I understand that the solver says to be large on double flush draw boards. However, there are many strong draws out there, and that is the main reason for betting big. Should we go crazy firing 2 huge bets on a really wet board when we only have a gutshot on the turn?
Since this is a 5-10-25 game, aren't they mostly regs, so how do you have such a big skill advantage that you can open almost any two cards?
Aug. 14, 2022 | 1:01 p.m.
In the first hand, the open with (89)3 in razz is definitely bad. Hellmuth has a 6 up in the bringin with half his stack in, so he is rarely folding HU, so you can't steal the antes or get the bringin to fold on 4th or 5th street. So it clearly loses chips to open with several players to act when you can't even steal.
This isn't high level strategy, but Hellmuth made some unbelievably bad plays, as he has done in NLHE tournaments. He doesn't play well technically. He seems very old school with skill at reads and being able to pwn amateurs early in tournament, and bluff etc. amateurs and grinder type pros playing for much higher effective stakes than they are used to late in tournaments.
May 30, 2022 | 1:57 a.m.
You mention several plays where Negreanu was raising light. That used to be standard play like in tournaments in NLHE, limit games, etc., particularly with a bigger stack, to steal the blinds and/or antes, as people would play too tight due to ICM, not being used to playing for that much money, etc.If they called, they might make tight folds on later streets or other mistakes. Maybe it is not good at this table at these stakes. However, there is method to the madness.
May 8, 2022 | 9:06 a.m.
Around minute 10, I thought the turn pot with air was strange. It seems like a pretty wet board with 2 flush draws. Aren't we going to be betting a lot with flush draws etc. and villain will have one of the flush draws often or otherwise connect. However, I can see how the solver would recommend bluffing with decent blockers to both flushes.
April 29, 2022 | 1 p.m.
To give more information on the hand I mentioned before, around minute 21 in 2-7TD, Tommy 3-bets with a snow after 2nd draw, and then bets, and then bets pat versus pat after 3rd draw. You mentioned that hero might indicate a rough draw check/calling and drawing 1, and maybe Tommy picked up on that. However, I wonder if Tommy should just fold his snow to the checkraise rather than put in 3 more bets on a bluff. The checkraise against a pat hand looks strong. Since hero is unlikely to have had a strong draw, he is unlikely to checkraise and draw 1.
April 18, 2022 | 2:10 a.m.
Around minute 7, I thought the pat with A24Q against d2 on the 2nd draw was awful. Yes, the pat may get him to fold more, but if he calls and draws 2, he is drawing thin. There just is not that many hands A24Q beats that A24 does not, so why not take 2 draws to try to improve.
Should Tommy just fold the snow after getting checkraised after 2nd draw?
April 11, 2022 | 3:04 p.m.
I like videos of bluffs, particularly something like a checkraise bluff rather than a barrel, and this did not disappoint.
I agree the bluff with the combo draw where the guy checked the flop and bet 1.5xpot OTT was just awful. When someone overbets into a small pot, whatever they have, it is rare that they are folding to a x/r.
March 28, 2022 | 1:50 a.m.
I can just ignore it, but I do not see the point of most of a live poker video being the solver analysis of a single hand. It seems fine to bring in solver issues, but the exact analysis does not seem so important when people are playing so far from GTO.
March 15, 2022 | 7:05 a.m.
In the Stud8 hand, (77)TT versus (JJ)39, you question the fold on 4th street. You may theoretically have equity to call down. However, if you call, you are likely to make incorrect calls or folds later on. If your opponent had just TT with 2 low cards or whatever, he could someones make correct folds knowing he was beat. Your hand is close to face up, whereas your opponent has a wide range. When you call facing open tens having bricked for low, it is likely you have a high hand that beats tens So I do not see how this is playable. If it was (JJ)34 with a low card on 4th, it is an easy call, as you would have more equity, and your hand would be misrepresented and much harder to read then if you call after bricking.
March 9, 2022 | 1:48 p.m.
People play nitty late in tournaments, but that fold of aces and a flush draw by Chen on 6th street was just terrible. He could have completed with an ace and still had no pair. He was 44% against the actual kings up. Of course he could be ahead or drawing dead.
Feb. 26, 2022 | 1:39 a.m.
Excellent video. The straggling is probably great to manipulate the table with a big skill advantage. However, I do not see how it theoretically loses 10% OTB and 20% UTG. You are throwing in dead money with a random hand. Under best play, you usually have to just fold the hand to a raise.
Playing loose against people playing junk hands may be good to maximize winnings per hour if you normally beat 10x the stakes. However, there does not seem anything wrong with playing solid against loose players, although you will be viewed as a nit.
Why is 5!/folding AKs better than flat calling the 4!?
Feb. 24, 2022 | 5:19 a.m.
On hand where you flat call with AQ, BB calls, and flop comes Ad8dA, you raise the flop to charge flush draws. UTG probably does not have that big a range advantage, but certainly is more likely to have AK. Would it be better to flat call and let him perhaps bluff the turn? cbets these days tend to be small, but the turn bet might be big. Not sure if the raise appears to be a bluff or semibluff often. You might also get more from a weaker ace by flat calling flop. Aside from the flush draw, this seems like a pretty dry way ahead or way behind flop.
Feb. 11, 2022 | 1:53 p.m.
About minute 38, you say raising 22 UTG is bad, but better than limping. In fact, you 3! light and it goes 5-ways to a flop. It is clearly very profitable to play 22 5-ways, even if there are some reverse implied odds of set over set. So folding a pp UTG would be bad and it is not clear to raising is better than limping. Limping leads to a smaller pot and multi-way more. It is not a good result for 22 to play the hand HU OOP. Of course you wouldn't play 22 UTG in a tough game, but I would look to almost always play any pp in games like this, unless I had reason to believe the pot would be HU.
Feb. 7, 2022 | 10:42 a.m.
You mention not being happy with the 1st hand where Coleman turns the straight with KT. I assume he was trying to induce a bluff on the turn and would have bet much bigger on the river if the backdoor flush did not hit. Seeing it cards up, it looks like he misses huge amounts of value. It seems better to bet, as Coleman has more chips and would be expected to bluff, and opponents would be hesitant to bluff. The high board also hits a lot of his opponent's range, so he may be able to call down.
Jan. 3, 2022 | 9:11 a.m.
The 7xB 3! sizing with AJo about minute 5 I guess is standard because we are OOP and it is early. I wonder, because you are picking up 4xBB and you lose 17.5xBB when you have to fold to a 4!. Is that sizing getting called often? Is AJo easy to play when you get flat called? I can see you would want to go large with JJ+/AK if you are getting called often. You are obviously may above BTN's range, but I wondered about the 3! and the sizing. It just looks strange, but I guess it is standard now.
Oct. 21, 2021 | 3:05 p.m.
minute 22, AJ cbet flop 3-way, x/c turn. Why did we not lead the river when we made 2 pair? The hand after that, why is Q8s a standard open from ep? It is unbelievable how much really donkish seeming play there is from opponents in a $25K buyin online tournament. Really good video.
Oct. 20, 2021 | 11:57 a.m.
At minute 24 in 27TD, you mention that you do not like Eveslage's raise with 876 after 2 draws. I also think Coleman's 3! with #3 is bad. Eveslage's could break a hand he would pat with and possible draw out. Eveslage could have occasionally have a #1 or #2, in which case the 3! costs Coleman 2 bets. Eveslage could also fold or fold on the river. It seems to make Coleman's hand to face up and get marginal value at too high a potential cost.
Oct. 13, 2021 | 10:12 a.m.
At about minute 7, you bluff raise the river and Alex 3!s very small with the 3rd nut flush. I would think it was an easy flat call. Was he trying to get thin value from a worse flush? I do not like reopening the action. Presumably he has to fold to a large 4!.
Around minute 42, you bet cbet 1/6 pot on AA2,r with A2, I would bet larger, expecting to be called by an ace. The tiny bet also does not build the pot much. You have the nuts on the flop, but are almost never going to have the nuts on the turn. You are only 65% against A*, 60% against many good A hands. That actually makes it a tricky situation, but you need to build the pot when clearly ahead. Maybe even pot the flop and turn for protection and value. You are not going to get much action if he does not have an ace anyway. However, it is dicier what to do on turn when any ace could now have a bigger boat.
Aug. 10, 2021 | 10:33 p.m.
About minute 23, you raise AQo from CO and get 3! from the SB. The flop comes A73, SB checks and you bet small. This flop favors the 3-bettor, and he can have AA/AK which you cannot. I can see that when he checks, he often has something and is looking to showdown, so we want value. However, I would rather let him maybe bluff the turn, and don't see many hands other than AQ you would want to bet small with on the flop.
June 9, 2021 | 8:53 a.m.
Minute 26, UTG limps and CO makes it 2.2xBB, perhaps unaware of the limp. You advocate flat calling with KK on the button. I don't think there will be that many light 3!s in a $3 tournament. You usually wind up playing it 3-5 ways.
April 6, 2021 | 11:24 a.m.
Yeh, I agree that it is standard to 3! a lot from the SB and not much from the BB. However, here the stack situation is so extreme that it is better not to build the pot even from the SB. You can play tight from the SB and only call. Sure you are getting PWNed in a way, but it doesn't matter as your main goal is to outlast the 2 tiny stacks, and you don't lose that much in expected chips by playing the way I suggest. It is a mistake to continue with standard approaches in an extreme ICM situation like this.
Dec. 30, 2020 | 1:39 p.m.
Around minute 1, when you 3! AKo, what do you do against a 4! or 4! shove? Should we be 3!betting the chip leader at all with these stacks? Should we have a tighter value 3! range than AK, as it would be easier to gii with AA/KK? I know the chipleader is raising light, but can you just play postflop against him? You can often just x/c postflop with AK, JJ etc. If he is aggressive, you can often win decent pots. I am not sure if we should be 3!ing at all against the big stack, as we don't really want to be building pots. The chip leader can apply more pressure to you in a bigger pot, so I am not crazy about bluff 3-bets
Dec. 24, 2020 | 8:02 p.m.
About minute 18, I like the turn jam with KJo. We have top pair and an OESD. The board is wet and it is unlikely he has pure bluffs. You want to get draws to call allin or fold and worse made hands and worse combinations of made hands and draws will call thinking you may have a draw.
Dec. 21, 2020 | 10:16 p.m.
In the 2nd hand about minute 4 where you both have AQ, should your opponent 3-bet the flop with TPGK and the nut flush draw? That seems like the old school play.
After 3-better AJ around minute 16 and making TPTK, could you cbet a little bigger and then push for a smaller percent of pot?
That folding AK TPTK seems weird given the odds you are getting and 2 flush draws missed.