I would check back flop and start to bet OTT.
As played instead, I think you can fold OTR. You don't have any read and also he could easily value bet KK+.
Regarding your reasoning with blockers, imho that isn't worth much. I mean, for me, it is just better to analyze some data and infer some solid arguments. It happens way to frequently that we take into account blockers, correctly, but villain ends up having the strong obvious hand you are blocking. Don't you think blocker effect are more relevant against a competent opponent who will bluff at some frequency?
EDIT: In my DB it happens 5% of the times...
Dec. 14, 2018 | 4:22 p.m.
It seems to me that villain is on the tighter side and the river it should be pretty scary for him unless he has the flush/boat. I think you can just fold river and shrug it off.
IMO, there turn raises don't happen as often as we think and them are seldom even at nl100. Have you done a DB anaysis when you filter how many times SB raises, BB calls, Flop is cbet and called, turn is cbet and raised?
My first thought is this is somewhat underbluffed spot
Dec. 14, 2018 | 4:14 p.m.
I gotta reread the hand a few times in order to make sure we have the boat.
I don't know your defintion of thin, but shove your full house isn't thin at all. You are scared of 2 holdings that you block, but at the same time you don't count the times he got AT which is a hand he could have. Also QT is possible and for him is still a value bet OTR. You can have AT or AXsuited.
I think you ended up losing with JJ that's why you posted it :p
Unlucky, move on to the next hand
Dec. 14, 2018 | 4:06 p.m.
As played, turn is a way way more bigger bet. This helps you setting better stacks for a river shove which is what you want. I would consider to pot OTT or just go to 1.5 PSB, probablt the latter is better.
Also at these stakes people don't havethe fold button, so you can capitalize on that
Dec. 14, 2018 | 4 p.m.
BB: $27.36 (Hero)
BB wins $2.46
Rake is $0.14
Dec. 14, 2018 | 2:23 p.m.
But it must be checked, tho
We can't because we don't know the hole cards of the opponents... or we can just make a DB analysis and infer something?
Question: you bet 1/2 OTF, 1/3 OTT and get called, River is an offsuit 9, you check and plan to decide against a bet. Villain bets half pot, would you call? Because I cannot see many bluffs,many marginal hands improved to 2 pair and he still got the nutted hand in his range (at least, some of the times)
Dec. 12, 2018 | 3:30 p.m.
I would start to bet OTF with your holding. You can get a call from a worse 7x for sure.
The problem here which the flop check, is that his air have a lot of equity against you, so you aren't inducing anything really beside encourage him to outdraw you pretty easily.
If you would have JJ instead of A7 your reasoning would make more sense, but imho, you are overcomplicating things and leaving money on the table, especially at these stake where people cannot find the fold button
Dec. 12, 2018 | 3:23 p.m.
SB: $62.57 (Hero)
Rake is $1.16
Dec. 12, 2018 | 12:39 p.m.
SB: $51.00 (Hero)
Dec. 11, 2018 | 12:32 p.m.
we dominate a couple of combos such as JT and T9 and perhaps T8 but we still lose to AT and KT. so around 50% of the Tx that are calling us on the flop we lose to. and some of the weaker Tx will be folded on subsequent streets so we are now rapidly heading towards value-owning ourselves. and we are also 3 ways, our flop c-betting range cannot be as wide and as aggressive than it would be if we were HU. we are also OOP to the button who has position on us on all 3 streets, should be play them.
Very nice reply... I agree with you 100% beside one fact... you assume villains are going to stay in the hand with resonable ranges. If both are fishy, their calling range is wide, even Ahigh is part of it.
Personally I would start to bet 1/3 and go from there
we also lose to sets, 2 pairs and the odd over pair such as JJ that
the button chose to flat with. so pretty quickly you can see that c
betting QT 3 ways and then betting either flop/turn or flop/river is
pretty dicey. and vs a raise we pretty much just have to fold straight
away, which is a disaster when the bb has a hand like an open ender or
Sure we lost vs these holdings, but their calling range is wider than that
In my pool, I'm pretty confident a fish with an open ender is just calling here... so we can fold very easy vs a turn raise.
you are basically saying that you are betting to avoid them betting
and you being put in to a bluff catching spot, well sometimes you have
to get in to tough spots in poker because that is where your true edge
will come from, when you can work them out better than your opponent.
This seems to be extracted from the Janda's book :D... well, I see your point and I gotta admit that this is a leak of mine. You are 100% right
also, if we start betting almost all of our Tx on the flop that leaves
our turn range extremely weak when the flop goes xxx. bb can lead
wider, such as hands as weak as second pair, and we cannot delayed c
bet almost at all because we have 0 value hands unless we bink
something on the turn.
and once we x back villains will be more suspicious of our delayed
turn bets because they will think we will bet all of our strong hands
on the flop, thus increasing the likelihood that they are going to
call us twice with hands as weak as 2nd or even 3rd pair.
I wouldn't bet all Tx, T9 is a check I think.
Also, even if I see your theory, don't you forget we are up against 2 fishes? So they are somewhat retarded and don't pick up any from our play?
Dec. 10, 2018 | 4:47 p.m.
And then, you are projecting your ranges and actions into villain's ranges and actions. Sometimes this is good but sometimes we mess it up with non-true assumptions.
This is an astonishing reminder. I'm culprit of this way too too often
Dec. 10, 2018 | 4:36 p.m.
I dont think he'd call me preflop with 33, 66, 77, 77, T9s, 54s or
anything like that in order to fear calling here. Did I make the
This is nl2, I would expect the range you decribed to call your 3bet preflop. For certain, you aren't happy to see that turn raise, but I don't think you can find a fold at these stakes tbh.
I would just play the same way of yours. People could have randoms stuff here and overplays
Also, I don't think you get raise often OTT but you get a ton of calls by hands that you beat.
Also, don't post hand results, because you will get somewhat biased comments even if users don't want to be
Dec. 10, 2018 | 4:31 p.m.
I like your thinking and I agree with you...
Probably I'm a bit too nitty and if I would x/r, I would only fire if I improve... that's why I'm leaning toward calling flop.
Question: let's say you x/r flop, do you plan to bet turn and river? Or x/f and overshove turn?
Dec. 10, 2018 | 4:28 p.m.
Disclaimer: I'm a 5bb/100 winner over a very large sample at NL25 but playing most exploitative and since I'm playing that low, I'm nowhere strong nor in theory and in practice.
I don't have to back up my claims, but I would in the future... I mean it is quite easy to find out how many times players in the pool bets big OTF and flop to a x/r.
Beside that, yeah, I understand that we cannot simply raise our nutted hands because villain can confortably fold 100% of the times, but I don't think this happens in practice. Players don't fold their overpairs here even if they know we raise only our sets, they just simply don't fold and find some way to justify a call.
"I know for certain he has a set, but meh, he could be bluffing, so I call"
Given this, I wouldn't balance really because I wouldn't get any folds from my semibluffs
But again, this is just a claimed made without data...
Dec. 10, 2018 | 4:24 p.m.
I prefer to check this hand and then bet with AT/KT so that we make sure that we are dominating when the fish also have top pairs
We would dominate their top pair hands often here so there's more incentive to bet.
Also, by checking you allow villain to put in some spots where you don't want to be and sometimes force you to fold the best hand.
I would prefer to bet 2 streets and then fold to a big river bet than, check and guess all the way down
Dec. 10, 2018 | 4:17 p.m.
This is underbluffed
You mentioned this quite a lot, I was thinking if you have some solid data to back up this. I mean, the brain isn't capable to understand frequencies and you could be mislead here...
OTF, I would bet 1/2
Dec. 10, 2018 | 4:15 p.m.
Dunno if we can size up actually... we would end up valueowining ourselves and get folds from hands that we beat but would call a smaller bet. As you said his range should be wider if we wouldn't bet big OTF, and we are targetting those hands beside the obvious Kx