Really good content that I think will help a lot of players recalibrate their expectations on variance, myself included.
One idea that would be fun, perhaps better suited for the RIO YouTube channel, would be a video analyzing some of the hot runs in poker history and quantifying exactly how hot they were. A few that come to mind would be: Harrington back-to-back Main Event FTs, Hastings vs Isildur, Dwan on High Stakes Poker, Chidwick or Sontheimer in the recent US Poker Opens, etc.
Thanks for the video!
April 12, 2019 | 12:01 p.m.
Hero UTG: 200BB
Hero Opens 3x: AdKh
SB / BB Call
Flop: Qs Js 6c
BB Shoves 17BB
Hero Raises 45BB
My inclination is to bet small since I would expect most flushes to lead themselves, but I'm curious if you think it's too thin?
April 3, 2019 | 3:23 p.m.
Another great video.
I particularly liked your talk on the AQ hand vs bottom set. I think it's easy for poker players to see the spot and quickly move on from it and chalk something up to a cooler, so it is refreshing to hear you explain how that hand may hold a good bit of value in identifying / capping our opponent's future Flop x/r range.
I'm kind of curious to hear your thoughts on this. What do you think 2019 Tyler Forrester could beat 2015 Tyler Forrester for? What about 2010 TF? You have such an objective and analytical approach to the game and I thought it would be interesting to hear if you think you could quantify how much you've improved as a player through the years.
March 28, 2019 | 2:46 p.m.
Found myself in a peculiar spot on the River and I was hoping to get some feedback:
Here's the hand:
Hero $200 (BB) dealt Td 5c
BTN min opens to $4
Flop ($8): Kd Jd 5h
BTN bets $4
Hero decides to check/raise with backdoor flush/straight (intending to barrel any diamond/broadway Turn). Also, it's a pseudo protection bet for my 5 since I'm OOP and I'd be happy to take down the pot and deny equity to high cards. It's a board I expect him to cbet near 100% so I feel like his range is very wide with plenty of high cards that leave me guessing on the Turn/River if I simply check-call.
Hero raises to $15
At this point, I think he still calls a handful of 66-TT, Jacks which are the primary hands I'm trying to fold with barreling later on favorable Turns.
Turn ($38): Qd
Hero continues his plan and barrels. At this stage I don't think my 5 has much showdown equity but I've picked up good equity with both a diamond and card higher than the J. I expect to be able to fold out a lot of the 77-pair of Jacks range with a 2/3 pot-sized bet.
Hero bets $30
Villain calls $30
River ($98) 5s
We have a pot-sized bet left and now I've back-doored into a very disguised trips.
What is our preferred line in this spot and why? I'll include the result of the hand below.
I'd also like some thoughts on my general play with the hand. I tried to outline my logic and line of thinking above to try and get the best feedback. On one hand including Td5x (backdoor straight/flush draw) in my Flop check-raise range seems nice because I block a few additional hand combos that can continue (K5s, J5s, 55) but I wonder if using something like bottom-pair BDFD/BDSD makes my Flop check-raise frequencies far too high?
Hero opts to check and BTN jams. Hero calls.
BTN shows KK for Kings full of Fives.
March 10, 2019 | 2:08 a.m.
Great video as always Tyler. Thank you.
The presence of the 'hot rec' and the small player pool really enhanced the video and added such a unique dynamic. Thanks for talking about the possible adjustments you'd make in-game to react to what you suspect is his emotional state, attitude, and general approach as a person who has amassed a huge stack.
If you weren't recording a video, is this the type of player pool you would have forced yourself to play in (due to the presence of a big stacked / bad player?) Or would this have been a session where you may have taken a short break since you had lost several stacks and would look to reset mentally?
Perhaps you've mentioned it in previous videos, but what sort of win-rates do you think the absolute best are realizing at the $1/$2 or $2/$5 ZONE games?
Feb. 27, 2019 | 2:45 p.m.
Eff stacks 100bb
Hero opens Qs Qd in CO 2.4x
57bb stack BTN calls
SB squeezes to 8bb
Hero elects to call
I elect to call here to keep the BTN, a presumed rec player due to his odd stack size, in the pot. In hindsight, that might be a better play (keep the fish in) when we're holding something less vulnerable than QQ. Perhaps I should reserve this line more for the KK and AA population of hands that are less overcard vulnerable.
As played, we see a Flop.
Flop (27bb): Qc Jd 9c
SB bets 12BB
I'm a little unsure the best thing to do here. Do we opt to Flat to try and keep the rec player in the pot? Or is the texture of this board so wet that we need to be ignoring the rec player in this situation? Ordinarily, if the board were say Q72r, I think this is an obvious flat.
Feb. 4, 2019 | 10:35 p.m.
Trying to incorporate some overbetting into my play, a move I'm admittedly very under-studied on, and I would like to hear feedback on specifically this overbet and then maybe some opinions on potentially different River cards that would make this a more preferable spot to overbet.
Hero (SB) opens 3x Jd 8d
Flop: As Ks 4h
Hero cbets 30%
Hero bets 2.8x pot
Villain calls and shows Kh 5d
Now, taking the actual results out of this (villain made a great call, kudos). His exact hand make me feel justified that my overbet was sound, however, I don't want to allow his specific holding to cloud my judgment.
My rationale for the overbet: Both flush draws missed the Turn. I'd expect the villain to want some protection from this board on the Turn with anything like 2p, decent ace, straight, etc, so his Turn check really caps his range to something medium-strength. By the River, I obviously have no showdown value. Also, I unblock both flush draws.
Feb. 4, 2019 | 3:48 p.m.
Couple of ZONE hands, so no reads are available. I'd love some feedback on the hands though.
Hero (UTG) opens TcTs to $5
Villain (BTN) 3bets to $17.50
Flop: 6d 8h 4c
Hero check calls $20
Check / Check
What's our preferred play here?
Moreso curious to hear how you guys might play this spot differently. It's very weird to me and I wasn't really sure what to do. I hated calling down but the bet sizing led me to keep doing it.
Hero (UTG) opens AsJc $5
Flop: Ah Tc 8s
SB leads $6
SB bets $12
SB bets $15
SB shows As4s
BTN shows AQo
Feb. 1, 2019 | 4:05 p.m.
Curious to hear thoughts on this hand which occurred at a $2/$5 Live game.
The game is playing quite tame to this point. We've been at the table for only a few hours and we don't have any history with either villain. Here's all we got read-wise:
Villain A (BTN): He moved over from the other game that broke. About two orbits ago he donk-jammed a multiway single-raised pot with JJ on 822. He was called by another player who had 77 and Turned a 7 to suckout on him. He's been fuming about that hand for the last five minutes or so.
Villain B (SB): Youngish kid wearing sunglasses and headphones. He's pretty arrogant (think a similar schtick to Eric Molina from the Jamie Gold WSOP). To this point, we've seen him open limp in with some awful holdings (K2o in LP, 54o) and we've also seen him iso-raise limpers with AXss, KJo, and T9o in position. No 3-bets to this point.
On to the hand. Effective stacks are $750 or 150BBs
Hero UTG: QcTc and raises it to $20
Villains A and B call.
Flop ($70): As Jc Th
Turn ($70): 3c
SB bets $45. We call. BTN folds
River ($160): Kc
SB bets $155.
Do you guys like raising here?
Clearly, from the title, you can tell that I elected to just call. With all the AXcc combos still out there (and me holding the 3rd nut flush blocker), I had concerns of only value-owning myself with a raise. I'd love to hear some feedback.
July 30, 2018 | 3:02 p.m.
Typical full ring live game with lots of multiway pots, limping pre, etc etc.
Villain (MP) is one of the poorer players at the table. He definitely categorizes as more of an "action" player, but not in the sense that he fires blindly at pots. He calls down pretty lightly and is generally quite sticky. He has Hero covered.
Hero in BB with Js Jc 9h 8s
$15 raise pre by EP, five callers and Hero completes.
Flop ($75): 7s 6d 3c
SB bets $25. Hero flats.
Villain pots it to $175 and it's folded to us. We have about 1 PSB left if we call the bet.
How would we rank the following strategies in this spot?
1.) Jam. Villain is known to only run it once and I would say we have no fold equity in this spot.
2.) Call with the intention of lead-potting any spade, Jack, Ten, Five
3.) Call and check all Turns
March 2, 2018 | 10:18 p.m.
4 betting isn't a great spot, but I like it better than the other options (playing a 3b pot OOP multiway, folding). It is an icky spot regardless, but I think we make fewer mistakes by 4betting ourselves than trying to play 3 streets out of position against two players in a bloated pot.
Dec. 25, 2017 | 9:34 p.m.
I'm going BIG on the River. The SB doesn't seem like the type to fold 2p here and I'm not sure a player with those stats would lead turns with a FD or JT so I think we can discount those from his range. Get max value from his 2-pairs which make up a lot of his hands imo.
Dec. 24, 2017 | 8:18 p.m.
If pot was HU (ie BTN raised and blinds fold), I would be inclined to just flat AKo UTG vs BTN. Given that the SB tagged along, I am 4b to try and get the pot HU.
As played, I think I play the hand the same way as you. I lean fold on the River given that we have the Kh and also that SB range connects quite well with this board.
Dec. 24, 2017 | 3:25 p.m.
I prefer a flat pre. KTh isn't bad to play multiway if the blinds come along, you have good position, and you would hate for UTG to 4b and force you to fold.
As played, I like mixing in some check backs here.
As played, I like betting the river for some value. His hand looks an awful lot like AQ, AJ