Your GTOish range that gets here: ATs, 2 other full Tx (9 combos), 2 quadzillas, perhaps 20+ FD combos, a few more combos of floats with equity, a couple of combos of pocket pairs. Doesn't look that bad for villain.
Now would anyone with about 10 million plus hands like to do some population analysis to find out if this spot is under bluffed and under called to share with all the lurkers?
May 15, 2020 | 10:29 a.m.
I don't know the answer to your question but I was interested to see how limited the AIs bet size options in single raised pots were. The private solver Alex Millar uses solves for all bet sizes and it definitely isn't majority betting 50%
May 6, 2020 | 7:39 a.m.
It's a stars skin now.
May 1, 2020 | 6:26 p.m.
johnmorgan No business yet, just learning what I can :)
May 1, 2020 | 2 p.m.
Nice start, John. I am a Yorkshireman and interested in business startups too so if you ever want to post anything about that I would read. Good luck.
May 1, 2020 | 7:38 a.m.
Instead of preflop I would look at postflop spots. Overbets and 2/3 etc.
Let's say you opened 5bb pre as an extreme example. You are signalling a very narrow range regardless of your anonymity. How does that help you?
Preflop is boring :)
April 30, 2020 | 12:02 p.m.
crazyriver Yep. heat maps would make some things stick better in the mind, I am sure.
I was looking into "memory palace" techniques for a bit and how that might help with poker. Then you remember how big the game tree is and how many flop subsets there are, positions etc. There's a reason "memory athletes" didn't take over poker (or maybe they will if someone works out how to balance a simplified tree with memorization). A villain heat map is unlikely to spring to mind for many situations in poker (at least not in my non-MENSA brain) and so we rely on heuristics. I actually think its more useful to visualise our range in the moment and rely on heuristics/rules/statements for villains range, but I am open to corrections on that.
April 29, 2020 | 10:31 a.m.
- Create a Player report.
- Filters -> Expression Filters
- Filter Expression:
player.player_name != 'abc'
I didn't know about this. I've been using the all players report, a custom filter for BB Vs BTN and BTN Vs BB, a spreadsheet and a calculator. :)
From what I can tell it's actually harder to do population stuff in HM. You can't create a big alias and the player report doesn't have useful filters.
edit: in practice it appears to be just as slow as the all players report for my sample size :)
April 29, 2020 | 9:05 a.m.
My thoughts are that rake is awful but if it is offset by weak players it would be in a way that you can push strong hands for value and get plenty of action most of the time. I would use a standard 200bb range and adjust down a little bit based on action and open size, more linear 3bet ranges etc. Also if there is anything that looks like collusion or soft play, forget it.
April 29, 2020 | 8:20 a.m.
You don't have to bet larger when you are ahead in equity. You can bet larger when you are stronger at the top. If you know you are stronger at the top you can put some more hands in the "I have the nuts more often than you" bucket. You don't miss out on value by doing this. That big bet bucket is yours to put a range into.
April 28, 2020 | 2:34 p.m.
Right. So I am also building reports/filters to look at frequencies too (I am rusty at this). I am confident I am on the right track with recording the postflop spots where frequencies matter. So the next step is to infer some exploits. I am looking at single raised pots, button vs big blind.
April 28, 2020 | noon
I am doing some work on population analysis with PT4 and a spreadsheet (ugh, takes forever). I am trying to work out what inferences to make for certain population deviations from solver stats and I wondered is there anyone else doing similar work who would like to chat / fire a few ideas back and forth over email etc?
April 28, 2020 | 9:56 a.m.
I thought this would be a good thing to share with serious poker heads; a free course on mathematical thinking offered by Stanford. I have enrolled and hopefully will learn a thing or two.
April 23, 2020 | 11:07 a.m.
Personally I think the Zoom format is perfect for learning. Sit in until you run into a decision you are not sure about. Sit out and then use your learning tools to come up with a solution for next time. Sit back in and repeat.