that's right, but I dont think thats a good enough reason to base our decision on :)
Jan. 11, 2016 | 2 p.m.
I dont think vilain is x/raising gutter in this spot. Probably gutter + fd, but not only gutter imo.
I agree with the second part of your post. If we 3bet hands like 55, we should also 3bet semi-bluff here to stay balanced. So, is it the case ? Do we really want to bet/3bet flop with like Axs in a 3ways pot OTF ? Personally, I wouldnt.. The fact that its 3ways OTF also make vilain's xr stronger..
Jan. 11, 2016 | 1:16 p.m.
AK, AA and maybe AQ isnt in his range because of his preflop cold call oop.
Jan. 8, 2016 | 11:58 p.m.
The problem I got with 3betting the flop in this situation is that hero always do it with his value range, so he isnt balanced at all. If we know for sure vilain is a fish and is gonna call the 3bet a lot, then its a good spot to 3bet because you exploit him and you dont risk being exploited yourself. Otherwise, I prefere playing a balanced range and just call the xr.
Jan. 8, 2016 | 6:19 p.m.
forget that comment, I think I like shoving turn :)
Jan. 8, 2016 | 5:52 p.m.
the more I think about it, the more I think shoving turn would be my play here. It would be a 13$ raise, so vilain would have to call like 10$ more to win 13+2,3+ 4,90 = 19,20. So, its almost 2 for 1 pot odds for vilain. I think he might ends up calling with his draws, which is what we want.
Jan. 8, 2016 | 5:52 p.m.
you'Re right about the turn raise. But I disagree about the river call, even with such great pot odds. Imo, he has the flushes almost everytime here. But there is always the spazz factor when you're against a fish. I just think we're not good 25% of the time here.
Jan. 8, 2016 | 5:49 p.m.
that was my first thought, but a shove would by like 13$ over his 2,30$. I think he can find a fold with a lot of his draws/worse hands if we do that.. This is why the stack sizes are so akwards..
Jan. 7, 2016 | 7:22 p.m.
what hands do you beat vs a donk shove river after he bet/call the turn ? to me, his range is pretty strong once the draws hit. Also, with a 2pairs hands or anything else that hero beats, vilain is more likely to just check because he is afraid of the straights and flushes OTR.
Jan. 7, 2016 | 7:20 p.m.
Vilain cold call a raise preflop so I would discount better set (and AK) from his range. Im pretty sure you are ahead of his range before the river. The thing that sucks the most to me is the stack size.. kind of an akward spot tbh.. With regular stack size, I'd raise shove turn turn for value instead of just min raising.
The river card really suck, but you are getting 3 to 1 on your call so its a really tough spot. Given is 50/32 stats (even with this small sample), I'd tend to think he is fishy and you have good pot odds on a call, but I dont think you're good 25% of the time. The only worse hands I can put him on is like AJ, KJ or a bluff (which would be surprising).
All that being said, I think its a fold!
Im wondering if a bigger turn raise wouldnt be better. You put more pressure on his draws and get more money in while you're ahead of his range. But you have the same problem once he hits the river.. good pot odds when you almost always loosing..
Jan. 7, 2016 | 7:18 p.m.
Your thought process make sens, but depending on the situation (this one is 3way with a 3bet cold caller preflop), vilain isnt gonna have that many flushes in is range after calling the 3bet pre once the board has the A of the flush. I dont see him having hands like QTs/JTs or even KT... I'd say the Ad here remove a lot of flushes combo, so KQs is definetely in his range, maybe KJs, but what else (after calling a 3bet preflop) ?
Jan. 7, 2016 | 4:14 p.m.
esso.g - that's exactly what I tried to explain in my long post. I feel like betting my entire range OTT is better than splitting it into a xc range and a betting range. There is more value in betting imo..At these limits, people are more likely to make a mistake by calling too much than by betting too much so the value is greater than usual when you valuebet your good hands.
Jan. 6, 2016 | 9:04 p.m.
you cant pot control as the next bet is probably AI given the stack size and the size of the pot. I dont think vilain will shove turn with a lot of worse hands, but I think he is more likely to call your shove with worse.
Ok, what Im gonna say is theoretical and assume that there is more money behing. Lets say there is enough money left for 2 more bets, that means you are checking the turn, but x/c turn and river if he bets ?? Since your range is face up as TPTK-set (because you bet the top of your range in this spot) , vilain can play you perfectly and only bet the top of his range. In that case, you should start to adjust and fold all your range vs his bet because you're never good. But again, vilain will adjust and start bluffing (because you always fold)and you'll start calling again (with him readjusting and betting only better hand). That why I said that if you have a checking range, it shouldnt be capped, but should include some flushes. The problem with that is the few flushes combos in your range probably doesnt allow you to have some combo in your turn betting range and have enough in your turn checking range.
All that being said, I think I'd have all those hands in my betting range and no continuation turn checking range at all.
Jan. 5, 2016 | 2:49 p.m.
would you all check turn on a flush card ?
The problem with that, imo, is that our range is face up when we do that and we are exploitable vs a good player. Maybe its not that big of a deal at 10nl, but by checking OTT, we would bet only with flushes (and bluffs to balance) and check all other good hands (with intention of folding at some point if vilain bet turn bet river ?!). This is too easy to play against. If we want to add strenght to our turn checking range on a flush card, we would need to start adding flushes in the range and I think we lost value.
Im just not sure if its better to bet (it would be a shove) ourself OTT and hope to get value vs lower set and TP TK/good kicker ..
Jan. 5, 2016 | 12:24 a.m.
As for the postflop play, I dont like it at all. I think you overthink this... Yes, vilain doesnt rep much, but if he is a reg, you should think about what YOU are representing too. What would be your range for bet/3betting in this spot ? If you have a couple of value hands to do it with, then you should also do it with some bluffs, but Im sure there is better hand than that to do it with.
Jan. 4, 2016 | 2:02 p.m.
I dont think this is a good board to bluff on. An A high flop with the J pairing the turn, even if you turned a FD, I dont think you have much fold equity in this spot.
I also dont think you represent much by 3barelling here. With a Jx hand, you would probably xb the flop for pot control so a trips is unlikely. Also, I dont think you would 3barel TPTK here, so the only thing I can see is like AJ, JJ and AA.
Jan. 3, 2016 | 5:30 p.m.
I'd also cbet this flop. There is draws and its 3ways, so you gotta protect your hand and get value. If one of the vilains has a good Ax hand, he will call a couple of bets for sure. JJ isnt folding either and even like QQ, Jx could call a bet if they are really fishy. Dont try to play fancy and cbet this for value !
Jan. 3, 2016 | 3:55 p.m.
the reason why I thought 3betting the flop was a good idea is because he doesnt have many value combo so his x/r is probably unbalanced and more weighted towards bluffs/semi-bluffs.. That being said, I thought having a wider 3betting range would be a good exploitative play vs his unbalanced range. But at the same time, he would need to have not only semi-bluff, but pure bluff because we'll need him to fold sometime to make our wider 3bet range worth it... and if he x/r draws in this spot, I dont think he is folding to the 3bet.
Also, I agree with the fact the 3betting would be better oop !
Jan. 2, 2016 | 4:22 p.m.
My first thought was to not have a 3betting range on the flop because of the "you make him fold worse hands and GII vs better hands" argument.. But since vilain isnt really repping a strong range (QQ, TT are probably 3betting pre), I think it might be good to have a 3bet bluffing range in that spot. I'd 3bet QT and some set combo for value + some draw/combo draw as a semi bluff in this spot.
I just dont see him with other value hands that 66 or bluffs, probably more semi-bluff..
Jan. 2, 2016 | 5:46 a.m.
I'd just vbet the river myslef in this spot.
As played, its a tough spot..I dont see many bluff in his range, but you need to be good only 33% of the time. I guess if he only has 1-2 bluff combos in his range, its a call given the pot odds.
Jan. 2, 2016 | 5:32 a.m.
I agree, but at the same time, there is like 4 combos that beat me (6 total, but he doesnt always have 99 in his range and doesnt always check back turn with KK) ... So, If we put 2 random spazz combo in his range (which I think is fair to assume at this stake), it become a call given the pot odds.
Dec. 8, 2015 | 10:50 p.m.