bettercallsaul

9 points

I guess the spades thing in the last hand might be so because we don't block any of his bd f draws with which he floats the flop and misses (therefore can't call)
in general for a bluff opportunity we wanna block the combo that hit the runner runner and unblock those who miss, so it's the same principle that makes us bet the river with the 6 of clubs in our pocket, only potentiated by the unblocking effect
my 2c

April 6, 2020 | 4:01 p.m.

Thank you Pedro!
Your results are totally unrealistic as well, so now we can pacifically say that the stat is bugged, I guess. HM2's support keeps saying they think it is not bugged thou... (and I'm currently waiting for PT4 support opinion). Will post here PT4's response.
Ty again

Jan. 31, 2019 | 4:59 p.m.

also, Pedro, would you be gentle enough to bother checking your own results with those filters? in HM2 is "allin on turn or earlier = true" + "won or lost bbs is less than 15".
in PT4 is "hands went to showdown" AND "went allin" AND "amount won / lost BB between -15 and 15".
just to see whether you have unrealistic results as well or not.

Jan. 31, 2019 | 9:34 a.m.

yeah, I agree 100%, but if you look at the graphs or do the math with std deviation + sample, calculating the deviations from the mean, you'd also agree with me that the only other explanation for a run like that is that the room is rigged, and I am not really ready to believe that. we are talking pokerstars, not a random shady china site. infact I am pretty shocked at how nobody is getting seriosly freaked out about this, HM2's support included. should this results be correct, we would be in presence of an Ultimate Bet's level of fucked up situation.
in physics it's common knowledge that when a 7 sigma + event happens the most likely explanation behind it is that the model is wrong.

Jan. 31, 2019 | 9:28 a.m.

We need 32.2% on the turn call, not 47%.
Anyway I guess that when he is on that strong of a range he is seldomly folding any river, so we also have implied odds for at least a good percentage of his remaining stack, making the call slightly +ev.
But will it suck 70% of the times? Yes it will. :)
Personally I don't see how can you fold on the flop thou. GS + a bunch of BDs and even some pair equity vs AK plus position it's got to be a call. Also, when he's on AK and he misses turn he will check a lot as we are kind of Q heavy in our range.

Jan. 25, 2019 | 12:12 p.m.

Studying my late game in MTTs with HM2 I found a bug in a filter (totally unrealistic results for allins with lost or won bbs under 25, and beyond redic results with less than 15bbs, see pics in the links), so I asked HM2 support to fix the bug, but HM2 support says they think it is all ok in HM2 calculations for the filter (I also sent them my HHs and their results are the same).

So I tried with PT4 and - surprise surprise - results are exactly the same.

WTF? I made the math and it looks like my results are >10 sigma from the mean; i.e. (much) less likely than one in 400 BILLION runs.

This is NOT a whining post about the worst run in the universe. I just wanna know what's wrong in these numbers.

Here is how the graphs look like on HM2 and PT4. Can anyone help me understanding what am I not really understanding? Are your results with this filter totally off as well? It looks like a bug obv but how can HM2 and PT4 have the same exact bug? I guess there must be something that I am missing. Thank you guys

https://imgur.com/a/tClz9Vj

https://imgur.com/ZulFLOp

https://imgur.com/sm9dCsZ

Jan. 23, 2019 | 3:16 p.m.

At 31:10, top right table, you lose the KQ hand on the 55KJ5 board but we don't see what the other guy had, and you seem to forget about the hand. Did he really have aces? Can you please check that for us? (Of course it's aces, but what you think about his line on the river? What can he be scared of?You have very few 5s and at most only let's say one combo of JJ that doesn't 3bet pre).

April 1, 2018 | 5:47 p.m.

Hi Chris, I'm a huge fan of your thinking process, may the poker gods be always on your side. At 35:15 you fold without even giving it a thought the KQs from SB vs a CO standard open. Was that just an autopilot mistake, so to speak? If not, could you please elaborate why you elected to snap fold that? And also: would you just call there given the great playability of the suited KQ post or do you put in the occasional 3bet there? Mybe 3bet the offsuit and flat the suited combinations?
TY

April 1, 2018 | 10:05 a.m.

Hey, I'm really sorry, I got the timestamp totally wrong for some reasons. I meant the 66 hand at about 17:15.
Thank you very much!

March 31, 2018 | 4:29 p.m.

Yes, my question was about a possible check on the flop with KT in that situation. I can see how it is a clear bet thou on the turn.

March 31, 2018 | 7:53 a.m.

Also, at 14:30, what do we do on an A/K/J turn (but basically, when no 2/4/6 or 7 hits)? Do we give up? On a clubs I guess we still push, right?
Anyways, when called on the flop we have very few cards that allow us to continue, with 66 we don't block much and the guy's range is pretty strong having opened from UTG. So maybe we could choose a more playable hand for this move on the flop? (I'm asking because I really am struggling with playing low pairs in similar situations, not to question your game, obviously).
Ty

March 29, 2018 | 4:19 p.m.

Hey, T.J., thank you for your videos, always great contents.
At 10:40 you say that given the action on the turn we never have KT. But given that the flop kinda smashes the blinds' ranges, is it that bad to just check the flop with KT no BD?
Ty

March 29, 2018 | 3:45 p.m.

Oh, thank you very much for you message. Glad to hear you're ok!
GL with the cryptos :)
(And yes please do some more videos!)

March 8, 2018 | 10:48 a.m.

Post | bettercallsaul posted in Chatter: Is Akira Ohyama ok?

I've been watching with pleasure a lot of this guy's videos lately, and checking on his various accounts on SharkScope I noticed he played his last game in october 2017 - almost 5 months ago - and so I am sincerely wondering whether anything happened to him. Does anybody from RIO know?

P.s.: I don't personally know the guy, and this might seem weird, but frankly every time I find a coach that I really like, after many hours of his voice talking to me I kinda feel like I know the person and sometimes - more weirdly - that I sincerely care for the person... It is the case with Akira. Would love to hear that he's ok and simply getting a well deserved break from the madness of the grinding.

Thank you
BCS