.

April 18, 2017 | 9:28 a.m.

I think if I bet the flop I'd be very tempted to call the jam as he can have so many draws.

Think I prefer to check and play future streets.

April 17, 2017 | 8:31 a.m.

I think you're right, you have enough Tx so can fold.

April 17, 2017 | 8:24 a.m.

Seems good to me, his flop check cost him $55.

April 17, 2017 | 8:21 a.m.

I think calling down is good as he could bet a lot of broadways on the turn with gutshot + blockers and decide to barrel river.

Can you not have 65s (2) 45s (2) and maybe TT (3) (I guess I might fold vs his flop sizing). It's not a big 3bet and you're deep enough to peel the suited connectors imo.

April 17, 2017 | 8:09 a.m.

I doubt you can get anyone to fold Tx by x/jamming, people are more stationy bvb.

I wouldn't mind x/calling. He has a lot of Tx but your blockers are ok and he didn't bet that big.

April 15, 2017 | 10:23 p.m.

It's better to wait for the BB than post UTG.

As played fold the flop, you hardly ever need to defend vs this size and you have better hands to bluff with when you do decide to bluff (fwiw I would never bluff here).

Turn barrel is equally bad, the 5 cuts down your value combos so he'll never want to fold anything.

River was fine.

April 10, 2017 | 10:32 a.m.

Rake in micros isn't as big a problem as you're making out (at least for nlh), it's not even close to unbeatable for a casual player.

April 9, 2017 | 4:12 p.m.

That's because you keep folding ;-)

April 8, 2017 | 7:24 a.m.

I would cbet bigger on a board this wet. Calling the raise is standard as he can have a ton of draws.

The turn over shove seems to be more often sets/2 pair trying to protect than draws at this stakes so I would probably find a fold there. Not too sure though as KK no heart is one of your strongest bluffcatchers. Then again is he exploiting this? I would guess no.

April 7, 2017 | 1:15 p.m.

Definitely agree on the 4bet pre, think flatting is really bad against this size. By 4betting less often you let him realise more equity on his 3bets so he can 3bet you more often.

April 7, 2017 | 9:57 a.m.

Doubt the villain described is just cramming random diamonds or KQ so fold seems good.

April 7, 2017 | 9:06 a.m.

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