betgo's avatar


65 points

Sorry for continuing this, but I took issue with betting 1/4 pot and taking it down being a reasonable result for trips because we want to do that with most of our range, which is air. Betting small represents a pp betting for value and protection. The first limper's range is traditionally weighted towards small pps and big pps. With air, you can bet representing a pp, or check and either give up or bluff later on representing trips. Technically, you should sometimes bet small with trips, so as not to be bluffed, but I am not sure if that is really necessary. You want your ranges to be reasonably balanced, but it is more important to play your actual hand most profitably. It is not correct that people will catch any unbalanced or exploitative play.

Dec. 9, 2018 | 9:29 p.m.

I saw this going over Sunday Million final tables. This is about minute 33. Shover is winning reg.Blinds 175K/350K/35K. UTG 3.0M, HJ 19.4M, CO 6.8M, BTN 4.8M, SB 15.3M, BB 8.8M. HJ raises to 700K, SB goes allin with AKs for 15.3M.

I don't think SB can 3-bet/call with AKs. I was wondering if flat calling may be better. If you flat call, it often goes 3-way, and you often will have to fold postflop. It is probably good for you if the BB squeezes, particularly shoves, but BB is random and probably won't do that often. The raiser is opening wide, but will occasionally call the shove with maybe QQ+. I was wondering if the shove was a good play.

Dec. 8, 2018 | 2:42 p.m.

This is a 4-way limped pot, and it isn't that easy for opponents to read what is meant by a check or even to exploit reads with other players in the pot.

We can have other holdings than trips or air, such as pps. Part of the purpose of checking is to allow opponents to catch something on a very dry board, not to look weak.

Not sure why we always have to represent a cheap bluff with trips. You could also sometimes check with air and then play strongly later in the hand representing slow played trips.

Dec. 7, 2018 | 6:42 a.m.

Yeh, I understand, but this GTO stuff is sort of new and I am used to looking to see how I can profit the most with trips on a dry board. I learned the old way to slow play a big hand on a dry board, not try to get everyone to fold because that is what you would do with a bluff. If checking as the first limper and then putting in money later is suspicious, then I see it. Maybe we should be thinking if we can be counter-exploited, rather automatically avoiding giving any information with whether we bet and our sizing. You aren't going to play the same way with trips and air if you are raised or on later streets, so I am not sure why you have to do the same thing with our whole range initially. The nature of the game is to try to trick people, not always play like a computer.

Dec. 6, 2018 | 9:56 p.m.

Around minute 3, mczhang has QcTc on a QsQh5c flop and bets 1/4 pot UTG. You indicate this is good for his range to take it down if no one has anything. On such a dry board wouldn't it be exploitatively better to check with his specific hand and hope someone catches something or bluffs?

Dec. 6, 2018 | 7:50 p.m.

Post | betgo posted in MTT: Bubble limp with BB almost allin

$15 rebuy. Prizes $400, $250, $150, $100. Blinds 2000/4000/500. HERO UTG 41K, CO 44K, BTN 125K, SB 11K, BB 6K before posting. BTN has been playing well and aggressive with stack. SB and BB appear to have been playing too tight. Holdem Resources says push 9%.

I actually had AKo and limped. What happened is the big stack shoved QJo, the BB called, and I called. The only way I don't cash is if the BB wins and BTN is 2nd. That is what happened, as BB made a straight with 53o and a J hit. However, there was about a 13% chance of that happening given their ranges.

I am pretty sure I had to call once I call and they both push. Obviously, I need to fold to a push from either bigger stack if the blinds both fold, but the BB isn't folding often. I guess I was thinking that if I push I drive out the big stack and the big stack is almost always pushing if folded to him and the SB is almost always pushing if folded to him. Then I saw the 3-way allin situation would make it difficult for me to bust. I also thought that if I pushed and either bigger stack calls, the BB would usually fold, which was bad for me. I figured that there was less chance of me busting if I only got allin 3-way against a much shorter stack.

Did the BTN misread the situation and not understand how strong I was likely to be? Did I misread how much the BTN should want to get me to fold, as continuing the bubble was very good for him?

Dec. 6, 2018 | 7:10 p.m.

In a video here, the author raised 52o to a limp from the SB/BTN HU at the final table. The SB was limping most hands. I assume the idea is that you don't want to r/f a hand with value when you can see a flop for free. However, it isn't a good spot playing that sort of hand OOP in a raised pot. Later he raised J7o in that situation. It seems to me that it would be better to raise some average hand like that, or maybe like 54s or 75s in that you would have a lot more playability if flat called. I know people have been doing that, raising absolute junk for at least 10 years.

Dec. 3, 2018 | 10:34 p.m.

I was watching a video here of Pokergo footage of a high stakes $750/$1500 limit mixed game with big name players. Hanson raised 52o from CO in LHE. Someone limped 9(73) in razz into several low cards with bad dead cards and then called 4 bets when it was jammed 4-ways. Someone else draw 2 on the 3rd draw 3-way in TD against a hand pat hand and a draw 1 on the 2nd draw.

I know in live poker a lot of people want to play hands, so play loose. Is this bad play that common? Do people do that sort of thing at the $2000/$4000 or whatever famous mixed Big Game at Bellagio? I am not going to play the kind of stakes at the video, but I am thinking of trying $200/400 or whatever mixed if just playing solidly will give you a significant edge.

Dec. 3, 2018 | 3:50 p.m.

That actually makes it scary, as it could be designed to look like a "misclick", in which case it is likely KK+.

Dec. 3, 2018 | 1:09 a.m.

About minute 18, we raise 52o over a limp from the SB. I realize this is a hand we don't lose much with if we fold to a 4-bet. However, maybe we should be 3-bet/folding somewhat more playable hands, as it is difficult playing this hand OOP postflop.

Dec. 2, 2018 | 6:36 p.m.

You wish you could play in the click it back reraise days, before, or both?

I didn't understand why people thought they couldn't call a 5-bet getting 7-1 or something because they didn't have initiative. Then they used to call flatting a 4 or more bet hooding.

I find it interesting that there has been a return to close to the reraise sizes of 2005 and before.

Dec. 1, 2018 | 10:26 p.m.

Wow, I haven't seen cards up footage of a live mixed cash game before. A lot of big names, but I am surprised on Doyle and Gus seem pre-boom, as play hasn't changed that much in these games compared with NLHE.

Good commentary, and it is interesting seeing some clear errors at that stakes pointed out. Wondered if the play at the mixed BIG GAME at Bellagio is this bad. Raise with 52o from CO. Limp call 4 bets with 973 in razz. Draw 2 on river 3-way against a pat hand in TD.

Dec. 1, 2018 | 10:22 p.m.

On the first hand, are you limp/calling or limp/3-betting with AJo?

Dec. 1, 2018 | 3:46 a.m.

Pre poker boom and early boom, the standard 3-bet size against one opponent was 3x raise, with a lot of variation in sizings. A few years ago very small sizings were standard with sometimes click it back 4 and 5 bets, folding to another click it back often. I notice that sizings have gone back up, with 3x more standard an 4x OOP. Is that because with solvers people have realized you can play hands without initiative, and they are flatting a lot more? Are there practical or theoretical reasons for the change or is it just fashion like oscillating clothing styles?

Dec. 1, 2018 | 2:03 a.m.

This is mislabeled. It is the $2100 high roller, not the WCOOP 2K. Buyin is similar, but different series.

Dec. 1, 2018 | 1:56 a.m.

I don't like the suggestion to raise/call A9o from the SB for 17xBB effective. The hand isn't going to play that well in a raised pot OOP. Open shove and limp/shove are both probably better.

Nov. 30, 2018 | 5 a.m.

As far as the long discussion of the Q5o fold, it is obviously bad because of pot odds, the SB's relatively weak range, and you have position. However, the long analysis seems irrelevant. It isn't about your pot odds compare to your chances of winning allin preflop, as you have three more streets to play.

Nov. 30, 2018 | 4:56 a.m.

Would be interested in a video or series going over certain flops, and solver recommendations on how to play various hands on them as raiser or caller. Am interested in recommendations, not detailed analysis.

Nov. 29, 2018 | 5:08 a.m.

I would be interested in recommendation on what hands to cbet on what boards and what hands to fold, call, or raise cbets. I see videos with all the long analysis, but I would be more interested in what hands it recommends to do what with on various flops. Is this information available or is it easy to obtain from solvers?

Nov. 29, 2018 | 5:04 a.m.

I would like to see more final tables with cards face up, either PokerStars and WSOP video.

I would also like to see more Pro View videos where there is a conversation between the reviewer and player, as in the Ryan Martin HeyMona series.

Nov. 28, 2018 | 3:01 p.m.

You 4b/fold KTo against the big stack on the final table bubble around minute 3. What is your 4b/call range? QQ+? Aren't you flatting the 3b or jamming with some strong hands? So is it relatively easy for him to shove, knowing you are mostly folding?

Nov. 27, 2018 | 4:44 p.m.

Pretty interesting line to overbet the turn for value and then check behind on the river when not that much has changed. Not sure if it was a brilliant play by a great player or a cash game player realizing the extent of the ICM issues and changing plan.

Nov. 26, 2018 | 5:44 a.m.

I don't think there is anything fishy about the 99 or the K9s fold. This chang is probably just a tight player or had good reads.

Nov. 23, 2018 | 3:41 p.m.

villain had KdQd so he turned the nut straight and 2nd nut flush draw. I was still 25% to win with 11 outs OTT. OTF, I was 78% to win, as all of his pair outs were no good. I ran some simulations, and I had so much equity as you said it seems good as played. Having nut no pair and pair draws in addition to the other draws is extremely strong. I think just calling the flop would be going wrong.

Nov. 23, 2018 | 7:32 a.m.

I know $EV is more complex, but adding the approximate chip value of the min cash gives a rough idea. You can't do or memorize more accurate calculations in game.

Yeh I thought it was pretty close between push, raise/fold, fold and maybe limp/reevaluate. That is why I posted it.

Nov. 22, 2018 | 11:51 p.m.

This post has been flagged as inappropriate

Nov. 22, 2018 | 5:16 p.m.

If you are not in the US, it should be easy to get practice playing low stakes SNGs and MTTSNGs. The Holdem Resources Nash calculator is good for looking at very short stack push/call spots. ICM calculations make overly tight recommendations.

Nov. 22, 2018 | 4:40 p.m.

I shoved, got called by AK and doubled up. I figure the mincash is worth about 23K chips, as one buyin is 10K chips, so you can add that to your loss when you get called and lose. I would also expect to be called tighter because I would be assumed to have a stronger range and short stacks don't want to bust.

I am probably raise/calling QQ+ and raise folding some hands. It is possible r/f would have been better, but I was concerned with getting messed with by big stacks.

Nov. 22, 2018 | 4:05 p.m.

Yeh, of course bluffing the flop or turn isn't GTO. It is exploitive because everyone doesn't play perfect GTO. However, there isn't that much difference between J9s and KQ in terms of being able to show it down unimproved 3-way for the win. It is a good bluffing spot because if you represent a pp or a pair of aces and no one has much they won't adjust enough and call down or play back. I don't agree with passing up good bluffing situations because we would be overbluffing too much of our range. It is more important to bluff where you represent something and it is difficult for opponents to continue. It is a mistake to blindly follow software in this situation, as with ICM and other software.

Nov. 21, 2018 | 12:43 p.m.

In the KQo 3-way hand around minute 10, the board comes low and it is checked to you in position. Then an ace hits and it is checked to you in position. Those both seem like good bluffing spots. You say you have too much showdown value, but you aren't going to be able to show down K-high for the win often.

With the 22 hand, his sizings look suspicious as what he had AA. It seems like you fell into an obvious trap.

Nov. 19, 2018 | 9:02 p.m.

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