Yeah man i agree. Overall when ive had ak in a 5bp i ran jnto AA or KK 9/19 times and down 10bis in this spot alone. I ran QQ into KK/AA 6/13 times and ran KK into AA 6/14 times. So it seems to me that the best adjustment is to 4b fold AK and QQ depending on player and positions since its expected to be losing, not even just in practice but when you run the equities of a range where people dont jam JJ or TT at all. Wheres the incentive for us to 4b call TT-QQ when were co when bn always has AA in their 5b range. What makes these hands profitable calls is the assumption that AA is pure calling. When we add AA to a 5b jam range were losing so much damn money. Can you imagine KK having 47% equity hj v co if they always jam AA. If we 4b to 20bbs and get jammed on, calling is netting us more than folding but its crazy to think that KK is still netting us less than what we invested in the pot. Our main incentive is to play mainly 4bet pots it seems, people arent 5b jamming enough and when we get our 4b called we can be fairly confident its like 99-JJ, some AK and AQs and maybe suited bws . In my db this past month im up 40bis in 4bps and down 8bis in 5bps. If i didnt run good in them i would be down 15bis or more
May 21, 2020 | 7:31 p.m.
well on average people 3b fold to 4bet 37% of the time. in order for someone to 5b they have to first 3bet which one average is 7%, and they 5b 12% depending on positions so if im doing this right that means on average their 5b range is .9% of hands which funny enough works out to be exactly KK and AA. of course there is some variation as there are some hands that have got in light of course but this does make a lot of sense to me tbh. there are some crazy hands of course that have gotten 5b, but out of 1800 5bps only 21.63% has 4b folded. which makes sense because if someone 4bets bn v sb 8%, then 43 * .08 = 3.44% of hands so if they get in QQ+ AK which is 2.56% of hands that means they call off 75% and fold 25% of the time.
May 20, 2020 | 11:13 p.m.
its only about 150k hands. and i filtered for 4b and 5bps so it is adjusted for times ive gotten folds. the problem im facing is that everyone is severely underbluffing. they stack off 75% of the time when they 4b, and when they 5b, its way tighter than optimal. so im looking for insights on how to adjust to this. since in 5bps im losing a ton and my winrate could be 33% higher if i just broke even in them. and the suckouts you mention isnt really important, because even if I am running above EV, the EV of these hands is negative in 5bps
May 20, 2020 | 8:39 p.m.
hey thanks for engaging in this post.
1:it depends on positions of course, some people are more liberal and some arent, but generally in spots were AK is mainly a jam, which is every spot except bb v utg 4b, i think people are flatting more frequently, and in spots were AA is mainly a flat vs a 4b (where 3bettor is IP) people play it mainly as a jam. I also think QQ isnt jammed as often. people are probably ahead of me on how to adjust to the pool being so tight which is probably why.
2:some good regs do, very seldom though given it is 25z
3:no. I dont think positions really matter as much as hand strength since QQ+ AK are all supposed to be fine in 5b pots. most of the spots have been in LP though.
4:about 150k hands
I see your point but I disagree when it comes to thinking just because we are 4b folding means its a bluff. We dont get any better hands to fold so it cant be a bluff in that sense. Its like saying we are bluffing with TT and AQo/KQs when we 3b fold hj v lj. it has mergey properties, namely the KQ since we get called by worse Qx and Kx hands but also fold out a lot of Ax. and TT is a hand thats good enough to 3b and performs well when called, but poorly vs a 4b range. When I look at 4bps with AK, QQ+, I'm making a ton of money, but the only hand that makes money in 5bps is AA. I do see your point, I can flat 3bets more frequently and not 4b as often with these hands and adjust to players of course. That way I keep hands I dominate in their range. But I also think theres merit in 4b folding some of these hands because they do really well in 4bps but horrid in 5bps, it also denies equity and get value from worse pairs and suited bws.
One thing as well is that people are under 4bing severely(player dependent ofc) at 8.25% and gi vs 5bets 74% of the time. so in these spots I can just overfold to the 4bs but I'm still unsure of what adjustments to make with specific hands. the pool on average is only folding 25% of the time to 5bs, even im pretty imbalanced 4betting 13% on average and folding 38% of the time to 5bs. and if i adjust like my db suggests, i would want to only stack off with AA. KK even becomes dicey since its break even. the sample size is small but i'm sure the pattern is still there at these stakes. on stars out of 44 hands that i've had QQ,KK and AK in a 5bp, i ran into AA 22 of them, and on a softer site its 18/50 for a total of 42.5% on both sites. that is an absurdly high number. even with a QQ+AK range, AA only makes up 18% of its range. sure it could just be card distribution since 150k hands isnt nearly a lot of hands, but i still think the pattern is there. the only hand that is making money in 5bps is AA on stars and KK/AA on the softer site. which makes me think 4b folding is a fairly decent adjustment with QQ and AK. since when i 4b, i get folds 50% of the time, calls 40% of the time and jammed on 10%. so we capitalize on extra fold equity, and also by getting value from the hands that call (nice to know its very rarely KK/AA) and also since they are 5betting very seldomly, we can just 4b fold a lot. Also another thing too, is btn should always flat AA vs a co 4bet, so when we look at the equity of AK and QQ vs a correct range its 46 and 52%. but if people are always piling in AA we have 40% and 44.6%. KK has a ton of equity vs a correct range but once they start jamming AA every time we go from 73% to 56%, which is fucking insane if you consider rake, we only net 6bbs... so to me the obvious adjustment is to just 4b fold everything that isnt AA/KK vs most, and flat 3bs more often but still 4b/fold QQ and AK for value since they perform very well in 4bps and poorly in 5bps and call off against specific opponents.
May 20, 2020 | 8:01 p.m.
Im curious how you guys may approach and adjust to these spots. the pool is nitty as fuck in these spots and on average is 4betting half as often as they should (10ish%). they tend to defend okay-ish vs 4bs but defend way more frequently with a call compared to 5bing. when it comes to the pool 4bing, it tends to be very weighted towards value. on average they 4b-call 5b jams 80% of the time. when i look into my db, im losing a bunch in 5bps. the only hand that has made money in 5bps is AA, QQ,KK and AK are all losing, and by a fucking ton. KK isnt losing nearly as much as QQ and AK, but its still slightly losing surprisingly. adjustments ive come up with is to 4b fold QQ and AK since they do well in 4bps but horribly in 5bps. obviously this sounds absurd,maybe not to some but I'm really just trying to find a way to reduce how much im losing in 4-5bps and see what others have come up with when it comes to adjusting in these spots and if you guys have seen the same pattern. thanks for reading!
May 20, 2020 | 5:07 a.m.
I think both sizings are basically the same. I think we should mainly check calling this hand after betting turn, but as played in your post, the sim prefers to bet on the larger side with kq. Aswell as all your turned top pair that checked. The sim defends jx and qx pretty frequently as the ip player which i doubt people do in practice. So if you dont think youll get called by much worse, it makes sense to bluff catch since a lot of draws missed and he can turn 7x into a bluff
April 24, 2020 | 12:34 p.m.
i just ran a sim and were sopose to defend 60-75% of our range here (i only gave 33/75% sizings). on the flop, we should range bet and split between 1/3rd and 3/4ths. AQ,KQ,KK and AA really prefer the larger size , while the sets prefer to go 1/3rd. for ip river strategy he should always be betting 75% with hands that want to bet. hes basically repping AT and AJ which is sopose to mainly bet 1/3rd on the turn. so on a blank, if hes mainly checking back those hands i guess we could fold. but for our strategy, this turn is so good for our range that this is the turn that we do most of our barreling on. so KQ actually likes to block bet the turn. and on a blank we x/c KQ since he can still have T9s, and missed fds.
here is our flop strategy. on the turn we do a lot of xing on As/Ks and bet on lower spades
April 24, 2020 | 1:55 a.m.
hmm. yeah i do think overbets are pretty underbluffed by fish. i would end up calling here i think given the retard factor of fish. i do like the xr on the turn, could go bigger than 2/3rd vs a fish though, i might just raise pot. on the river either/or is fine. letting him bluff missed spades is a good idea. i think calling is a must since he can still have some offsuit Qx which may or may not be a lot of combos. although you do block them, the offsuit combos of QcJx would be quite a lot if hes limp calling q8o. i expect a fish to limp call almost every weak axo. the thing is he can have a shit ton of flushes too since i do see fish limp call 72s etc. so he can have 30+ flushes and 6 boats. if he takes this line with the weaker fds then that will be a shit load more. all in all, i probably call given the fact that fish are unpredictable and can have random shit.
April 24, 2020 | 1:34 a.m.
such a perfect post for me ironically at the perfect time. i have been dealing with this exact thing the the past 2 days as i just recently moved up and lost 12bis after crushing the lower stake the past 3 weeks, which took a huge hit to my br. i was super tilted and i thought to myself why when i lose 5-10x the pot live, im able to control my emotions better, same goes with when i play my normal stakes, i dont really care about losing a ton of bis. i think a lot of it has to do with questioning your ability to win, even if you have studied the pool and have good exploits, losing is something that our brains take really poorly which results in us studying a shit load more to avoid that pain. also considering the sheer amount of volume we get in online, 10 hours live you can do in about an hour 1 tabling zoom. so its really hard to lose 5bis in a day live, compared to playing 4k hands in a day, you can easily see -10bis or +20-30 which would be the equivalent of playing a full month live. i also think live we are more calm since its also social, and are more likely to tilt if we dont like people at the table, and online we remove any human association to an avatar so we can build hatred easily. like dnegs said, since you dont have a good sample size, you are unsure if you are winning which i believe creates dissonance for our brain since we believe we are winning, but also not sure. as for controlling your tilt, i would recommend meditation, listen to the elliot roe mp3s and really calm yourself down before and after sessions. it will help you with changing your outlook on situations, whether its strategy or things that are more important. for example, if you were offered infinite wealth for the cost of a loved ones life, you would obviously say no. of course thats quite dramatic but some things in life we need to give more emotional value to vs a card game. for me, my tilt has resulted in treating friends and family poorly. which meditation has helped and i treat close ones with more kindness nowadays.
April 24, 2020 | 12:30 a.m.
great video. gave me quite a few insights. very interesting to see in the last hand that IP needs to defend quite a bit of Kh and Ah hands on the turn or else we'd be folding too much and also to use as bluffs when river is checked to us . seems to me this spot is perhaps overfolded on turns and rivers in practice. also, on turn when ip is checked to, i see that IP needs to go bet/bet with hands like 44-88 and 9x pretty frequently since oop needs to defend i think roughly 50% of its AK/AQ and all of the A3s, but i think in practice people tend to block bet those hands to xb the river, which makes a bit of sense if oop is under xring. do you think you would incorporate defending the KQ/KJ on the turn to bluff river with, or betting twice when checked to on turn with those small pps for value? or in practice do you think its torching money?
April 11, 2020 | 11:04 a.m.
Hey Krzysztof Slaski
Great video as usual. The 43dd hand at roughly 20mins in, where you elected to check back the flop and just call down the turn and river barrel. When I ran this hand into a solver, i saw although we are checking back 15-20% of our flush draws and 40% of top pairs, I was wondering why you thought his value bet with AJ was too thin. To be fair, he should be betting smaller with a non diamond combo on the river, but the EV of a small and large bet are basically the same. We should still have a bunch of hands that AJ beats in our range like weak Ax we have to defend vs a large bet, and the small amount of flushes and two pairs in our range isn't something that should stop OOP from value betting in my opinion. Also, do you think OOP is underbluffing and therefor you will fold a bit more of your Ax to his barrels? There are a lot of bare 1 card gut shot and weak 1 diamond flush draws that should be barreling here but I'm not so sure if I see people making those plays often enough. I also noticed that a hand like AQo and AKo with a diamond is always raising the river vs a 1/3rd pot bet since most of his small betting range is comprised of mainly top pair. Would you consider this an overplay vs the general population?
Looking forward to a response and more great content!
Jan. 15, 2020 | 5:38 a.m.
he knows hes getting there obviously....
....no seriously though, hes a live player, hes not really thinking of being balanced here at all. im sure he has his reasons but i cant really think of many. he only really has T6s,T2s,62s and 22,66 as value hands which is only 12 combos, so he can definitely be overbluffing here when hes just firing off with bare offsuit gutters. a lot of times, live players are super nitty though so him 3betting flop and barreling off might get julie to fold overpairs, not too sure. also if he donks and gets called on flop + turn, i think hes confident that hes getting a lot of snap folds since julie might just overfold rivers with tp+ some overpairs. he might also just give up a lot and his plan is to donk + 3bet flop and give up turn unless he gets there. I was watching a video of his when he first joined RIO, he mentioned donk leading and 3betting air as an exploit on AAxr flops from bb in a limped pot since generally people will just trap Ax and wont raise so when he 3bets hes gettting a ton of folds, and when he gets called he shuts down. different situation though but he definitely has a super explo approach to the game
July 2, 2019 | 11:22 a.m.
As this is a bit late, not sure if Chris will see it, but maybe someone else can help me. In the last example, when we only get it in vs BB, don't we have to account for the chips we still have regardless of outcome because we cover him?