Justin Cereste's avatar

Justin Cereste

17 points

Post | Justin Cereste posted in MTT: Live Staking and ROI


Someone I play HU online at 5/10 offered to stake me for WSOP PLO mtt's and put the ball in my court to start the negotiations for the deal. I played NL mtt's online 4-5 years ago and won a bunch of Sundays. I understand ICM and did it by hand in excel. My winrate is 10-15bb at high stakes PLO online. What kind of deal is reasonable for a player like myself? I have experience short stacking PLO and do quite well with it. I have no idea what ROi's are like in live events. Any input is much appreciated.


March 10, 2020 | 5:01 a.m.

Post | Justin Cereste posted in PLO: A value bet question

There are spots coming up where I am wondering if I can get more value. I'm wanting to value bet my hand where they may not call with worse and their range is split between better hands that raise our vb or blocker bluffs. I ask this because I feel that certain players might be unbalanced and weighted more toward a blocker bluff with specific lines. It feels uncomfortable to push myself to vb here but I may be leaving $ on the table.

IE- We raise QQ78dd from the co and get flatted by the btn and bb. Flop is J23dd and it checks around. The turn is a 5d. The bb leads 1/3 or pot and we call, btn folds. The river is innocuous like an 8o and it checks to us. Certain regs might be more inclined to vb big flushes to get value from small flushes and straights or our occasional set. I think they are mostly left checking the river with give-ups or an A/K high blocker thinking my flushes will call a lead but could consider vb/folding river blanks.

June 7, 2019 | 3:25 p.m.

This did end up being a raise/call but it has the sb lead/calling and lead/folding some hands.

May 9, 2019 | 5:54 p.m.

Sometimes I play in a deep live game where we all ante a sb pf. People like to straddle the button occasionally and it makes the game play really weird. Players seem to mess up a lot when button straddles. Can it be correct for me to straddle as well? Any advice on basic adjustments to pf strategy are welcome.


March 30, 2019 | 3:41 p.m.

Im going to sim this in the next week if I can fit it on my machine. My guess is that we raise small but we shall find out.

March 30, 2019 | 3:38 p.m.

I flick it in pf but folding might be better...drawing the line at a 5/6 dangler and mostly 3-betting that combo.

March 20, 2019 | 5:57 p.m.

Post | Justin Cereste posted in Chatter: Looking for a 5 card coach

If anyone has winning results lets talk

Jan. 13, 2019 | 4:03 p.m.

This maybe is a flop r/f but I'm not sure. Otherwise I think it all looks good with turn check and river sizing. I mean we gotta bluff something and this hand is a rare combo plus it had so much equity so seems like one of our best candidates

Nov. 21, 2018 | 9:14 p.m.

looking back at this hand, I do a lot of things differently now. I cbet small, like 1/3 and I lean toward a small rr on flop given description of villain. As played man I don't think you have to call, but I still do. He is kinda crazy, your bet looks weak, and I expect him to keep going with boats on the turn to get value. Idk its still really close tho. Only reason I think about calling is cuz he is a nut and you bet small. But you do have enough stronger hands to let this one go.

Aug. 1, 2017 | 5:47 a.m.

that makes me rethink stuff a little, ty for pointing that out. Still think i jam trips w the A kicker vs described villain.

Dec. 4, 2016 | 5:42 p.m.

its not a line people bluff with but given your description this is the type of guy I call down here. Fwiw your hand is a better over limp than an iso, and I lean toward jamming flop since there are so many draws. Maybe I would flat that flop raise with 8T (maybe TT but not sure) or a weak 8 that has an fd as well. Tough hand tho...don't fault your fold.

Nov. 29, 2016 | 11:24 p.m.

congrats on score and thanks for the vid Phil. I have worked a bunch with some software recently and I think you're J7s jam was cool. The 69s hand definitely gave me something to think about but I still don't pass up on that edge unless we're table captain(running over Mighty w 3b's). As for HU, I think it is worth considering a limp strategy. I do limp a lil in mtt's with stuff that has good linear equity but doesn't want to get 3b when short, like 56s or 67s. But I do believe you over did it in the vid. It is hard to quantify how large our edges are post-flop with short-stacks and there's a ton to be said for winning without showdown. I might limp re-raise 22 33 44, and limp call 45s-89s then A6-A9s. The rest of my plan plan would be to raise/call, raise/fold and raise/jam. I did notice Fedor limp jams some sc's but it depends how ape the guy goes when you start limping.

Nov. 15, 2016 | 10:46 p.m.

thanks for posting that work..my gut was that we should call even K9s vs his range but maybe not

Nov. 15, 2016 | 10:23 p.m.

good insight. I've been using ICMizer2 and taking the quizzes a bunch on spots like these. Id have to go back and look at the stacks but if mighty covers the medium stacks by enough then I believe he can jam a ton of the deck but not 100% from EP. I think from the HJ onward, yes he can jam everything or close to it. The EP shoves might include hands as weak as Q2s.

Nov. 15, 2016 | 4:19 a.m.

really enjoying the live reviews at the large buy in ft's. Do you feel like your NL mtt game is sharp enough to cover some NL ft's? I'd like to see your commentary on those.

Aug. 29, 2016 | 9:57 p.m.

11-22% seems right, with a move toward 25-30 vs guys who min open hu and we are at least 65bb+. Why is it correct to 3b more with less bb's? I do agree we should switch the hands we 3b such as almost any AKQ*, or even a few more weaker AK hands, and our range should be more value heavy than linear. But if we get short enough that psr's after the flop are less than 2x or so, I think rundowns may not be profitable raise calls anymore in our opponents shoes if we keep our 3b% around 15%. I short-stack to start most games and I've been limp calling my rundowns(even some bad KK combos) vs guys 3betting less than 15% and then r/f and r/c the rest of my range. Any input on this?

Aug. 9, 2016 | 9:37 p.m.

I assume you are asking if AA should cbet TT6... I think when the board pair is in the middle of the deck like 88 or TT, that c betting AA gets dicey cuz its a chicken game as to who is more likely to have the trips. So you might see some more follow through from opponents instead of on a KK5 board where very few people will fling a turn or river barrel at you after a c/r.

In that TT6 hand Zach is right that 678 makes a nice c/r and if stacks allow, you can fire that turn plus river ai unimproved-reason being is that QQ-AA likely peels turn but almost all of his trips jam, and we block the flopped boat that could slow-play. Id likely check AA in that hand and b/3b bluff with QQ/JJ if we have a large psr.

Aug. 1, 2016 | 9:53 a.m.

Also KKT4 has a size-able equity advantage vs an MP range at Bovada

May 2, 2016 | 6:07 p.m.

4568 seems like a fold for sure, while re-popping the dub suited 4789 seems ok. In the cutoff though, with 3 left to go and the original opener, you're still going to get 4b 15% of the time by a top 4% hand. But you get to call...just something to think about. Some coverage with a double suited rundown seems fine for a game plan.

May 2, 2016 | 5:02 p.m.

Did you mention what you might bluff catch with in that spot instead of leading for value?

April 26, 2016 | 11:44 p.m.

and yes that bit about americas cardroom at the end is what made me think the report was bs

April 24, 2016 | 9:39 p.m.

thanks for sharing that...very comforting to know they have busted some people

April 24, 2016 | 9:37 p.m.

678, I agree as well on reviewing the spots and contacting customer support when stuff seems suspicious. But how do I decipher collusion vs bad play? Would I ever know if a few smart guys were cheating me or would my ev just be down in the long run with me scratching my head as to why I'm running badly. Someone could start 4balling double suited rundowns more often knowing that an A or 2 have been folded.

April 24, 2016 | 2:24 a.m.

Thanks for posting, but I read that previously and discussed with my coach...we think the article is nonsense and an effort to divert traffic to other US sites. But maybe its something to keep in mind. Don't get me wrong, the games are good at Bovada, I'm just a bit worried about pots going multi-way so often and seeing a ton of squeezes.

April 23, 2016 | 7:33 p.m.

nice vid, I enjoyed it!

What would you be looking for in terms of collusion on an anonymous site? For sure the games are softer here, but for anyone who is cheating, Bovada has to be the best place to do it. I do know of a former nose-bleeder who has access to at least 3-4 accounts on here...an infamous short stacker from back in the day.

April 22, 2016 | 7:09 p.m.

is it possible that we're supposed to trap w specific boats in that A35K5 spot instead of bluff catching KQ type stuff?

April 11, 2016 | 11:25 p.m.

Phil, why do you like to rasie/call 587Tss otb vs. limp calling it?

Feb. 4, 2016 | 6:18 p.m.

I'm entertaining the idea of limping QQ where the side-cards are 7 or lower. And possibly limping some KK hands otb as well. I would draw the cutoff for queens(which I raise) at QQ8[2-7]ss. At least when I raise/call a combo like the one previously mentioned, I'll have some easier stack offs when I flop a gutter vs a shorty.

In the At45 hand, when we construct a bluffing range, are you assuming that villain will c/f this texture as pfo? Also is he more likely to c/c or bet his TT/JJ hands? Perhaps it depends on the side-cards with his JJ/TT.

May 8, 2015 | 11:36 p.m.

maybe Ben stacks KK because it allows the other dudes to show up with QQ combos.

March 25, 2015 | 11:20 p.m.

Stacks are 1200 effective and villain is another young pro in the bb. It is the first time we have played together. Each of us thinks the other is competent.

The blinds are posted 5 and 5 and the 10 straddle is utg with the action starting utg+1. The game is 6 handed and it folds to me otb with 4c9s6s7d. I opted to limp the button because a lot of pots were going 4 way even when I potted it pf. Both of the blinds complete and the straddle checks his option. 

Flop: 6c9c9d


Action checks to me otb and I bet 15, sb folds, bb makes it 65, utg folds, I call. I think calling is slightly better because I doubt this kid c/r stacks A9 or a 9 with over-card kickers in a limped pot with 1.2k behind. Definitely interested in comments on the flop flat. FWIW, if I had over card kickers, Id use that hand to randomize the times I put in a re-raise here given that the psr is so large. That would at least give me some suckout/freeroll potential in a large pot.

Turn: Qd


bb checks, I bet 125, he makes it 360 very confidently and without much thought. In the last 2 years I have played live more often and am slowly reading into physical tells. I still think that ranges and math trump live reads, but that reads can be useful. I interpret his body language as him already having made up his mind that he was going to double c/r, not necessarily that he has the mortal nuts. Its tricky because he could perceive me to float the flop with a draw, but the timing and size of his turn c/r worries me. I doubt he is doing it with A9 on the turn(given his sizing and plethora of tricky rivers), so I guess were looking at the Q9, maybe 66(seems optimistic), the same hand, some weird QQ hand, and possibly a bluff?

I was really confused here and would like to hear comments on all streets. My impression of villain over the first few hours was that he was solid but slightly toward the more passive side.

July 19, 2013 | 7:32 a.m.

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