MP: $25.00 (Hero)
June 14, 2021 | 1:30 p.m.
SB: $36.80 (Hero)
June 8, 2021 | 2:39 p.m.
yeah im rarely 3betting this preflop, was surely some exploit vs a particular opponent. Yeah inittially i though my turn block was bad cause im giving really good price to his Ax,etc. But yeah giving preflop and flop he shoudlnt have many random Ax...
thanks for all the inputs you are giving :)
June 5, 2021 | 6:50 p.m.
SB: $25.00 (Hero)
June 5, 2021 | 3:24 p.m.
BB: $39.17 (Hero)
June 5, 2021 | 3:11 p.m.
What you need to consider is not your equity on the turn before your bet - you need to consider your equity in the new pot after your bet.
all i have is the spot before my turn bet. and given villain profile + in general not expecting a lot of XR on the turn. Most of villain's value (and draws also) would want to lead out the turn.
My hand has a very easy continue vs Turn raises, this is another good reason to go for the turn bet.
June 5, 2021 | 10:48 a.m.
BN: $37.31 (Hero)
June 3, 2021 | 1:07 p.m.
SB: $32.66 (Hero)
June 3, 2021 | 1:02 p.m.
1) try and get him to fold out the equity he gets from his QJs/KTs type draws
I think these hands are gonna be turn CBs pretty often.
2) maybe fold out some A6s/A2s type of hands
Yeah so i guess i can get folds from AKs w BDFDs and A2s, but that about it.His range is still well protected by some overpairs and pair+draw type hands.
3) get us more of a chance to check back to SD. Almost all the medium strength hands that would check the turn and then bet $8.20 on the river once we check back would also likely call a $6.50 bet on the turn and then check to us on the river.
So, his turn check has some air (give ups like KQo,KJo,A5s,A4s,AJs w BDFDs and then some pairs (76s,77,TT,97s,T9s, sometimes TT,AA in there). Expect most AT,KTs,QTs,A7s,QJs,JTs to barrel turn. Thats why i dont think i need that much protection and why ill never play bet turn - check back river.
April 25, 2021 | 8:32 a.m.
Well, it seems to me that you are trying to apply strategy that you dont exactly know and kind of just guessing..
Oh! absolutely :)
And yeah i clearly see now how i have a ton of potential bluff combos, no need to use 44 here.
Usually the overcard turn isnt actually an overbet in theory.. because you are repping very few hands for value that would like to overbet - like in this case all of your strong 9x, TT-JJ dont really like this sizing.. so in his shoes I would be really suspicious vs this line
So mainly using one smaller size for our whole betting range? What would that sizing look like?
Dont we benefit for also having a bigger/polarized sizing?
Anyway, thanks for the post, really insightful!
April 23, 2021 | 2:27 p.m.
CO: $25.35 (Hero)
April 23, 2021 | 12:46 p.m.
Yeah thats a fair point. My thinking is that betting flop i might end up repping a few more FDs later on (i check more small FDs on the turn that i do on the flop) --- this coud be a mistake in my strategy tho..
April 23, 2021 | 12:36 p.m.
BN: $60.33 (Hero)
April 23, 2021 | 12:28 p.m.
April 23, 2021 | 12:14 p.m.
Really tough spot men. AKcc,K9cc only realistc value.
How many bluff combos? A lot more than value. Lots of Ax of clubs KQ, maybe KJ, J9.
Dont think KQ will play like this. Then J9 i think it has to be only J9cc to continue Turn, and im not so sure if this also applies to the KJ combos.
AXcc is interesting cause of the AKcc blocker. Id say A9cc must be a bluff blocking both staights.
April 22, 2021 | 12:51 p.m.
MP: $26.91 (Hero)
BB wins $1.24
Rake is $0.06
April 22, 2021 | 12:22 p.m.
Agree with flop checking.
As played: we already polarized with betting flop bigger (and strengthnt the range of villain). So i guess overbetting this turn should be fine.
Is this really so? Sure having to check most, if not all your flop range would leave you with a weird CB range. But is it THAT polarized that we can continue by overbetting on probably the worst turn? What is our value region on the flop QT+? And even our KJhh its on a crappy spot if we get shoved on the turn.
I dont mind betting small on the turn as played, but i prefer checking
April 21, 2021 | 11:50 a.m.
Tbh im not optimistic about getting folds from AK,88,99 basically aiming at his pair+draw, 98, maybe A8,A9. Sure this might be an argument for a smaller sizing, but are my value hands for this range? I dont have sets and very few combos of 2pair.
I block 88,A8 and the straights, reason why i go really big.
OK so u mention Tx as candidates, maybe T2ss-T6ss? its hard to only have Tx here. And 76 is interesting sure, it does block T7.
April 19, 2021 | 11:28 a.m.
I will post the ranges. A GTO 3b range is somewhere in the vicinity of 12-14% (depending on many variables). Most pools are under 10%. My pool is 8.7%.
Wow thats crazy tight, mine is 16% :) thats probably my bias on the subject. Anyway, thanks men for taking the time and for the info!
April 19, 2021 | 11:08 a.m.
Vs. a GTO BB 3b range (low rake environment) most sims will mix 55 (75% call), 44 (50% call) and 33/22 (25% call).
Pretty surprised by this. Doesnt feel very intuitive, but i dont own a solver. I checked with snowie ranges and it shows call with all spp tho. I do agree with your rake consideration just not sure if its enough for me to sart folding.
I would argue that we are up against BB ranges that are 15-20% tighter than what a GTO range would be
Not sure about this, it feels like a bit too much, and we also need to consider that the avg reg in 50nl is gonna sturggle to realize eq oop a lot more than the bot. Im far from just setmining here (i know u said it ironically :) ), just hand vs range is doing fine + position
April 18, 2021 | 7:34 p.m.
SB: $25.32 (Hero)