Thanks for the feedback guys!
I went to analyze this in a solver and he should never check flop when he has a 33% size available. Even a sim with only a 50% size only has ~12% checking. So he's making a pretty large mistake there.
Anyway, something in his line and timing made me feel really bad about betting and I ended up checking behind. He had 55 for the flopped full house. I had another hand today where my intuition said not to bet the nut flush on the river and it turned out villain had quads.
I think I'm going to start tracking these intuition based deviations and see how reliable they are.
Oct. 1, 2020 | 5:12 a.m.
100bb effective -
Hero opens CO to 2.4bb w/ QThh
SB 3bets ~10bb
SB checks, Hero Checks
SB bets 11bb, Hero calls
SB checks, Hero ???
SB flop check is kinda suspect as I think this board should be cbet at very high frequency.
On turn he's likely betting all his flop traps and any air he elected to check. I think many players might even bet 66-TT here for value/protection. I figure I can call pretty much any bet short of a shove on river if I hit and be good against Ax, random Jx, and KK on heart rivers. My Q or T might even be good against 66-99 type stuff that he stabs on turn.
When he checks river I'm at a bit of a loss. On the one hand I'm very high up in my range here. On the other hand I do have a fair number of flushes on this river that most players auto-bet so this would be a good spot to go for a value checkraise with the ace high flush or some slowplayed full house. And I suspect more slowplays than most players have based on the flop check.
Thoughts on betting this river?
If we're not betting this admittedly great river, does this make my turn call a bad one?
Sept. 30, 2020 | 5:24 a.m.
Yeah there are likely many ~equilibria solutions. PIO and GTO+ use different algorithms. I wouldn't worry much about the differences though if I had access to both I would probably do some node locking to play the strategies against eachother and see how it turns out.
Sept. 30, 2020 | 2:36 a.m.
I like bet/call for 1/3. I think he continues with a lot of pairs and single club hands against this. I also think this sizing can induce against stuff like T9o with a club or JTo with a club assuming you think he limps any of those.
Sept. 29, 2020 | 4:38 a.m.
Equilibrium is checking 87% of your range on the turn. QQ in particular bets about 10% of the time.
I gave villain 2/3 and 1/3 options on turn. He prefers the 1/3 options against which QQ is almost pure call (~3% raise). Against the larger sizing QQ checkraises all in 20%
I think in reality regs don't bet river as often as equilibrium, don't find all the bluffs on turn, but will bet too often and too large with hands like 88-TT with a diamond. I think this pushes us to want to checkraise raise all in more frequently than in the equilibrium soltuion.
Against a smaller size on I'm looking to c/c c/c. I might even consider raising some rivers against a smallish size. I'm uncertain about this since in the sim the only sizing villain uses after the smaller turn size is all in.
Sept. 29, 2020 | 4:25 a.m.
It's a small sample size but the gap between his VPIP and PFR makes me think that he's going to have a tighter than normal 3betting range and possibly be a bit passive.
So given that my thought is to check back and see a free turn and maybe free river. With AK you block most of his folds and some of his slowplays. Much of his range I expect wants to see a flop like this and call it off so my inclination is to deny that.
Sept. 29, 2020 | 12:10 a.m.
Similar story for me. I was beating FTP rush 200/400 for something like 7ptbb/100 and starting to play some 5/10 before black Friday. Funnily enough, I was in a study group for some time with Marvin. Got back into poker this last few months during the pandemic.
Also funnily since Ryan mentioned it, in the study group we discussed the Easy Game book. Was just going back through old emails from the group and took a quick look at the book again and he's right it does still seem pretty applicable.
Avg reg has gotten better but games are still pretty good. Some stuff that I used to be able to get away with, aggro tilting and crazy preflop wars does not work well in today's games at least at small stakes.
I don't have book recommendations but the from the ground up series video series here is a solid start.
Sept. 27, 2020 | 6:17 a.m.
Calling is fine. At equilibrium the solver prefers larger sizing from your opponent at every point in the hand and you're still meant to get to showdown. Even if your opponent is tighter than equilibrium, his bet sizing is much smaller than equilibrium so it would be difficult to be making a significant mistake here.
At equilibrium you should be betting turn 75% of the time.
Vs a 1/3 bet on flop your opponent should be continuing 75%+ of his range that means virtually any pair, any flush draw, any straight draw, any gutshot, any single overcard with a heart, some backdoor draws, etc. So his range should still be quite wide and your Jx is good enough for value/protection betting with 1/3 sizing on turn at a high frequency.
Many of his peels connect with the J in some way too so AJcc is even a value shove on river fairly often.
Sept. 27, 2020 | 12:40 a.m.
You need to compare this to the EV of more standard smaller 4betting and consider what making this play means for the rest of your 4bet range which is very value heavy. I can pretty much guarantee that jamming AA here is not going to be the most +EV way to play it.
A smaller 4bet lets you bluff more cheaply, lets him bluff against the premium portion of your range, still folds a large chunk of his range pre, and sets you up with profitable cbetting opportunity postflop when he calls.
I keep saying this in threads - If you have a reasonable preflop strategy (pretty much any solver based chart), you're going to encounter extremely diminishing returns trying to work out stuff like this vs just shoring up your postflop play. Especially things like this which come up so infrequently. For example if you ISO here 25% and get 3bet 10% - we're already at a spot that comes up far less than 3% of the time.
Sept. 27, 2020 | 12:09 a.m.
Donk bets are pair heavy, not necessarily top pair heavy.
In my Bovada DB of about 75k hands. Donkbets from the blinds are TP+ at most 40% of the time and that's for the overbet and pot sizing.
Donk bet looks like about 33% TP+, 33% underpair through mid pair, 15% draw, and 18% air
Sept. 26, 2020 | 1 a.m.
The videos on the website are pretty good.
In run solver you go to the advanced tab, hit clear database, enter the number of flops to import from subset (I usually use 23 or 37), hit update ranges, then hit process database. Then when it's done I save from the File menu.
Play against the solution has the option to play a single flop or from the DB. Make sure you have that radio button set appropriately.
Sept. 23, 2020 | 7:42 p.m.
RaoulFlush it might be a little more complicated than I gave it credit for. It looks like it may actually be just fixed betsizing where at each node it uses the "next" unused sizing.
RunItTw1ce yeah 3b pots solve much faster in general because -
* Lower SPR means fewer branches of the game tree because there is no more decision making once all in
* Narrower ranges mean fewer permutations that need simulating
You also appear to be working with a single bet size at each node which reduces complexity. I typically have 2-3 sizes per street and 3bet pots take around 2 minutes to solve on my machine.
Sept. 23, 2020 | 7:39 p.m.
Yeah so it starts out the tree with every option occurring equally often. After inputting ranges and building the tree, you click "run solver" which will let you choose how precisely to solve, how many threads to use, some advanced stuff (the scripting is in here),and has the actual solve button.
Also in the Advanced part of tree building you can do "custom" betsizes where you'll enter something like 25,33,66,125 for IP flop and that will let you build a tree that has ALL those options available for that node.
Sept. 23, 2020 | 7:03 a.m.
GTO+ does all this scripting out of the box for under $100 + play against the solution.
RIT, you'll want scripting. Lots of common spots will take give or take 10 minutes to solve. If you don't have at least some of these pre-solved you're going to end up with really inefficient studying.
Sept. 23, 2020 | 2:46 a.m.
Don't worry about your red line. Worry about making correct decisions and move up in stakes as fast as you can.
Sept. 21, 2020 | 6:53 p.m.
You can definitely rent a machine in the cloud, install windows, then install GTO+ and run sims.
Sept. 20, 2020 | 7:25 p.m.
Both SPH and Monker are very not user friendly. I have SPH and can say it's absolutely not worth the money or the time you'll spend on it.
Even extremely simplified sims take 16GB RAM and many hours. The first sim I tried to run was what I would call quite simple and even that was going to need a TB of RAM. I simplified even further and got it down to ~16GB. And guess what, the results you get? Basically identical to that chart you already have.
While a solid preflop game is very important, publicly available charts get you well past the point of diminishing returns.
Spend your time and money on things that will meaningful impact your winrate - like postflop play.
Sept. 20, 2020 | 7:39 a.m.
I would suggest that your 4betting range is way too wide. Most opponents are probably squeezing a narrower range than that here. I think generally speaking you want to have a narrower range than what you're being 3bet by.
I'm guessing his squeezing range is something like KQs, AQs+, JJ+, TT 50% and maybe throw in an A5s or something for balance. And this may even be a little loose given the button has 50bb and he has to contend with you still.
Sept. 18, 2020 | 8:37 p.m.
Yeah this is how to beat fish.
Playing with river sims in general, when you node lock to have opponent call too wide on river, the counter strategy is to essentially never bluff and go thinner for value. It doesn't even take much overcalling to make all bluffing -EV either.
Sept. 17, 2020 | 11:18 p.m.
I think I go smaller both pre and on flop (maybe even checking back).
Preflop - his squeeze range isn't that wide and we want him to have a tough decision about continuing with AJs or KQs or whatever. So I'd probably make it something like 32bb
Flop - ranges are super narrow. Neither of you connect with this board. You have a slight edge in the strongest overpairs as he should ship AA and KK sometimes but he likely has more QQ and JJ than you. Getting stacks in over 2 streets will be very easy. Your hand doesn't need much protection as almost all of his hands have 2 outs though if he hits them he likely stacks you.
Given that, I think checking back is an option but if we bet it should be small, again to make it so he has a tough decision with JJ type hands.
I ran a couple sims and it seems play is very sensitive to preflop inputs. Though you should be betting 100% of the time. Sizes are mixed but the 50% size is used very frequently.
I think it boils down to how frequently you have AK combos. KK can become a fold on flop if you start flatting a lot with QQ/AK. It seems like you need both at about 50% frequency or more or else villain can pure fold KK to a bet.
This spot seems to highlight just how important it is to have bluffs in your range
Sept. 17, 2020 | 11:15 p.m.
These may be the bottom of pure call in a GTO strategy but it likely wouldn't take much of a deviation from opponent to make it -EV.
Given that the player who played the hands is Steffen Sontheimer, a winner at 500z and up and with ~14 mil in tournament cashes, it's pretty likely he has a strong understanding of what he's doing and has a reason behind it.
Assuming LOL THESE GUYS SUCK is a really closed minded attitude. You'd be better served trying to think less rigidly, inspect your own biases, and try to figure out under what conditions the deviation is the correct play.
Sept. 16, 2020 | 10:42 p.m.
Yeah I agree those hands should just call.
And as much as some spots are underbluffed by the pool, the pool can be very erratic. And in particular lots of players don't seem to understand relative hand value.