Voodoo32

Dont worry about it mate.
I hope it didnt come off as if I wanted to brag about what I know, if that is the case, that was not my intention.
We are all here to learn and grow in an environment with likeminded individuals.
To a ton of people out there, I am a big fish as well.
It is all one big session, all that matters is that you want to improve and work on your game.

Cheers

I looked at it again more in depth and the best play here is heavily bound to the range from BTN.
As this varies drastically, but is more often than not a condensed, rather strong range, we should indeed x/c relatively often here, at least in theory.

If we range bet, villain has to bluff raise a lot of combos that most players wont, such as 7s and 8s, as well as some Ts and Js.
I locked the strategy to raise frequencies of AKo and AQo, as well as half the club FDs.
9s are always raising and A5 almost always.

I think this isnt far off reality and should give us a good aggregation of how our flop strategy performs.
Now we actually gain EV compared to playing more passive, as villain isnt raising enough. If villain starts overcalling more hands, this means an even higher EV gain.
There is obviously a margin of error, so we shouldnt focus too much on that EV gain, but it shows, that range betting here is probably the best play.

By betting range, we simplify our strategy and can, with some theoretical groundwork, pilot a lot more turns and rivers profitably, as a range bet situation on an Axx board occurs quite often.
It is always important to not forget that humans still have to actually play, aside from what the best theoretical play is.
So we not only gain EV by exploiting our oponnents tendency to underbluff, we also gain EV by picking a strategy, that we can execute a lot easier.

Preflop:

KQo standard call BBvsCO 3x. 3bet fine as well with some freq.
KQs is always a 3bet BBvsCO.
Your 3B size OOP is way too small. 4x should be minimum, 5x is fine as well.
With your super small size, the range from villain that I posted will probably be too tight.

Postflop:
Don't make assumptions about villains range unless you have minimum a few hundred hands, more like 1k+. If you arent sure, just go with usual preflop ranges.
Your range assumptions are, without reads that is, way too tight.
It should look more like this: http://www.pokerhandrange.com/hand/5wnswui4p0waqodrchcbb8zdkr1hes5rw

Vs unknown villains on low stakes, you can always add frequencies of even more holdings, because we play vs an unknown after all.
Blocking Kings isnt relevant at all, because he 4bets Kings pre.

Your analysis starts with looking at your holding and comparing it to the board.
You should more look at your entire range.
Again, your preflop ranges seem to be way off, but your range doesn't really connect with the board at all. SBvsBTN for example is a whole different spot on the same board texture, because we 3bet a number of low cards, which we tend to call here BBvsCO vs a 3x.
So the real only value we have here are our Overpair combinations.

You don't say anything about why you chose this bet size, or what your overall gameplan looks like on this board.
How much do you want to cbet? Which size could be good and why?
If we have a size and a cbet frequency, what hands could be in there?
If you dont have a concept about your gameplan in mind, you can never navigate turns and rivers profitably, because you dont know your range at all.

You say you double barrel to make him fold his pocket pairs.
Lets examine that part of his range:
22 with 1 diamond might call flop, but I agree vs this size, prob folding.
33 has a gutshot, wont fold flop and most turns as well.
44 makes a set.
55, has an open ender, wont fold flop or turn.
66 makes a set.
77 makes a set.
88 is an overpair.
99 is an overpair.
TT is an overpair.
JJ is an overpair.

As other floats vs this size, we have a ton of flushdraws and a small number of offsuit Overcards with 1 diamond.
And then a number of two pairs and sets as well, that definitely won't always raise IP when you bet that large on a flop.
Turn:
All of these will never fold on a flush turn. If you bet this large on the flop, you fold out almost all hands without a diamond. And the ones without a diamond, are still very strong hands on the 2d turn.
Look at how you justify your play: "With that sizing i showed him, that i am committed now and ready to push on river. " That is no strategical argument at all.

I am not sure where your preflop ranges come from, but I would for sure start there to improve.

Not sure how you conclude that a player that overcalls a 3bet and then almost minraises flop is a regular. 3bet pre on low stakes def fine.

Not sure why you choose half pot, you have a huge range advantage and want to barrel this board almost always. Go for 1/3 and always call this small raise with AQ.
If you fold this, you fold your entire range. After only playing 20 hands with someone, you definitely don't know if he min raises AJ, AQ, a number of flushdraws or only AK+ here. That is just random guessing.
When he raises 3x+ and you have a few hundred hands on him, fine, make that nitty fold. But this is definitely too tight.

I feel really sorry for hearing this, as I can of course relate to most of these problems.
Just in the first days of 2019 I am currently running about 30 stacks below EV in PLO CG and it can really take you down.
Can't even imagine how losing for so long, despite most likely being a winning player, feels like.
It is always very hard, or impossible, to evaluate someones situation from afar, but my wild guess would be that your A-game is crushing, but your B- and C-game are probably slightly winning/slightly losing and the long downswing is just clouding your mind.
If you don't already do, I would stop playing different formats, focus on one of them and I wouldn't choose MTT's just because your results were the best in this. Pick whats fun and interesting for you.
For a while, try to execute a proper life schedule, go to sleep at a reasonable time, get GOOD sleep, no phone, TV etc. and exercise twice a week or so. Don't focus on grinding for a few days, just try to live a "balanced" lifestyle" and then integrate playing poker into it.

In the end none of us can really evaluate if you are actually a good winning player or not.
I would take the biggest losing pots and let them get reviewed by someone really good, there are for sure also good MTT regs you can find in forums or on discord servers that would do that for free or a small fee.

You probably thought of all of this yourself and if it doesn't really help you, then take them as kind words. Poker can be cruel, but if you really want it, I am sure you can succeed.

I hope poker still works out for you in the future, best greetings.

gl at the tables

In terms of volume, regarding CG hands, as well as tournaments played, whats your roughly daily amount?

Calling 4bets, vs. a 4bet range of only AA, with high card hands, and especially with Kings, is never a good Idea.
However, in this specific example, you would have the odds to profitably call the 4bet, but it is staggeringly close (you have 33,98% on average vs. AAXX and you need 33%). These kind of super marginal spots just boost variance and you don’t have to take them in micro stakes. Play ABC and you will be just fine.
If you know for sure, villains 4bet range consists of more than AA, then calling is fine.
And yeah, as played, you have to go with it on this flop.

I looked at the PLOMatrix and I agree with you, that this is super useful.
But nevertheless, it is still way too costy for me.
Good point, preflop mistakes lead to a lot of very expensive mistakes and situations postflop.

gl at the tables

Great video, also emphasized a lot of "standard" concepts of unblocking and blocking stuff, which is always helpful when constructing ranges.
I was always betting very merged in these spots, I will adjust now and see what I encounter.
You mentioned a few times, that betting too merged is bad, because against a decent c/r range, we fold too many hands that push decent equity.
Against a population that underbluffs immensly, isn't it a good idea to bet merged and choose a smaller sizing?

100% bet on the flop, it’s multiway and with top set with a lot of bad turn cards you never want to give away free cards.
Fortunate that you got to c/r but I would advise for full pot, there is nothing he calls there against this sizing and folds to a pot raise.
Maybe 86 if he bet that, but given it’s a rec I see him probably calling even this, especially if he has backdoor draws, not charging your weak opponent with your value hands is a very big leak, they don’t think about sizings especially in these kind of spots and you just go for straight value here.
On the turn, the spr is so low that you can’t fold your hand, just go to propokertools and look at your equity versus several straights, and keep in mind he doesn’t even always have a straight, but also hands you have crushed.

gl at the tables

Hey, welcome to RIO, I am kind of new as well and be sure you won’t regret joining.
I also started learning PLO lately and I think you can just go for the Learning Path here for PLO, with the flop strategy by Badurowicz being the most valuable thing I have seen so far in terms of content.
If you watched the learning path, I would just watch Phil Galfond reviewing low and mid stakes plays, you can pause the video and think about what you would do and why and check what Phil thinks about it.
He does a really great job.
Just be noticed that if you grind low to mid stakes that things like balancing and stuff aren’t nearly as important as in NL.

gl at the tables

You seem like a very reflective person and if you feel good about moving up and have the required BR, of course you should go for it.
Just wanted to remind you in case you were about to do something dumb in the hype of being motivated to grind again :).

Then I wish you best of luck and success for your further journey and of course for NL100.

I think it is great that you found motivation again and didn’t let the mental stuff take you down, but you should know that after 5k hands, your winrate doesn’t mean anything.
So saying you want to look to move up after another 5k hands sounds super weird to me. I mean you could be crushing NL50 with 15bb or you could be losing with -10 and we wil never know it, because of the small sample. Especially because your mental game had to bear so much in the last days/weeks I would advice you to stick to NL50 for like a month, which equals ~100k hands and think about moving up in stakes afterwards. Also if you are winning 5bb/100 in NL50, we just assume the winrate will stay like that, which is rather unlikely, you are a slight winner and should definitely not move up.

Keep grinding and gl at the tables